WSOP Hand History

[hott_estelle]

"I'd fold kings" is a real quote, but you're taking it WAY out of context.

They'd fold kings to an all-in on the first hand if the guy who pushes all-in has seen his cards. The idea being, of course, that the only hand someone is willing to push all-in with on the first hand of the main event is, specifically, pocket aces.

Being 65% to win against a random hand, this is an instant call. If you get knocked out - and you will, one time in three - go have some lunch, and find yourself a juicy side game filled with all the other people who get knocked out early. Chances are they played poorly in order to get knocked out.

FP, although I've never seen you play, I think from general consensus on this forum considers you an above average player. Why would you ever want to risk your tourney life, in the beginning of the tourney with the blinds and your stack size what they are, on a 65% chance?

The better players always try to minimize opportunities for the bad players to get lucky on them. If you're throwing all your money in 65% preflop, with a 10K stack at beginning of M.E. blinds, then you're leaving wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much up to chance. Better players put their chips in better situations, than being 65% to win preflop; you should be able to find a way better situation than just 65% preflop to use your chips. FP, I'm shocked that you actually would make this call.

 

[jayneseo]

. After a minute or 2 you see this 6'2" big hairy man with a white shirt, overalls, Navy boots and a big fat hairy mole on his lip come in and sit next to you

What are the odds that Jimbo is at the same table as me?


I'd call but I'm a donk.

 

[mrsnake3695]

I still don't get why it being the first hand, or very early in the tourny makes that much difference.

Estelle I know you to be a good player and I certainly understand your (and others) position on this. I guess its a style/strategy difference rather than a poker difference. My position in an MTT is I want to accumulate chips and i don't mind gambling to get them if the odds are in my favor which they clearly are here.

I'll ask 3 questions:

1) If villan shows you 7-2 os after he bets (again assuming it's allowed) do you call or fold?

2) If it's the middle of the tourney (not yet in the money) and you and villan both have average chips stacks (still not under serious blind pressure but half the field has more chips than you but winning will put you in the top 20% and losing will knock you out) do you make the call?

and 3) If your are in a heads up tourney or it's down to heads up do you call or fold?

 

[hott_estelle]

I still don't get why it being the first hand, or very early in the tourny makes that much difference.

Estelle I know you to be a good player and I certainly understand your (and others) position on this. I guess its a style/strategy difference rather than a poker difference. My position in an MTT is I want to accumulate chips and i don't mind gambling to get them if the odds are in my favor which they clearly are here.

I'll ask 3 questions:

1) If villan shows you 7-2 os after he bets (again assuming it's allowed) do you call or fold?

2) If it's the middle of the tourney (not yet in the money) and you and villan both have average chips stacks (still not under serious blind pressure but half the field has more chips than you but winning will put you in the top 20% and losing will knock you out) do you make the call?

and 3) If your are in a heads up tourney or it's down to heads up do you call or fold?

1) Yes, if villain shows me 2-7 OS, I fold with AK. Now lets say I had a 77, 88, ect, I make the call. But that isn't the situation that misch posted in his OP. Now you're giving me completely different situations that are not the same as misch's situation. The whole situation, blinds, stack, ect, all matter. But just for the hell of it, I'll answer the rest of your questions.

2) I think you would need to be a bit more clear on the whole average chipstack thing, but with AK against any random hand, once again I would probably fold. AK is a hand that I don't want to be calling off an all-in in most situations, I would rather be the first one all-in with great position in relation to the table. So yes, I fold, but you need to be a bit more clear about chip stacks, what is average stack, ect, for me to actually answer this question with certainty. But for now, yes, I fold.

3) OBV now this question is completely different from misch's situation. I think this question proves that situations obv matter on how to make decisions about any hand preflop, even same hands. We are talking about a MTT in misch's situation, where there will be plenty of chances to accumulate chips against weaker players (assuming you're an above average player, which we are going to assume for this situation) while the blinds are relatively low because it is the first hand of the tourney, and this allows us to avoid situation just like having to call with AK for all our chips against any random hand. Once again more info is needed, about blind structure, stack size in relation to blinds, ect, but, in HU tourneys, most of the time blinds are a lot faster than MTTs and you are against a single opponent who you have to beat in order to advance. HU tourney I make the call, however, it does depend on blind structure and the rest of the information I stated above.

