Honeymoon or Bust!

John A

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Thanks for the response I am enjoying the thread.

So this is my problem how do you judge the quality of your decisions. Like how can I say I made the correct decision when I lost and the hand calc says I was -10% to win. When should I say well it was a good move even though I lost? Or say that was not a good decision when I won? What rules or standards do you apply when judging your decision making process for a hand?

As you gain more experience you learn to judge how your playing a spot based on the quality of the details you are putting into the hand. If for example you did X, because of Y... but you later realize, Y didn't really fit, then win/lose doesn't matter. You simply didn't play the hand well. Or worse yet, you will make a play and not really know or be clear why you did it. That's worse than getting it in w/ 95% equity in the long run. In the short term, it's great to say I won though.
 
Matt Vaughan

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In. Looks like a great start to a great thread here.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

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nothing to contribute, just in :)
 
The Messiah

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Whats your fold to 3 bet/ Would an optimal stat be somewhere around 60%..

Lol, where ever your playing at, the villains are all absolute stations in 3 bet pots...
I dont think they even give you a range, I see pairz,call kinda thing seems to be happening..

Congrats with the upcoming marriage.
 
John A

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Whats your fold to 3 bet/ Would an optimal stat be somewhere around 60%..

Lol, where ever your playing at, the villains are all absolute stations in 3 bet pots...
I dont think they even give you a range, I see pairz,call kinda thing seems to be happening..

Congrats with the upcoming marriage.

If you peek up you can see my fold to 3bet with is 63%. It's a tricky stat. I mean you need to be really confident that you're going to outplay and bluff people in the right spots when you start getting your fold to 3bet under 70%. It definitely takes a lot of reads. Just yesterday I called a 3-bet with a very speculative hand, all the money ended up going in on the flop with my flush draw and gutshot and overs (I was the fav), but whiffed. So you have to be able to endure some higher variance as well, which is going to happen when you're calling with a weaker range of hands.

That's why I advocate folding a lot more in 3-bet spots unless you're really sure of your reads on your opponents. The psychology involved with variance can be a detriment just to itself to good poker players.
 
John A

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So haven't been able to get much volume in with the American Holiday, V-day, etc...

Considering that I haven't been flopping sets really lately, lost more flips than I've won, and haven't been able to suck out, I'm doing ok. I'll go through some of my sessions and post some hands later. I think the biggest thing has been adjusting my game. I'm doing more limping behind in some spots than ISO raising, to keep weak blind players in and not push them out. I'm not making really creative/big bluffs very often. Betting for super slim value, and calling down in some spots that people shouldn't normally be bluffing in. If you look at my graph above, it took me a bit to really look at the games and re-think my strategy. How I'd play at 400 or 600nl wouldn't really work at 50-100nl.

 
Poker Orifice

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I really enjoy reading your posts on here John! Please keep them coming!

thanks!
 
John A

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Yeah, sorry guys. Crazy caught up in wedding stuff which is getting a little overwhelming at times. Doesn't help that I just moved, and I'm getting ready to launch a new product that's been in production for almost 6 years. Craziness right now.

I really couldn't get much volume in this month simply because of lack of time. Here's totals from last month and also overall since I started tracking. I'm just about at my goal though so that's good. I also have a ton of good material to go over at these stakes which is a primary goal of doing this in the first place.



Overall to this point:



So as some time frees up I'm going to go over several hands from this month and get as detailed as possible.
 
Cafeman

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Nice going.

How about at the end of your experiment with these lower stakes, you run your stats through LB and tell us where it thinks your leaks are :)
 
John A

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Nice going.

How about at the end of your experiment with these lower stakes, you run your stats through LB and tell us where it thinks your leaks are :)

Yes, can definitely do that. I'm always using it and peeking any ways. I know most of them, but some habits are hard to break. lol
 
John A

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Ok, since have had almost zero time lately, quick update with some stats and hands. I'll try and post some more common hands and simple spots instead of what I was posting previously.



Sad folds
Hand Converted by Ace Poker Drills Poker Training Software

NL Holdem $1(BB)
HERO ($73)
BB ($138.45)
UTG ($290.5)
HJ ($382.94)
CO ($120.7)
BTN ($126.9)

Dealt to Hero 9:diamond: Q:heart:

UTG Calls $1 , HJ Folds , CO Calls $1 , BTN Folds , HERO Calls $0.5 , BB Checks

Flop ($4) 4:spade: 9:spade: 6:diamond:
HERO Bets $4 , BB Folds , UTG Calls $4 , CO Calls $4

Trying to get max value and get the hand heads up as soon as possible.

