$$$March SNG Thread$$$

[Dwilius]

Getting a late start to the month, but I'll be following this thread. Just getting into sngos, finishing up reading moshman's sng strategy, will re-read. Starting out playing a couple $3.40's at a time. Will begin adding tables as I gain some confidence in what I'm doing, plan on moving to $5.50s which I'm easily rolled for after I'm up 15-20 buyins.

This isn't an stt hand, pretty generic but seemed a little awkward with stacksizes. CC game 14/30 players left so avg stack is just over 3k but 9 places pay like a larger sng, all other three left in the hand are ~20/10. Do I just shove here, or not enough money on the table to risk all my chips and only get action from flips or worse? I don't like raising 1/4 stack :s: ...am I still at a depth I should be raising normally over a limper?

CO: t4200
Hero (BTN): t2800
SB: t3000
BB: t2700

Blinds 100/200
Pre Flop:
3 folds.
CO calls t200
Hero is BTN with AQs...

 

[WiZZiM]

av stack is irrelevant... seems like an easy shove to me.. you have only 14bb's.. and theres loads of horrible players out there who like to limp/fold all there chips away... hell you might even get calls from worse hands...
its a shove for me.. if theres antes is even easier..

 

[Jillychemung]

M<10 and the big stack has limped = AI for me. 75%+ the big stack will fold with another 20% calling with a worse starting hand and the last 5% calling with a better starting hand.

 

[Dwilius]

Alright, I thought it was pretty standard shove, but wasn't sure after looking further into sngos. Maybe I was incorrectly comparing it to very similar stackize situations with 5 players left in a 9 player sng which didn't seem to be a clear shove.

While I agree I am getting a high % of folds, I strongly disagree that any of those villains are calling with a worse hand 4x as often as a better hand (though many will be flips). They had similar stats to me, and I'm not sure I'm calling with AJ/QK and definitely not worse in their positions vs. another tight opponent (unless s/he has been shoving alot in late position)

 

[cardplayer52]

It's easily a profitabl shove here. CC'rs are so straight foward as a whole I would think that a 2.5x raise to 500 and fold to a shove might even be a more profitable line. Not sure how often you would get flatted here which might be yukky. So I guess shoving here wouldn't ever be bad. Not sure how many worse hands call your shove maybe a random AJs or KQs but I'm sure this shove will fold-out most PPs 66-22.

 

[WurlyQ]

this is good to know but by the time it balances out one may as well just look at their monies graph as the sample by then will probably be enough to gauge a rough estimate of 'true' ROI and of course the larger the sample the less of an effect 'luck' has anyway.

In terms of application, one should be more worried about a downswing if their EV line drops with their actual profit line, especially in the medium term (say 500-1000 games). It obviously has its flaws, but by eliminating one variance factor, it tends to be more reliable than your actual profit line over certain sample sizes.

I primarily play DoNs which are among the least variance games in poker, have one of the highest ROI's for my limit, and still routinely have 500 game break-even stretches. This goes to show that true ROI does not converge until you have a much larger sample size. This number is somewhat arbitrary, but my guess is that for standard SnGs, you would need a sample size of somewhere around 4000 games to have anything remotely close to your true ROI by which time your true ROI has probably changed anyways. I'm pretty sure the EV line converges much faster than that.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

so ev graphs are useless but useful?

i'm being facetious of course, i know what you're saying. still i have a sample to work from of nearly 3k in which my style hasn't changed much so i'd say i'm +/- a few % from my 'true' ROI with a decent confidence level.

plus i have pt3 so i have no interest in getting HEM as well just to see how bad i run.

gonna write up something on effectively multi-tabling SNGs later, i think you guys will enjoy it.

 

[Debi]

gonna write up something on effectively multi-tabling SNGs later, i think you guys will enjoy it.

Look forward to this!!

And loving this thread this month guys - already up to 3 pages and last month didn't reach 3 til the end of the month.

 

[WiZZiM]

Look forward to this!!

And loving this thread this month guys - already up to 3 pages and last month didn't reach 3 til the end of the month.

thats because im here.. everyone disagrees with me hahaha

 

[Debi]

thats because im here.. everyone disagrees with me hahaha

Yea- but it has all been good natured and has generated some good discussion - so bring it on!

(besides anything is better than giving Dorkus credit for breathing life into our sng thread)

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

credit duly accepted and noted

Getting a late start to the month, but I'll be following this thread. Just getting into sngos, finishing up reading moshman's sng strategy, will re-read. Starting out playing a couple $3.40's at a time. Will begin adding tables as I gain some confidence in what I'm doing, plan on moving to $5.50s which I'm easily rolled for after I'm up 15-20 buyins.

This isn't an stt hand, pretty generic but seemed a little awkward with stacksizes. CC game 14/30 players left so avg stack is just over 3k but 9 places pay like a larger sng, all other three left in the hand are ~20/10. Do I just shove here, or not enough money on the table to risk all my chips and only get action from flips or worse? I don't like raising 1/4 stack :s: ...am I still at a depth I should be raising normally over a limper?

