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fundiver199
Legend
Loyaler
Pretty simple. There are 44 unseen cards on the turn, and when one of these will create a certain situation, it will happen 1 out of 44 times or 2,27% of the time. Also hand strength is relative not absolute.
On QhJhTh9h a player holding 8h does not exactly have the nuts. Its the same as having Kh on Qh8h5h2h. Its both these scenarios its pretty obvious, that you have the second best hand, so maybe you have to call, but you certainly dont have to raise.
The other hand is not even really a cooler. Two pair is not a great hand, when there is a 1-liner to a flush, and can usually just be folded to any substantial bet. After all nearly half the deck beat you in that situation.
puzzlefish
student of the donk arts
Loyaler
Okay. So according to this approach we are expecting river-level induced draw collisions about 2 percent of the time on any given board going from turn to river. Does it matter how many players' draws get completed simultaneously? Regardless.. This is what audit companies should be looking at, but are not.
You do realize that the screenshots are demonstrating what I mean by draw collisions, right? I am not even calling them coolers. They are just examples of how action gets generated by getting players excited about their hand by the river. Both outcomes are possible in poker but the frequency of these types of hands colliding with one another is not measured in online poker.
puzzlefish
student of the donk arts
Loyaler
Exactly. I didn't even enter into the pot. But had I entered, I certainly would have been interested in continuing with a straight and then a straight flush by the river .. because what are the odds that my villain would have the King of clubs, right?
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fundiver199
Legend
Loyaler
The hand with two pair against a flush should not even generate action, as I already said. Why would someone put a lot of money in the pot, when any card of a certain suit has him beat?
Even the other board is not really an action board, since the player with the low straight flush lose to any hand, that contain the one card, which make the high straight flush. And unless the player is completely dumb, he will understand this and not overplay his hand.
puzzlefish
student of the donk arts
Loyaler
So here you are nitpicking the boards again instead of the message regarding RNG auditing. These are two examples of many. These two just happen to have that river card that completes a draw for both players simultaneously.
How often do you fold four of a kind when there may be a higher four of a kind on the board? Trips because there may be a boat or a higher set? Full house because there might be a straight flush? It's contrary to profitable play, yet here we are talking about it.
ironduke11
Rock Star
Silver Level
I don't think that players should take for granted with millions of dollars at stack and with sponsored pros from these platforms playing that human nature wouldn't take over and some rigging be in play....
full tilt already showed that it is possible and there is too much anecdotal evidence of continual 5% outs being hit for one to say that the possibility of rigging is not there.
full trust in any platform is illogical....we need to hold them to strict regulation....they need to publish the random number analysis and be regulated by an independent body.....
ive asked pokerstars for the report on their randon number generator many times and have not gotten a response.
full tilt already showed that it is possible and there is too much anecdotal evidence of continual 5% outs being hit for one to say that the possibility of rigging is not there.
full trust in any platform is illogical....we need to hold them to strict regulation....they need to publish the random number analysis and be regulated by an independent body.....
ive asked pokerstars for the report on their randon number generator many times and have not gotten a response.
puzzlefish
student of the donk arts
Loyaler
The answer is that they don't. The analysis is limited to:
1. How frequently do hands get dealt? So in other words how often do you see AA, KK, QQ, etc. and
2. How frequently do draws get completed? That is, how often does the RNG create a royal flush, straight flush, quads, boats, straights, etc.
Beyond this? Nothing.
You can see a certificate of an audit for partypoker. They publish them on their website so you can have an idea of what the certification is for.
jmateuspoker
Rock Star
Silver Level
I play on PokerStars but have hours that it seems that the site is addicted because of difficulties that present themselves in the game bad beats and coolers but actually I think we have to have patience for us to play the game better and enjoy the best spots.