Turn ($14.5) 4:spade: 9:spade: 6:diamond: 9:club:
HERO Bets $12 , UTG Calls $12 , CO Folds

Same reason my bet sizing is so large.

River ($38.5) 4:spade: 9:spade: 6:diamond: 9:club: 5:spade:
HERO Bets $21 , UTG Raises To $42 , HERO Folds

Opponent is fishy and doesn't seem aggressive. Can't see him min raising a worse 9 often enough here. Had him on a flush draw from the turn on and sticking with it, which he did end up having.
UTG shows 6:spade: 7:spade:

UTG wins $79


Standard value extraction spot.

Hand Converted by Ace Poker Drills Poker Training Software

NL Holdem $1(BB)
SB ($46.5)
HERO ($142.6)
HJ ($30)
CO ($38.45)
BTN ($250.65)

Dealt to Hero J:club: K:diamond:

HJ Folds , CO Raises To $2 , BTN Folds , SB Calls $1.5 , HERO Calls $1

Flop ($4.5) 5:spade: J:diamond: 4:spade:
SB Checks , HERO Checks , CO Bets $2 , SB Folds , HERO Calls $2

When top pair is a T or higher, checking becomes more profitable since most people at small stakes have bet when passed to disease. We know we'll get the entire range to bet the flop, with not a ton of worry about bad turn cards.

Turn ($8.5) 5:spade: J:diamond: 4:spade: T:diamond:
HERO Bets $7 , CO Calls $7

A few more potential draws or worse hands hit the turn. Want to bet for value and make sure we don't allow free cards.

River ($22.5) 5:spade: J:diamond: 4:spade: T:diamond: 6:diamond:
HERO Checks , CO Bets $5 , HERO Calls $5

Most of our opponents range based on how the hand played is missed draw. Especially considering the weak flop bet and just a call on the turn. When most of our opponents range is predominately weighted towards draw instead of 2nd best hands, we check looking to call most bets.

CO shows T:spade: K:club:

In this case he turned a T, which he may have called a river bet, but not much more than what was bet.

HERO wins $32.3



Common re-steal from reg spot.

Hand Converted by Ace Poker Drills Poker Training Software

NL Holdem $1(BB)
HERO ($97.5)
BB ($98)
UTG ($82.35)
HJ ($107.4)
CO ($98.75)
BTN ($97.2)

Dealt to Hero A:spade: 9:diamond:

UTG Calls $1 , HJ Folds , CO Folds , BTN Raises To $4 , HERO Raises To $15 , BB Folds , UTG Folds , BTN Folds

We know regular will be ISOing light. Good hand to have if we happen to get called. We won't be over committed post flop in many situations.

HERO wins $10


Paired turn card and initiative

Hand Converted by Ace Poker Drills Poker Training Software

NL Holdem $0.5(BB)
SB ($76.34)
BB ($102.84)
HJ ($41.9)
CO ($55.7)
HERO ($49)

Dealt to Hero 7:club: 7:heart:

HJ Raises To $1.5 , CO Folds , HERO Calls $1.5 , SB Folds , BB Folds

Flop ($3) 2:diamond: 9:club: J:heart:
HJ Bets $2 , HERO Raises To $5 , HJ Calls $3

Flop bet could mean anything and in position I want to take initiative in the hand so I can possibly turn my hand into a bluff on later streets if the opportunity presents itself.

Turn ($13) 2:diamond: 9:club: J:heart: J:spade:
HJ Bets $7 , HERO Raises To $15.5 , HJ Folds

Weak turn bet. Opponents range is 22/99+/9x/Jx/QT, x% of the time stubborn smaller pair. Fairly daunting hand range to get to fold out, but we repped the J on the flop and if our opponent doesn't have one or a boat, it's going to be tough for him to call this and a river bet. Only need our opponent to fold 24% of the time to be +EV, but more importantly, the times we can get him to fold that range, it's a range that would normally be crushing us. So it's a huge EV swing. If he just calls we are bombing the river almost always.

HERO wins $26.4
Opponent had: TT fyi...
 
OMGITSOVER9K

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Common re-steal from reg spot.

Hand Converted by Ace Poker Drills Poker Training Software

NL Holdem $1(BB)
HERO ($97.5)
BB ($98)
UTG ($82.35)
HJ ($107.4)
CO ($98.75)
BTN ($97.2)

Dealt to Hero A♠ 9♦

UTG Calls $1 , HJ Folds , CO Folds , BTN Raises To $4 , HERO Raises To $15 , BB Folds , UTG Folds , BTN Folds

We know regular will be ISOing light. Good hand to have if we happen to get called. We won't be over committed post flop in many situations.

