Is NL hold em, the biggest luck involved poker game ?

R

Rumme1

Rock Star
Imho , it is.

Luck is such a huge factor in it, especially tourneys because you will have to eventually play numerous hands, all in preflop, that are coin flips and that no real strategy is involved once the flop, turn and river are dealt, all you do is sit there and hope luck is on your side. Furthermore, its a game where players continually put all their money in preflop when they only have 2 cards which only represents 28% of their total hand. This truly is the definition of crapshoot poker.



And their are numerous examples of big name poker players, who became famous and wealthy, by putting their whole stack in a pot as a 90% or more underdog, and getting lucky to win. A perfect example is Moneymaker in the wsop main event he won. He was involved in a hand with a guy that went all in on the flop , and the guy had pocket aces. I think moneymaker had pocket 6s and moneymaker went all in...and even said " I KNOW IM IN TROUBLE" .....moneymaker got all his money in, and turned a 6 to beat the pocket aces. Lets face it, NL hold em is really a crapshoot game when compared to other forms of poker that are limit/ pot limit . I was actually dissapointed when TV was able to transform the poker landscape and make NL hold em the big game of choice in the casinos and home games.
 
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vinylspiros

vinylspiros

PIRANHA-------->< (((º>
luck is involved yea, but there are many ways you can play it that dont involve going all in preflop that distinguishes the good players from the bad ones. Cant get into details as it would take 100 pages to analyze everything but its definitely not like playing roulette.
 
R

Rumme1

Rock Star
luck is involved yea, but there are many ways you can play it that dont involve going all in preflop that distinguishes the good players from the bad ones. Cant get into details as it would take 100 pages to analyze everything but its definitely not like playing roulette.

Every person on earth that has played NL hold em live games or tourneys for any length of time, has had to call or go all in preflop on numerous occasions. Its part of the game and IMHO..anytime you have to make that play, it is a crap shoot, because it takes all the elements of skill out of the equations when it comes to playing the hand on the flop , turn and river . Once the money is shoved in preflop on just 28% of ones total hand, it is now a entirely luck game...NO SKILL AT ALL IS INVOLVED in that hand from that point onwards.

AQ vs JJ { or numerous other hands} ...and the LUCKIEST PLAYER wins..not the most skilled player. This is something that seems to be overlooked by so many poker players.
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

PIRANHA-------->< (((º>
yea sure, thats a prt of TOURNAMENT poker that everyone has to go though. Dont foget the times when you went all in with 56 and beat some one with aces. If you cant handle situations like that(which are standard in tournament poker), then i suggest to start playing cash games where noone goes all in preflop and thats where the better players come out winners over significant hand samples.
 
fubarcdn

fubarcdn

Legend
yea sure, thats a prt of TOURNAMENT poker that everyone has to go though. Dont foget the times when you went all in with 56 and beat some one with aces. If you cant handle situations like that(which are standard in tournament poker), then i suggest to start playing cash games where noone goes all in preflop and thats where the better players come out winners over significant hand samples.

Agree 100%. In cash games the skilled player has a good opportunity to be profitable whereas the all in any 2 card player has no chance of being profitable in the long run.
In tournaments the higher the buy in the less chance of the any 2 carders even playing.
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

PIRANHA-------->< (((º>
Agree 100%. In cash games the skilled player has a good opportunity to be profitable whereas the all in any 2 card player has no chance of being profitable in the long run.
In tournaments the higher the buy in the less chance of the any 2 carders even playing.


yep.:)
 
S

seghill

Rock Star
you need luck before the flop if you go hard in any of them - but the biggest luck requirements are at Omaha where there are so many possibilities.
 
P

ph_il

...
Imho , it is.

