Luck better than skill?

[jcdagenius]

luck is going to run out....skill wins in longrun

 

[Snakmacher]

I am very good but my luck is really very bad... I go all in with 99, on flop comes 9 8 7 turn Q and river 5 and several guys hit straight and I am like why it has to be always me.. when in other hand I get two sweet high overpairs someone else gets 3 of a kind and because of this I already lost 200 USD in poker... Let's just say KARMA IS B1TCH...

 

[Kibic1302]

If you play well, you can always get a few bad beats in a row. These lucky charms poker is essential that part. However, in the long run if you're a solid player that will be on + $ $ $

 

[hrix]

All my friends say that poker is only for lucky ones and without luck you won't win anything. I think that is skill is more important. You have to scare your opponent, he must make a mistakes because of you. And that's all about skill.

 

[cotta777]

this may sound controversial,

but being lucky is a skill in itself, its a talent, some of the best players in the world have a superb 6th sense,
this is one of the reasons and one of the things players dont take into account,
if your in sync with your instincts you are unstoppable.

Phil hellmuth often says im at the peak of my powers I can sense it many of times in a tournament and he is unplayable when in the zone

 

[HooDooKoo]

this may sound controversial,

but being lucky is a skill in itself, its a talent, some of the best players in the world have a superb 6th sense,
this is one of the reasons and one of the things players dont take into account,
if your in sync with your instincts you are unstoppable.

Phil hellmuth often says im at the peak of my powers I can sense it many of times in a tournament and he is unplayable when in the zone

How can it be controversial? It's utter nonsense. There's not nothing controversial about that.

-HooDooKoo

 

[WizardRubic]

"I am a strong believer in luck and I find the harder I work the more I have of it."

-Thomas Jefferson

Luck is a result of hard work.
Just make your luck. Problem solved.

Don't tell me that randomness can completely remove you from the game before you get a chance to work hard. The only way that happened is if you didn't follow bank roll management rules.

 

[cotta777]

How can it be controversial? It's utter nonsense. There's not nothing controversial about that.

-HooDooKoo

its a fact, luck can depend on your instincts,
some people have strong senses and that plays a part of their game, especially in tournaments its not just skill, some of these players run like jesus 90% of the time and are always up their.
ivey neagranu, hellmuth, mercier
to name a few

 

[HooDooKoo]

its a fact, luck can depend on your instincts,
some people have strong senses and that plays a part of their game, especially in tournaments its not just skill, some of these players run like jesus 90% of the time and are always up their.
ivey neagranu, hellmuth, mercier
to name a few

cotta --- There is NO SUCH THING as luck. There is only randomness. Randomness cannot be "sensed" or predicted, nor does it favor anyone or anything in the long run. It just is.

Any argument that you make to the contrary is based wholly on illogic and confirmation bias. End of story.

-HooDooKoo

 

[WizardRubic]

its a fact, luck can depend on your instincts,
some people have strong senses and that plays a part of their game, especially in tournaments its not just skill, some of these players run like jesus 90% of the time and are always up their.
ivey neagranu, hellmuth, mercier
to name a few

Google's definitions:

Statistics is the practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in large quantities, esp. for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those in a representative sample.

Inferring is to deduce or conclude (information) from evidence and reasoning rather than from explicit statements.

An instinct is an innate, typically fixed pattern of behavior in animals in response to certain stimuli.
-
These "instincts" you're talking about aren't instincts. They aren't natural. The professionals you mentioned - they didn't start off knowing what would likely happen. They do sense the future yes, but not through instinct. They predict the future using statistics to determine what will most likely happen. This is an ability gained through years of practice. No where near magical instincts.

Do you really believe that Ivey started off being able to predict what the next few cards would likely yield and how to bet proportionally in regard to the likelihood of what the next few cards would be?
He didn't! He started off like how everyone else did - losing. See here:

Source: http://www.americanhistoryusa.com/the-life-of-young-phil-ivey/

He did not start off with an uncanny ability to predict the future. He started off losing! He studied his numbers and eventually got to where he is now.

He worked his arse off to get his "luck." I hate the term because of how controversial it is. Skill and luck are near synonymous. More skill means more good runs. More good runs indicate someone who is lucky. More skill means more luck.

 

[lovemiscou]

I think that skill will prevail over time.But i dont mind getting lucky on river to hit
a 2 outter so i would rather be lucky then good

 

[baudib1]

There's no luck in poker.

