as for HHs;
1. i kinda wanna know his BTN 3b stat specifically cos i think that changes ranges a ton, but tbh i dont think it makes me play the hand any differently. i would however check in-game how BTN treats donk bets, since most people raise them IP regardless of cards, i feel like a half pot donk/3b could be better if we know he raises a large % of the time when donked into, but were probably not going to get raised enough to make that our std play.
i love your flop line though. ive found that x/r over a Cbet + call, and even just a position raise over Cbet + call generates tons of FE- so much so that ive started doing it in good spots regardless of my hand str.
raise def better than flatting and then watching as the turn goes check, check.
x/c flop and leading out turn regardless of whether you make your hand or not could be very interesting tho? thoughts? i feel like youd get just as much FE when you x/c flop and pot donk turn (obv donking less if we bink), as you would x/r the flop, and vils are sitting there with what should be a fast played monster being confused and shitting themselves so much that they will
only call, bc they think that if they raise, theyll only get called by better and will just end up valuetowning themselves.
2. i like it vs weak regs. but i feel like anyone whose either a) completely shit, or b) competent is going to have a hard time;
-being able to see past their own cards, and call with TPNK for infinite
-tank their timebank and level themselves into calling because they have such a hard time giving you credit for anything.
i have you on AJ/AK air, and KQhh/AKhh when we get to that river i think. its pretty twisted, but i think thats a really good run out to triple of AA too so you may get credit for that aswell.
like you say though, i like this 100 times more if youre holding that precious Kh.
the boards slightly too connected for me to believe you have sets (based on the sizing of your flop and turn bets) but yeah i think that, based on the very few stats i have on vils, this is going to be 1p hands and draws the vast majority of the time, so the river jam will get through plenty.
personally i bet flop, x/r turn, give up vs std villain, or bet flop, x/c turn, x/shove river vs aggros.
personally, i bet flop and check turn;
- if villain checks it back, i check river looking to x/r huge (if you dont make the OESD im happy to risk letting it check through)
- if villain bets turn (which imo they all do when you miss your Cbet), you x/r turn and set up shove river. <- pretty much my standard line w overpairs after 3bing OOP too.
3. is such a dream flop spot, but its definitely a bit worrying. i dont think you can just overcall on the flop though, because when you do, BTN is going to shit himself and x/f everything bar the nuts when you pile the turn, esp considering youre both 600bb deep. so ye, ray ray for sure.
@ aces2win
1. there isnt a turn, and regardless of what it is, were betting not checking.
2. most (and i mean pretty much all) villains have a Fold to Cbet OTF in 3b pot of like 30% here. so im really happy with duggs sizing, but given an aggro opponent, id probably want to go smaller if anything to induce raises (more FE when we 3b flop)
3. were 600bb deep- shoving the flop is retarded
soz tl'dr