HERO wins $10

this is what i'm working on atm, what ranges are you 3betting with here blockers > pretty stuff?

common sense makes me think that it should be hands that are stronger than the fishes limp calling range for when we're called but too weak to flat OOP according to the gap concept..

also does it change IP/OOP? naturally villain dependent as well..
 
John A

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this is what i'm working on atm, what ranges are you 3betting with here blockers > pretty stuff?

common sense makes me think that it should be hands that are stronger than the fishes limp calling range for when we're called but too weak to flat OOP according to the gap concept..

also does it change IP/OOP? naturally villain dependent as well..

Ax/K7s+/Q9+... primarily hands that can outflop someones 3-bet calling range a lot of times and have blockers like the A/K hands. I'd mix in some other hands in spots too. I think squeezing suited connectors and things like that in general isn't good, primarily OOP.

I have a video on 4-bet bluffing that talks a bit about some of these principles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-JagmJoyQA&list=UUJW-EYvr6S5fR1HGDIVtZEA&index=1
 
John A

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Someone asked for a Leak Buster run. This is my last 35k hands. Really I should have 50k or more, but still let's look at what we got:



Leak 1 - Was expected. At these stakes on since I've played a lot more on Bovada lately, I'm not expecting my opponents to fold much.

Leak 2 - Facing a ton of bluffs, so I'm calling down pretty light. However I do know that I should fold in a couple of more spots, so it's a good reminder.

Leak 3 - I call a lot of 3-bets, and I should cut the OOP ones down a bit. It's really not profitable, and I'm not building enough history to warrant it. - NOTED AND WILL USE THIS TO ADJUST

Leak 4 - Expecting several position to show this, but this is also telling me that I'm probably playing too many weak hands out of the SB. So should also take this as an important hint. - NOTED AND WILL ADJUST

Leak 5 - This goes hand in hand with leak #1 & 2, and only confirms it more. It's an area I need to change. - NOTED AND WILL ADJUST



Leak 6 - Again, confirms Leak #2, but know one of the biggest culprits is from the BB. Good to know. - NOTED AND WILL ADJUST

Leak 7 - Yes, I'm probably getting pot stuck against bluffy opponents in spots where I should be folding earlier. I'll have to see how this fairs out with larger sample sizes, but LB does account for sample sizing when assigning leak important so I do need to pay attention to it.

Leak 8 - Little surprised by this because it's not typically something I'm doing. Going to look into this more though.

Leak 9 - I call a bit much with non premium hands. Likely because of the stakes I'm playing and I tend to feel I can outplay a lot of my opponents. It's something I want to get a better handle on.

Leak 10 - I have an aggressive 4-bet range. It's listed as somewhat important so want to make sure that I keep my eye on it.

Leak 11 - Might not be using the best strategy against certain opponent types, so definitely want to look at the hands it lists here a bit more and review my play. This is one thing I love about leak buster is how easy it makes it for me to look at these spots. Plug.

Leak 12 - Kind of expect this one goes along with Leak #9. - NOTED AND WILL ADJUST

I'll cut it there for now since it's enough for me to digest and look into. Don't want to do too much at once.

Sample size is just over 35k with a winrate of over 18bb/100.
 
vinylspiros

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wow thats amazing! whats that? leakbuster? cause if so i need to get that asap.
 
John A

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wow thats amazing! whats that? leakbuster? cause if so i need to get that asap.

Yes, Leak Buster. Someone in this thread asked me to run it and go over my leaks. Definitely learned a couple of things that I think I was over looking.
 
twiztidwolff

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I think if I tried the honeymoon or bust I'd probably get divorced shortly after I explained I didn't make any money for it.
 
John A

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I think if I tried the honeymoon or bust I'd probably get divorced shortly after I explained I didn't make any money for it.

Ha... well, fortunately I made my goal. The honeymoon ended being less than we thought, so that helped as well. But I'll go over a lot more hands here soon. I just haven't had much time to stop to do anything lately.
 
John A

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Well, our honeymoon ended up being A LOT cheaper than we had thought, so I changed my goal to 5.5k and hit that last week. So yeah for reaching goal! Not bad considering I played probably ~7k hands/mo a in my spare time. I'm honestly not sure if I'm comfortable playing too much higher anymore and keeping much more money online. I still have over 28k stuck on Absolute I can likely kiss goodbye (never giving up hope), and money on Tilt as well. I might build it back up to play 200 and 400nl and keep it around there, but likely not much higher anymore, which makes me a little sad. Tough to be an American.

That being said it was fun, and it took me a couple of weeks to adapt my game, but I think I did pretty well. I think I played approximately 55k hands total to reach the 5.5k. I'll try and post some of my thoughts about beating 50 and 100nl, and some hands as well.



