Caught the end of deal or no deal today, it got me thinking about some of the situations I see on the show and on how a poker player would approach the following scenarios.
Scenario 1.
Option A: The player can make a guess that 50% of the time will result in them winning $750 and 50% of the time result in them winning $4000
Option B: The player can make a guess that 50% of the time results in them winning $250 and 50% of the time results in them winning $4500
Scenario 2.
Option A: The player can make a guess that 50% of the time results in them winning $5000 and 50% of the time wins them $5500
Option B: The player makes a guess that 50% of the times results in winning $500 and 50% of the time results in a $10,000 win
Scenario 3.
Option A: The player can make a guess that results in winning $8000 half the time and $10,000 the other half
Option B: The player can make a guess that half the time wins them $3000 and the other half wins them $15000
In each case the players in question would take option B as far as I can tell they only took option B because they had a "feeling" about which case contained the bigger $ amount. Technically speaking the EV of each option is identical, the only difference is the variance. Its basically
gambling with the difference. I figure this to be a somewhat similar situation to what some poker players might get when they reach heads up in a MTT and have the option of taking a deal.
Which options would you take?