Luck better than skill?

[dj11]

If we assume the absolute mathematical nature of poker, and for example get in a 60/40 hand, does the '60' holding up mean anything with regard to luck?

No. But if we get in 5 of those hands, and they all hold up, does that count as luck? How about 10 times?

Thus is the real problem of this question, we have an almost impossible definition of luck that to compare luck vs skill, is tantamount to comparing cubic yards of ocean to dog fleas.

Since I came up with the comparison that poker is 80% luck and 80% skill, I seem to have gotten luckier. <<<<<WTF

 

[james11588]

Luck in poker never meant too much to experienced poker players. Learn what you need in order to be successful in any poker room.

 

[HooDooKoo]

You need luck and skill to beat the game, if you are a good player without luck,
is not possible to win.

There is no such thing as luck. What people refer to as luck can more accurately be described as randomness. People are not inherently "lucky" or "unlucky". Randomness benefits a particular player on some occasions and other players on other occasions. In the long run, though, randomness doesn't favor anything or anyone.

Anyone that thinks otherwise doesn't understand randomness (or probability/statistics) at all.

-HooDooKoo

 

[starting_at_the_bottom]

If you are a bad player then you need luck because you will often get the chips in behind.

If you are a good player you understand that luck is just another word for variance, sometimes its +ve and sometimes its -ve.


To become a long term winning player you need skill at your game, luck is just something that happens around us and alters the short term fluctuations of our +ve graph.

 

[dj11]

So a definition for 'Luck' is about as useful as a definition for 'God' ?

 

[naruto_miu]

So a definition for 'Luck' is about as useful as a definition for 'God' ?

Whoa Whoa Whoa, hold the camels bud, leave the "G" Man out of this, he ain't talking about you now

 

[JusSumguy]

So a definition for 'Luck' is about as useful as a definition for 'God' ?

God


noun

1. the one Supreme Being, the creator and ruler of the universe.
2. Everything that you love about the world.

-

 

[BluffMeAllIn]

So a definition for 'Luck' is about as useful as a definition for 'God' ?

definitions aside, we can certainly all prove that luck exists when we hit or lose to that gorgeos 2 outer on the river haha. Can the same be said for the well higher power, there has to be one in some form or another I would hope because to think that once we kick the bucket that we no longer exist in some form or another is kind of depressing.....

I know so off topic of the thread, but blame dj as he brought 'God' into the discussion.

 

[stefffan1]

Skill is definetely more important than luck , but luck can be a decisive factor sometimes. You can lose/win a hand or two or three because of luck , but only skill and study can make you win serious money.

 

[JusSumguy]

I don't think either one is proper without the other. Especially in tournaments. You need both.

No matter how well you play, you're gonna have to win some races.

-

 

[GWU73]

Simple truth: short term luck trumps skill. Long term skill trumps luck.

 

[ezevan1022]

Skill overides luck for sure, it keeps the bad players coming back.

 

[rumsey182]

im going the total opposite way on this i have seen many average players make a ton of money simply because they run really good in huge spots in mtts and when your in a progressive blind structure like mtts with massive fields just getting really lucky a few times or simply holding/ not running into the top of someones range is way more valuable then playing well. The failure rate is just way too massive and a blind squirrel can ship a major tourny clearly long term skill is better but in massive fields it is almost impossible to hit your longterm expectation. I don't care how many times you play something like the sunday million one bad runout deep can throw off your EV so much

 

[HooDooKoo]

im going the total opposite way on this i have seen many average players make a ton of money simply because they run really good in huge spots in mtts and when your in a progressive blind structure like mtts with massive fields just getting really lucky a few times or simply holding/ not running into the top of someones range is way more valuable then playing well. The failure rate is just way too massive and a blind squirrel can ship a major tourny clearly long term skill is better but in massive fields it is almost impossible to hit your longterm expectation. I don't care how many times you play something like the sunday million one bad runout deep can throw off your EV so much

In any single MTT, I would agree that "luck" outweighs skill. In the long run, though, that is not true --- especially for a strong MTT player.

Regardless, I think that most of the support for skill over "luck" is from cash players. If we lose a hand due to randomness, we just re-buy and try again --- and if we keep getting it in good, then we will win in the long run (as long as poor bankroll management doesn't "ruin" first.

Good luck.

-HooDooKoo

 

[Beyond_Space]

Ok I have question. Is time limit to skill or no? I mean, if you so good than, skill means you must win more than you lose no? If that is true, than why more ppl not winning and more losing to lucky player?


How can you measure skill, I can measure lose/win/but skill not easy to measure, why?


Everyone here say skill=long time, yes?

Everyone here say luck=short time, yes?

So how can I, speed up my skill to make me win over lucky player?