Poker is a learning patience and I'm sure the sites however this may seem true are not regulated but are moments like the live deck where the cards do not hit as much as we play right.
mateuspoker
Poker is a learning patience and I'm sure the sites however this may seem true are not regulated but are moments like the live deck where the cards do not hit as much as we play right.
mateuspoker
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GrannySmit77
Rock Star
Silver Level
That's an interesting idea. Personally, I always thought a poker room will be profitable if all players take turns to win and lose. If a player loses all the time, he will stop playing. And I think no poker room has talked about this- if the results are "randomly" predetermined by some other program that shuffles around wins or losses. Computer geeks might pick up on this and have an advantage over regular players.
Maybe a little off topic, a while ago I read an article written by a computer guy about indirectly rigging the outcome of a poker hand. Something called "elimination program" or "elimination bot", not sure. He maintained since sites make a profit out of the volume of their players activity, their interest is for a poker tournament to last as short as possible for some players. So he studied shorter stacks and found out that they would get into unfavorable situations statistically more often. For instance, they would get dealt KK , go all in against a higher stack who had aces or a lower pair who would spike a set. His opinion was that the site's interests is for shorter stacks to lose as they'll either re-enter or play cash games. Since reading this, I started paying more attention to shorter stacks. The moment everybody pays more attention to the shorter stacks is on or close to the bubble. Very often I would see them getting it all in and being dominated or even if they would get it in good they would end up losing the hand. So around the bubble I started folding everything if my stack could afford losing the blinds. Very often, when I could see a card run out, I would have lost and bubbled with a prime hand against a higher stack. So I have some doubts about online poker in general, some sites in particular. Very few would think to check the activity around the bubble. I think all audits focus on RNG, but there are so many other parameters that can influence the outcome of a hand.
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puzzlefish
student of the donk arts
Loyaler
That's pretty much spot on. The cards that appear are random, but the players holding them are selected non-randomly. A poker site can't manipulate the distribution of cards without getting caught. However, they can manipulate the short term distribution of variance with a much lower risk to maximize profits.
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dgroes
Visionary
Silver Level
That´s interesting that you brought this topic up. It´s a question that I as a poker user does have at the back of my mind. Since playing often tells me it does happen that in the midst of play i do notice certain tendencies... But then again my mind might be fooling me. It would still be divine if others can follow and prove the randomness of their platforms cards distribution.
I don´t get how they´d put the last sentence to action without targeting cards displayed to that player (assuming its a card game we´re still talking about)
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puzzlefish
student of the donk arts
Loyaler
Do you not get how a site can profit or how the card dealing system would work? I think you mean the latter.. so one possibility is that all streets of a deal are known before any player receives any cards at all. For example, a random shuffle is completed, 9 hole card combos selected, and 5 community board cards are predetermined - let's call this sequence the deal. Now a separate algorithm sequence awards the hole card combinations for this deal to selected players that the algorithm determines should win or lose. This way the card dealing all looks random but the winners and losers are controlled.
The above can then be tailored to end tournaments faster or maximize rake in cash games. Ex. Cooler confident players and nits by dealing them aces that get crushed by sets.. right after they just won or lost in a big pot. Ex. Give MTT short stacks shovable hands but give the big stack downstream from them a better hand that they can't fold. Add ridiculous rebuy and late reg conditions on same MTT.
DizzyDeb717
Visionary
Bronze Level
Absolutely. I doubt them all. That's why I stick to micro stakes online. Sometimes I wonder if the outrageous amount of miracle outs, flopped quads, etc online are there for entertainment purposes.. to make it more exciting or something.
Either way, something is off, for sure.
Either way, something is off, for sure.
xOneCoolHandx
Legend
Bronze Level
I think there is some credibility to what you are saying. But I am wondering how it works. I have noticed on some sites that at a given table, there is always someone I will win against despite our preflop holdings, and others that will always win against me. But I have also noticed that if the table gets broken up and that player and I are separated for some time, and then get sat at a new table together. The same pattern does not always hold true.
