$$$March SNG Thread$$$

[Dorkus Malorkus]

wait what if i'm a good player i should be winning more than my tourney chip expectancy in all-in pots? err i don't think it works like that - being a good/bad player doesn't mystically make my AK beat TT any more/less than expected when AIPF yo.

e: oh wow my total PT graph now shows a breakeven stretch of 2k games. still up overall (2700 games or so total, ~$500 profit) but that's pretty, umm, what's a suitable emoticon, maybe or

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Can I comment on an MTT in the SNG thread? Couldn't find an MTT one.

Just wanted to say that if the MrMuckets memorial game I played tonight is in any way representative of how CC tournament players play, then I can safely say that 90% of you are playing way too tight.

 

[OzExorcist]

- do you guys practice game selection at all? i mean if some guy opens 20 games i'll generally just wait or load some under him but i dunno if there's more i can do (bearing in mind these are $6 turbos and even a lot of the regs are bad)

Not really - I'll avoid games where there's a player on the list that I've noted is actually good but they're so few and far between that it really doesn't come up that often. Someone being registered for four or so games doesn't really sway me one way or another.

 

[cjatud2012]

Can I comment on an MTT in the SNG thread? Couldn't find an MTT one.

Just wanted to say that if the MrMuckets memorial game I played tonight is in any way representative of how CC tournament players play, then I can safely say that 90% of you are playing way too tight.

Most people were sitting out at our table, you definitely took advantage of that by stealing a lot. I tried 3-betting some of the times were on an obvious steal, which worked well. It's more fun when all nine people are at the table, but that's when I start losing

 

[only_bridge]

Can I comment on an MTT in the SNG thread? Couldn't find an MTT one.

Just wanted to say that if the MrMuckets memorial game I played tonight is in any way representative of how CC tournament players play, then I can safely say that 90% of you are playing way too tight.

Not only too tight, but too passive as well.
This is true for most poker players.
Such as peoples 3-betting ranges in the SnG's I played yesterday. (learnt that the hard way) If they 3-bet you they have like AA 90% of the time and KK the other 10% lol.

 

[WurlyQ]

The point was that it's not a true 0 point, your winrate can go negative. Proffits doubling still leaves you with a thin edge.

The point I was trying to make was that your edge is pretty small and the difference in winrate between two opponents isn't huge. If we know one of them is a huge fish and one is solid, then it's obviously different but without a lot of information poker is fairly even.
When we're dividing their influence on our winrate by the number of players in the SNG, table selection is going to add somewhere between nothing and a barely noticeable increase.

Like I said though, this definately isn't a voice of experiance.
I just throw random logic out there and see what gets shot down and what doesn't.

What do you mean a true 0 point? You mean like an absolute lowest level? If you have a negative effective winrate, then you are a losing player. If you are 0bb/100 player, you are effectively breaking even. In the numerical world, we have positives, the negatives, and a 0 in between.

In regards to the topic, yes, 1 reg will not make a ton of difference but playing a SnG with 5 other regs + 3 donkeys is very -EV compared to playing against 1 other reg and 1 donkey.

yup... it doesnt take into account icm... every chip has differing values... also it doesnt take into account when you raise and they fold.. or when someone raises you and you fold... so yes im saying its useless as it really wont give you an indication of if your playing good or bad... but if your a good player you should be running better than expected...

Running better than expected? The whole point of an EV line is that that is what we expect to happen given no other information. Therefore everyone should be running right along EV if you ignore the flaws of ICM.

wait what if i'm a good player i should be winning more than my tourney chip expectancy in all-in pots? err i don't think it works like that - being a good/bad player doesn't mystically make my AK beat TT any more/less than expected when AIPF yo.

e: oh wow my total PT graph now shows a breakeven stretch of 2k games. still up overall (2700 games or so total, ~$500 profit) but that's pretty, umm, what's a suitable emoticon, maybe or

As responded to above, any player should be running along EV over the long run in both $EV and chip EV. However the difference between these can be quite significant (the value of your last chip is much more significant than the value of, say, your 5000th chip) and the primary reason why looking at chip EV is nothing more than a guess of if you are running good or bad.

Can I comment on an MTT in the SNG thread? Couldn't find an MTT one.

Just wanted to say that if the MrMuckets memorial game I played tonight is in any way representative of how CC tournament players play, then I can safely say that 90% of you are playing way too tight.