Luck is such a huge factor in it, especially tourneys because you will have to eventually play numerous hands, all in preflop, that are coin flips and that no real strategy is involved once the flop, turn and river are dealt.
...I disagree with this. You don't have to play numerous hands in an MTT. Just because you see other players doing it or trying to play a LAG style doesn't mean you have to. Though, I do believe that LAG > TAG in MTTs, it's just a matter of preference.

The all-in preflop is a tool in MTT's that can be used correctly or incorrectly. And as blinds get deeper/stacks get shallower, the more important using the all-in correctly is required. There are too many variables to go into the AIPF in detail.

Coin flips and winning them are a huge part of MTT's and you aren't going to win an MTT without winning a few flips. I don't care what anyone says, you need to win flips (and 60/40s) to build your stack, make it deep it, get to the FT, and win. Now, does this mean you need to take unnecessary flips for your stack? No. Does this mean you'll win every flip and never bust out? No. You're going to bust out plenty of times getting your money in flip situations, whether you have the best hand or worst hand and it's part of the game.

I can't tell you how many times I've had my big hands cracked getting it all in PF as coin flip, 60/40, or better and it doesn't matter. If I'm able to get my money in as a favorite, no matter how slight my edge is and I get my opponent to commit most or all of their chips, that's what I'm looking for. As soon as I double up, get that bigger stack, get deeper, win a few more flips and make it to top 3, then all those previous bust outs prior to this point don't matter because the profit I'm making will outweigh the losses. Your profits made in MTTs come from the top 3, not by min cashing or anything like that. And you very, very rarely are going to ever finish in the top 3 if you don't take these flips to double your stack (which also gives you max value on your hand).

This is from experience, too. I rarely made FTs or even deep runs in MTTs prior to me taking more flips in the mid-late stages of an MTT. I would, at best, min cash and usually bust out soon after. I had 1 MTT win in 2K games.

Now, I've switched up how I play, take a lot more flips in the late-mid stages, and I see completely different results. It was this video that changed how I played MTTs. Something just clicked.

In my signature, you can see that I have 87 MTT cashes since my last win and 44% of those cashes are final tables w/ 14 2nd and 3rd finishes. This isn't meant to be a brag or anything like that, I'm just saying that flips in MTTs are necessary if you wan to make top 3 and get the eventual win and I wouldn't have gotten these results without winning some flips at key spots in MTTs. I wasn't a winning player back then because I wan't approaching MTTs correctly. And even though, I still have tons more room for improvement, I'm doing much, much better than I ever have.

As for there is no skill post flop, are you talking post flop in AIPF situations or no? If it's AIPF, then yes, you are correct. Once the hands are face-up, then it all depends on the run of the cards, but that doesn't mean there wasn't any strategy involved preflop. Again, it's about gaining max value on your hand and the correct way to go about doing that might be an AIPF.


all you do is sit there and hope luck is on your side. Furthermore, its a game where players continually put all their money in preflop when they only have 2 cards which only represents 28% of their total hand. This truly is the definition of crapshoot poker.
...Not sure what type of MTTs you play. Maybe it's a freeroll, maybe it's the early stages of an MTT. Maybe she's born with it, maybe is Maybelline.

Yes, I agree a lot of players like to play super loose in MTTs and take weird lines. I'll admit, I do that same thing sometimes and maybe make weird plays at the wrong time.

The thing is, who cares about how other players play. They can play as crazy and wild as they want and how I play or decided to play to go against these players is on me. If my table wants to jam every hand and bust each other out, I have no problem folding every hand, waiting for a big hand, getting my money in, and hoping for the best.

Yes, luck might be on their side, but you can always the take the more skilled approach to playing against them.


And their are numerous examples of big name poker players, who became famous and wealthy, by putting their whole stack in a pot as a 90% or more underdog, and getting lucky to win. A perfect example is Moneymaker in the WSOP main event he won. He was involved in a hand with a guy that went all in on the flop , and the guy had pocket aces. I think moneymaker had pocket 6s and moneymaker went all in...and even said " I KNOW IM IN TROUBLE" .....moneymaker got all his money in, and turned a 6 to beat the pocket aces.
...No one is ever going to 100% get their money in as a favorite in coin-flip situations. There's another saying in MTT's that goes 'if you don't get your money in behind at some point in an MTT, you're playing too tight.'