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dgroes
Visionary
Silver Level
Thanks for explaining puzzlefish. But seems like you´re saying they´re gonna randomize the cards but distribute not randomly the cards to reward players... doesn´t it break the rules of randomness of card distribution, then?
I´ve seen this indeed when I watch other people play MTT. Big stack is big stack for like 1/3 of tourni then if I watch the cards players get a drawdown after drawdown. Suddenly shortstack because of some quad or crazy river cards. I don´t know... I´m not too long a player to say how often these things should really happen.
xpvictor1
Visionary
Silver Level
No trust .. then go elsewhere
I am generally quite a kind person but I have no tolerance for anyone who beats their head against the wall and complains that it hurts ... if you don't trust that a poker site is fair then just leave .. unless you like being cheated.
I am generally quite a kind person but I have no tolerance for anyone who beats their head against the wall and complains that it hurts ... if you don't trust that a poker site is fair then just leave .. unless you like being cheated.
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Pulsar
Rock Star
Silver Level
As for shuffling the cards, my opinion is that it is not accidental. Already much has been said about this - and interest on the calculator when the cards are opened,complete nonsense - the "right" player wins! This short,write deployed there is no desires and time!
puzzlefish
student of the donk arts
Loyaler
I don't think there would be a detectable difference on the surface. As long as the overall distribution of cards is randomized, individual results will also appear randomized over the long run, even if they are manipulated in the short run. For example, it wouldn't be a matter of someone's aces always losing, but rather losing big and winning small, at the expected frequency. Where it would become noticeable would be in more complex analysis, such as plotting total blinds won with any given hand by a player over time, and then comparing results between accounts. I'm just speculating but I think that's a good place to look.
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Sick_Wolf11
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I think it is and i cant wait to see if coin pokers proves that
puzzlefish
student of the donk arts
Loyaler
It may be different from site to site. It's entirely possible that table seats are somehow involved and maybe an algorithm has some kind of schedule for dealing wins and losses at any particular seat at a given time. It may just be semi-predictable with patterns that appear sporadically, unless there is some other variable that determines when patterns appear and disappear. This isn't a new concept. It's just not talked about.
JBGoode
Rock Star
Silver Level
The simple answer to this question is no....
Its scientifically impossible for a RnG to be 100% random. Over time they will start to devlope patterns. As for poker this is why I believe people believe sites are "rigged" when in all reality it's not rigged. The system is just naturally flawed.
Which leads to another discussion....
poker stars has developed technology to make the most random RnG ever created. Which is still only around 98% random. With that said, US players are banned from playing there. Why is that? The safest, more realistic site to play on is actually banned... while sites like ACR and Global continue to run in the US with obvious issues with RnG.
Now dont get me wrong, I'm a very profitable player on Global, and a break even player on ACR. I play the same way on both, and I also agree that to larger fields, and tougher competition on ACR does contribute. Granted the beats I take on ACR and Global are extreamly unrealistic in comparison to how often they happen. That goes for giving them and taking them.
Its scientifically impossible for a RnG to be 100% random. Over time they will start to devlope patterns. As for poker this is why I believe people believe sites are "rigged" when in all reality it's not rigged. The system is just naturally flawed.
Which leads to another discussion....
poker stars has developed technology to make the most random RnG ever created. Which is still only around 98% random. With that said, US players are banned from playing there. Why is that? The safest, more realistic site to play on is actually banned... while sites like ACR and Global continue to run in the US with obvious issues with RnG.
Now dont get me wrong, I'm a very profitable player on Global, and a break even player on ACR. I play the same way on both, and I also agree that to larger fields, and tougher competition on ACR does contribute. Granted the beats I take on ACR and Global are extreamly unrealistic in comparison to how often they happen. That goes for giving them and taking them.
James_Harrison
Rock Star
Silver Level
Which leads to another discussion.... how not only online poker is rigged, but how life is rigged as well.