This is very true. You will find few if any donkeys in CC but so many people are nit tight that they are extremely exploitable to the extent that they can be systematically picked apart with relatively low risk. The primary reason is that no one bluff resteals making a standard steal so profitable. Some people don't fold as much but many that call will fit or fold the flop making cbets enormously profitable and even if they hit, being OOP so often makes playing post flop extremely difficult. If you fold, you have 0 equity in a pot but if you don't, you will generally have some equity which leads to variance. In my opinion, this is why some people have sustained success in CC games.

 

[WiZZiM]

wait what if i'm a good player i should be winning more than my tourney chip expectancy in all-in pots? err i don't think it works like that - being a good/bad player doesn't mystically make my AK beat TT any more/less than expected when AIPF yo.

e: oh wow my total PT graph now shows a breakeven stretch of 2k games. still up overall (2700 games or so total, ~$500 profit) but that's pretty, umm, what's a suitable emoticon, maybe or

yes its true. you should be running better than expected over the long run.. like i said. this doesnt take into accoutn the times we jam sb v bb and we take down blinds and antes.. The HEM graph with the red ev line is probably more accurate.. as i believe it takes into account icm and the times when we pick up chips from stealing...

actual/expected trends up when your range is ahead of your opponents meaning:
1) You call appropriately or tight
2) You shove too tight
3) Your opponents call too wide

Consequently, actual/expected trends down when your range is behind of your opponents meaning:
1) You call too loose
2) You shove too wide
3) Your opponents call appropriately or tight


It's interesting, but not useful for getting any real information about how you're playing. I guess against really weak opponents at low levels it'd be bad if actual/expected was below zero, but against better opponents being below zero might be normal because when people call you with a tighter range you're going to be 1) shoving more and weaker hands and 2) even further behind the opponents range the times you do get called.

once you have a large enough sample size then your actual ROI is more accurate. things like sample size, variance, the inaccuracy of ICM in some spots, and the inability of ICM to take certain things into account, that's why I don't really care too much about it and advise others don't either for any meaningful sort of analysis. That is to say, don't get caught up in what your graph looks like and let that dictate changes to your game, just try to play every hand as best as you can.

 

[WurlyQ]

yes its true. you should be running better than expected over the long run.. like i said. this doesnt take into accoutn the times we jam sb v bb and we take down blinds and antes.. The HEM graph with the red ev line is probably more accurate.. as i believe it takes into account icm and the times when we pick up chips from stealing...

actual/expected trends up when your range is ahead of your opponents meaning:
1) You call appropriately or tight
2) You shove too tight
3) Your opponents call too wide

Consequently, actual/expected trends down when your range is behind of your opponents meaning:
1) You call too loose
2) You shove too wide
3) Your opponents call appropriately or tight


It's interesting, but not useful for getting any real information about how you're playing. I guess against really weak opponents at low levels it'd be bad if actual/expected was below zero, but against better opponents being below zero might be normal because when people call you with a tighter range you're going to be 1) shoving more and weaker hands and 2) even further behind the opponents range the times you do get called.

once you have a large enough sample size then your actual ROI is more accurate. things like sample size, variance, the inaccuracy of ICM in some spots, and the inability of ICM to take certain things into account, that's why I don't really care too much about it and advise others don't either for any meaningful sort of analysis. That is to say, don't get caught up in what your graph looks like and let that dictate changes to your game, just try to play every hand as best as you can.

What is your basis for saying the bolded part? From a chip EV perspective, each chip has the same weighting so how many chips you win should be equal to your chip EV over the long run. Whether you get it in ahead or behind and whether you shove or call is entirely irrelevant when you look at deviation from expectation. The reason is that when calculating chip EV, the pot and each players equity is all that chip expectation looks at. The ICM red line can be flawed due to ICM fallacies but chip expectation is very straight forward though I agree with you that it doesn't tell you anything meaningful. The chip EV line itself can trend up or down depending on circumstances but the deviation between actual chips won/lost and chip EV should converge over the long run.

 

[cardplayer52]

It's sngmadness on fulltilt. Every table is full of regs and I'm seeing $10 and $20 regs at the $5s. It's funny because the games seems so different than normal. Lots of players are super tight all the way through these games from low to high blinds. I'm guessing its good to be getting lots of hands on winning regs. I'll be sure to review how the good regs play I've already learned a ton just playing with them. I'm not expecting to do awesome this weekend but hopefully I can atleast break even.

 

[Pokertron3000]

Can I comment on an MTT in the SNG thread? Couldn't find an MTT one.

Just wanted to say that if the MrMuckets memorial game I played tonight is in any way representative of how CC tournament players play, then I can safely say that 90% of you are playing way too tight.

Hey I raised three hands in a row in that game!