I still don't get why it being the first hand, or very early in the tourny makes that much difference.

The first hand part isn't that significant, it's just that first hand in a major MTT like the M.E. always has a very favorable blind structure for the more skilled players than the less skilled players, especially early in the tourney--which is the important part, not that it is specifically the first hand, but because it is early in tourney and what that means in relation to blinds and stack sizes. This is the main reason that early in the tourney makes such a difference on why you wouldn't make this call with AK early, compared to mid-to late stages where let's say you're a bit under average stack and a bit less than 20xBB-ish and you have AK and a player pushes without looking at cards, ect (similar to misch's example) then in this situation its a very easy call.

When your stack reaches a point where you no longer have a comfortable margin of difference between stack and blinds, then you no longer have the luxury of waiting for better than 65% odds preflop. So to answer your question why early tourney situations are so important when it comes to making a borderline decision, it mainly comes down to the blinds-stack situation. Smaller blinds in relation to stacks always favors the more skilled players over the less skilled players. I don't think I actually need to state the reasons why my previous statement is true, its pretty obv. This is why in misch's OP situation, it is an easy fold with just AK. Considering you're an above average player, there will be plenty of opportunities since it is an early tournament situation, to find a better spot than 65% preflop where 5 cards will need to come out if you call and just a little bit of bad luck will beat you--you want to find a better spot where you can minimize the luck factor and leave it up to more skill than luck. With the blinds and stacks as they are, 65% preflop, is not even close to the odds to be making this call (once again, considering you're better than an average player).

 

[mrsnake3695]

Well 90% of the players are going to bust out without any money including bad players, average players, above average players, good players and hall of fame great players. I also don't think that saying that pros would fold here and wait for a better situation is totally true. I'm willing to bet Sammy Farah and a few others would happily call here. Having more chips early can really open up your options and allow you to accumulate even more chips.

I guess it's Just a difference in how you look at it. While some look at it as a chance to be busted out if you get unluckly, I and others look at it as a good chance to grow your chips stack.

 

[hott_estelle]

Well 90% of the players are going to bust out without any money including bad players, average players, above average players, good players and hall of fame great players. I also don't think that saying that pros would fold here and wait for a better situation is totally true. I'm willing to bet Sammy Farah and a few others would happily call here. Having more chips early can really open up your options and allow you to accumulate even more chips.

I guess it's Just a difference in how you look at it. While some look at it as a chance to be busted out if you get unluckly, I and others look at it as a good chance to grow your chips stack.

That's like saying oh well, I'm probably going to lose anyways, might as well call when I might not look like an idiot since I'll most likely be a slight favorite so I can say I got my money in with the best hand preflop.

You can't make decisions based on the fact that 90% of the players aren't going to go far enough to money. Thinking like that, and making decisions based on that, will get you knocked out of the tourney pretty early.

 

[mischman]

MRSNAKE FOR THE WIN!

 

[Four Dogs]

I like Estelle’s reasoning, and at first glance it would appear to be correct. If you're a better than average player, why risk your tournament life on a coin flip? But I see 3 problems with this thinking, first and most obvious is that AKo vs. a random hand is not a coin flip. It’s a 65% favorite. AKs is 67%. I’m sure that changes everything. But that avoids the real issue, the coin flip.

Most tournaments pay off what, top 10%? Even if you're content merely bubbling, are you confident that you can outlast 90% of the field based on skill alone. The PokerDB shows that some of the best tournament players on this site only average around top 40% in MTT's. Skill is nice, but to be a successful tournament player you also need to take some risks; I think we all agree on this. The question is, is this an acceptable risk? IMO, yes.

