MicroCrushers Thread!!!!!

[pocketehs]

3k hands is a very small sample size, and losing over that number of hands could be normal variance, only way to know is to review your sessions and see if you can identify any bad play on your part. If it is mostly losing through coolers and bad-beats then there is nothing you can do but ride it out.

Check this out...

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/

I found this variance simulator tool interesting, you can plug in different winrates, different number of hands and different standard deviations (default stDEV of 80bb/100 should be fine because I have read elsewhere that typical players stDEV is between 70 and 100bb/100), and run a number of trials to see how variance affects winning.

I ran 10 trials for 100K hands assuming a modest but decent 4bb/100 winrate and stDEV of 80 - one of the trials shows negative profit and two of the others show barely any profit. Basically shows that it isn't unlikely for winning players to breakeven or even lose over 100K hand stretches due to variance.

Micro, Im checking this out right now. So I would plug in my 8900k hands, 8.18 bb/100. What should I put at # of trials and stdev?

 

[micromachine]

Micro, Im checking this out right now. So I would plug in my 8900k hands, 8.18 bb/100. What should I put at # of trials and stdev?

Since you are a FR player try using the stDEV Logan had, which was 62bb/100

The number of trials can be anything...try 10 first...and tell it to plot by un-checking the "Only Plot Max & Min Runs". This will then plot 10 different simulations, which represent 10 different possible outcomes of playing those 8900 hands.

Then you can just keep pressing 'submit' to run more trials.

 

[pocketehs]

Ok here are the results. Can you help me interpret a bit better?

Largest downswing 830bb
Largest breakeven 7.5k

Simulated winnings graph
http://www.evplusplus.com/site_medi...sd_62.00_nruns_10_nhands_8969_True_P5oeXU.png

 

[micromachine]

In one of the simulations variance was against you and you broke even, this is basically like what happens in real life when you runbad (bad beats, coolers, being card dead etc)...even though you are an expected winner you broke even.

If you run and plot more trials you can see that it is possible to lose quite a few buy-ins (see the -1000bb runs below) over this sample size just due to variance...

Does it make sense?

 

[pocketehs]

In one of the simulations variance was against you and you broke even, this is basically like what happens in real life when you runbad (bad beats, coolers, being card dead etc)...even though you are an expected winner you broke even.

If you run and plot more trials you can see that it is possible to lose quite a few buy-ins (see the -1000bb runs below) over this sample size just due to variance...

Does it make sense?

Not quite sure I understand yet. What youre saying is that my bb/100 says Im a winner however my recent swing can be attributed to variance (ie bad beats, coolers, card dead)?

 

[micromachine]

Yes, exactly. Over a smallish sample size like 9,000 hands, variance can easily mean you breakeven or even lose.

But if you play 900,000 hands with that winrate you will be virtually guaranteed to profit considerably

 

[orangepeeleo]

Just imagine that each one of those lines is a different version of you playing the exact same amount of hands, with the exact same skill level.

One version of you runs really well and comes out with the most profit out of the other 99 you's, one version of you runs like absolute garbage and losses the most out of the 100 you's. It just shows that variance can be a bitch and not to get too strung up on results, because if you play the exact same 8900 hands again you may come out winning more than 8bb/100, and you may come out being a loser

 

[Logan2]

But if this is accurate it means that if worst version is 8 buyins down we could expect not be like 20 buyins down right?, Of course bad run add bad play and tilt so can go more but my point is that if the worst you say could run 10 buyins down and sudenly we find we are 20 then need to look for bad play and not only say is variance right?.

 

[micromachine]

But if this is accurate it means that if worst version is 8 buyins down we could expect not be like 20 buyins down right?, Of course bad run add bad play and tilt so can go more but my point is that if the worst you say could run 10 buyins down and sudenly we find we are 20 then need to look for bad play and not only say is variance right?.

Yeah I think so, seems like if you are 20 buy-ins down over 10k hands you can't just blame variance lol

 

[micromachine]

Just finished another crazy 12 table session, ended 5 buyins up but very swingy.

 

[AlfieAA]

Just finished another crazy 12 table session, ended 5 buyins up but very swingy.

Watched you play for about half an hour, good job sir, any plans for a video lesson then?