 

[scorpion1367]

Ok I have question. Is time limit to skill or no? I mean, if you so good than, skill means you must win more than you lose no? If that is true, than why more ppl not winning and more losing to lucky player?


How can you measure skill, I can measure lose/win/but skill not easy to measure, why?


Everyone here say skill=long time, yes?

Everyone here say luck=short time, yes?

So how can I, speed up my skill to make me win over lucky player?

Study ,play lots, Study, play lots, Study some more.....hope this helps.........scorp

 

[HooDooKoo]

Ok I have question. Is time limit to skill or no? I mean, if you so good than, skill means you must win more than you lose no? If that is true, than why more ppl not winning and more losing to lucky player?


How can you measure skill, I can measure lose/win/but skill not easy to measure, why?


Everyone here say skill=long time, yes?

Everyone here say luck=short time, yes?

So how can I, speed up my skill to make me win over lucky player?

Most people lose because they radically overestimate how skilled they are. Google "Dunning Kruger Effect" or search for it here.

You measure skill based on your long-term results, or based on the quality of the short-term decisions that you make (as opposed to hand results).

And as others have stated, you develop skill through play and study. There are no shortcuts.

-HooDooKoo

 

[rumsey182]

In any single MTT, I would agree that "luck" outweighs skill. In the long run, though, that is not true --- especially for a strong MTT player.

Regardless, I think that most of the support for skill over "luck" is from cash players. If we lose a hand due to randomness, we just re-buy and try again --- and if we keep getting it in good, then we will win in the long run (as long as poor bankroll management doesn't "ruin" first.

Good luck.

-HooDooKoo

copying what i said to you in message while i was waiting for limit to be removed ( ty deb!)

the thing is luck is not capped on upside (nor is the downside but that is another story all together), and regardless of how skilled you are it will always be capped. If you can theoretically max exploit someone constantly (lets say you know every range they have and always do the perfect counter) you still can't win as much as if you never lose a runout/ always hit/ simply always hold imo

* ill keep your posts out you can add them in if you wise but nuts and bolts you stated how statistically there is no such thing as luck*

statistically clearly you are correct but i have witnessed many people run so far over ev for a long time and make incredible amounts of money doing so. The problem is some of them improve while they are running like god so they stay profitable and never hit the downside of their expectation.

People who live on the extreme end of the standard deviations are basically alway going make a monstrous amount of money it really does happen, care and point chris moorman makes 10 mill and plays like a lunatic at times ( i have seen that guy make suicide shoves all the time and hold/ get their in just silly spots)

it isnt just pure skill ( even thou bigdog is skilled clearly) that Casey Jarzerbeck back to back FTed the sunday million

 

[rumsey182]

Most people lose because they radically overestimate how skilled they are. Google "Dunning Kruger Effect" or search for it here.

You measure skill based on your long-term results, or based on the quality of the short-term decisions that you make (as opposed to hand results).

And as others have stated, you develop skill through play and study. There are no shortcuts.

-HooDooKoo

100% agree usually the sign of a really good player is one who underrates himself because he has heavy self criticism of himself. Shows he/she is really pushing themselves to be better

 

[HooDooKoo]

copying what i said to you in message while i was waiting for limit to be removed ( ty deb!)

the thing is luck is not capped on upside (nor is the downside but that is another story all together), and regardless of how skilled you are it will always be capped. If you can theoretically max exploit someone constantly (lets say you know every range they have and always do the perfect counter) you still can't win as much as if you never lose a runout/ always hit/ simply always hold imo

Feel free to believe whatever you'd like.

In the long run, though, we all run materially the same --- so, in the long run, the most skilled cash players win the most and the least skilled cash players lose the most (in terms of ROI). This is an objective truth. In the long run, one cannot having their "luck" even out.

Play well.

-HooDooKoo

 

[rumsey182]

your correct long term my whole point is plenty of people never actually hit their long term thou

trust me i agree with everything you have been saying

 

[HooDooKoo]

your correct long term my whole point is plenty of people never actually hit their long term thou

trust me i agree with everything you have been saying

We shouldn't be drawing any conclusions or making any generalizations based on outliers. And if the outliers continue playing, their "luck" is nearly certain to even out in the long run.

-HooDooKoo

 

[Tom1559]

Luck will win hands for bad players now and again but luck can have two words in front of it "good" and "bad". For every time that you get good luck there will be a time when you get bad luck. Poker is a game of game of skill and while lucky players may win short term only good skilled players will win in the long term. The margins between winning and losing at poker are small which is one reason why bad players get luck cannot sustain long term success.

 

[goldy_lordy]

Luck is overrated, i'm a math teacherand i teach that to my students... if you play long and lots enought... you have to play wisely

 

[MadMaddie]

I would like to be a good player more than a lucky one but some times it is good to be lucky.