The other problem is that calling with a coin flip may be the correct play regardless of the setting or number of opponents. If the Better Than Average (BTA) model holds for the WSOP with 10,000 players, paying 10%, it surely must hold for a single table SnG with 9 opponents paying top 33%. So, here we are at a $5.50 SnG at Poker Stars. Hairy Guy to your right and Boobs to your left. Same blind all-in, same coin flip hand (not AK). Should you call? Let's say you're a BTA SnG player you place in the top 3 40% of the time under average conditions, but 90% of the time when you double up in the first 9 hands (if you play your normal game the rest of the way. Is this fair?). Assuming that when you finish in the top 1/3 you have an equal chance of placing either 1st 2nd or 3rd, after 10 games you would have won $15 4 times for $60 and invested $55 for a ROI of $1.09/$1.00

Now let's play 10 Hairy Guy games. You would immediately lose 50% of the time, the other 50% you take 1st 2nd or 3rd 90% of the time. In the 5 games where you doubled up you would win $67. Your investment for the 10 games would be the same $55 but your ROI has grown to $1.22/$1.00

This doesn’t mean you should be calling all-ins with any of course, even if you are BTA. All-ins are rarely blind and if you’re holding 72o, you’re already behind any random hand. Also, despite your high regard for yourself, you just may find yourself at a table full of BTA’s, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility at the WSOP.

Oh, incidentally, in the SnG’s, if you were holding AK (lets call it a 66% favorite), your ROI would be $1.64/$1.00. Killer. I make this call all day.

 

[Four Dogs]

I like Estelle’s reasoning, and at first glance it would appear to be correct. If you're a better than average player, why risk your tournament life on a coin flip? But I see 3 problems with this thinking, first and most obvious is that AKo vs. a random hand is not a coin flip. It’s a 65% favorite. AKs is 67%. I’m sure that changes everything. But that avoids the real issue, the coin flip.

Self Edit:
Estelle did not say that AK vs Random was a coin flip. She has the win% about right, but I think some of the responses and poll votes are based on this assumption.

 

[joeeagles]

I like Estelle’s reasoning, and at first glance it would appear to be correct. If you're a better than average player, why risk your tournament life on a coin flip? But I see 3 problems with this thinking, first and most obvious is that AKo vs. a random hand is not a coin flip. It’s a 65% favorite. AKs is 67%. I’m sure that changes everything. But that avoids the real issue, the coin flip.

Most tournaments pay off what, top 10%? Even if you're content merely bubbling, are you confident that you can outlast 90% of the field based on skill alone. The PokerDB shows that some of the best tournament players on this site only average around top 40% in MTT's. Skill is nice, but to be a successful tournament player you also need to take some risks; I think we all agree on this. The question is, is this an acceptable risk? IMO, yes.

The other problem is that calling with a coin flip may be the correct play regardless of the setting or number of opponents. If the Better Than Average (BTA) model holds for the WSOP with 10,000 players, paying 10%, it surely must hold for a single table SnG with 9 opponents paying top 33%. So, here we are at a $5.50 SnG at Poker Stars. Hairy Guy to your right and Boobs to your left. Same blind all-in, same coin flip hand (not AK). Should you call? Let's say you're a BTA SnG player you place in the top 3 40% of the time under average conditions, but 90% of the time when you double up in the first 9 hands (if you play your normal game the rest of the way. Is this fair?). Assuming that when you finish in the top 1/3 you have an equal chance of placing either 1st 2nd or 3rd, after 10 games you would have won $15 4 times for $60 and invested $55 for a ROI of $1.09/$1.00

Now let's play 10 Hairy Guy games. You would immediately lose 50% of the time, the other 50% you take 1st 2nd or 3rd 90% of the time. In the 5 games where you doubled up you would win $67. Your investment for the 10 games would be the same $55 but your ROI has grown to $1.22/$1.00

This doesn’t mean you should be calling all-ins with any of course, even if you are BTA. All-ins are rarely blind and if you’re holding 72o, you’re already behind any random hand. Also, despite your high regard for yourself, you just may find yourself at a table full of BTA’s, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility at the WSOP.

Oh, incidentally, in the SnG’s, if you were holding AK (lets call it a 66% favorite), your ROI would be $1.64/$1.00. Killer. I make this call all day.