CO: t4200
Hero (BTN): t2800
SB: t3000
BB: t2700

Blinds 100/200
Pre Flop:
3 folds.
CO calls t200
Hero is BTN with AQs...

late to the party here but this is an ez shove.

think of it in terms of there being 500 chips in the pot and that equating to ~160/320 blinds. you'd have no problem shoving a 2.8k stack in with those blinds into three people, right? in fact it's even better than that because CO really rarely limps anything that beats us here and will fold to a shove way more often than not, so we're almost effectively shoving into two people.

 

[cardplayer52]

Look forward to this!!

And loving this thread this month guys - already up to 3 pages and last month didn't reach 3 til the end of the month.

+1 this thread has been awesome this month. Actual SNG strategy discussion and not just posts about bad beats and win/losses. I'm going to look through my HEM nd see if I can find some interesting hands to post and get some feed back.


---oh and after 4000 games you would know your true ROI within + or - 3.3% with a 95% confidence level if you used the HEM red line and + or - 5% if you didn't use it. There are two thing that are wrong about this though one your game may obviously change over a 4000 game stretch and two the base of players games over the 4000 game stretch obviously will constantly change.

 

[WurlyQ]

+1 this thread has been awesome this month. Actual SNG strategy discussion and not just posts about bad beats and win/losses. I'm going to look through my HEM nd see if I can find some interesting hands to post and get some feed back.


---oh and after 4000 games you would know your true ROI within + or - 3.3% with a 95% confidence level if you used the HEM red line and + or - 5% if you didn't use it. There are two thing that are wrong about this though one your game may obviously change over a 4000 game stretch and two the base of players games over the 4000 game stretch obviously will constantly change.

Source or reasoning/math behind this? Also, are we assuming standard 9 mans with a 50/30/20 prize distribution?

 

[thepokerkid123]

That same sentance bolded in the quote in the post above caught my attention.

You make it sound like the standard deviation is similar from player to player.

Not sure if SNGs "solved" elements would make that possible, I guess it would depend on the extent to which it's solved (and in turn, the amount of moves all winning players make the same).

 

[cardplayer52]

Source or reasoning/math behind this? Also, are we assuming standard 9 mans with a 50/30/20 prize distribution?

yes these are 9mans 50/30/20. i'm using a fomular i read on stoxpoker by pzhon one of there coaches that knows his math. the fomular given to me for the non-red line was observered ROI +- 320%/sqrt (where "n" is the number of games played) and the red line was +- 210%/sqrt. this had something to do with the standard deviation being 1.6% per game i think. not sure if these were turbos of not but figure the standard deviation of superturbos got to be higher than this.

 

[cardplayer52]

full tilt poker Game #19021111966: $5 + $0.50 Madness (144715137), Table 1 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:29:39 ET - 2010/03/06
Seat 1: atskel79 (2,900)
Seat 2: wally80 (3,650)
Seat 3: Dan J Saunders (1,515)
Seat 4: cardplayer52 (795)
Seat 5: CV Rick (2,090)
Seat 6: JUFF187 (1,010)
Seat 9: mathch1ck (1,540)
CV Rick posts the small blind of 20
JUFF187 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to cardplayer52 [Td Ad]
mathch1ck folds
atskel79 calls 40
wally80 calls 40
Dan J Saunders folds
cardplayer52???


the 1st guy has a vpip of over 40 and the other guy 30+. I got no idea what there calling range would be. something i read that dakota said about shoving wide over 2 limpers with a short stack got me thinking about this hand. i'm good with icm and wiz but not very good at putting villians on calling ranges. snap shove? or easy fold? and what type of ranges would you put the the villian on?

 

[thepokerkid123]

Fold and wait for a better spot, or the same spot with higher blinds.

Don't take that as solid advice, I'm making this up as I go but I don't like shoving AT 20bb deep when we can nit it up for a little while and assuming we don't pick up a monster before the blinds rise, when they do rise we get a whole bunch of better spots to shove than this.
I also don't like 3betting smaller with this hand because they're too loose, and I don't like calling because then the pot is tiny and you've pretty much got to go nuts on any A high flop (because of having a shorter than average stack and being against fish that like calling).

 

[gallopingael]

but figure the standard deviation of superturbos got to be higher than this.