Seriously though I am guilty of this espically in the middle game when I should be accumulating chips, sometimes I get there, usally when I am the big stack and can bully but playing the 18 mans I do play very passive some times sigh.

 

[Sean Pilgrim]

Can I comment on an MTT in the SNG thread? Couldn't find an MTT one.

Just wanted to say that if the MrMuckets memorial game I played tonight is in any way representative of how CC tournament players play, then I can safely say that 90% of you are playing way too tight.

+1 The Reason I play 22/28/3 @ CC games. Oops let the cat out of the bag.

Here's my lucktard graph so far this month.

 

[Sean Pilgrim]

I was wondering what you all run on your hud stats for sngs
Im running vpip/pfr%/ag f
flop-fold%/ attsteal/foldbb2steal/winning%

Im looking to start multitabling right now I start a 2nd game when the first is down to 5 players usually 80/160 100/200 in blinds. Running at 33.69 roi and itm at 50% over small sample of 126 games and I am hoping to increase hourly win rate by multitabling.Any input is mucho appreciato

This is what I use, DM has a good point though, you really only need a select few stats on your hud, i prefer several, and it really depends what you want to exploit in your opponents.

Here's my layout, I know it's on a cash table but, it's what I use for tourneys too. Also, a lot of the other info is readily available in the popups

 

[Sean Pilgrim]

Oh yeah, my goal is to bring my negative $300 mark on sharkscope back up to 0...

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

What is your basis for saying the bolded part? From a chip EV perspective, each chip has the same weighting so how many chips you win should be equal to your chip EV over the long run. Whether you get it in ahead or behind and whether you shove or call is entirely irrelevant when you look at deviation from expectation. The reason is that when calculating chip EV, the pot and each players equity is all that chip expectation looks at. The ICM red line can be flawed due to ICM fallacies but chip expectation is very straight forward though I agree with you that it doesn't tell you anything meaningful. The chip EV line itself can trend up or down depending on circumstances but the deviation between actual chips won/lost and chip EV should converge over the long run.

precisely.

i'm not sure whether there's some sort of semantics issue here, but i'm assuming "you should run better than expected" to mean with regards to the graph "your red line should be positive", which is clearly nonsense as our equity in all-in post is exactly what it is regardless of whether we're a winning or a losing player. perhaps instead he meant "your green line should be positive", which would be right but is not anything like the same as saying "you should run better than expected", as the green line is our expectancy.

 

[WiZZiM]

erm correct me if im wrong. but this is all in hands... doesnt mention preflop or postflop orwhere you happen to get it all in.. so it doesnt take into account our skill level.. so for example. we play a pot with i dunno ace jack and villain has Ace queen.. we for instance hit a jack and we get it all in post flop with villain making a stupid call... it calculates it from the perspective that AQ should win more often than AJ so our actual goes up and expected goes down.. doesn't the ev chart calculate our preflop equity and if im right thats what this chart is using...

i dont know if im correct here, but im pretty sure i am. it makes sense to me that we should be running better than expected. if were a winning player.....

 

[WiZZiM]

but anyway.. what i was trying to get at with the short post about the graphs.. is they are a waste of time.. if you want to look at them go for it.. as far as im concerned id rather spend time on sng wizard correcting shoves and what not.. looking at graphs constantly makes you too results orientated and can have detrimental impacts on your game... well thats what i think anyway//

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

yeah i know the graphs aren't conductive at all to learning i just posted them because they're funny and i'm taking a day or two off from playing.

and you're wrong, it calculates equity at the time when all the money goes in (which is flawed in itself of course as if someone shoves one chip into you on a flop it will calculate the equity from there and not pf). seeing as SNGs are largely a push/fold game it's not terrible but it's obviously not wholly accurate. in any case I don't think there's any way to reasonably gauge 'luck' in SNGs at the moment (not that it really matters).

 

[WiZZiM]

ok kool.. i wasnt sure...

 

[WurlyQ]

yeah i know the graphs aren't conductive at all to learning i just posted them because they're funny and i'm taking a day or two off from playing.

and you're wrong, it calculates equity at the time when all the money goes in (which is flawed in itself of course as if someone shoves one chip into you on a flop it will calculate the equity from there and not pf). seeing as SNGs are largely a push/fold game it's not terrible but it's obviously not wholly accurate. in any case I don't think there's any way to reasonably gauge 'luck' in SNGs at the moment (not that it really matters).

This may not concern you if you don't have HEM but it may be an interesting read if you're interested in luck factors of SnGs. I don't trust it religiously but the HEM red line for SnGs is ICM adjusted and relatively accurate over the long run. The flaws it has should balance out in the long run though there are a couple factors that point toward a very good player doing better than their $EV line.