Also, these players have a lot of experience with each other that we don't know about or see. The idea of calling/pushing all in isn't dependent on specific hands vs specific hands, but against your hand vs your opponent's range. If your can beat your opponents range most of the time, get it in. Will you sometimes get unlucky and run into a better hand? Yes, but you still have some equity and, again, it's about beating a range, not a specific hand.

In the Moneymaker hand, we don't know the history of the 2 players nor how the hand played out preflop. If Chris was committed preflop, then he might've had to make the call. If he thought there was a chance his opponent might have AKs or AQs and he was flipping, it was a good call. We don't know the effective stack sizes, the history, or how the hand played out. Different decisions for different situations.


Lets face it, NL hold em is really a crapshoot game when compared to other forms of poker that are limit/ pot limit . I was actually dissapointed when TV was able to transform the poker landscape and make NL hold em the big game of choice in the casinos and home games.
...It's because it's exciting and people want to see exciting things. Also, nlhe is probably the easiest game for non-players to learn and understand.
Above.

Also, I'm not denying that luck isn't a huge part of MTTs because it is. It's just not all luck and luck is only good for short term results. A player who relies on luck only will not nearly be as successful as someone who relies on skill more, though that skilled player has to get lucky once and a while.
 
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wildyetty

wildyetty

Legend
Every person on earth that has played NL hold em live games or tourneys for any length of time, has had to call or go all in preflop on numerous occasions. Its part of the game and IMHO..anytime you have to make that play, it is a crap shoot, because it takes all the elements of skill out of the equations when it comes to playing the hand on the flop , turn and river . Once the money is shoved in preflop on just 28% of ones total hand, it is now a entirely luck game...NO SKILL AT ALL IS INVOLVED in that hand from that point onwards.

AQ vs JJ { or numerous other hands} ...and the LUCKIEST PLAYER wins..not the most skilled player. This is something that seems to be overlooked by so many poker players.

I take it your a player that calls allins oop and with 99 or are on a horrible run and too lazy to look at your hand histories and analyse your play. Its simple dont get involved in hands where you need a crap shoot to call an allin. Push the play dont let them bring it to you. It is ok to fold AA at times, espesially when yur in a good position to cash.
 
Aceplayer55

Aceplayer55

Rock Star
No limit poker is more skillful than limit poker. This is simply because no limit has no betting restrictions, while limit imposes a betting restriction.

Holdem is the most popular version of no limit poker.

Tourneys end up with players going All-In simply because the tournament imposes increasing blinds, to prevent play from lasting forever. Tournaments are much more interesting for TV.
 
detroitjunkie

detroitjunkie

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Awards
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yea sure, thats a prt of TOURNAMENT poker that everyone has to go though. Dont foget the times when you went all in with 56 and beat some one with aces. If you cant handle situations like that(which are standard in tournament poker), then i suggest to start playing cash games where noone goes all in preflop and thats where the better players come out winners over significant hand samples.

What cash games are you playing where no one goes AI preflop? Only at a limit table

Anywho, the question asked was is NLH the biggest luck game. The answer is in general probably yes because of how the game is played, but the same can be said of PLO, and all other poker games all have a degree of luck that are close to each other, and not much far off of NLH/PLO. But calling it crap shoot poker is a little over the top. Skill is still heavily involved, especially making great reads on hand ranges for certain situations.
 
P

PerformLAB

Enthusiast
Imho , it is.

Luck is such a huge factor in it, especially tourneys because you will have to eventually play numerous hands, all in preflop, that are coin flips and that no real strategy is involved once the flop, turn and river are dealt, all you do is sit there and hope luck is on your side. Furthermore, its a game where players continually put all their money in preflop when they only have 2 cards which only represents 28% of their total hand. This truly is the definition of crapshoot poker.