Nice post FD, and your reasoning makes a ton and a half of sense. This actually is, indeed, a call w/o any doubt. The fact many players here won't make it (and I wouldn't either) shouldn't take away from that. When you're 65% to win there really isn't much to debate about. The whole "why risk your tourney life on the first hand" is very overrated, its the kind of statement made by players like Phil Ivey who have an advantage on the rest of the field that probably exceeds 65%. Poker is always about putting your money in when you're ahead and cross your fingers, whether its first or 3000th hand is irrelevant.

This has nothing to do with Estelle's post, because I have to admit that I'd fold this too for most of the reasons she mentions, but in honesty, I also have to admit that this is, w/o any doubt whatsoever, a clear call. The whole blind to stack ratio line of thinking, in which I admit I get caught up in also, doesn't in reality support the fold here either. Fact is you are ahead, that's all that matters.

In conclusion, although the evidence is overwhelming, I know I'll fold for the same reasons Estelle would.

But this is a must call, MUST CALL, MUST CALL!!!!!!!!!

 

[dj11]

Add this consideration. Big fat hairy guy, with a mole on his lip, after winning that first hand cause you fold, gets excited, his metabolism goes up, and he starts sweating, and forgot to put on his deodorant that day. Now what do we do?
_______

Semi seriously, since I won a freeroll satellite to a qualifying satellite to another qualifier to another qualifier to get here by never playing any hand during the first orbit, and having layed down many hands bigger than AK first hand, I would fold. It ain't part of MY strategy to get confrontational early. HOWEVER!!!!! BIG HOWEVER, if that K was the 2nd ace then I'm in.

There might be some value to busting out first hand with AA.

 

[Four Dogs]

There might be some value to busting out first hand with AA.

I did this in my first live tournament. It was the 2nd hand though. Still count?

 

[dj11]

I did this in my first live tournament. It was the 2nd hand though. Still count?

NO!

 

[hott_estelle]

The other problem is that calling with a coin flip may be the correct play regardless of the setting or number of opponents. If the Better Than Average (BTA) model holds for the WSOP with 10,000 players, paying 10%, it surely must hold for a single table SnG with 9 opponents paying top 33%. So, here we are at a $5.50 SnG at Poker Stars. Hairy Guy to your right and Boobs to your left. Same blind all-in, same coin flip hand (not AK). Should you call? Let's say you're a BTA SnG player you place in the top 3 40% of the time under average conditions, but 90% of the time when you double up in the first 9 hands (if you play your normal game the rest of the way. Is this fair?). Assuming that when you finish in the top 1/3 you have an equal chance of placing either 1st 2nd or 3rd, after 10 games you would have won $15 4 times for $60 and invested $55 for a ROI of $1.09/$1.00

Now let's play 10 Hairy Guy games. You would immediately lose 50% of the time, the other 50% you take 1st 2nd or 3rd 90% of the time. In the 5 games where you doubled up you would win $67. Your investment for the 10 games would be the same $55 but your ROI has grown to $1.22/$1.00

This doesn’t mean you should be calling all-ins with any of course, even if you are BTA. All-ins are rarely blind and if you’re holding 72o, you’re already behind any random hand. Also, despite your high regard for yourself, you just may find yourself at a table full of BTA’s, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility at the WSOP.

Oh, incidentally, in the SnG’s, if you were holding AK (lets call it a 66% favorite), your ROI would be $1.64/$1.00. Killer. I make this call all day.

I don't know why people keep coming up with examples of different situations where they can justify making the call. These different situations are not what was present in the OP; different situations will obv support different outcomes to what you should do.

Your SnG example does not fit this situation, it is not similar at all. Main reason, blinds go up every 10 minutes in pokerstars SnGs. Blinds moving up every 10 minutes compared to every 90 minutes (is it 90 or even longer in the M.E.?) is a big difference. Also, you're not starting with a 10K chipstack in an SnG, like you are in the M.E. I know the blinds do start at difference levels, ect, but it does make a difference.

