What percent of poker is luck?

[smidjet]

most players are not willing to put the effort in before they sit down or after they sit down to play the game well, therefore those who do will win. poker is not a hand but an unending series of hands and being lucky or unlucky in a hand does not retract from the fact that it is a game, that in this unending series will reward the most skilled.

 

[onemorechance]

It also would vary depending if your playing live or on line.

How? Winning or losing an 80/20 is the same online as it is live

 

[hypknautiqah]

sick video! I'd puke if that was my loss. I think poker ring games are skill and mtt's are luck. no matter what you have to draw out someone sometime in a tourny and know when to steal ( skill ). I think people will gamble more in mtts than ring so you mos def need luck to go along with that skill. Ramdeebam hit it right on the nail.

 

[scorpion1367]

How? Winning or losing an 80/20 is the same online as it is live

True ,but getting someone to fold the better hand on a scary or wet board is skill not luck and that depends on reads or tells if you will. the point I was making is there are more of them live than on line and it takes a certain skill set to see them. .....scorp

 

[Mr Sandbag]

True ,but getting someone to fold the better hand on a scary or wet board is skill not luck and that depends on reads or tells if you will. the point I was making is there are more of them live than on line and it takes a certain skill set to see them. .....scorp

I'm inclined to disagree. While spotting a consistent physical tell can be extremely profitable for you, physical tells in general are very unreliable. They're most accurate in strong players, but they have probably gotten pretty good at concealing any tells that they have. Weak players generally aren't concerned with physical tells, but the problem is that many players will get just as excited to flop a flush draw as they do when they flop quad Aces.

Betting lines and player types are the most consistent, reliable way to "read" people. Only the stronger players at a table will be concerned about mixing up their play to avoid giving anything away.

 

[muckaveli]

Because the skill portion accumulates. Tournaments are 90% luck over ONE instance, but they, along with every other poker format, are completely 100% skill over a sufficiently large sample.

If a poker tournament is 90% luck over one instance...how than can it be 100% skill over ANY sample?

Regardless of how large the sample size...to me it's not mathematically correct...

If a carrot is 90% clean..
If I get 10,000 carrots...they are 100% clean

iDONK

 

[MTCashman]

I would say about 70% luck 30% skill, luck will always overrule skill

 

[RaisingYa]

I don't know if you can put a percentage on the amount of luck involved in the game. I think the saying is luck is where preparation meets opportunity. I think the luck evens out in the end. Over the long run the player who plays more solid will win more. I make bad calls or all in all the time and sometime get lucky. We tend to only remember those times when someone gets lucky against us. The structure of the game is also a large determining factor. Turbo for instance have a much higher luck rate because people are forced to play hands they wouldn't normally and you see more action. Therefore I think Luck is a part of the game but we all have the same opportunity for that luck.

 

[Bev]

Luck seems to be part of every game , sport or just about everything we do, and if you do the same thing a lot - practice you get a feel for the best moves, and so now that is where the ratio comes in, and the percentages that are in play. So it is a combination of all those factors for me.(including gut feelings and getting teed off and occasionally going all in - or make a last stand )
I am in a freeroll now as I type this on Full Tilt, and just about lost my sorry butt, as I just figured wth and went all in with my last 800 and change stack - and then the software rewarded me !~
I honestly believe you need to do that after many folds and calls to let the software know you are still there ! If you get some decent cards then let the software know you know - and bet !
Hope this helps !

 

[dj11]

80% Skill, 80% luck.

 

[Alaska_back]

by luck you can win very big tournament being an average player. This is interesting and poker

 

[sejotek]

I think in cash games you see more players who playing with skills,but in some low buy`in tournys you see more players who just playing with any cards and waiting lucky cards to show up in flops. Of course every card game what you playing need skills and luck,so i think the 50/50%

 

[gjpa]

Somedays its all about luck, no matter how good you played each hand, but in the long term the skill becomes important and vital for the sustain of your bankroll I want to think. So, I guess there is no a concrete and valid response for answering this question Is highly subjective

 

[sam1chips]

...people talk about poker like it is the only game that has a little luck involved. I would argue that every game has a little bit of luck to it.

