WSOP Hand History

[hott_estelle]

I have to follow this up with another question, then.

Every variable of the initial story is the same, with one very important exception: He limps preflop and you (for whatever reason) don't raise AK.

Now, the flop comes ace-high, giving you top pair, top kicker. He fumbles with his cards, you can't help but notice that he flopped a flush draw but no pair. He pushes all-in. Am I correct in assuming that you fold at this point?

This answer only applies when I absolutely know that he has a flush draw.

So first hand of M.E., guy limps in, I for some *godforsaken* reason limp in also and we're HU going to the flop. Our chipstacks are 10K, and blinds are 25/50. So I only have 50 invested into a pot of 100. Blind levels move up in what 100 mins or 120 mins, one or the other I believe, don't know it off the top of my head.

So, he has a flush draw off the flop, with no other draws and no pair. He has about 36% to hit his flush, with two cards to go.

With only 50 invested into the pot, with it being early on in tourney, with very comfortable blind structure for me, I make this fold. I don't want to gamble off all my chips--and yes I believe 65/35 is still a gamble--when my chipstack is what it is, blinds what they are, and the fact that I only have 50 invested into this pot, so if I know that he has a flush draw, I make this fold.

This answer is only for situations like the one you proposed FP, since people can't seem to understand that different plays should be made for different situations--even with the exact same hands. Obv, there will be situations where I make the call with AK, top pair, top kick against a flush draw--or essentially there will be situations where I make the call with 65/35 odds. But for this given situation, I would fold.

 

[Four Dogs]

You need to be more specific with your questions and situations, but I'll give it a go. If the SnG has a 10 minute blind structure (standard PS SnG blind levels), starting stacks 1500 chips, first hand the guy goes all in blind without looking at his hand, it depends on my own BR and stakes I play at the time. If we are saying that I have enough money to play the $10,000 SnG stakes, with a comfortable margin (as in the $10,000 stakes are about 5% of my BR) then yes I could make the call--but I don't think a fold in that situation itself is horrilble as well. But this all depends on feel. I normally hate putting all my chips in the middle preflop with just AK, and to do this on the first hand isn't the most ideal situation, even against any random hand. Against any random hand, I would preflop 10-10/JJ type of hand over AK.

Now, if the $10,000 SnG is not my normal stakes, I've never played at those stakes, and it is way out of my range in BR management, ect, and I only satellited in or something, then I probably don't play the SnG in the first place, but I probably still end up making the same decision if I did play the SnG.

I appreciate the well thought out response despite my analogy not being a carbon copy of the example given by Mischman in the original post. I guess I didn't understand that your reply was taylored to such a specific and rare occurance. But I guess there must have been enough similarities for you to have come to the same conclusion, to fold.

I'm still having a hard time following your logic, but unlike you I'm not shocked at your decision. I think the general consensus on this forum is that you're considers an above average player so I guess I'm going to have to retrace my own logic and see if and where it falls short. I wonder if you should have given FP's response the same consideration. E, while I'm always impressed with the depth of your responses they often carry with them an air of condescension. I may be a bomb tosser, but others here deserve a little more respect.

 

[hott_estelle]

I appreciate the well thought out response despite my analogy not being a carbon copy of the example given by Mischman in the original post. I guess I didn't understand that your reply was taylored to such a specific and rare occurance. But I guess there must have been enough similarities for you to have come to the same conclusion, to fold.

I'm still having a hard time following your logic, but unlike you I'm not shocked at your decision. I think the general consensus on this forum is that you're considers an above average player so I guess I'm going to have to retrace my own logic and see if and where it falls short. I wonder if you should have given FP's response the same consideration. E, while I'm always impressed with the depth of your responses they often carry with them an air of condescension. I may be a bomb tosser, but others here deserve a little more respect.

Reread my post. I actually said I would most likely call in the situation you presented if for some reason I was playing $10,000 SnGs that were for some reason within my BR because I became a millionaire somehow.

You need to be more specific with your questions and situations, but I'll give it a go. If the SnG has a 10 minute blind structure (standard PS SnG blind levels), starting stacks 1500 chips, first hand the guy goes all in blind without looking at his hand, it depends on my own BR and stakes I play at the time. If we are saying that I have enough money to play the $10,000 SnG stakes, with a comfortable margin (as in the $10,000 stakes are about 5% of my BR) then yes I could make the call--but I don't think a fold in that situation itself is horrilble as well. But this all depends on feel. I normally hate putting all my chips in the middle preflop with just AK, and to do this on the first hand isn't the most ideal situation, even against any random hand. Against any random hand, I would prefer preflop 10-10/JJ type of hand over AK.

And how does me being shocked have anything to do with me showing condescension. Shocked is another word for surprised, and are you trying to say that I shouldn't express my feelings when I'm surprised on a public forum? Now how does that make any sense at all?

And where was I disrespectful to anyone in this thread? Please point that out for me, because I don't remember being disrespectful to anyone in this thread.

 

[HartAttack3]

Just a quick random question here, does anyone think of what is in the pot before this push? Look I would love for this scenario to happen for me, but I just wouldnt call. This may sound stupid (here come the flames) but if it was ak suited I would definitely debate a call, and in the end probably call. If it was o/s, I fold everytime. Heres another random question for ya, you get k-q (probably 2 overcards and in this scenario the same thing as ak) do you still call? How about q-j? those are connecting overcards and with the qj at least you get a better straight draw. Those are all the same as ak as long as he doesnt have 1 of the 2 possible overcards (king or ace). Do you still call with your tournament life in the balance when the odds are the same?

I still say fold because I have faith that my play with better odds and cards will give me chips. I just will not put everything I have into the pot when all I can win are the small meaningless blinds.

The question of what if it was later in the tourney was posted. Lets take this scenario and look at it. Blinds are now not 25/50 and we will say for the sake of argument that they are 250/500 with 50 ante (this is hypothetical and idk if its actually possible lol) that means the villain pushes his stack of 10000 in and the pot is now at 11250 and I have 9050. (correct math?) I think in a situation like this where blinds actually mean something I call, as long as he didnt look at his cards. My biggest thing with the whole OP is that the blinds are first level blinds. I get nothing added to the pot but my stack and his stack, and I am not putting it all on the line with the odds im getting. If its later in the tourney and I am getting a good chunk added by blinds then yea, I would take it because it is more profitable and therefore better pot odds. I am sure this post will get dissected and ripped to shreds but I dont care, I fold first hand small blinds every time.

Everyone plays poker differently, I only like to call all ins PF when I have a monster PP or I have a good read to tell me that I am ahead and should call. I generally like to see flops and make big decisions there. As one poster has in their sig (cant think of who) The flop is like the turning point in life, 60% of the hand is over, makes decisions much easier when you see what you have to work with.

 

[Four Dogs]

Getting a little OT. I'll PM you.

 

[hott_estelle]

Just a quick random question here, does anyone think of what is in the pot before this push? Look I would love for this scenario to happen for me, but I just wouldnt call. This may sound stupid (here come the flames) but if it was ak suited I would definitely debate a call, and in the end probably call. If it was o/s, I fold everytime.

I'm pretty sure everyone understands how much is in the pot. I mention it in a couple of my posts as well. That isn't what the people that would call are basing their decisions on. Most of the posters here that said they would call are basing their call on the fact that they are 65% favorites against a random hand and that they are getting a decent chance to double up early by calling the all-in being 65% favs preflop.

Heres another random question for ya, you get k-q (probably 2 overcards and in this scenario the same thing as ak) do you still call? How about q-j? those are connecting overcards and with the qj at least you get a better straight draw. Those are all the same as ak as long as he doesnt have 1 of the 2 possible overcards (king or ace). Do you still call with your tournament life in the balance when the odds are the same?

The KQ and QJ examples are completely irrelevant to this situation. KQ and QJ do not even come close to having the same value as AK does preflop against any random hand. I agree with you that this is a fold, but I don't agree with your rationale and argument for the fold.

KQ or QJ are not the same as AK, because you would not be getting even close to the same odds as AK.

 

[Four Dogs]

The KQ and QJ examples are completely irrelevant to this situation. KQ and QJ do not even come close to having the same value as AK does preflop against any random hand. I agree with you that this is a fold, but I don't agree with your rationale and argument for the fold.

KQ or QJ are not the same as AK, because you would not be getting even close to the same odds as AK.