You can't compare the M.E. situation misch posted, to an SnG, and say, "Oh, you would make this call almost all the time in an SnG, this means that you should make the same call in the wsop Main Event." You shouldn't make a decision based on this correlation, the two situations are completely different from one another.

 

[Four Dogs]

OK. So you'd make the call in a SnG with a $10,000 buy-in?

 

[mischman]

MRSNAKE and fd FOR THE WIN!

fixed my own post

 

[Stefanicov]

Ok simple answer is easy call with table as hard as that do you eally think u can grind easy money with good play. You have to take risks with a table as tough as tht because otherwise u will get eaten up by the better players

 

[hott_estelle]

OK. So you'd make the call in a SnG with a $10,000 buy-in?

You need to be more specific with your questions and situations, but I'll give it a go. If the SnG has a 10 minute blind structure (standard PS SnG blind levels), starting stacks 1500 chips, first hand the guy goes all in blind without looking at his hand, it depends on my own BR and stakes I play at the time. If we are saying that I have enough money to play the $10,000 SnG stakes, with a comfortable margin (as in the $10,000 stakes are about 5% of my BR) then yes I could make the call--but I don't think a fold in that situation itself is horrilble as well. But this all depends on feel. I normally hate putting all my chips in the middle preflop with just AK, and to do this on the first hand isn't the most ideal situation, even against any random hand. Against any random hand, I would preflop 10-10/JJ type of hand over AK.

Now, if the $10,000 SnG is not my normal stakes, I've never played at those stakes, and it is way out of my range in BR management, ect, and I only satellited in or something, then I probably don't play the SnG in the first place, but I probably still end up making the same decision if I did play the SnG.

 

[mischman]

I'm LOL-er-bating

 

[hott_estelle]

Ok simple answer is easy call with table as hard as that do you eally think u can grind easy money with good play. You have to take risks with a table as tough as tht because otherwise u will get eaten up by the better players

In OP it was stated that the table gets shuffled every 20 minutes, so you won't be at that table for a few hours or anything like that, where you would have to "grind" your way to easy money like you said. You should not be basing the call on the fact that the table is filled with pros. Your point isn't valid.

 

[F Paulsson]

Estelle,

How much of an edge would you need to make the call? Since 65% doesn't cut it, and 100% (surely) does, I'm thinking there's a middle ground somewhere. Where is that barrier for you?

 

[hott_estelle]

Estelle,

How much of an edge would you need to make the call? Since 65% doesn't cut it, and 100% (surely) does, I'm thinking there's a middle ground somewhere. Where is that barrier for you?

I would need 80/20, at the very least, to make the call. So basically, worst cast scenario I would call would be a pocket-pair v. two suited-connecting undercards (which is basically 80/20).

Anything less than 80/20 I don't make the call, easy fold.

 

[mischman]

You fold KK? KK is -80% agaisnt an ace?

Although, he is 100% random, still a chance.

 

[hott_estelle]

You fold KK? KK is -80% agaisnt an ace?

Although, he is 100% random, still a chance.

80/20 when cards are upturned. I was just answering FP's question about what I would do if I knew the odds, obv in the situation you proposed I didn't know the odds becuase it is against 2 random cards. My answer to FP's question has nothing to do with the situation you proposed in the OP. My answer only applies when I know for certain what the other player has and the odds I am getting, that is what FP asked.

Now if I had KK, instead of AK like you posted in your OP, and it was going up against any random hand, then obv its a call. No question about it. Against any random hand, I don't have the odds in front of me, but KK is a lot closer to 80% than 65%.

I don't even know why you asked me that question. Obv with KK I make that call against any random hand. However, with AK, easy fold.

 

[F Paulsson]

I have to follow this up with another question, then.

Every variable of the initial story is the same, with one very important exception: He limps preflop and you (for whatever reason) don't raise AK.

Now, the flop comes ace-high, giving you top pair, top kicker. He fumbles with his cards, you can't help but notice that he flopped a flush draw but no pair. He pushes all-in. Am I correct in assuming that you fold at this point?