So we all know the stats , for getting dealt certain hands in NL hold em .
AA..220-1
so this basically says that if you get deal 220 hands in 1 session, you could expect to get dealt AA, 1 time in that session.
...Yes, you should expect that, but it doesn't always happen. However, over a large number of hands dealt, say 10K, we can expect that 220:1 ratio to be a lot more accurate.
Lets say there is a ratio says that 1:5 guys are gay. Does this mean that every time you see a group of 5 guys, at least one of them is gay? Not at all. However, if there were a group of guys, then that ratio might be a little more close to being accurate.
Of course, this types of odds/ stats, are not written in stone and are often very innaccurate.
...Of course it's not written in stone because they're just the odds of it happening, however it's far from inaccurate. Again, it's based over a large sample size. Also, it's an average. Based on a large sample size, you should average AA 1:220.
But lets take it further to show the different levels of good luck.
This is just 1 example that Ive made up .
You sit down at a hold em table...and the 1st hand you get dealt, is AA.
example 1
Well, we could admit that is pure luck. You raise 3x blinds, and everyone folds. You end up winning a small pot with nothing but small blind/ big blind. Now that could be considered bad luck, since the AA, did not result in a significant win.
...Getting dealt AA is pure luck? What?
Winning a pot, even though it's just the blinds, is bad luck? What?
Granted, you do want to win more money with AA, but things like this happen. Hey, at least you a free run when blinds come along!.
example 2
same AA hand, but this time you have another player who has KK , you get al lthe money in preflop, and AA, scoops. This is a higher level of good luck for the AA player.
...I do agree with you on this. It's really lucky to run into someone with KK when you have AA because you know theres a good chance they're going to stack off with it.
example 3 - same AA hand...but now you got 2 other players that have hands that end up with all the money in the pot preflop...AA..scoops again...this is even higher level of good luck .
...Again, I agree. Getting your opponents to stack off when you have AA is really lucky.
example 4 - same AA hand - but AK goes all in pre..and they flop a set of kings, or broadway....now the bad luck factor hits home.
...Think you mean trip Kings and not a set, but that's just me nitpicking.
In this situation, it does suck that at this very moment, I lost with AA. However, as a player, I focus on my decision over my results. So, it really doesn't matter that I lost my stack with AA here or I busted in a tournament or whatever the situation is. I made the correct +EV play by getting my stack in with AA, got maximum value for my hand against AK, and just ran into a bit of variance.
Losing the hand wont change the fact that I make the exact same play 100% of the time. My +EV decision will net me more profit in the long run, so I can take a loss with AA < AK here and there.
In other words, we are often told by pros, that luck is exactly equal for all poker players, over the long term. I am convinced this is 100% wrong, along with knowing that there are numerous LEVELS of luck in poker. Getting dealt AA on the first hand you play in a session, is only a low level of good luck, if that AA, only wins a uncontested small pot preflop.
...I really don't get what your examples and luck have to do with each other. You just described a few scenarios with AA that could happen. Since AA has more equity preflop over other hands, we expect it to win more often. However, as long as another hand some equity, it can and will win some of the time.
AKs has ~10% equity over AA, meaning it's going to win about 10% of the time. That's just mathematical and I don't think it's luck/bad luck for you if it happens because it will happen at some point or anther. Maybe some see it as bad luck because it happened to them or it happened at that moment. I can understand why someone would get really upset to lose as a ~90% favorite preflop, but I also think these types of players/thinkers are looking at the small picture and that's how much you profit in the long run int his situation.
