Duggs Deepstack thread

[duggs]

20 hands so I doubt he is playing back at me

 

[Cafeman]

100bb poker is easy... obv gii otf. As for a squillionbb poker... folding is obv out of the question, so I guess calling is probably OK right. Ummm turn, do we have the odds to call? Probs fold or ship.

 

[duggs]

I don't think he is ever folding turn, so call>shove on turn? But are either better than fold?

 

[JCgrind]

call > shove OTT, but 3b/stack flop!! why dont we wanna get it in on the flop wit that much equity vs this lemon?

 

[duggs]

Because we can't do it profitably if he only has sets, which is a pretty realistic range to assign

 

[JCgrind]

i think thats a nitball range to assign, and even so


(gave villain 55, 66, AK)

Board: Kd 5c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.297% 50.30% 00.00% 8963 0.00 { 8d7d }
Hand 1: 49.703% 49.70% 00.00%

excluded KK, and didnt include anybluffs (which is super unrealistic) and its still a flipball?

 

[JCgrind]

added a bunch of diamond combos

20,790 games 0.001 secs 20,790,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 5c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.086% 48.09% 00.00% 9997 0.00 { 8d7d }
Hand 1: 51.914% 51.91% 00.00% 10793 0.00 { 66-55, AKs, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KdQd, AKo }

 

[duggs]

including AK is hugely distortive, obv is he is raise/calling AK then sure i think we can gii. but i dont think he is, i think its KK/55/56/66. and even if its profitable, is it better than calling?

 

[ScottishMatt]

I'm with JC. I'd rather just GII OTF.

Not folding though.

 

[JCgrind]

including AK is hugely distortive, obv is he is raise/calling AK then sure i think we can gii. but i dont think he is, i think its KK/55/56/66. and even if its profitable, is it better than calling?

dont think any villain is raise/calling KK pre in deep games. dont like calling and giving up initiative. dont mind 3b/folding flop if you make 3b decent enough size bc im happy to narrow his range to sets if flop is 4b shoved, but callign still probably correct considering pot odds. if he flats a flop 3b, i prefer c/c'ing turns that dont improve us to avoid having villain shove over us and force folds

 

[duggs]

they are, I do it also aswell. Heaps of times i just dont have a 4bet range.

more importantly i think its KK at least as often as it is AK

 

[JCgrind]

they are, I do it also aswell. Heaps of times i just dont have a 4bet range.

more importantly i think its KK at least as often as it is AK

flatting 4bs w KK yeah, but 3bs... OOP... srsly? awks. does villain have a 4b range as far as you know, or did you have a lolsample size

 

[duggs]

yea I'm not so unsure what to do after we 3bet. but the decision of whether to 3bet flop or b/c is the tough one, kinda feel like 3betting flop is easiest way to play it but probably not optimal v villain

 

[duggs]

lol sample size, but his range is uber tight for raising flop. he clearly isnt a reg and is going to get scared in pots like this.

 

[redwards92]

but 3b/stack flop!! why dont we wanna get it in on the flop wit that much equity vs this lemon?

yeah this was my first impression pretty much get it in on flop

but i kind of skewed my thinking when I figured he just as easily spazz out on a flush draw here just as he would with 1pair/2pair and sets.

 

[JCgrind]

yeah this was my first impression pretty much get it in on flop

but i kind of skewed my thinking when I figured he just as easily spazz out on a flush draw here just as he would with 1pair/2pair and sets.

given that duggs blocks a ton of FDs, the hands he calls a 3b with that are diamonds is so narrow. inc KQ and AT+ all dd, duggs still a flip

 

[hackmeplz]

You're all comparing it to folding though, isn't our ev going to be way bigger by calling because we force our opponent to make mistakes later in the hand while we can play more or less perfectly?

 

[duggs]

^i like this

 

[redwards92]

given that duggs blocks a ton of FDs, the hands he calls a 3b with that are diamonds is so narrow. inc KQ and AT+ all dd, duggs still a flip

yeah i definitely added to many diamond combos then lol

 

[Matt Vaughan]

You're all comparing it to folding though, isn't our ev going to be way bigger by calling because we force our opponent to make mistakes later in the hand while we can play more or less perfectly?

Nailed it. Duggs and I did some math on it already as well... Well, I did the math and duggs watched.

Basically, even if we're doing fine equity-wise to stack, it's better to wait to put the money in - in particular, given the option on the turn to call or gii, we always want to call, because we can fold when we brick and gii when we hit. It's free EV. If villain is never folding at any point in the hand, we want to allow ourselves to play perfectly later on.

 

[redwards92]

makes sense assuming he gets it in anyway when we hit .

 

[Cafeman]

Calling turn is best?

 

[RamdeeBen]

Interesting hand. Not sure how much information can really be taken from 19 hands either. I like the flop call though as for turn, pretty gross and I've no idea on whats best.

I think I prefer shoving the turn as opposed to calling as it seems pretty ridiculous then folding 300bb river pot when clearly we miss lol because at least we might have some FE vs some two pair hands on the turn and it's not as if we can even turn our hand into a bluff on the river so we're left with x/c hope to hit and hope he pays us off or x/c and give up a 300bb pot on the river or just shove it in on the turn with some FE.

Problem is; unless he's completely bluffing which isn't likely, vs his nutted and semi bluff hands we're in a pretty terrible shape and it's going to be a reverse implied odds spot way more than not.

 

[duggs]

Calling turn is best?

He is talking about flop

 

[duggs]

I'm unsure about turn but I feel we have approximately 0 fold equity. So calling is strictly greater than folding, I don't know if folding turn is better tho.

Given flop call is better than than 3betting.

Then is this a bet/call fold or a bet/call call?


V a range of only sets gii on flop isn't profitable.