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John bruce
Legend
Silver Level
My favorite is in any giving day 90 % luck 10% skill. Over a year is 10% luck and 90% skill. Really. I like to see how that's even mathematically possible. That's someone with a big ego talking some doo doo. Just keep it real sometimes you just get luckier than others or you would be in a down swing. :icon_joke
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Joshua BNL
Enthusiast
Silver Level
If it was just about luck I would stop right away. But then again, your opponents can make it a game of luck. Especially with play money or low stake real money.
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Darth_Moola
Rock Star
Silver Level
Luck or Skill
I would say that variance plays a larger role in unskilled players. Having a tremendous amounts of poker skill allows someone to make plays that are superior and less influenced by variance. Without these abilities, variance naturally plays a larger role since it is woven into the basic fabric of the game. Anytime a skillful play is able to win you a pot that inherently takes variance out of the equation. Even if a skillful play doesn't automatically win you the pot, variance is still there as a back up.
To be clear, I am specifically referring to plays where you can win the pot without needing to depend on cards. I know human behavior also can play a role in variance.
I would say that variance plays a larger role in unskilled players. Having a tremendous amounts of poker skill allows someone to make plays that are superior and less influenced by variance. Without these abilities, variance naturally plays a larger role since it is woven into the basic fabric of the game. Anytime a skillful play is able to win you a pot that inherently takes variance out of the equation. Even if a skillful play doesn't automatically win you the pot, variance is still there as a back up.
To be clear, I am specifically referring to plays where you can win the pot without needing to depend on cards. I know human behavior also can play a role in variance.
Flatran
Enthusiast
Silver Level
S
sheltowee420
Rock Star
Silver Level
I have terrible luck.
I am ready to fold every hand.
I can lose 9 out of 10 coin flips in a row.
Just the other day, I lost with Quads to a Royal Flush.
But, somehow I am nicely ahead.
So, I think skill wins long term results, over luck.
I am ready to fold every hand.
I can lose 9 out of 10 coin flips in a row.
Just the other day, I lost with Quads to a Royal Flush.
But, somehow I am nicely ahead.
So, I think skill wins long term results, over luck.
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Shep15jon
Enthusiast
Silver Level
Yes probability is big, but so is luck. AA has the highest probability of winning of any start hand, particularly against something rubbish like a 8,3 off.
You can’t account for the cards coming out of the deck. What if the flop was 8,8,3? That’s pure luck.
Skill would come after with how you play your aces, how you read your opponent, etc.
You can’t account for the cards coming out of the deck. What if the flop was 8,8,3? That’s pure luck.
Skill would come after with how you play your aces, how you read your opponent, etc.
kowrip
Rock Star
Silver Level
In the short term, luck plays a big part. You can certainly have a great session or day or week even playing in a non-optimal way. In the long term, skill prevails. One reason why a lot of people think luck is more important is because most of the situations that occur in NLHE involve very small edges. There aren't many situations where you are >80% to win a hand. Even pre-flop AA loses about 20% of the time, which is fairly common. In cash games, it's easier to overcome this since you can reload and keep playing. For tournaments, you need to wait until the next one. If you take a big enough sample size, you will see that skill has a bigger impact. You need to use appropriate starting hand ranges, figure out your opponents' playing styles, make appropriate bet/raise sizes, know the correct pot odds and be able to get good reads on your opponents.
MattRyder
🍏 Tech That Works!
Platinum Level
I think that's a pretty fair estimate and a good argument.
ACEWOLF56
Rock Star
Silver Level
I only play NLH, so I can only speak for this specific kind of poker? It’s 100% skill (even with luck in play) and here’s why folks! This great game of poker, in which we are so fortunate to play, HAS Layers upon layers of SKILLED ACQUIRED risk management and strategies.
First off: bankroll MANAGEMENT:: Let’s say you have $100. Cash games, you sit with <= 5% ( <= means less than or equal to). Set a period of time (hrs) you feel comfortable working with.
Second: Your strategy:: If you have a few, decide when and where (spots) to play a specific one (which would keep your opponent constantly trying to figure you out).
Third: knowing when to go to the next level of stakes: stay at the stakes you’re playing until 5% of your bankroll is enough to buy in the maximum at that level.
Forth: (and probably the most important) DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE!!!! If you don’t have the anchor that is heavy enough to hold your ship in place until your next move, then forget everything I just said, blame it on LUCK, HUDS, BOTS, and everything else people may blame their misfortune on!
Ladies and Gentlemen, like I said in the beginning of this post. NHL is 100% skill EVEN with luck involved. Sitting at the table and playing the game is not even half the battle. The more sophisticated the game, “the more sophisticated the opponent “ (Revolver). If this game is just for fun and to have a good time then by all means, let it ride. But if you play this game on a serious note, with risk management, proper strategy, and discipline, you’ll never have to worry about luck being in your favor. You’ll make your own luck, and making your own luck?......is a skill.
First off: bankroll MANAGEMENT:: Let’s say you have $100. Cash games, you sit with <= 5% ( <= means less than or equal to). Set a period of time (hrs) you feel comfortable working with.
Second: Your strategy:: If you have a few, decide when and where (spots) to play a specific one (which would keep your opponent constantly trying to figure you out).
Third: knowing when to go to the next level of stakes: stay at the stakes you’re playing until 5% of your bankroll is enough to buy in the maximum at that level.
Forth: (and probably the most important) DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE!!!! If you don’t have the anchor that is heavy enough to hold your ship in place until your next move, then forget everything I just said, blame it on LUCK, HUDS, BOTS, and everything else people may blame their misfortune on!
Ladies and Gentlemen, like I said in the beginning of this post. NHL is 100% skill EVEN with luck involved. Sitting at the table and playing the game is not even half the battle. The more sophisticated the game, “the more sophisticated the opponent “ (Revolver). If this game is just for fun and to have a good time then by all means, let it ride. But if you play this game on a serious note, with risk management, proper strategy, and discipline, you’ll never have to worry about luck being in your favor. You’ll make your own luck, and making your own luck?......is a skill.
