K
korbal29
Visionary
Bronze Level
cindymagaly
Rock Star
Bronze Level
It's complicated and depends on what you define as luck, personally for me poker is a game where the luck factor carries a large percentage of the victory, I define luck as winning a hand where you have everything to lose with a very low win % and it can happen in different ways, the opposing player disconnected, the opponent did not accept the bluff and let you win, that the cards on the table favor you giving you a little more value than the others, there is many forms which I consider as luck, that's why I say that luck influences too much in this game of strategy, deception and strong emotions.
Claudiunm
Legend
Platinum Level
You need both. Luck and Skill. The proportion of each will be decisive. The more skill, the less you depend on luck. The less skill, the more you will depend on luck. So I would say luck is important, but it's the skill that's essential.
M
Memphis legend
Enthusiast
Silver Level
Gamer 4455 gave you the best advice, and to your question, no way do you win a tournament without luck!! Playing good has to happen, but, without luck, without winning races, you can't win. I was fortunate to know Jack Keller. I think Jack won the wsop main event in 1984. About that win Jack told me he never had a greater run of cards on multiple days than that... Got to meet Jack when Lyle Berman gave him a piece of the Grand Casino in Tunica. Jack told me you can't win a tourney without SOME luck.
P86
Visionary
Bronze Level
I don't think it's possible you need running good in order to win an MTT or even a Sit&go specially mtt no matter how good you are you will find yourself in a flip situations 2 or 3 times minimum which you need to win. Also you ll find yourself behind in few hands and you need to hit outs I'm not saying you have to win them all but at least 80% of em and the ones you loose need to be against smaller stacks...
Ssssssnakes
Enthusiast
Silver Level
Rising blinds make luck a necessary feature
1) Every time you go all-in before the flop and most of the other times when you go all-in, you have roughly a coin flip situation.
2) Every time you avoid an all-in because you don't have the best hand possible, you lose an opportunity to level up in order to keep up with the blind level.
3) In order to get to the final table of an MMT with a total of some 300 hands, my guess is that you have to go all-in at least 6 times (2% of all hands) and 4 of them will be with risk.
This means that in an MMT with:
- average hands
- average opponents
- average blinds
- average luck
... you have roughly a 6% chance to reach the final table, no matter how talented you are.
The slower the blinds go up in this perspective, the better are your chances of winning.
1) Every time you go all-in before the flop and most of the other times when you go all-in, you have roughly a coin flip situation.
2) Every time you avoid an all-in because you don't have the best hand possible, you lose an opportunity to level up in order to keep up with the blind level.
3) In order to get to the final table of an MMT with a total of some 300 hands, my guess is that you have to go all-in at least 6 times (2% of all hands) and 4 of them will be with risk.
This means that in an MMT with:
- average hands
- average opponents
- average blinds
- average luck
... you have roughly a 6% chance to reach the final table, no matter how talented you are.
The slower the blinds go up in this perspective, the better are your chances of winning.
Z
Zirkzee
Rock Star
Silver Level
No it is not possible to win a tournament without luck. I am not a fan of tournament poker. Television has made tournament poker look glamorous and like a competition where skill prevails. However, the truth of the matter is that lucks plays a much larger factor in tournaments than in ring games. Think about this way: at a regular no-limit game, if you started with $ 2,000 what is the chance that you would end up with $ 2 million before the night was over? Zero. However, to win a tounament where awake player has 2k starting chips and 1,000 people enter, you would need to win two million in chips to win the tournament. Not an easy feat to do unless lady luck truly smiled upon that day!
PeLLeTTi
Rock Star
Silver Level
There is variance and discrepancy but you know, and I mean that you know, that over time everything balances out; you know you want donkeys to call all day, every day; even if one of the four outs comes out on the river and knocks you out of the tournament. From a psychological perspective I want to argue that any belief in luck is detrimental to your bankroll and your ability to play your "A" game.
