***Jumpstarting January Chat Thread***

[eNTy]

nah dude trust me you want to hack into easy mode and cruise along. hard mode gives you KK vs AA a lot and then youre forced to make soul reads and yell "i can dodge bullets baby"

i heard this only works in the matricks

 

[S93]

argh.
Before u say it, i know, ev graphs dont matter and are only a tiny part of the luck in poker, but it still sucks when your 13bi below in 6k hands.
Still up this year but can i please get some run good?

 

[Marginal]

Stacks at 1 of my tables:
800bb
600bb
230bb
and me with 140bb

Time to ship the nickles

 

[KerouacsDog]

came 43rd out of 102 in my biggest ever mtt($145), 6 places paid, never had a hand, survived by stealing blinds, and position play, enjoyed it big time, looking forward to the $300 freezeout on thurs, gl all at the tables

 

[SPCotter]

Ok... I took a break from B2B, partly Uni studies and partly as I ran 17 buy ins below EV (graph in Oct/Nov thread I think) and had to drop to 10NL, even though I should have been up , so I have just let my roll sit there for a while, and returned to my measly FT roll do the Holiday Bonus and try to just enjoy poker a bit in the micros, which I have been until today, have hung around after clearing even with no rakeback.

Been positively crushing $2 SnGs and 2NL (only 5k hands but hey) for about a month, again leaking in entering too many MTTs, but hey, such is life. I will luckbox one day lol, I'm still up overall on FT since before Xmas, but man this is such a sucker, I mean I've had donks open shoving on me with 88 near full stacks I sit with AA instacall they hit their set.. having my AA run into sets on dry flops (and puurrrlease I'm not folding AA on a flop in 2NL unless I'm against a nit). AA has been a particular nemesis of mine tonight, and this hand below typifies my session.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
SB ($2.06)
BB ($5.13)
UTG ($3.34)
CO ($5.96)
Hero ($1.97)

Dealt to Hero A♦ A♣

UTG raises to $0.06, fold, Hero raises to $0.21, SB calls $0.20, BB calls $0.19, fold

FLOP ($0.69) 6♦ 8♦ 5♠

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB raises to $1.85 (AI), BB folds, Hero calls $1.36 (AI)

TURN ($4.21) 6♦ 8♦ 5♠ 7♥

RIVER ($4.21) 6♦ 8♦ 5♠ 7♥ K♠

Hero shows A♦ A♣
(Pre 79%, Flop 80.8%, Turn 0.0%)

SB shows 9♣ T♣
(Pre 21%, Flop 19.2%, Turn 100.0%)

SB wins $3.93

The poker gods hate me I swear! Why can I not JUST RUN GOOD!!! RUN ABOVE EV MORE THAN ONCE IN A BLUE MOON?

 

[joemac696969]

Good Luck to all at CC, and may your BRs Grow Bigger than ever for 2010! Best wishes from the Mac Millan Family!

 

[cAPSLOCK]

argh.
Before u say it, i know, ev graphs dont matter and are only a tiny part of the luck in poker, but it still sucks when your 13bi below in 6k hands.
Still up this year but can i please get some run good?

Now looks can be deceiving. But it LOOKS like what happens to me when I start running bad a little (when I am up still) and then tilt myself away for the rest of it.

 

[cAPSLOCK]

Can someone please turn my doomswitch off?

I am no longer the Durrrr or 5nl. I am now the Isilur1 of 02plo!

pokerstars Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.02 BB (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($2.39)
SB ($6.37)
hERO (BB) ($4.90)
UTG ($4.15)

Preflop: hERO is BB with 6

, Q

, 3

, 4

UTG calls $0.02, Button calls $0.02, SB calls $0.01, hERO checks

Flop: ($0.08) 5

, 2

, A

(4 players)
SB bets $0.08, hERO raises to $0.32, 2 folds, SB raises to $1.04, hERO raises to $3.20, SB raises to $6.35 (All-In), hERO calls $1.68 (All-In)

Turn: ($9.84) 2

(2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($9.84) 7

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $9.84 | Rake: $0.45

Results:
SB had 7

, 4

, 3

, 2

(full house, twos over sevens).
hERO had 6

, Q

, 3

, 4

(straight, five high).
Outcome: SB won $9.39

 

[KerouacsDog]

Ok... I took a break from B2B, partly Uni studies and partly as I ran 17 buy ins below EV (graph in Oct/Nov thread I think) and had to drop to 10NL, even though I should have been up , so I have just let my roll sit there for a while, and returned to my measly FT roll do the Holiday Bonus and try to just enjoy poker a bit in the micros, which I have been until today, have hung around after clearing even with no rakeback.

