WSOP Hand History

[hott_estelle]

EASY fold. Why? Cause of what Estelle said. I really don't think you can find fault with her reasoning (nor do I think any of her posts were condescending in any way).

I will to try to sum it up for you:

AVOID MARGINAL SITUATIONS WHEN YOUR "M" IS HIGH.

Tournaments are NOT about maximizing your expected value at every opportunity, save it for the cash game. Your SURVIVAL is far more important here; risk:reward. 65% is no where near good enough here.

See a far more nuanced variation of this concept here.

Amazing, someone else posts exactly how I think.

Also, nice catch AG, I think I missed mentioning the cash game to tourney play difference.

In cash games, yes, I make this call no hesitation. In cash games you make a call when you think you have any possible edge, no matter how small the margin. Tourney play, this is not so at all.

I would have to call in this situation.
First of all I would stand up and shake the hands of the pros and say "Its nice to meet you all", then turn to the big guy and say "Good-luck" and shake his hand and push my chips in the middle.
I look at it this way, If the pros have all looked at their cards and had folded, there is a really good chance that both my cards are still live.

How do you come to that conclusion? It is the complete opposite of what you have stated. If you think that since all the pros looked at their cards, and folded, that they didn't have an A or a K you're wrong. Probably 90% of the pros out there (probably even closer to 100%) will lay down AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, ect, ect, ect, in this situation with no hesitation for all the reasons that I have mentioned above in my previous posts in this thread. They aren't going to risk their tourney life on a 65% edge against any random 2 cards at this stage in the ME, because of everything I have posted in my previous posts.

I won't try to convince you otherwise, on why you should fold, but I know that if one of your reasons for calling is what I bolded above about your cards being live, I wouldn't use that as one of your prime factors in making the call. It is an incorrect assessment of the situation.

 

[mischman]

In cash games, yes, I make this call no hesitation. In cash games you make a call when you think you have any possible edge, no matter how small the margin. Tourney play, this is not so at all.

Were playing $1/2NL live, we both have ~$400 Stacks. Your BB, im SB.
I push all in and before you make a move, i flip KhJh and show you., you look at Ad2d. You call that?

 

[hott_estelle]

Were playing $1/2NL live, we both have ~$400 Stacks. Your BB, im SB.
I push all in and before you make a move, i flip KhJh and show you., you look at Ad2d. You call that?

Assuming no one else is in the pot, and it's just me and you HU, yes.

 

[mischman]

Same situation only its $25/50(Buy is $5k) and we both have $50,000 stacks? Still call?

 

[hott_estelle]

Same situation only its $25/50(Buy is $5k) and we both have $50,000 stacks? Still call?

Misch my answer will not change.

First off, I only play at stakes that are always within my BR. I am way into BR management, and never stray away from this.

So, if I am playing at a $25/50 table, with a $50,000 stack, that means it is within my BR to do so, so I will be very comfortable.

Which means I will not be out of my element at all, and I won't be playing scared poker. So yes, still call.

Obv you don't understand why I'm saying this, but your OP situation and these 2 cash situations are not even close to the same situations at all. I'm not going to get into the specifics, unless you really want me to misch, but the examples you're giving me from the OP situation v. these 2 cash situations, are polar opposites. You can't approach tourney strategy with cash game strategy; you always have to adjust when playing tourneys and then going to cash, or vice versa.

So, to recap for you, the OP situation I make an easy fold---these 2 cash situations, I call.

 

[mischman]

Obv you don't understand why I'm saying this, but your OP situation and these 2 cash situations are not even close to the same situations at all. I'm not going to get into the specifics, unless you really want me to misch, but the examples you're giving me from the OP situation v. these 2 cash situations, are polar opposites. You can't approach tourney strategy with cash game strategy; you always have to adjust when playing either game.

So, to recap for you, the OP situation is an easy fold---these 2 cash situation, I call.

Ok, last question. Can you please tell me when/where i said that the cash game situation and the OP are all the same?

 

[riffpoker]

fold....the first rule in ANY MTT is survive the early rounds. Besides AK even suited is still a hand needs help ..even 22 is a slight favorite.

 

[hott_estelle]

Ok, last question. Can you please tell me when/where i said that the cash game situation and the OP are all the same?

You gave me an example, as if to insinuate that they were the same. If that wasn't your intention, then OK, I guess you never actually said it.

Either way, you kept giving me situations, where you somehow assumed that I would change my mind or something, or trying to prove to me that I wouldn't do what I stated??? The first situation, OK, maybe I get why you asked, you wanted to know, but the second question was pointless.

It was the exact same situation, with a slight change in numbers. What was I suppose to assume from that second question? It was redundant and unneeded. Obv my answer isn't going to change.

 

[mischman]

I just wanted to make sure you/everyone knows i never said that.

Infact, you were the one who mentioned Cash games first(you said you would call, fold MTT).

 

[hott_estelle]

I just wanted to make sure you/everyone knows i never said that.

Infact, you were the one who mentioned Cash games first(you said you would call, fold MTT).

Yes I said that, and I stand by it.

In a cash game, with a 65% edge I will call with no hesitation.

In your OP MTT situation, with a 65% edge (in the given situation) I will fold with no hesitation.

 

[mischman]

Yes I said that, and I stand by it.

In a cash game, with a 65% edge I will call with no hesitation.

In your OP MTT situation, with a 65% edge (in the given situation) I will fold with no hesitation.

Ok, i lied, one moe question.

KJS Vs A2S(assuming they are not both the same suit) is roughly 55% vs 45%. Will vary based on what calculator you use.

Thats the beside the point.

I think 89s vs 22 or something like that i think is the closest thing to 50-50 preflop. But say its 50-50(100% dead ever), you'll still call in both ring situations?