And their are numerous examples of big name poker players, who became famous and wealthy, by putting their whole stack in a pot as a 90% or more underdog, and getting lucky to win. A perfect example is Moneymaker in the WSOP main event he won. He was involved in a hand with a guy that went all in on the flop , and the guy had pocket aces. I think moneymaker had pocket 6s and moneymaker went all in...and even said " I KNOW IM IN TROUBLE" .....moneymaker got all his money in, and turned a 6 to beat the pocket aces. Lets face it, NL hold em is really a crapshoot game when compared to other forms of poker that are limit/ pot limit . I was actually dissapointed when TV was able to transform the poker landscape and make NL hold em the big game of choice in the casinos and home games.

I agree, yet disagree, YES, it is one of the card games that involves the most luck, however, it is no where near a crap shoot... The guy that shoves 66 UTG with a 40bb effective stack, yes is bound to be in a crap shoot, however, the guy that shoves 66 from the button with 10bb is definitively not in for a crap shoot, the player controls most of his luck (albeit not all of it) The players who think it is all luck are usually the players that can't do the math, study ranges, nor understand fold equity and pot odds.
 
L

LukeSilver

Rock Star
been a heads up hyper specialist which typically involves a lot of all in situations i think i can throw a few things into this.

yes to do well in an mtt or win a heads up hyper you need to win a flip or two etc.

the question is how many flips?

and thats where it becomes relevant if your down to 10 blinds and look down at AJs no action before you its a clear push. barring unique tournament structure and once in this spot its out of your control there is no more strategy and its down to luck.

but the question is what got you into this spot?

some of the time its due to bad luck just not going your way but a lot of the time for many people its because they gave away chips they didnt need to and didnt exploit the situation to take chips they could have.

there is always a higher probability, of a weaker player been short stacked then a tougher player.

often in heads up hypers i out play my opponent post flop wittling them down to 250 chips or so ( thats half starting stack of 500) for those that dont know.

now they need to win two all ins to take the match versus one.

what you will find is for heads up hypers is you cant win them without winning all ins, but if your a good player you need to win less of these all ins then a bad player.

yes you need to win all ins and flips to succeed at mtts but the fact is luck balances out for everyone with a large enough sample and bad players need to win more flips then good players thats what a lot of people miss.
 
R

Rumme1

Rock Star
I take it your a player that calls allins oop and with 99 or are on a horrible run and too lazy to look at your hand histories and analyse your play. Its simple dont get involved in hands where you need a crap shoot to call an allin. Push the play dont let them bring it to you. It is ok to fold AA at times, espesially when yur in a good position to cash.

No...I am a player that has a losing percentage with KK , online ..of 78% . This is over the course of 3 years I have lost with KK - 78% of the time. It doesnt matter whether I raise 3 big blinds, slow play or shove all in...KK is a hand that has punished me repeatedly and lost to under pairs, rag ace ,etc.

So do I lack skill in this situation, or is this just very bad luck ? KK, is the 2nd best starting hand in the whole game..and it is suppose to win around 80% of the time...I lose with it 78% of the time.

AK is my next biggest losing hand....especially towards the end of a tourney, when it is a hand that is very strong to be dealt, and usually must be played preflop .

I would never expect to win shoves all in pre with 9-9-.....but surely KK is not suppose to lose the amount of times it does for me { per my poker tracking software} . In fact, I now hate it when im dealt KK and would rather be dealt 2-2- since its a much easier pair to fold or play on the flop if you spike a set.
 
smallfrie

smallfrie

Lucky Ducky
Awards
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When you add nl to any poker game the skill level that is required to be successful increases dramatically not decreases.
 
