From my experience there is a lot of bad players at freerolls and you will ship this tournaments harder because of big number of bad beats which happens usualy on these kind of tournaments
I'm not sure I completely followed...
But assuming I did, your statement is backed up by both data and math.
1) If you can find a study (since you might not have 1-3 years to conduct your own) it will show that "unfavorable hand-to-hand outcomes" happen at a higher frequency in these events.
2) From a mathematical/Economics perspective, this was already hypothesized by many of us well before Moneymaker was a World Champion...
The fun math/econ game to play to prove this to yourself (feel free to play for hours every week for years until you concur) is "
open face Hold'em." Very simple rules, yet only us true geeks are winners at the game long-term. Essentially just a Hold'em game, except that instead of dealing 9 or 10 pairs of hole cards face down, you deal them face up. Then whatever "per round bet size" everyone has agreed upon, you place on the hand of your choosing.
blah blah blah point is, when you play with amateurs, way too often they'll just all jump on the super premium hands and God forbid AA be dealt, all of them throw their money on it. Then I put my $ on 67s and obviously odds are in my favor with my $x able to win all their $$$$$$$$x, yet if their better hand holds up, they all split my $x. Eventually, they learn to not always pick the favorite and the game really starts. For me, though, it was always just about recording all outcomes and seeing how "short-term" any one session/tournament can be, with much variance and longshot winners.