 

[hott_estelle]

Ok, i lied, one moe question.

KJS Vs A2S(assuming they are not both the same suit) is roughly 55% vs 45%. Will vary based on what calculator you use.

Thats the beside the point.

I think 89s vs 22 or something like that i think is the closest thing to 50-50 preflop. But say its 50-50(100% dead ever), you'll still call in both ring situations?

Assuming the hands are 50/50 exactly, with no edge whatsoever, then obv not.

No I wouldn't make that call. Why are you asking me that question? You know my answer, just look at the previous posts. You know that when I stated I would call with ANY EDGE, it means that I have an advantage. In the A2-s v. KJ-s type situations, I would have a 55/45 edge, ect, I will make the call. I will make the call with ANY EDGE.

If there is a situation where there is a dead even 50/50, there would be no edge, which means I obv would fold.

 

[mischman]

2 Oclock already, off to bed. Good Night all!

 

[aliengenius]

If there is a situation where there is a dead even 50/50, there would be no edge, which means I obv would fold.

While it technically would not matter regarding the call or not here, standard thinking would dictate that you reduce variance by folding.
Remember: the situations closest to 50/50 are subject to the greatest variance.

Estelle, let's you and I take our 40% ROI in SNGs and go play somewhere else ...

Seriously, anyone who does not (still) understand why this is a fold needs to reread HE's posts and figure it out. Opportunity to advance you knowledge of tournament play, don't say you were not warned...

 

[homerphobe]

WSOP

Since it's the world series and there are about 8000 players (or more?) in the damn thing these days, the first hand is a great time to start accumulating chips. You're likely to be a substantial favorite (2-1 or so) to win the hand, but with the shear number of players I'm a significant underdog to cash at all no matter how well I play. Also, the buyin wouldn't matter in the decision. If I put in $10,000 of my own money then I'd have to be sitting on a bankroll of a half million or so, and I'd have no trouble finding another tournament to play. And TV time doesn't matter because it's just a decision like any other at the poker table. Take the odds, likely double up early and give yourself a chance to cash in a big tournament.

 

[jayneseo]

Die!!! Thread DIE!!!!!!!

Might as well argue in the football vs football thread.

There is no "right" answer, just like in all poker situations.

 

[mrsnake3695]

It's funny but the call/fold votes are almost the same as the odds on winning the hand in this scenerio.

Of course there is no "right" answer to a question like this. Everyone is giving their opinions as to what they would do and why. I can see everyones point in if they would call or fold and it is an individual decision.

I expressed my opinion earlier but I would reiterate that at the wsop ME assuming 8000 players and 800 cash, there is no way I am one of the top 800 players in the tourney considering every good player in the world is there. I know I am not one of the top 800 players in the world. Knowing that, I know I need to take some chances to get chips to counter my disadvantage. I'm not talking about going in knowing I'm behind and hoping to get lucky or even calling coin flips when the situation doesn't dictate it. But If I believe I am 65% to win I am going to call this almost all the time. When I wouldn't is if I was say on the money or final table bubble and the pusher has me covered and I have enough to get to the next level with relative ease then I would probably fold. Of course in those circumstances I doubt if someone would push blind.

 

[Four Dogs]

While it technically would not matter regarding the call or not here, standard thinking would dictate that you reduce variance by folding.
Remember: the situations closest to 50/50 are subject to the greatest variance.

Estelle, let's you and I take our 40% ROI in SNGs and go play somewhere else ...

Seriously, anyone who does not (still) understand why this is a fold needs to reread HE's posts and figure it out. Opportunity to advance you knowledge of tournament play, don't say you were not warned...

I'll let Andy Bloch know.

 

[aliengenius]

I'll let Andy Bloch know.

Guarantee Bloch folds in this scenario.

 

[Four Dogs]

Guarantee Bloch folds in this scenario.

I'm pretty sure he'd call right down to 50%. Did you read my post from 6/11?

 

[aliengenius]

I'm pretty sure he'd call right down to 50%. Did you read my post from 6/11?

You pointed out the difference yourself:

"In his example the blinds are 50-100 and you both have $2000. For those who think this might be relevant, the opening blinds at the WSOP are 25-50 with $10,000 chip stacks, but I don't think he intends for that to matter in this rare situation."

Super high M vs. low M.

 

[Four Dogs]

I've seen some pretty compelling replies for both choices. Just wondering if any of those who say fold with a 2:1 advantage have read something somewhere to support this.

 

[F Paulsson]

Sklansky is extremely clear on this being a call in Tournament Poker for Advanced Players.

Edit: If we're referring to authority, that is.

 

[mischman]

This is the longest HA thread ever, ship it to the archive.

 

[aliengenius]

Sklansky is extremely clear on this being a call in Tournament Poker for Advanced Players.

Edit: If we're referring to authority, that is.

Citation please (?).

From TPfAP:

"Balancing your quest for extra EV and your quest for survival is a major factor in proper tournament strategy... some of those standard sidegame plays that you are used to making are not always correct at the tournament table."

and

""In this book, EV is mentioned frequently because it turns out that in a tournament it is not always right to choose the play with the slightly higher EV... it may well be right to choose the slightly smaller EV if that bet will win more often, especially if going broke keeps your from making more positive EV bets."

and

"It may seem that giving up a positive EV gamble can never be right. However, even from a purely mathematical standpoint, you sometimes should."

and

"So if a close decision involves a significant portion of your chips, you should avoid it...You would prefer to preserve chips to let your skill have time to do its work"

This is the longest HA thread ever, ship it to the archive.

I'll just give your standard answer: if you don't like it, don't play (stop reading/visiting the tread).