Aceplayer55

Aceplayer55

Rock Star
So do I lack skill in this situation, or is this just very bad luck ? KK, is the 2nd best starting hand in the whole game..and it is suppose to win around 80% of the time...I lose with it 78% of the time.

Are you claiming you win in other games (like 7 card stud and PLHE) and only lose in NLHE?
 
R

Rumme1

Rock Star
When you add nl to any poker game the skill level that is required to be successful increases dramatically not decreases.

I dont agree...for example :

You have a NL hold em game...min buy in is $100....a above average player who doesnt have alot of money to risk , buys in for $100 . A average player buys in for $600 . More times then not, the average player will bust the above average player just based on stack size, and the ability to be a bully on the smaller stack by playing recklessly or forcing the above average player to get his whole stack in preflop and risk coin flip hands. In this type of scenario, LUCK, is once again a huge factor because the above average player with a $100 stack , is probably gonna call a all in with QQ...vs the average player with the big stack who pushes all in pre with AK or AQ...making the smaller stack have to coin flip.

The $600 stack , can risk all in preflop agasint the $100 stack and lose 4 coin flips in a row, before he busts out...the small stack can only lose 1 coin flip and he will bust out.

This is not skill, this is luck of the coin flip and small stack vs big stack . Once again, the small stack player may be better in poker, but his skill is not likely to overcome the luck factor and being able to overcome the big stacks chip advantage.
 
R

Rumme1

Rock Star
Are you claiming you win in other games (like 7 card stud and PLHE) and only lose in NLHE?

NL hold em, is by far the game that has punished me the most. Hands that usually win big pots for other players { KK - AK - AQ } lose for me more then 60% of the time I play them . I can usually count on losing with my AK vs a underpair, just like I can usually count on losing with my underpair, vs my opponents AK. When the cards run like this, you are fighting a uphill battle because the coin flip hands are always working against you and the hands where you have a significant advantage { KK. vs their A/Q} , you also lose those hands way more then you should. Once again, this isnt over the course of a few weeks. Ive been tracking this loss percentage for years, playing online.

I can almost guarantee that when I am nearing the end of a tourney, my bust hands will be KK -AK and I will have gotten my money in good preflop, but I end up losing.

Now, some people may say, to just fold KK or AK...but IMHO, that is stupid advice, because they are 2 very solid hands, and if you must constantly fold those 2 strong hands preflop , then there is not much use in playing NL hold em.

Even with this endless bad luck in NL hold em online, Im not losing a ton of money, because I have very strong bankroll management . I never put more then $200 in a online poker account and If I am unable to turn that $200 into a profit over the course of several months of play online, I wont make another deposit . I play a very tight game, but when I am confident have the best hand, I bet strongly...if I flop a very strong hand, I love to check and setup aggressive opponents.

Many years ago , I was playing on partypoker millions dollar tourney. I got down to 18 th place...and sure enough I get dealt KK....a player goes all in with 10-10...I am the only caller..and he spikes the 10 to knock me out. I won a few grand, but once again, the dreaded KK costs me alot of cash. Its been this way for years...to the point that I now phsycologically hate to see KK in my hand.
 
Aceplayer55

Aceplayer55

Rock Star
NL hold em, is by far the game that has punished me the most. Hands that usually win big pots for other players { KK - AK - AQ } lose for me more then 60% of the time I play them ..

You should stick to games where you feel confident.
It makes no sense to try to convince others that NLHE is all bad luck.
Besides, bad luck for you is good luck for everyone else.
 
R

Rumme1

Rock Star
luck balances out for everyone with a large enough sample .

I completely disagree with this claim, and many pros claim the same thing.

I think it is absurd to claim that EVERYONE who plays poker or gambles, is somehow destined to have the exact same amount of good luck and bad luck as every other person. Lets say there are 3 billion people on earth, who engage in some form of poker or gambling { slots, poker, bingo, horse betting, lottery tickets, etc] . To claim that they all will have the exact same amount of good luck or bad luck as each other, over the course of months or years, is beyond ridiculous. I know people who have been playing things like slots or lottery tickets for years, and never beat it...then Ive know others who just seem to have good luck on their side, and have won big money.

