In MTT online tournaments, lot of time you are playing with players who have no idea of pot odds or any other theory, they just bet all in and get lucky at times. How do you play against these players?
Variance is the difference between how much money you expect to win in the long run on average and the results you see in the short run. So, for example, if, according to your win rate, you expect to win an average of $ 500 per month, but end up losing $ 1000 instead, then this failure of yours is due to variance.Let's say you are playing heads-up against a crazy maniac who shoves every hand. Moreover, by pure chance or by magic, you are dealt pocket aces 5 times in a row. Obviously, you are pushing your pocket aces all 5 times preflop.Against any random hand, AA has an 85% chance of winning. Therefore, we expect to win roughly 4 of 5 of these preflop all-in, although ideally we would like to win every time. However, you ended up losing all 5 preflop all-ins against your opponent's five random hands. It seems unlikely, but still it happened. On average, you expected to win 4 out of 5 of these preflop all-ins, but due to variance, you never won. As you can see, the variance is the difference between the expected long-term results and the actual results in the short-term, in this case the “price” of the variance was not much, not a little, but as much as 4 buy-ins.