What percent of poker is luck?

[Mr Sandbag]

In the long-term, since more skillful players will prevail over less skillful players, poker is 100% skill and 0% luck.

In the short-term, I don't think you can really put a value on it. What is "luck?" Is it when a player who is behind in the hand catches the miracle card on the river? Is it when a poor player wins a tournament? Let's say a really awful player registers for a tournament, and every time he sees a flop, he hits the nuts (extremely unlikely, yes - impossible, no). Skill vs. luck for that particular tournament would be 100% luck and 0% skill since you cannot possibly defeat that player unless he is involved in collusion and folds the nuts. For this reason, short-term values on skill vs. luck are irrelevant.

 

[Aleksei]

if ur playing cash ,its 90% skill and then 10% tilt.

If it were 90% skill there'd be no variance to it.

 

[rugby0]

If this game is 90% luck then I am playing the wrong game. How can you make money over the long run if it is just luck.

 

[bernotas22]

the percent varies depending on the situation, just play with good br management is what is important...of course poker has luck which can hurt your game but don't give up...poker is confidence game so just keep playing and your luck will turn around

 

[Aleksei]

If this game is 90% luck then I am playing the wrong game. How can you make money over the long run if it is just luck.

Because the skill portion accumulates. Tournaments are 90% luck over ONE instance, but they, along with every other poker format, are completely 100% skill over a sufficiently large sample.

 

[ChronicFish]

Poker is a luck when you have only 2 outs to win, when you have higher straight than your opponent, when you have better full house than him etc. for example this is lucky, because it situation runner runner: SICK HAND Filippo Candio vs. Joseph Cheong 2010 WSOP unbelievable - YouTube
I saw all WSOP 2010, Candio was on a tilt and make a stupid move.

all in. he would of never played those cards pre.

 

[Marsd]

Theres always luck involved in poker, but I think it leans more towards skill overall--
over time if you are good enough you should win a few tourneys--- but any given hand at any time you could lose to a 1 outer

 

[vegasjj]

We all say so often that "over a large enough sample" - luck loses some of it's importance. I think that that the sample size is just ONE dimension of this issue.

THE TIMING of the good luck/bad luck (whichever seat you might be in) will totally mess-up the sample size.
What I mean - win/lose a one outer in first blind level at a $1 or 10 or something like that BI - or win/lose the SAME ONE OUTER at the wsop final table.... this is NEVER going to balance things out in the sample size!

Besides - what is the "large enough sample" - the fact is even if you play 24/7 it still is NOT large enough. The mathematical odds are just that - they are VERY REAL ABSTRACT TRUTH.

 

[bernotas22]

We all say so often that "over a large enough sample" - luck loses some of it's importance. I think that that the sample size is just ONE dimension of this issue.

THE TIMING of the good luck/bad luck (whichever seat you might be in) will totally mess-up the sample size.
What I mean - win/lose a one outer in first blind level at a $1 or 10 or something like that BI - or win/lose the SAME ONE OUTER at the WSOP final table.... this is NEVER going to balance things out in the sample size!

Besides - what is the "large enough sample" - the fact is even if you play 24/7 it still is NOT large enough. The mathematical odds are just that - they are VERY REAL ABSTRACT TRUTH.

you just spoke the realness, i agree with everything you just said

 

[RamdeeBen]

It's impossible to say what even roughly the percentage is or even get close to it.

There are way to many variables in poker to determine how much of it is luck based. Our own actions in the game dictate and change the luck percentage so much and every other person at the table to. It really is impossible to put a %% on it. There is certainly not "80% skill 20% luck" ratio or whatever people think. It changes from each and every game.


I will say though; you need a fair bit more of luck playing MTT's but when it comes down to cash games and deep poker; the luck aspect starts to get smaller.

 

[Logan2]

Poker is 32.6% luck
​

 

[baudib1]

When it comes to playing poker, from a theory standpoint precisely 0% of poker is luck.

 

[bernotas22]

poker can be 100 percent luck or 0 percent luck

 

[PokerPete]

Poker is 32.6% luck
​

of course I immediately flashed back to high school math
and the phrase "Show your work!" (always in red pen)
flashed before my eyes

When it comes to playing poker, from a theory standpoint precisely 0% of poker is luck.

Hmmmm....theory gets you to the point where the odds are "in your favor" and given a large enough sample set produces a positive outcome...
..."luck" is what we call that seemingly magical force that gives variance the appearance of always favoring your arsehat of a villain as he repeatedly thrives by making the most outlandish calls and ultimately sends you and your pf all in with pp Aces to the rail "with his favorite hand, 93os" :banghead:

 

[EvertonGirl]

I personally say it is 50/50.

For the donks who just shove all in nearly every hand is 100% luck no skill required.

I just lost a hand AJo against A8h. The flop came As5h4h. I was first to act, so I raised half the pot and this guy shoved all in. I did not put him on AA as another guy called his shove so I called, other guy had AQo. Turn:6h (he gets his flush lol) River Jc. Damn that flush

 

[bernotas22]

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/4296990_BF962FD9C1

this hand is 100 percent luck for example

 

[Daniel72]

You cannot put a number on it, there are so many factors, for instance in tourneys: table draws, second best hands, all the flips and coolers/setups etc.
I would say, ist 70 % skill and 30 % luck for very good players and the luck factor gows down to zero if you are good and play 100000000000 tourneys

 

[jaworek1405]

anyone care to explain this call? He is a professional is he not?

As I said, Italian was on a tilt, beacuse before that hand he lost a lot of chips, so that why he made the stupid move.

 

[italiano]

THE deep poker is also a game of chance! It is true that the ability of some concentration and make a difference, but how to explain having AA preflop HERO VILLAIN 22 AND THAT THE RIVER YOU PULL A 2? This juice like it or not has a 60 0 70% luck! It is well!

 

[RamdeeBen]

THE deep poker is also a game of chance! It is true that the ability of some concentration and make a difference, but how to explain having AA preflop HERO VILLAIN 22 AND THAT THE RIVER YOU PULL A 2? This juice like it or not has a 60 0 70% luck! It is well!

No poker is a game of a "chance" A game of a chance is where you have no influence on the outcome.

 

[Aleksei]

Really, whether poker is luck depends on the sample size you're using. Chance-based games even out over the long run so that you're left with nothing but pure EV, which in all poker games can be manipulated via skill.

So, over one game every poker format (sans perhaps cash games played by very skilled players) is gonna be majority luck.

Over a whole year of grinding though, it will be completely, 100% pure skill.

 

[matshark]

no luck in the long run.

 

[onemorechance]

bout 3.50

 

[scorpion1367]

I think the luck factor differs depending on what skill set you have. It also would vary depending if your playing live or on line. Live I think it is as much about playing and reading people as it is your cards. On line is a different set of skills and the luck factor being that you are playing your opponents somewhat blind, although there are things like huds to help you get some idea of how they play....scorp

 

[odomazetov]

Poker is a luck when you have only 2 outs to win, when you have higher straight than your opponent, when you have better full house than him etc. for example this is lucky, because it situation runner runner: SICK HAND Filippo Candio vs. Joseph Cheong 2010 WSOP unbelievable - YouTube
I saw all WSOP 2010, Candio was on a tilt and make a stupid move.

All what u need is just to see the video , because to win the hand with AA before flop it's over 85% so what else to say? U should have a little bit more luck in gameplay.:beer: :beer: :beer: