Big 3bet pre. I think that's where you should be finding your fold.
Fold pf, this is just such a gross hand to call with, even IP.
If he has TT do you actually think he's ch/f turn with it? I figured when he checked turn he'd have a ton of TT-QQ/AA-type hands along with some weaker Kx. I thought maybe he wouldn't barrel KQ but that other than that the only thing I lose to is slowplayed monsters in a spot where it's pretty retarded to be slowplaying monsters (on the turn anyway). And then to ch/shove if he had a monster is possibly even more retarded, since the only actual reason to slowplay a monster is to get more money out of my bluffs. Generally when I know the only time I lose is if they're being retarded and that I would have gone broke against their retarded range if they'd played it better, I have a hard time folding just because I know I'm still winning against them overall even if I make this bad decision. It's not a good thought process at all which is why I posted it to see if people really do agree it's a fold when he ch/shoves this turn.Turn bet is fine, we float this board a ton with gutshots and despite betting being a little unbalanced it doesn't matter if we think he can c/c with his TT or 9x or whatever or c/r as a bluff occasionally. That said his c/r range is still incredibly strong and I think I just fold.
Super polarized; KQ+/99 or backdoor draws, but with a %4 3bet he has very few semibluff combos. Only with a range as wide and silly as this is it a call:
Board: Kd 9s Kh 2h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.432% 55.57% 02.87% 422 21.75 { 99, AKs, AhQh, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KQs, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, AKo, KQo }
Hand 1: 41.568% 38.70% 02.87% 294 21.75 { KcJd }
Being a minraised/~3x 3bet pot adds significance to the hand imo. Regs generally play a lot more carefully with this psychological barrier of overestimating our SPR and don't generally get as sloppy IME.
I also think your turn bet is way too big. His range is a lot more polarized once he checks turn and we're trying to eke value from his marginal pairs and induce bluffs, not isolate the nut/semibluff part of his range. I bet like a little over half pot at most.
If he calls my turn bet the pot is $40.87 with $35.34 effective behind. Since his range in general is a lot of bluffcatchers when he checks the turn my range wants to put maximum pressure on him so I really want to be able to set up a river shove with my entire turn betting range. That's why I bet that sizing. As for the minr part you're probably right. I mean it's one of the biggest benefits to doing it in the first place and it's another reason why I think folding preflop just can't be correct. He's going to play his hand extremely face up and I'm going to be able to take advantage of that IP. That said if I'm going to donate him money when he always has the nuts maybe it is better to just fold pre lol.
The plan was definitely to bet turn shove river. Whether that was a good plan is another question.
Are you honestly trying to tell me that you think betting turn/shoving river is bad? I can see you saying that calling his ch/shove was bad but I find it hard to believe bet turn/shove river not being a profitable line, especially given that some people seem to think that he takes this cb flop ch/shove turn line with 100% of his value combos.
I posted it asking about the line after he ch/shoves. I guarantee if I hadn't posted the part about him ch/shoving on me 90% of this forum (probably the same people suggesting ch turn) would be saying bet turn shove river. I'm not trying to be arrogant but I'm positive against the average opponent checking turn here is going to be really bad, especially if we want to have any semblance of balance in our game. The part I was confused about (leaning towards fold given responses in this thread) was what to do the super rare times he ch/shoves on us.
raising 11% of their hands, and 3-betting 4%, which is a 99+/AQs+ I don't think you're fully thinking this through imho.
As the players you face get more sophisticated, checking the turn for delayed bluffs and for value become great lines. Right now you're facing the question, can I get 3 streets of value against TT-QQ/AA if I bet turn and jam river? The answer is no.
1. Of course, although I figure that % is something like 90%Here's why:
1) Only a % of the time those hands will call,
2) Add that in with the times you're behind
3) You can squeeze extra value a larger percentage of the time from more of their pocket pairs
4) AND allow your opponent to hit a second best hand like Ax
5) and not stack off with the worst of it...
Now if you think, and it may be completely correct, because 19/11 is kind of fishy, that you can absolutely get 3 streets, then bet the turn. I don't know anything else about this opponent other than what you offered, which isn't much.
If your ego will allow, you should poke into my thread here:
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/learning-poker-57/honeymoon-bust-219832/
I'm playing a decent amount of 50-200nl right now, so I'll be posting a lot of hands info as I go.
For the most part what you say makes sense, but I figured I'd discuss this. Do you play much FR? At FR a 4% 3b is actually about normal/maybe slightly low. I think his 3b against a button minr will be astronomically higher than his average 3b which includes UTG opens and such. I'd imagine the average reg who 3-bets 4% probably 3-bets between 7 and 10% in this spot.
I disagree.
1. Of course, although I figure that % is something like 90%
2. Sure, but I figure that number is actually really low, and if he ch/jams them rather than ch/c ch/c my jam that makes it even better for me if I can fold to the ch/jam.
3. Fair point, especially since there are no Ax gutters that can ch/c this turn, but I think there are very few times villain will be calling A high/2x if we ch turn bet river.
4. Valid as well, but most of his hands are going to have 3 outs to hit a hand to call at very best.
5. That's basically restating #2, but sure
Basically my logic is that I think his range is almost entirely composed of air and 9x/super-weak Kx/TT-QQ/AA. Assuming the average 19/11 will never take the cb/ch/bet river line in a 3b pot as a bluff, we can basically ignore the air. What does:
1. Our hand
2. Our range
want to do against that range? Now obviously we could debate just how many combos of AK/KQ/99 we can include and that's definitely relevant, but hopefully you can see where my thinking is pretty sound. Against a range of almost entirely bluffcatchers against our range, and I mentioned earlier but in a spot it's absolutely retarded to check AK/KQ/99 on the turn against our range, we definitely want to be betting on the big side with our entire range. Maybe with our specific hand we want to bet a bit smaller then a bit smaller than a shove on the river to get more calls, I'm not sure.
This was one of the first times I'd played 50nl when I was not drunk in forever (was 20-tabling off-peak so had to do 50-400nl to get enough tables) so I would hardly have any hands on most regs at that stake. I also don't cheat so don't have any datamined hands.
And I thank you for the help, I welcome any and all comments I know sometimes I can come off a bit arrogant that's just kind of my writing style I present why I did what I did and the reasons and if people can show me where my logic is flawed I can learn something and learn to play better. Also I asked people not on CC and although the majority of people said to probably just lol and fold I had several players that beat 1knl saying snapcall, so I'm going to disagree with your claim that any winning 200nl player is going to do anything but fold turn once we bet. I'm pretty convinced that if we're trying to play gto we should call but given that 50nl 19/11's are way more likely to be dumb and do this with nutted hands (you do agree his line is absolutely retarded right? I did call and he had AK) than to get out of line and do this with a ton of weak draws/air it's pretty likely to be a fold in practice.