Really? Do you know this for a fact or are you just trying to force a square peg into a round hole. This is from Poker Stove.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.942% 60.93% 01.02% 20447570220 340866024.00 { KQs, KQo }
Hand 1: 38.058% 37.04% 01.02% 12431856132 340866024.00 { random }

Whether or not 62% is anywhere close to 65% is a matter of opinion.

 

[hott_estelle]

Really? Do you know this for a fact or are you just trying to force a square peg into a round hole. This is from Poker Stove.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.942% 60.93% 01.02% 20447570220 340866024.00 { KQs, KQo }
Hand 1: 38.058% 37.04% 01.02% 12431856132 340866024.00 { random }

Whether or not 62% is anywhere close to 65% is a matter of opinion.

For this question, are you trying to say then that you make the similar call with just KQ or QJ?

What I was stating was that, while AK might be borderline, KQ or QJ not even close to a call. I'm sure if you present the same question of whether or not you make a similar call with KQ or QJ, all the people that said they would with AK would say they woudn't with KQ or QJ. That is what I was getting at with stating that KQ and QJ were not even close to AK.

Yes I think that 60/40 odds aren't close to 65/35 odds, when it comes to making this decision. There was no mention that KQ was suited, and I don't think the person who posted it meant it to be suited because it was suppose to emulate the OP. 60/40 v. 65/35 is a big disparity in this type of decision, IMO, with all your chips on the line if you make the call, and considering you only have 50 chips committed to the pot as well.

 

[mrsnake3695]

Forums are for exchanges of ideas and expressing different opinions. If everyone thought the same there would be no point at all. I for one haven't said "you are wrong" or "I'm right". What I have said (in more words than necessary probably) is that "this is what I would do and why". Everyone is entitled to their position and I for one am glad that there are some people here that will strongly state their position with reasonable and well thought out arguments. This is how we learn and everyone should keep an open mind.

I certainly understand why someone would not want to risk their tournament in this case. I simply say that for me it's worth the risk when I know I am most likely ahead. In the case of the wsop ME I may consider myself an above average player (that's debatable) or Estelle may be an above average player but in this tourney all the best players in the world are playing. There's no way either one of us are in the top 1000 players in this event. I'm going to take any edge I can get including some gambles (albet with the odds in my favor) to counteract the skill advantage or many of the players I will be facing. Don't say this is defeatist, I think its being realistic. You may be better than half the field but you need to beat 90% of the field to cash.

And the only reason I added different scenerios is because of the emphasis on it being the 1st hand in some of the replies. Tell you the truth I would rather go out in the first hand then in day 3 (still out of the money).

Another factor is your table image. If you fold it doesn't do anything one way or another. But if you call and win you've just shown the rest of the table that you are willing to risk you tourney when you think you have an edge. This will surely make others think twice when attempting a bluff against you which can only be good for you.

 

[Four Dogs]

For this question, are you trying to say then that you make the similar call with just KQ or QJ?

What I was stating was that, while AK might be borderline, KQ or QJ not even close to a call. I'm sure if you present the same question of whether or not you make a similar call with KQ or QJ, all the people that said they would with AK would say they woudn't with KQ or QJ. That is what I was getting at with stating that KQ and QJ were not even close to AK.

Yes I think that 60/40 odds aren't close to 65/35 odds, when it comes to making this decision. There was no mention that KQ was suited, and I don't think the person who posted it meant it to be suited because it was suppose to emulate the OP. 60/40 v. 65/35 is a big disparity in this type of decision, IMO, with all your chips on the line if you make the call, and considering you only have 50 chips committed to the pot as well.

There was no mention that it wasn't, nevertheless, I didn't assume it was. The 62% number is for all occurances of KQ, suited or otherwise. So yes, I still call. In my OP I discarded AK as too obv a call in favor of a genuine coinflip hand. So yes, as long as hairy guy has not looked at his cards I make the call with any better than average hand. I would think though that the less confident you are in your playing ability the more likely you should be to make the call, and the lower your standards need to be. Mine would be around Q8o, one pip better than a computer hand.

 

[HartAttack3]

For this question, are you trying to say then that you make the similar call with just KQ or QJ?

What I was stating was that, while AK might be borderline, KQ or QJ not even close to a call. I'm sure if you present the same question of whether or not you make a similar call with KQ or QJ, all the people that said they would with AK would say they woudn't with KQ or QJ. That is what I was getting at with stating that KQ and QJ were not even close to AK.