 

[LeeCallaghan]

BEAUTIFUL! shit happens last day I was AA and I think 3/3 all in. I call him and the river 3x3s and another I was AA and the player is QQ. I raise and then I reraise and then player is All in. Of course only hands show them up. 80% vs 20% but turn he got lucky, there is a Q. I loss. Shit Happens man! Life goes on! online is weird. More live is much better!

Luck does happen in poker but does it happen consistently to the same person? Probably not so in the long term, skill and knowledge pays off over luck.

Luck will always exist in the game of poker though.

 

[AlParu]

If there were very lucky people, who always win, poker would not exist as a game.

 

[LeeCallaghan]

like right now, he is all in A9 and I was AK I called and
river is a "9" im not mad but dang!

 

[HooDooKoo]

like right now, he is all in A9 and I was AK I called and
river is a "9" im not mad but dang!

I tried to apologize, but you were already gone. Tough luck.

-HooDooKoo

 

[AlParu]

like right now, he is all in A9 and I was AK I called and
river is a "9" im not mad but dang!

He just got his 25% for win =)

 

[DonV73]

Imho, Skill is much more important.

Skill is something you can control. You cannot control luck (unless you have found a way, pls let me know ).

 

[cotta777]

at the end of the day luck is 2 things 1 random 2 also comes as a part of having strong instincts and some players not many are able to tap into this. which will help your game - this obviously isn't the case 20 tabling.
some of the greats even admit this ,

stat obsessed players always needing a scientific explanation are made to feel uncomfortable by anything that challenges their own theory.
this is because they dont want to believe - number one,
anything else exist in the universe outside their understanding of it

and secondly that other players or people have this ability that maybe they haven't unlocked giving them having an over obsession on one area of their game life. such as statistic/scientific meaning or understanding

 

[HooDooKoo]

at the end of the day luck is 2 things 1 random 2 also comes as a part of having strong instincts and some players not many are able to tap into this. which will help your game - this obviously isn't the case 20 tabling.
some of the greats even admit this ,

stat obsessed players always needing a scientific explanation are made to feel uncomfortable by anything that challenges their own theory.
this is because they dont want to believe - number one,
anything else exist in the universe outside their understanding of it

and secondly that other players or people have this ability that maybe they haven't unlocked giving them having an over obsession on one area of their game life. such as statistic/scientific meaning or understanding

So one can have these mystical "instincts" on one table or a couple/few tables, but not mass multi-tabling? Is that because the multiple instincts interfere with one another, rendering the "signal" useless?

I'm not obsessed with anything, cotta, nor does your theory make me uncomfortable. You are your own person and you can (and will, even) believe whatever you'd like. Having said that, there is a near-infinite amount of empirical data that contradicts this particular belief. That doesn't mean you're wrong, but it does mean that you're VERY PROBABLY wrong. Off the top of my head, I'd suggest that the probability that your belief is correct is equal to the probability of your being kicked to death by a duck.

Furthermore, "whatever else may exist in the universe" likely has better things to do then help poker players predict what cards come next in the deck (be it virtual or physical). You keep trying to tap into the all-knowing unknown and I'll continue to take my chances focusing on the numbers and GTO poker.

Good luck.

-HooDooKoo

 

[lost2qandisa]

I can't exactly remember the quote.... it was something like this:

Good poker players (skilled) make money over time because the numbers don't lie.

Bad poker players (luck) lose money over time because luck can be deceptive.

 

[Salvete777]

Skill+Luck is the best.

 

[Carl Trooper]

I think the bad players will said that poker is a game of luck, and the good players will say it´s a game of skill. Personally i think it´s a game of skill which luck it´s a part of it. Only lucky makes bad player win and only unlucky makes good players lose.

This exactly.

Regardless of how good you are, your 70% still has to win. There is a luck factor in the game but its about making the right choices life time.

 

[chauncey274]

Poker is a game of trying to get an edge or gain advantages. If your really good at football you can win every game through out a season. But no matter how good you are at poker you can not win every hand in a tournament or in a cash game.

So if you are a good poker player and you look for spots where you are above a 50% favorite to make money, then that is what you do. And yes, luck will determine each hand In the same way that luck determines who wins a coin flip. But over time, the odds dictate that over a million coin flips you are going to be very close to 50/50. So over time, if you make yourself a 60% favorite in poker through profitable play, you will make money. Luck will have a say in each hand, but over time luck is slowly less and less a part of the equation.

 

[rdm4k]

poker is a skill game!

and u r thread remind me this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teAWp1CIThw&feature=share&list=PL25FRMFh6IaTqx5iRhdG-Zbn1Qwqtqnor


ahuhauhua just epic


edit: sry i couldnt attach the video in my post