1. It doesn't look at EV until the action is dead (all but one person is all in). This comes primarily in two categories.
a. The first is during the early stages (deepstack play) where there is postflop play. If we get in half our stack with AA but get out-flopped and the chips go in on the flop when we are behind, our EV will be really bad despite getting most of our chips in good.
b. The second is co-op calls, or a shortstack getting called by more than one person where the action isn't dead when the shortstack goes all in. If a shortstack goes all in, gets called by numerous callers and the action is checked down until the river, the shortstack's EV will be 0 or 1 (they either won the hand and had 100% equity at the end, or lost the hand and had 0% equity) which is obviously incorrect.

2. It doesn't account for the seating distribution. Having position on a donkey should be +EV. A donkey having position on you that calls you when both of you have midstacks on the bubble really light is -EV. Having position on a reg that never misses shoves is -EV. A nit tight reg having position on you is +EV. This is random and will balance out in the long run.

3. It doesn't account for position (opportunity cost). If we are in the BTN, we are in a better position than being UTG because we are not about to lose money to the blinds. The shorter we are relative the blinds, the more significant this becomes.

4. It doesn't account for fold equity. Having a stack with fold equity is much more valuable than having a stack without fold equity. Maintaining fold equity is a skill.

5. It doesn't account for bubble situational chip distributions. This is similar to the fold equity point above, but there are situations that arise where we can shove wide due to remaining villains not being able to call wide due to the payout structure. Given a random holecard distribution, our equity is higher than ICM dictates. Being able to manipulate play so these situations arise is a skill.

 

[cardplayer52]

I'm not 100% on this but I don't think it counts hand thats you got the villian covered and you get them all in. I'm pretty sure it only account for hands where all of your chips go in the middle.

 

[zek]

Fewer tables would most likely have the opposite affect. Anyway - had a good month in January, Feb was negative but not horrible and March is off to a good start. I am sure - and my coach agrees after reviewing games and hands with me - that I just ran into some bad variance. There is really no need for me to go backwards just because I don't run good for a few weeks.

At some point I'd think having so many tables open means you are missing opportunities and not playing correctly/optimal. I think I read a mention about a cheat sheet chart you are using from another thread. Do you have some pre-programmed system of when to raise etc that doesn't take into account how the other players at the tables are playing? Just wondering what rules you follow when you have more than say 8 tournaments up and running at the same time.

 

[cardplayer52]

At some point I'd think having so many tables open means you are missing opportunities and not playing correctly/optimal. I think I read a mention about a cheat sheet chart you are using from another thread. Do you have some pre-programmed system of when to raise etc that doesn't take into account how the other players at the tables are playing? Just wondering what rules you follow when you have more than say 8 tournaments up and running at the same time.

I use a system for shoving as well. And no the chart doesn't take into account how the players are playing. That is up to me to do. I use the chart as a baseline and will adjust it either tighter or looser pending on how the players at the table are playing. I do agree adding table will decrease your ROI but it has to be by alot to make up for the extra volume you put in. I'd much rather play 9 tables at 5% ROI than 2 tables at 8% ROI.

 

[WurlyQ]

I'm not 100% on this but I don't think it counts hand thats you got the villian covered and you get them all in. I'm pretty sure it only account for hands where all of your chips go in the middle.

HEM counts these hands. I dont know about other programs.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

This may not concern you if you don't have HEM but it may be an interesting read if you're interested in luck factors of SnGs. I don't trust it religiously but the HEM red line for SnGs is ICM adjusted and relatively accurate over the long run. The flaws it has should balance out in the long run...

this is good to know but by the time it balances out one may as well just look at their monies graph as the sample by then will probably be enough to gauge a rough estimate of 'true' ROI and of course the larger the sample the less of an effect 'luck' has anyway.

 

[Debi]

At some point I'd think having so many tables open means you are missing opportunities and not playing correctly/optimal. I think I read a mention about a cheat sheet chart you are using from another thread. Do you have some pre-programmed system of when to raise etc that doesn't take into account how the other players at the tables are playing? Just wondering what rules you follow when you have more than say 8 tournaments up and running at the same time.

I use a system for shoving as well. And no the chart doesn't take into account how the players are playing. That is up to me to do. I use the chart as a baseline and will adjust it either tighter or looser pending on how the players at the table are playing. I do agree adding table will decrease your ROI but it has to be by alot to make up for the extra volume you put in. I'd much rather play 9 tables at 5% ROI than 2 tables at 8% ROI.

^^^^ See what Cardplayer said! I was going to respond with the exact same thing lol.