Actually he mentions that it's lower in ST's and since more of the luck is of the AI variety that the luck adjustment is more effective.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Full Tilt Poker Game #19021111966: $5 + $0.50 Madness (144715137), Table 1 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:29:39 ET - 2010/03/06
Seat 1: atskel79 (2,900)
Seat 2: wally80 (3,650)
Seat 3: Dan J Saunders (1,515)
Seat 4: cardplayer52 (795)
Seat 5: CV Rick (2,090)
Seat 6: JUFF187 (1,010)
Seat 9: mathch1ck (1,540)
CV Rick posts the small blind of 20
JUFF187 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to cardplayer52 [Td Ad]
mathch1ck folds
atskel79 calls 40
wally80 calls 40
Dan J Saunders folds
cardplayer52???


the 1st guy has a vpip of over 40 and the other guy 30+. I got no idea what there calling range would be. something i read that dakota said about shoving wide over 2 limpers with a short stack got me thinking about this hand. i'm good with icm and wiz but not very good at putting villians on calling ranges. snap shove? or easy fold? and what type of ranges would you put the the villian on?

fold. we have an awkward stack size - shoving is committing too much but at the same time it would be very hard to raise/fold given the limpers (which means a 'standard' raise would be ~5BB. so we're left in a sort of annoying in-between zone). 15-20BB stacks are the most annoying to play in SNGs - anything more and you can sit back and relax while seizing happily on good steal/bubble/whatever opportunities knowing that you can raise/fold as long as effective stacks allow it and any less and you can play push/fold without making any major errors as long as you know vaguely what you're doing. with 15-20BBs if you standard raise you will occasionally get yourself into an awkward position where some bad player flats with a huge range and you have no idea what the heck to do postflop (especially if OOP) because a decent c-bet represents a significant portion of your stack.

with 10BB we can shove here, with, hmm maybe TT+/AQ+ we can shove, but you shouldn't be risking 20BB stacks in SNGs without being very confident you're ahead (or you can get folds, i guess).

villain's ranges are pretty irrelevant. shove the top 30% into pokerstove/SNGWiz/whatever, maybe take some weaker Kx/Qx hands out and add some lower suited connectors and you won't be far off, but like i said their ranges don't really matter.

 

[only_bridge]

Full Tilt Poker Game #19021111966: $5 + $0.50 Madness (144715137), Table 1 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:29:39 ET - 2010/03/06
Seat 1: atskel79 (2,900)
Seat 2: wally80 (3,650)
Seat 3: Dan J Saunders (1,515)
Seat 4: cardplayer52 (795)
Seat 5: CV Rick (2,090)
Seat 6: JUFF187 (1,010)
Seat 9: mathch1ck (1,540)
CV Rick posts the small blind of 20
JUFF187 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to cardplayer52 [Td Ad]
mathch1ck folds
atskel79 calls 40
wally80 calls 40
Dan J Saunders folds
cardplayer52???


the 1st guy has a vpip of over 40 and the other guy 30+. I got no idea what there calling range would be. something i read that dakota said about shoving wide over 2 limpers with a short stack got me thinking about this hand. i'm good with icm and wiz but not very good at putting villians on calling ranges. snap shove? or easy fold? and what type of ranges would you put the the villian on?

In my opinion its a good shove.
edit: Well Im not very good at ranges. What's the limpers pre-flop raise percentage? I think they 2nd limper probably have quite a weak hand, and thats what makes the all-in raise so powerful.
Original limper has to worry about your hand, and about the other guys hand.

 

[only_bridge]

fold. we have an awkward stack size - shoving is committing too much but at the same time it would be very hard to raise/fold given the limpers (which means a 'standard' raise would be ~5BB. so we're left in a sort of annoying in-between zone). 15-20BB stacks are the most annoying to play in SNGs - anything more and you can sit back and relax while seizing happily on good steal/bubble/whatever opportunities knowing that you can raise/fold as long as effective stacks allow it and any less and you can play push/fold without making any major errors as long as you know vaguely what you're doing. with 15-20BBs if you standard raise you will occasionally get yourself into an awkward position where some bad player flats with a huge range and you have no idea what the heck to do postflop (especially if OOP) because a decent c-bet represents a significant portion of your stack.

with 10BB we can shove here, with, hmm maybe TT+/AQ+ we can shove, but you shouldn't be risking 20BB stacks in SNGs without being very confident you're ahead (or you can get folds, i guess).

villain's ranges are pretty irrelevant. shove the top 30% into pokerstove/SNGWiz/whatever, maybe take some weaker Kx/Qx hands out and add some lower suited connectors and you won't be far off, but like i said their ranges don't really matter.

Seriously you just gave a lot of good arguments to shove here. 15-20bb's is an akward stack size, but it is the perfect stack size for pusing all-in in this situation.

 

[Pokertron3000]

Yeah but your pushing to win smaller blinds so your risking a lot for a few chips, at a later level I would push here but early on even with so few chips you can wait till the next level.

 

[Sean Pilgrim]

Woo Hoo!

 

[Sean Pilgrim]

Still in the red for life time stats (sharkscope) but On my way back up!

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Seriously you just gave a lot of good arguments to shove here. 15-20bb's is an akward stack size, but it is the perfect stack size for pusing all-in in this situation.

umm no it isn't - we're risking too much to win too little with a marginal hand.