A very difficult thing for people to understand is how poker can have a practically constant curve over the long term, even though inside the tables we observe that absurd variance that exists in a tournament. That God help us, bad beat happening everywhere... The truth is that since the long term is a set of short term events, it is difficult for our brains to understand how the two things are connected. Scenarios that frustrate us directly affect our emotions and this clouds the brain's ability to interpret facts rationally. You see, the way in which mathematics manifests itself is curious. If we think that our chances of winning a top pair versus bottom pair situation three times in a row are the same as those of winning a coin flip (50%/50%), we can see more easily how lucky we are. we need to win a tournament. I see people talking about having to win a lot of disadvantages to win a tournament, but the hole is much lower. If we only win the most advantageous situations, combined in sequence, that makes us immensely lucky in the short term.
Along these lines, we need to lose a lot when we are favorites so that in a given tournament we can hold all of these scenarios, win a few more from the bottom, connect the boards when we play post-flop and then finally reach our biggest goal: victory.:angel: That's how math works flawlessly in the long run. It's no wonder that short-term graphics are seesaws, while long-term graphics present an accurate picture of how much that player prevails over his opponents.:icon_bigs This understanding also helps a lot in dealing with bad beats, as it will make you see each one of them as an investment that will lead to the long-awaited spike. As if it were a bank, with each bad beat suffered you accumulate credits. When your credits reach a certain balance, you finally stake the tournament. If you haven't accumulated a lot of bad beats, it's a sign that the spike isn't being built. Think about it and notice how your relationship with the game will harmonize and naturally you'll improve both in the way you play and in relating to the game's variance — which is pretty high in the short term. If you want to do an interesting exercise, you can check out the history of
hands you played in a tournament that you won. Count how many times you won an all-in preflop and how many you lost. You will clearly notice that the scale was off balance. To level this, you will have to lose a lot of all-ins in other tournaments. That's how math becomes perfect in the long run.
I think, Luck is an one from the other many necessary conditions at Poker...