LUCK , does not exactly even out for every person. There is no " LUCK GOD" looking down upon humans, and guaranteing that each person on earth will get the exact amount of good luck and bad luck, as the other 7 billion people on earth.
 
R

Rumme1

Rock Star
You should stick to games where you feel confident.
It makes no sense to try to convince others that NLHE is all bad luck.
Besides, bad luck for you is good luck for everyone else.

I never claimed NL hold em, is all bad luck...I claimed it is the one poker game, that is most based upon luck, due to the nature of several coin flips being played per session when players get most or all of their money in preflop.

Such a betting system, means that all the skill is now taken out of the flop, turn and river....and players just sit there, hoping to win the coin flips and have the BEST luck to be the winner on the river.

In other words, such a scenario , takes out ALL the elements of skill, bluffing, reading opponents on the flop/turn/river. This is one reason why I claim it is a game that has more of a luck factor involved, then lets say PL HOLD EM or PL omaha.
 
wildyetty

wildyetty

Legend
No...I am a player that has a losing percentage with KK , online ..of 78% . This is over the course of 3 years I have lost with KK - 78% of the time. It doesnt matter whether I raise 3 big blinds, slow play or shove all in...KK is a hand that has punished me repeatedly and lost to under pairs, rag ace ,etc.

So do I lack skill in this situation, or is this just very bad luck ? KK, is the 2nd best starting hand in the whole game..and it is suppose to win around 80% of the time...I lose with it 78% of the time.

AK is my next biggest losing hand....especially towards the end of a tourney, when it is a hand that is very strong to be dealt, and usually must be played preflop .

I would never expect to win shoves all in pre with 9-9-.....but surely KK is not suppose to lose the amount of times it does for me { per my poker tracking software} . In fact, I now hate it when im dealt KK and would rather be dealt 2-2- since its a much easier pair to fold or play on the flop if you spike a set.


Without actual hand histories to look at, its impossible to say where you are making your mistakes. But from your description it looks like you are overvaluing these top hands preflop and not controlling the pot properly. You have to take stack sizes of whos involed in the pot as well as tourney situation your in.

You have ask yourself by calling an allin what do you gain by it? does it just give you few more chips, does it bump you past the tourney bubble, are you moving up a pay spot?

If your answer to question 1 is yes its not worth revealing your hand to the table..
if you answer yes to question 2 and 3 go for it but play lightly control the pot and keep it small til your hand improves


As well allin pre with any hand is a risk so I always ask myself is it worth the risk?

This is just my thought process with limited info on any players, now that all changes after sitting with them for 75 + hands, and then i take tendencies and just that feeling comes into play.
 
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R

Rumme1

Rock Star
Without actual hand histories to look at, its impossible to say where you are making your mistakes. But from your description it looks like you are overvaluing these top hands preflop and not controlling the pot properly. You have to take stack sizes of whos involed in the pot as well as tourney situation your in.

You have ask yourself by calling an allin what do you gain by it? does it just give you few more chips, does it bump you past the tourney bubble, are you moving up a pay spot?

If your answer to question 1 isd yes its not worth revealing your hand to the table..

I believe KK, is rated to win around 75% of the time { over the long haul } in
NL hold em games. I lose with it around 78% of the time, over the last 3 years . Are you trying to claim that I just play KK so badly, that it is suppose to lose for me, at such a absurdly high percentage rating ? You dont see that such a loss stat with KK, also indicates extremely bad luck ?

I mean if I have KK and a decent stack near the end of a tourney, and I raise 4x big blind, and I get one caller , and a ACE flops, and my opponent goes all in { which would bust me from tourney} ..I FOLD my KK....I dont play reckless poker.
 
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