Been positively crushing $2 SnGs and 2NL (only 5k hands but hey) for about a month, again leaking in entering too many MTTs, but hey, such is life. I will luckbox one day lol, I'm still up overall on FT since before Xmas, but man this is such a sucker, I mean I've had donks open shoving on me with 88 near full stacks I sit with AA instacall they hit their set.. having my AA run into sets on dry flops (and puurrrlease I'm not folding AA on a flop in 2NL unless I'm against a nit). AA has been a particular nemesis of mine tonight, and this hand below typifies my session.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
SB ($2.06)
BB ($5.13)
UTG ($3.34)
CO ($5.96)
Hero ($1.97)

Dealt to Hero A♦ A♣

UTG raises to $0.06, fold, Hero raises to $0.21, SB calls $0.20, BB calls $0.19, fold

FLOP ($0.69) 6♦ 8♦ 5♠

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB raises to $1.85 (AI), BB folds, Hero calls $1.36 (AI)

TURN ($4.21) 6♦ 8♦ 5♠ 7♥

RIVER ($4.21) 6♦ 8♦ 5♠ 7♥ K♠

Hero shows A♦ A♣
(Pre 79%, Flop 80.8%, Turn 0.0%)

SB shows 9♣ T♣
(Pre 21%, Flop 19.2%, Turn 100.0%)

SB wins $3.93

The poker gods hate me I swear! Why can I not JUST RUN GOOD!!! RUN ABOVE EV MORE THAN ONCE IN A BLUE MOON?

standard fold for me on that flop, too draw heavy.

Good Luck to all at CC, and may your BRs Grow Bigger than ever for 2010! Best wishes from the Mac Millan Family!

Good luck to you bud!

 

[BelgoSuisse]

standard fold for me on that flop, too draw heavy.

if you fold there, it's a big leak, imo.

 

[KerouacsDog]

if you fold there, it's a big leak, imo.

Belgo, I know you're like ten levels above me, but that's probably a 60% fold for me, so many draws out there, flushes, straights up and down, and sets. Do we really wanna get it all-in when at the most we're ahead(not way ahead), average we're racing, and at the worst, we're way behind. The other guy pushed all-in, he must be confident of his hand, are we? no, we have a pair, that's it.
Going to bed now, after working the night, apologies if I dont get back to this b4 tonight.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Belgo, I know you're like ten levels above me, but that's probably a 60% fold for me, so many draws out there, flushes, straights up and down, and sets. Do we really wanna get it all-in when at the most we're ahead(not way ahead), average we're racing, and at the worst, we're way behind. The other guy pushed all-in, he must be confident of his hand, are we? no, we have a pair, that's it.

We're 65% ahead of simple flush draws, 60% ahead of oesd, crushing gutshots, overpairs, top pair, all of those are stacking given the SPR. And we are getting great pot odds to call.

And as a rule of thumb, playing for 100bb stacks with an overpair in a 3bet pot is always correct, and folding always a mistake.

 

[F Paulsson]

we are getting great pot odds to call.

This is key. I don't think you're behind on average but even if you were, that's not enough of a reason to fold. You have to be behind a great majority of the times in order to fold here, and you're not. Especially not when you consider that some non-zero percentage of opponents will play for stacks with weaker overpairs than yours here.

The fact that you have the Ad doesn't hurt either.

I can think of exactly zero opponents versus whom I fold here.

 

[slycbnew]

We're 65% ahead of simple flush draws, 60% ahead of oesd, crushing gutshots, overpairs, top pair, all of those are stacking given the SPR. And we are getting great pot odds to call.

And as a rule of thumb, playing for 100bb stacks with an overpair in a 3bet pot is always correct, and folding always a mistake.

Is it fair to say that the more draws available on the flop, the more likely we are to be ahead? i.e, make stacks 220bb's, and make the flop raise a 2.5x to 3x raise rather than a stackoff? Obv villain dependent, but is that a bad way to think about it?

 

[F Paulsson]

Is it fair to say that the more draws available on the flop, the more likely we are to be ahead? i.e, make stacks 220bb's, and make the flop raise a 2.5x to 3x raise rather than a stackoff? Obv villain dependent, but is that a bad way to think about it?

(We should maybe move this discussion to HA, but...)

It's tricky, because wet boards make two wildly different types of villains raise. One is the kind (increasingly more common the higher stakes you play) that will play for stacks with draws. The other is the kind that will "protect" their weak overpairs by stacking off (decreases as stakes go up).

I stacked off with the black kings on a JdTd4h board yesterday (I raise UTG, three callers, button raised my flop c-bet, everyone else folded, I shoved). In hindsight, I think playing for stacks there was a mistake (I probably shouldn't have bet the flop, but I don't remember the details), but there's an important difference between that board and this one: There are fewer overpairs (probably none, unless he was slowplaying AA) that my opponent could be raising with. So there's a gray area, but had the flop been like the one in this example, I'd have felt really good about playing for stacks because I think I would have gotten it in versus 99-JJ often enough to be profitable (and there would be more flushdraws on average in my opponent's range).