Yes I think that 60/40 odds aren't close to 65/35 odds, when it comes to making this decision. There was no mention that KQ was suited, and I don't think the person who posted it meant it to be suited because it was suppose to emulate the OP. 60/40 v. 65/35 is a big disparity in this type of decision, IMO, with all your chips on the line if you make the call, and considering you only have 50 chips committed to the pot as well.

I dont think this post is goin anywhere fast as everyone has stated their opinion and I just wanted to get back to the kq is no different than ak. Heres the thing tho, it is pretty much the same odds, and that is what we are basing our decisions on. Again, we have found that we agree to fold, but I have to say, that this is a very valid question. While it may not have the same "power ranking" or glamour look to it, it still is pretty much the same. You really cant just throw those out as irrelevant because against a random hand, the odds arent that much different and I dont think you can just dismiss them because they dont look as good. Just my 2 cents and not trying to start any fights, but I think its unfair of you to just dismiss them.

 

[mrsnake3695]

There was no mention that it wasn't, nevertheless, I didn't assume it was. The 62% number is for all occurances of KQ, suited or otherwise. So yes, I still call. In my OP I discarded AK as too obv a call in favor of a genuine coinflip hand. So yes, as long as hairy guy has not looked at his cards I make the call with any better than average hand. I would think though that the less confident you are in your playing ability the more likely you should be to make the call, and the lower your standards need to be. Mine would be around Q8o, one pip better than a computer hand.

Ok, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't call with Q-8 that's way too risky in the there is too much of a chance that you could be behind if villan has any hand with an A or K. With AK you have showdown value in that you can win without improving against a random hand. I wouldn't be that confident with Q-8 but everyone has diff risk tolerance. Even to me KQ is iffy. The key to the scenerio is that you have an Ace in your hand so villan can't have any non-paired hand that's ahead of you and a less than 1% chance that you are dominated.

 

[Four Dogs]

Ok, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't call with Q-8 that's way too risky in the there is too much of a chance that you could be behind if villan has any hand with an A or K. With AK you have showdown value in that you can win without improving against a random hand. I wouldn't be that confident with Q-8 but everyone has diff risk tolerance. Even to me KQ is iffy. The key to the scenerio is that you have an Ace in your hand so villan can't have any non-paired hand that's ahead of you and a less than 1% chance that you are dominated.

I feel in my heart that calling would be the most correct play for me, even down to Q8, but TBH, not sure I could actually do it at the WSOP. I'm not a pro, so entertainment would be a large part of the appeal. I'm not sure I'd be as upset if I played for 3 days and walked away empty handed as I would If I spent $10,000 for an experience that lasted all of 5 minutes. Not being in it entirely for the money allows me to indulge myself in some good ol' fashioned bad poker.

 

[stormswa]

ME buyin is only 10K storm.

.

what does the buy in have to do with being on the bubble to the final table, did you read What i was referencing?

read the question before I posted and my answer might make more sense.

you dont think there is a 100k jump to final table, I actully think it is more last year like million or something.


and on sidenote I need to stop working soo much look at all this stuff I missed.

 

[F Paulsson]

Obv, there will be situations where I make the call with AK, top pair, top kick against a flush draw--or essentially there will be situations where I make the call with 65/35 odds. But for this given situation, I would fold.

Fair enough. I wouldn't fold (preflop in Misch's or on the flop in my scenario) but I won't argue that point.

The reason I brought up my example is because I think a lot of people - clearly not you, Estelle - have some sort of mental roadblock when it comes to equity and "made hands." Preflop, they'd be happy to toss AK because it's only "ace-high" whereas they'd never in a million years lay down TPTK on a flop vs. a flushdraw because they have "top pair;" despite that in both cases, they're looking at 65% (give or take) chance to win.

By the way, just because I'd make the call with AK - and I would - I do see your point. There are clearly hands that are >50% to win against random hands that I wouldn't call with. There is, for instance, no way I'd call with Q9s despite being well over 50% to win. Weird, isn't it? I don't know exactly where my cut-off goes, but it's in the vicinity of AK/AQ/TT probably. And as much as I'd like to play the tough equity guy, I have to admit that I wouldn't want to be busted out of the ME in the first hand.

