Duggs Deepstack thread

[RamdeeBen]

I'm unsure about turn but I feel we have approximately 0 fold equity. So calling is strictly greater than folding, I don't know if folding turn is better tho.

Given flop call is better than than 3betting.

Then is this a bet/call fold or a bet/call call?


V a range of only sets gii on flop isn't profitable.

If we have 0 FE on the turn; I'd opt for folding turn which seems crazy given our drawing hand but if we have no FE - then we can assume our hand is pretty much dead to the water or we're drawing to 6 clean outs as his nutted + semi bluffs all have us crushed. We have 2:1 odds to hit a 6 clean outs, but need more like 7:1 for a call to be profitable on turn?

 

[duggs]

But I highly doubt he has better flush draws all that often given his turn sizing and his line in general. Much more likely all of our outs are clean and we get paid on most of them, pairing outs wouldn't be clean tho

 

[RamdeeBen]

But I highly doubt he has better flush draws all that often given his turn sizing and his line in general. Much more likely all of our outs are clean and we get paid on most of them, pairing outs wouldn't be clean tho

So we're assuming; sets and all two pairs? So we're breakeven on calling the turn I guess.

Do you not think he's going to have a fair few AQd/AJd/ATd all other Axdd here and QJd which are going to be happy x/r flop, betting turn getting it all in?

 

[duggs]

I don't expect them to barrel turn or raise flop that frequently, small sample but shaping up a reg fishy.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

Calling turn is best?

Assuming we have implied odds to his stack when we hit, and we don't have FE vs. his range, then yes.

 

[duggs]

Approx cut off point for fold equity to make this a fold?

 

[Matt Vaughan]

Approx cut off point for fold equity to make this a fold?

On the turn you mean? We can't actually fold the turn. Risking 87bb to win 209bb, we only need to even get there 29% if he folds 100% when we hit, but bets 100% when we miss.

I actually did the EV calc too - took me a while cause I kept thinking I made a mistake. He needs to fold < 105% of the time for us to be able to fold. IE we don't need any river implied odds to call the turn, assuming our hand is good 100% of the time when we hit (we get there about 30%).

 

[duggs]

hmmm ok i called and folded on a 6 river. played it correctly then?

 

[Matt Vaughan]

Like I think it's fair to say he might not pay off 100%, but probably pays off on any of our non-FD outs. So that's already quite a big chunk of EV, given we're in a marginally +EV spot by calling the turn with no implied odds.

 

[JCgrind]

i ****ing love this thread

 

[duggs]

i ****ing love this thread

Yaaay, finished exams in 2 weeks so ill be more free then

 

[rdm4k]

@duggs: sry for bothering you mate but I'd like to know your opinion for the questions expressed in the post#7 in my challenge thread (https://www.cardschat.com/forum/pok...46/br-booster-challenge-rdm4k-thread-235843/).
U look like a pretty skilled player on the cash game so I'd love to have an advice from you.
Do you mind to help me put plz? tyty

obv req opened to anyone who may be interested to help

 

[duggs]

sure but the others in this thread are both better and more experienced than me

 

[Matt Vaughan]

That link is broken for me.

(Oh, go on, duggs. )

 

[Matt Vaughan]

(https://www.cardschat.com/forum/pok...46/br-booster-challenge-rdm4k-thread-235843/).

You put the ) inside the URL - careful with that. This should work:

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/pok...-46/br-booster-challenge-rdm4k-thread-235843/

 

[rdm4k]

sure but the others in this thread are both better and more experienced than me

cheers

You put the ) inside the URL - careful with that. This should work:

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/pok...-46/br-booster-challenge-rdm4k-thread-235843/

thanks a lot

 

[duggs]

Last exam tomorrow boo yah!!!

 

[rdm4k]

Last exam tomorrow boo yah!!!

hey duggs, what's exam ??
I didnt read all the thread but randoms part of it...so sry if you arlready said that

 

[duggs]

its a test for university.

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

I think he's asking what exam you are doing.

 

[duggs]

oh, Im doing an Economics Masters, so I have already had advanced microeconomics and game theory, and the incredibly heavy advanced macroeconomics. All I have left in Mathematics 2 and I'm all done till mid jan

 

[duggs]

First session back +400 over bet a ton, generally ran well, will post some hands soon

 

[duggs]

PokerStars - $0.25 Ante $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 254.2 BB (VPIP: 39.44, PFR: 19.72, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 72)
BTN: 148.92 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
SB: 141.4 BB (VPIP: 11.54, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
BB: 155.24 BB (VPIP: 14.56, PFR: 11.65, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 106)
UTG: 250 BB (VPIP: 27.07, PFR: 20.69, 3Bet Preflop: 6.42, Hands: 859)
Hero (MP): 255.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, 6 players post ante of 0.2 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.6 BB) Hero has A:heart: A:club:

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN raises to 6 BB, fold, BB raises to 25 BB, Hero calls 22 BB, thoughts on what to do pre here?

 

[duggs]

PokerStars - $0.25 Ante $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 326.24 BB
SB: 256.36 BB (VPIP: 19.91, PFR: 15.74, 3Bet Preflop: 5.87, Hands: 1,422)
BB: 324.68 BB (VPIP: 30.82, PFR: 15.46, 3Bet Preflop: 7.58, Hands: 1,100)
UTG: 294.88 BB (VPIP: 34.38, PFR: 28.13, 3Bet Preflop: 18.18, Hands: 34)
CO: 202.24 BB (VPIP: 26.37, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 2.78, Hands: 92)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, 5 players post ante of 0.2 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has T:heart: J:diamond:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 9:diamond: J:heart: T:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets 4.8 BB, BB raises to 11 BB, Hero calls 6.2 BB

Turn: (29.4 BB, 2 players) T:club:
BB bets 16 BB, Hero raises to 54 BB, BB calls 38 BB

River: (137.4 BB, 2 players) 4:heart:
BB checks,

Thoughts on line in general and river bet sizing?

 

[baudib1]

AA hand -- I sort of want to just flat or jam pre.

JT hand -- like 125 BBs