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Well, when villain only has draws and sets in his raising range, you're obviously happier to play for stacks with an overpair on a board with loads or draws than on a very dry one where villain always has the set.

But the stack to pot ratio on the flop is really crucial too. Stacking an OP 400bb deep in an unraised pot is suicidal. Folding an OP 100bb deep in a 3bet pot is terrible. In between, it depends.

 

[KerouacsDog]

We're 65% ahead of simple flush draws, 60% ahead of oesd, crushing gutshots, overpairs, top pair, all of those are stacking given the SPR. And we are getting great pot odds to call.

And as a rule of thumb, playing for 100bb stacks with an overpair in a 3bet pot is always correct, and folding always a mistake.

see, thats why you're ten levels above me, I knew none of that sh*t!

This is key. I don't think you're behind on average but even if you were, that's not enough of a reason to fold. You have to be behind a great majority of the times in order to fold here, and you're not. Especially not when you consider that some non-zero percentage of opponents will play for stacks with weaker overpairs than yours here.

The fact that you have the Ad doesn't hurt either.

I can think of exactly zero opponents versus whom I fold here.

that's good enough for me then.

Is it fair to say that the more draws available on the flop, the more likely we are to be ahead? i.e, make stacks 220bb's, and make the flop raise a 2.5x to 3x raise rather than a stackoff? Obv villain dependent, but is that a bad way to think about it?

Well, when villain only has draws and sets in his raising range, you're obviously happier to play for stacks with an overpair on a board with loads or draws than on a very dry one where villain always has the set.

But the stack to pot ratio on the flop is really crucial too. Stacking an OP 400bb deep in an unraised pot is suicidal. Folding an OP 100bb deep in a 3bet pot is terrible. In between, it depends.

so guys, you're happy to get it all-in every time, as long as you think you're ahead? Even if you thought it was 51% against 49%, you'd shove/call an all-in in an instant? Guess that's where I'm going wrong(one way, anyway) if I think I'm slightly ahead but may get sucked-out on, I'm not always calling, is this scared play?

 

[F Paulsson]

Getting it in isn't always optimal; some multistreet plays can yield better results than just getting it in on the flop. But I'm always calling an all-in when I'm a favorite to win, and I'm often calling all-ins with weaker chances than that given that I'm always getting better than 1:1 odds.

 

[KerouacsDog]

Getting it in isn't always optimal; some multistreet plays can yield better results than just getting it in on the flop. But I'm always calling an all-in when I'm a favorite to win, and I'm often calling all-ins with weaker chances than that given that I'm always getting better than 1:1 odds.

thanks FP for the insights, im such a newbie to cash, less than 2 months play, so need lots of help.

 

[SPCotter]

see, thats why you're ten levels above me, I knew none of that sh*t!


that's good enough for me then.




so guys, you're happy to get it all-in every time, as long as you think you're ahead? Even if you thought it was 51% against 49%, you'd shove/call an all-in in an instant? Guess that's where I'm going wrong(one way, anyway) if I think I'm slightly ahead but may get sucked-out on, I'm not always calling, is this scared play?

Yes, you can maybe justify a fold in certain spots in tournament play, if you think you are ahead but the outcome is pretty marginal and you are at a critical stage of play i.e. approaching the bubble. But in cash games, every time you believe you are ahead, or even behind with odds to call, you should do so, as said, otherwise it's a leak, you are always looking for the most +ev outcome available. As F Paulsson said there may be other ways to go about it to get the most optimal result.

In this case, the original raiser was running 41/32 over 338 hands, and only folding to 3bets 47% (7/15) of the time, and the guy who I end up all in against was running 58/14, and smooth called a 3bet from the small blind as his first action, and don't forget this is a 2NL hand!! I'm 3betting pre flop all day long and the even though the flop is 3 way I have every right to believe I am ahead on the flop, I can't not lead out on a wet board, and I have to call the shove, his range is too big, he's shoving any fd and any straight draw, possibly overpairs of which there are a lot more combinations of any hand he may have which has me beat and is shoving with (sets and 2P). I'm still favourite - albeit a lot more marginally (~55/45) to be ahead by the river if villain is holding as strong a draw if he had Td9d. If he shows with a set or two pair, well tough... he's shoving a wide range of hands, and has been said, I've invested a lot already, I'm getting over 2/1 to call, folding is so wrong here, no need to move to HA. It's just a suckout I thought to share typifying my night on the felt

 

[LuckyChippy]

Getting it in isn't always optimal; some multistreet plays can yield better results than just getting it in on the flop. But I'm always calling an all-in when I'm a favorite to win, and I'm often calling all-ins with weaker chances than that given that I'm always getting better than 1:1 odds.