But AK is too much of an edge for me to fold. Q9s is too little for me to call. So it's somewhere in between, but probably a lot closer to AK than Q9s.

 

[joosebuck]

i try to cut off the hillbillys head with my cards

 

[edge-t]

I'd call. What's the hesitation? The guy hasn't even loked at his cards! FWIW, you can keep the chips, fold AK and may never be dealt a playable hand for the rest of the tournament. Plus we're probably pretty far from the money at this point of time.

Did I mention that you're on TV? CALL!!!

 

[jayneseo]

I'm wondering if it would it matter if you won your way via $1 sat vs paying the whole tourney out of pocket vs having a backer that you didn't have to pay back? Or doesn't matter how you got there financially, call (or fold) is the same either way?

 

[Four Dogs]

Sorry for reopening this can of worms, but I'm currently reading the newly released Full Tilt Poker Strategy Guide: Tournament Addition, and I came across something in the Andy Bloch NLH section that was so amazingly close to the situation in Mischmans OP that I felt I just had to follow-up.

In this lengthy but informative section of the book Andy Bloch has a subchapter on Playing against random hands, and his first example is nearly identical to our little scenerio. I'll summarize. This is Andy.

"Suppose your in the big blind. Everyone folds to the small blind who pushes all-in without looking at his cards. What hands can you call with?........Against two random cards, you need to call with any hand that beats a random hand 50 percent of the time, or a little less...." (taking into acount the blind money already in the pot) "The worst hands you would call with would be T-6s, J-4s, 9-7s and Q-4o."

In his example the blinds are 50-100 and you both have $2000. For those who think this might be relevant, the opening blinds at the WSOP are 25-50 with $10,000 chip stacks, but I don't think he intends for that to matter in this rare situation. He does provide a Jamb or Fold chart similar to the Sklansky-Chubukov rankings that does go into detail on what size chipstacks you need to Jamb or Fold with various hands from either the BB or the SB. I didn't intend for this to be a book review, but I'll recommend it anyway. Right up there with Sklansky and Millers No Limit Hold 'Em: Theory and Practice.

 

[RedKing]

I'd call. In no limit hold'em tournament, sooner or later, you gonna have to make a stand. What this means is that you have to make a decision to call or raise with a marginal hand that you think will give you more than 50% chance of winning. If you keep playing tight, you're not gonna get payoff in the long run. There're two things you need consider making the call, first, you're showing them that they cannot bluff you off a hand, secondly, you're telling them you're here to win the tournament, and you're willing to take risk. So now, when you have a strong hand, you can trap other players, and when you have bluff or semi-bluff, they'll have to fold to you because they know you're not screwing around.

 

[Four Dogs]

True enough, though I'm not sure having stood up to a bully on the first hand of the WSOP will ease my pain as I head for the exit.

 

[RedKing]

True enough, though I'm not sure having stood up to a bully on the first hand of the WSOP will ease my pain as I head for the exit.

I guess that's the same reason why a lotta people wouldn't make that call. It's normative ambiguity man. Great leaders of the world have to make that kinna decisions everyday. Of course, like other poster stated before, there's really no "wrong" way to play the hand. It's just IMO that calling the hand will give you the best chance of winning not only that hand but the entire tournament.

 

[tiltboy]

I wouldn’t put my WSOP seat on the line on a 65% chance in the very first hand, im quite comfortable particularly at the blind levels to wait.

This is one of the situations where i cannot live by numbers.

 

[aliengenius]

EASY fold. Why? Cause of what Estelle said. I really don't think you can find fault with her reasoning (nor do I think any of her posts were condescending in any way).

I will to try to sum it up for you:

AVOID MARGINAL SITUATIONS WHEN YOUR "M" IS HIGH.

Tournaments are NOT about maximizing your expected value at every opportunity, save it for the cash game. Your SURVIVAL is far more important here; risk:reward. 65% is no where near good enough here.

See a far more nuanced variation of this concept here.

 

[shinedown.45]

I would have to call in this situation.
First of all I would stand up and shake the hands of the pros and say "Its nice to meet you all", then turn to the big guy and say "Good-luck" and shake his hand and push my chips in the middle.
I look at it this way, If the pros have all looked at their cards and had folded, there is a really good chance that both my cards are still live.