Poker Math: Understanding Expected Value in Online Poker

[Bozovicdj]

I have to say that I really don't use this much math when playing poker. Sometimes I calculate my pot odds to see whether my call is good or not but thats about it.


However, when I had some hand I struggled with, after the session (so not during the play) I do figure out if I made a +EV decision or not. Once I understood what happened, where I did wrong or could have done better, I just memorize it and do better the next time I find myself in a similar or same spot.

 

[PHX]

Article does a really good job of breaking down this extremely complicated calculation with simple examples.

On the felt the variables are impossible to get right most of the times. Most times you are just guessing although you can make some good assumptions on opponents if you have history on them.

For the non-pro players me included the most important thing is to understand the concept. Most players use the principles of it and do not realize it. The most common application of this is I find is when blinds get high in a tourney and you attempting to steal the blinds.

 

[Rosxana13]

Wow hard math class I just read it seems really interesting and I actually read about it once but this i believe is for advanced level stakes at least on micro-stakes which I play right now is not that necesary only to study and practice when you advance, First to hard to do calculations in 20 sec and players tend to play really crazy sometimes, I have my notes and you can really learn how a player play if he's tight and that stuff with playing a lot of hand against them and making notes... Also I see this for cash games more important I'm still learning about odds and pot odds heheh Good Luck guys!

 

[dragunovich]

I think it's very interesting, over the years and when you can win constantly I think you forget these details .. I think it's important to have these tools at hand, there is never any other tool to improve your poker in the day to day. I'll start reading more articles like this, even if my poker is a little rebellious lol.

 

[marlonksmith]

What is Expected Value (EV)?
In essence, “expected value” is a concept used to describe the average outcome of a given scenario that hinges on an uncertain probabilistic event.

We use expected value to determine if a move or play is the correct one by balancing risk versus what we get in return (the reward).

Is there an Expected Value formula?
Oh you bet. And we break it all down for you in our guide: Expected Value Explained: Understanding EV in Online Poker

We cover scenarios and formulas for limit and no-limit hold'em, as well as tips for applying EV in real-time poker situations.

Do you make it a practice to apply Expected Value to your game?

Hi thanks for the articles would you say having a full understanding of EV is 100% needed before playing micro stakes

 

[zam220]

Excellent article. However, in practice in a tournament waiting by hand can be negative, but you will win again and again !Expectation and reality are two different things !

 

[danoscar]

EV & Implied Odds

Thank you for the articles. I have many times read EV and Implied Odds in books and articles. It is great math. It can help to understand the principles and possibly put to memory some of the major calculations. I will always feel that the person who can make the most calculations the quickest has the best chance of winning and that is what divides the major money pros from the rest. I wish my memory was that quick and that good.

Dan'O

 

[jingler]

Despite the fact that I work as an economist and quite familiar with the theory of probability. In my work, I use the normal distribution functions, the Bernoulli formula, but to apply this knowledge when playing poker I didn’t even think of it.
Perhaps after reading this article, I will try to analyze my games, but this takes a lot of time.

 

[TeUnit]

Maybe the hero, had notes on the villans left to act that they call open shoves deep with AJo or KQ and then their AK shove becomes a good move.

I do have a math degree, so most of the math involved in poker is rather straightforward to me. On the other hand, as stated in the article, making these calculations on the fly is nearly impossible, unless you're the rain-man...
Most of the times I consider +EV moves and try to stay positive.
An example for a particular -EV move we often see in our CC games, especially free rolls: Blinds are 30/60, just second round, one player shoves 1500 from early position. He risks 1500 to win 90. Even if he gets called 1 out of 10 times and loses, this move is -EV.

 

[PsychoVas]

Maybe the hero, had notes on the villans left to act that they call open shoves deep with AJo or KQ and then their AK shove becomes a good move.