Is this an example of dead money? So if we are getting it in at 2:1 pot odds, we can go in as a slight underdog? Is that also why people mention that getting it in with overs vs pairs is still fine cause of dead money?

 

[KerouacsDog]

sick hand at 50nl HU:
full tilt poker Game #17564305873: Table Pierre (heads up) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:19:22 ET - 2010/01/13
Seat 1: KerouacsDog ($33.05)
Seat 2: Villain ($107.50)
KerouacsDog: try it
Villain posts the small blind of $0.25
KerouacsDog posts the big blind of $0.50
Villian: cry
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KerouacsDog [Ac 7d]
Villian: try
Villian raises to $1.50
KerouacsDog calls $1
*** FLOP *** [4d 7c 2c]
KerouacsDog has 15 seconds left to act
KerouacsDog: where are you in china?
KerouacsDog bets $1.50
Villian calls $1.50
*** TURN *** [4d 7c 2c] A♠
KerouacsDog bets $2.50
Villian: yes
Villian: Shanghai
Villian raises to $14
KerouacsDog: u rich?
KerouacsDog has 15 seconds left to act
KerouacsDog raises to $30.05, and is all in
Villian calls $16.05
KerouacsDog shows [Ac 7d]
Villian shows [5d 3d]
*** RIVER *** [4d 7c 2c As] 7♠
Villian: twitter?
KerouacsDog shows a full house, Sevens full of Aces
Villian shows a straight, Five high
KerouacsDog wins the pot ($65.60) with a full house, Sevens full of Aces
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $66.10 | Rake $0.50
Board: [4d 7c 2c As 7s]
Seat 1: KerouacsDog (big blind) showed [Ac 7d] and won ($65.60) with a full house, Sevens full of Aces
Seat 2:Villian (small blind) showed [5d 3d] and lost with a straight, Five high

 

[SPCotter]

Is this an example of dead money? So if we are getting it in at 2:1 pot odds, we can go in as a slight underdog? Is that also why people mention that getting it in with overs vs pairs is still fine cause of dead money?

Not quite, as I still expect to be ahead of most of his range and hold up to the river unimproved regardless.

But if you were to flip this situation, say villain has Td9d, I still have AA, same flop, except I decide to check/raise, he makes the same size bet as I did leading out, and I shove, he has approximately 2/1 pot odds. To break this into percentage form, villain needs to be expecting to be ahead by the river 33.3% of the time (1/3 = 33.3) for a call to be +ev. You expect the flush draw to come in about 35% of the time and with the gutshot straight he can expect to be ahead at the river nearer to ~45% of the time, assuming villain puts me on an overpair, so the call is fine.

However, obviously you want to avoid situations where you are pot committed and are behind - you still lose money!!! Herein lies the problem of calling a 3bet pot with a drawing hand, and in my reversed example of trying to take the pot down, calling is better than folding, you are getting a positive expectation on the call to the shove on the flop, but you still lose overall.

I hope that makes sense, maybe some else can explain it better if not

 

[LuckyChippy]

How to play 22 (and other small pairs)...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($4.68)
BB ($4.95)
UTG ($5)
Hero (MP) ($7.69)
CO ($4.08)
Button ($2.38)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 2

, 2

UTG bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.47) J

, 8

, J

(2 players)
UTG bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.07) 3

(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.07) 9

(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $1.07 | Rake: $0.07

Results:
UTG had Q

, A

(one pair, Jacks).
Hero had 2

, 2

(two pair, Jacks and twos).
Outcome: Hero won $1

EDIT: 17/17 over 44 hands at 6-max. after the turn check it's pretty obvious overcards MAYBE medium pair. Thoughts on betting turn or river? I basically never bet river but maybe turn.

 

[F Paulsson]

Is this an example of dead money? So if we are getting it in at 2:1 pot odds, we can go in as a slight underdog?

Not just a "slight" underdog. We can go in as a 2:1 dog and still break-even; if we have more than 35% equity in the pot we have an automatic decision.

There are a couple of really good lessons for NL players to learn from limit hold 'em, and arguably the most important one is to stop thinking in terms of "I think he has me beat" because that's only half the information needed. The other is "do I get a good enough price to call?" A limit hold 'em player would never even consider only the first half of that question when pondering a call because it's so obviously silly when you're getting 7:1 odds to fold if you "think you're beat." It gets less obvious when you're getting 2:1 odds in no-limit and some players can do pretty well (but probably not great) just working in terms of "I'm ahead" or "I'm behind" but it will cripple your win-rate because you're folding way too often.

When I was first coached, my coach (Alan Jackson) took a look at my went-to-showdown and remarked that it was pretty high but also noted that because I have a background in limit hold 'em, that was probably alright. The difference is subtle, but someone whose WTSD is high because they're overly optimistic about their chances to be ahead will lose a lot of money. Someone whose WTSD is high because they're making extra calls when they get good pot odds will win a lot of money.