My biggest question to anyone reading is what info, feedback etc would you like that you think might be the most helpful. If I want to turn this into a learning thread I'd like to make it as useful as possible to CC.

Are hands like this helpful? Or would you like more general theory?

Villain is a fairly standard regular. Haven't seen anything amazing postflop from him.

Hand Converted by Ace Poker Drills Poker Training Software

NL Holdem $0.5(BB)
SB ($49.5)
BB ($66.32)
UTG ($59.2)
HJ ($13.65)
CO ($16.81)
HERO ($55.4)

Dealt to Hero A:heart: 4:heart:

UTG Raises To $1.5 , HJ Folds , CO Folds , HERO Calls $1.5 , SB Folds , BB Folds

He's obviously ahead of my range. I'm calling mainly to use my position because I have a good feel for how most regs will play at this limit.

Flop ($3) 2:club: 7:diamond: Q:spade:
UTG Bets $2.5 , HERO Calls $2.5

Following my plan. Would be much more ideal if I had at least a back door flush draw, but I can easily rep the queen or maybe turn a backdoor gutter. Raising doesn't make much sense if I'm going to rep the queen on the turn. Too dry of a board.

Turn ($8) 2:club: 7:diamond: Q:spade: 7:spade:
UTG Bets $5 , HERO Raises To $13.5 , UTG Folds

Now I can easily represent the 7 or Q. Both of which are in my range, and both of which may raise the turn here for value since I wouldn't get much more value on the river in most cases on this kind of board any ways. About as dry as you can get, so my perceived range is strongly 7x/22/Qx.There's a ton of better hands I can get to fold at this point, even including AK/AJ, but mid pairs etc... will have a hard time calling out of position. Notice my sizing as well. I risk 13.5 to win 13, so I need him to roughly fold a little over 50% of the time for it to show profit long term.

HERO wins $17.85

Villain had 99 and folded.


Here's perhaps the worst hand I played in several months on there. Well, actually I'm sure it is. I'm going to blame being tired on this one because I don't tend to make these kinds of mistakes. As soon as I did it, and even before my opponents fold I was like... wtf am I thinking (or why am I not thinking).

CO was a pretty aggressive regular. didn't know much about BB, but he was short and likely not very good.

Hand Converted by Ace Poker Drills Poker Training Software

NL Holdem $1(BB)
SB ($102.29)
BB ($37.55)
HJ ($205.55)
CO ($236.36)
HERO ($113.65)

Dealt to Hero 7:diamond: 7:spade:

HJ Folds , CO Raises To $3 , HERO Calls $3 , SB Calls $2.5 , BB Calls $2

Flop ($10.5) 7:club: K:diamond: 4:club:
SB Checks , BB Checks , CO Bets $6 , HERO Calls $6 , SB Folds , BB Calls $6

Wish the bet sizing was better, but I need to call because I want to bring SB or BB in, and hopefully get someone to CR a draw.

Turn ($28.5) 7:club: K:diamond: 4:club: 5:heart:
BB Checks , CO Checks , HERO Bets $19 , BB Raises To $28.55 (all-in), CO Calls $28.55 , HERO Raises To $104.65 (all-in), CO Folds

So someone must have a draw or weakish K. Just betting for value, but my big mistake is shoving once BB goes all-in and CO calls. He would have bet a flush draw and two pair/set's+, so his most likely holding is Air, Kx, or other biggish pair. This was a standard call again. May not have lost value, but I didn't help my cause.

River ($209.25) 7:club: K:diamond: 4:club: 5:heart: K:spade:

BB shows K:heart: 8:heart:

HERO wins $113.65

CO had AA. Might have been able to squeeze more river value. He was a decent reg, but if I called turn, and he checked river, then I would have sized my bet to get calls from 99+ since I wouldn't expect him to check Kx often enough. Sigh.... everyone makes mistakes.
 
Last edited:
Matt Vaughan

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well done and congrats.

Imo keep it roughly 75:25 for HA:Theory split. Good to have some of both though!
 
Cafeman

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Did I miss the bit where you explained how you know their hole cards?
 
John A

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well done and congrats.

Imo keep it roughly 75:25 for HA:Theory split. Good to have some of both though!

Thank you sir. That sounds like a decent ratio. I'll keep it open and whatever happens, happens.
 
John A

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Did I miss the bit where you explained how you know their hole cards?

Yes, you're late to class.... now go get a note in order to come back in. ;)

I'm using the Bovada hand history converter. https://www.cardschat.com/forum/pok...ovada-hand-history-converter-software-218045/ . I mentioned this in here but I'll bump that thread as well.

It's great because it allows you to see all opponent hole cards. Only thing that exists that allows you to see it. Pretty cool. :)

 
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