You missed the point here. I don't know his hole cards. Let's assume he has a medium or low pair. "Early position" means a lot of players behind, so a lot of chances of a caller with a monster or a big pair that hits or even big suited connectors etc. So if called he has some respectable percent to lose a whole stack of 1500 chips. The gain if not called (which is most likely) is just 90 chips.
In case he holds a monster, if called, there are some chances he would lose a whole stack, but most likely people with weaker hands will fold and he gains just 90 chips. See the pattern?

 

[TeUnit]

Yes with low pair its negative EV and with big pair its less than optimal EV.

 

[M13A13]

The expected value EV, we usually have to keep in mind what we have in availability on bankroll and the risks of each hand with the value of the odds that each card give us to win.
Poker is a dynamic game and needs many calculations to add to the game in each hand.

 

[shanest]

Some great tips in there. I haven't gone this in depth with maths in my own game but as I look to improve I may incorporate this formula into my play.

Thanks CC

 

[Bev]

Understanding the math is very close to just knowing your hands and what beats what . When I got my Mom playing poker online , she hadn't played poker for a long time - but she did play a lot of other cards and had the basics.
So I made the list for her with the poker hands for her to refer to as she plays.

So, even though you know the hands and what beats what , it is that knowledge that will help you more then knowing the math - as lady luck can change that math when you least expect it.
So, if you have a good hand , say 2 pairs , and someone is betting their butt off - I tend to fold as they likely have 3 of a kind or if you see a possible strait , flush etc. It might be prudent to fold .
One thing for sure , it doesn't pay to call and pay to see what they have in their hand most of the time ! \
At the same time if you are now heads up with someone at the table and then you pretty much can guess your odds - 50 % - 50% ! But then again for me every hand is a lottery - so that could be changed as soon as the river is out !
Expecting an out come doesn't always mean it will turn out that way.
Knowing how the values can change is what people need to pay attention to.

 

[Miguel Chacon]

Really great article as usual...

I learn about the Ev long time ago but actually never studied that much cause I still play only on the micro stakes and don't see it that much important I consider more important and easy to calculate the pot odds and I believe you can make good calls with it as much as good folds But it is really interesting a little hard to follow in just one lecture I hope when I'm on more advanced levels I will learn more about it on schools...

 

[AKQ]

But then you learn about implied odds and EV differences in and out of position. Just when computing makes sense we get quantum computers lol
Poker is just too deep

 

[weezy1312]

its nice how you break it down and simplify it with good exemples ) great job ! good article and valuable informations ! the coin flip was my first lesson ever in poker "the theory of poker" , my first step in

 

[Chalada12]

Math exists in evrything and in poker too , it s necessary to know how to calcul or to calcul before doing a move . that s more pro than normal playing . very useful thread thanks cardschat

 

[ray89will]

If you sit on a heater, you sit on a heater. Jackpot sit and gos are notorious for ending to a single heater. Working on heads up flip methods are best for a lot of online situations.

 

[AzdajaD]

Hmm, great article...I really don't use so much math in my poker game...but after reading this great thred, something is going to change!

 

[sergik1992]

First of all thanks for the qualitative article! But frankly speaking this material is too difficult for my understanding... I studied EV before in my native language and I found it simple. Now I wasted more than half an hour and discovered nothing new) to my mind I got just 30-40 %
In my game I use knowledges about EV but I do this rather automatically and not every hand.

 

[M13A13]

These calculations help in making decisions, since part of poker is calculation and the other is luck. The more information a player has, the better his poker will be, so it is important to know about EV, ODDS.

 

[deyvsonflp]

What a sensational post. I want to learn more about it. This year I am studying these mathematical concepts involving poker and it has always helped me. I always get involved with situations that I have to calculate the probability. So far it has helped me a lot.

 

[belizebum]

I am also still learning the EV. Definitely would need a program to figure it out on the fly. You get very little time to fold/call/raise as it is. I think this might be more helpful in live games, where there is more time. Playing online is iffy at best. More suckouts than live games.

 

[Ivansito26]

very interesting, but we see that when you look at the results of high volume players are more likely to double than a player with low levels ... and when we see their history we see their result ..