Imagine if you were playing a game of (American) football. 1st and 10, you do a run up the middle for 4 yards. One of your offensive lineman kind of held the opponent (which is supposed to be a penalty) but the ref missed it. If the penalty was called it would be 1st and 20, but now it's 2nd and 6. What is that? It certainly wasn't skill, it's a little lucky.

How about if the quarterback makes a terrible throw, right to the defender, and he drops it. After your skill (or lack of skill) on that play, you should probably have turned the ball over, but got a little lucky and get to keep it.

The difference in poker is that everything is very defined. By that I mean, if you get your money in bad, you can calculate just how bad of a spot you're in. If you call an all-in bet post-flop with a 15% chance to win, and you end up winning, that was extremely lucky. And you can tell just how lucky that was by looking at how bad of shape you were in when you called the all-in.

And the whole "luck-factor" isn't as concretely defined in football, basketball, etc as it is in poker, but I believe that it is still there. But those games are obviously skill-based, as the team that is the better skilled (or favorite) should win more often than not. Isn't that the same for poker?

I don't know, that's just my weird abstract opinion

 

[pokerfreak56]

more luck than skill online,too many bad players now who push with anything in mtts ,eventually one of them always suckout against,live poker is totally different,definitely skill at reading players etc comes more into play.

 

[crdcounter]

The only people who think its 50-50 or 51-49 are losing players.

 

[sam1chips]

more luck than skill online,too many bad players now who push with anything in mtts ,eventually one of them always suckout against,live poker is totally different,definitely skill at reading players etc comes more into play.

I don't understand the online vs live argument...isn't it the same game? Relatively minor differences here and there, but still the same game right?

And you say "bad players now who push with anything in mtts". Doesn't that mean "players who are less skilled?" And yes, eventually one of them will suckout on you, but how many times will you beat the people who are pushing all in with 94 before they beat you?

I agree that there are a lot of recklessly aggressive players that play small stakes games online, and you may not find that in live. That doesn't change anything from the skill vs luck argument. It is just a different style of player (similar to facing a fastball pitcher one day, and a knuckleball pitcher the next). You need to adjust to other players' style of play (using skill, mind you...) and you will be able to have success in the long run (despite the bad players sucking out on you occasionally)

 

[RUNRRUNRTO]

The percentage of luck involved varies. It depends on how high the field is, the blind structure, the skill level of your opponents, # of opponents, your level of skill etc... the varibles. Hence, the variance.

 

[sam1chips]

The percentage of luck involved varies. It depends on how high the field is, the blind structure, the skill level of your opponents...

The percent of luck depends on the skill level of your opponents?

 

[dj11]

Can't remember which show it was, maybe Warehouse 13, which used the same line at least twice in the show;

You gotta be good to be lucky!

 

[marcumx]

there's no doubt that if you want to make a profit, skill is a factor but i can't buy the high percentage the pros make it out to be. I can just as easily knock out someone like greg merson if i get lucky. just my opinion

 

[skrsh76]

Cards dealt are luck. Understanding the value of the cards and betting on it skill. Skill dictates how much of luck you get to use

 

[idan170]

Ok guys... I was Just wondering... As you know sometimes in games... We get the money in good... And after that its out of our hands. It is in the hands of the gods. Sometimes... No matter how well you play a hand... You will still lose. So my question is... What Is the skill to luck ratio for the game? Just wondering what you all think...

PS: don't say more luck than skill or I will behead u

in my opinion its more skill. either way how you can explain that its always the same players(all the famous one you know) who get to the late phases in tournments-
we cant say they all lucky

 

[YoMama]

Every time for the last two weeks when I get to the push or fold stage I lose. This is despite being O.K. with ICM and putting in at the optimal time, so at the moment I am thinking it's more luck than skill, however I think there are many aspects of the game that are skill over luck.

 

[stevenright]

I don't know why would you enter a forum about poker to learn more to be a better player if you believe it's mostly about luck.

This thread has some weird responses

I think if you have good bankroll, and an GREAT bankroll management, it's pretty much all about skills... 85% skills if you have means to play well