How much of poker is skill and how much is luck?

nerobs9

nerobs9

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There is a great quote from poker player Chris Ferguson:
"One day in poker is 90% luck and 10% skill. One year in poker consists of 10% luck and 90% skill."

I think that this is actually the case, since you may be lucky in a single hand, but only the distance will show how good you are at playing poker)
 
Pokerpoet2

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How long is a piece of string?

Luck and skill are both unmeasurable and impossible to define, there are a lot of numbers out there but in my opinion non can be proven mathematically,
I have had some luck in my life but when it comes down to Poker, I believe Luck plays a part, but Skill will always win in the long term.
 
Danaire72

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I have always thought and I have said that poker is 50% knowing how to play, 20% perseverance and 30% luck. Each percentage plays an important role, since you can know how to play a lot, but if you do not have that % of luck you will not win, and the % of perseverance is due to always being constant every day learning to play, discipline and perseverance will help you in your learning.
 
jordanbillie

jordanbillie

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100% skill

Once you are able to see beyond the micro results (1 MTT at a time) and view the big picture, you are able to transcend the illusion of luck.

"Luck" is just a word we agreed to use for short term variations in probability distribution. If I agree to go allin in a spot I win 80% of the time versus a different spot where I only win 40% of the time, I have used skillful means to put myself in the best position to win. The outcome doesn't matter, I used my skill to increase my ROI/win probability. Luck is literally an illusion of separating events into tiny segments.

Here is another example: Let's say I have a 2 friends who like to gamble on flipping a coin (heads or tails). Friend A will give me 1:1 odds on the coin flip (the true even odds), while Friend B will give me 2:1 odds (he's a crazy gambler!). If I choose to flip with friend A, a $10 bet will net me $10 in profit (if I win), while a flip with Friend B of that same $10 will net me $20 in profit (if I win). My skill rests is choosing the correct friend to flip with (obviously Friend B) and allowing the results to be (I've used skillful means to put myself in a long term profitable situation). Whether or not I win the flip is irrelevant, the "luck" is only an illusion of viewing the situation as 1 specific flip. In reality, I'm actually quite "lucky" to have a friend willing to give me 2:1 odds on a coinflip.

So back to poker, if we lose an 80/20 to get KO'd in an MTT we could tell ourselves we were "lucky" to have someone at the table willing to take a spot with terrible equity against us. The more and more this happens, the "luckier" we are! ;)
 
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arshuns

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I would very much like it to be 50-50. But alas. It seems to me that 30 percent are most likely for skill. Although if you value unpredictability in poker, that's even a good thing.
 
olejean

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I would very much like it to be 50-50. But alas. It seems to me that 30 percent are most likely for skill. Although if you value unpredictability in poker, that's even a good thing.
Agree with you! It is impossible to win a tournament without luck. And considering the peculiarities of the online poker with often strange "river" the luck should be more than 60%.
 
GarotoMaroto

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In normal tourneys i believe is somewhere between 75% skill and 25% luck,but in fact i really have no idea XD
Anyway skill its more important aways,if you playing good the all time and luck gives you a bad beat you still will be in your way to win
God bless
 
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