 

[Logan2]

Yeah I think so, seems like if you are 20 buy-ins down over 10k hands you can't just blame variance lol

LOL, was example.

What i mean is that if the simulator is accurate to some degree then is healthy look on that when your are running bad, so that way you can see if your run is expected in a way , pretty much just to help pass the bad run because you can say "ok this shit is normal and gona end soon (because you have X number of BI down and still on range of what you see on simulator)" vs "when this shit gona stop" (when you don´t have a clue)<-- this is what some times desmotivate to keep going and can turn on tilt.

Just finished another crazy 12 table session, ended 5 buyins up but very swingy.

Still great man.

 

[micromachine]

Loose call pre but straight flush got paid weeeeeee :icon_chee

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

CO ($10.83)
Button ($4.46)
Hero (SB) ($13.24)
BB ($16.07)
UTG ($5)
MP ($4.46)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4

, 5

1 fold, MP calls $0.05, 1 fold, Button bets $0.15, Hero calls $0.13, BB calls $0.10, MP calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.60) J

, A

, 2

(4 players)
Hero bets $0.40, 2 folds, Button calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.40) 3

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.95, Button calls $0.95

River: ($3.30) 6

(2 players)
Hero bets $5.80, Button calls $2.96 (All-In)

Total pot: $9.22 | Rake: $0.38

Results:
Button had 8

, K

(flush, Ace high).
Hero had 4

, 5

(straight flush, five high).
Outcome: Hero won $8.84

 

[Yoshimiii]

Another good call here imo, villain was an Agg fish didn't think he would be doing this with an over-pair or a set, so put him on a flush/straight draw. I had to be right the majority of the time to make this call profitable ^^. Took about 30secs thinking.

PokerStars Hand #90059615818: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2012/11/30 20:12:41 WET [2012/11/30 15:12:41 ET]
Table 'Pan IV' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Sedlex13 ($9.85 in chips)
Seat 2: Yoshimiii ($9.85 in chips)
Seat 3: azizyakshy ($4.05 in chips)
Seat 4: Kreanga1 ($15.97 in chips)
Seat 5: easyearning ($10.98 in chips)
Seat 6: woozypoozy ($11.66 in chips)
azizyakshy: posts small blind $0.05
Kreanga1: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Yoshimiii [Tc Ts]
easyearning: raises $0.20 to $0.30
woozypoozy: folds
Sedlex13: folds
Yoshimiii: calls $0.30
azizyakshy: calls $0.25
Kreanga1: calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [7d 3s 9s]
azizyakshy: checks
Kreanga1: checks
easyearning: checks
Yoshimiii: bets $0.70
azizyakshy: raises $3.05 to $3.75 and is all-in
Kreanga1: folds
easyearning: folds
Yoshimiii: calls $3.05
*** TURN *** [7d 3s 9s] [Th]
*** RIVER *** [7d 3s 9s Th] [8d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
azizyakshy: shows [9c As] (a pair of Nines)
Yoshimiii: shows [Tc Ts] (three of a kind, Tens)
Yoshimiii collected $8.31 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $8.70 | Rake $0.39
Board [7d 3s 9s Th 8d]
Seat 1: Sedlex13 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Yoshimiii (button) showed [Tc Ts] and won ($8.31) with three of a kind, Tens
Seat 3: azizyakshy (small blind) showed [9c As] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 4: Kreanga1 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: easyearning folded on the Flop
Seat 6: woozypoozy folded before Flop (didn't bet)

 

[Yoshimiii]

Another Sick call here you guys must be thinking I am a massive fish after this hand lol, even though I only had 5 hand samples on this guy he seemed like a maniac. And I didn't see why he would overbet shove the pot on the turn with A 10 or a flush/overpair or any pair. People at 6 max are just giving their cash away to me..

PokerStars Hand #90100704548: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2012/12/01 17:16:57 WET [2012/12/01 12:16:57 ET]
Table 'Finsen II' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: Gabrihl ($6.46 in chips)
Seat 3: Yoshimiii ($9.25 in chips)
Seat 4: espalato007 ($6 in chips)
Yoshimiii: posts small blind $0.05
espalato007: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Yoshimiii [6d 6h]
Andi_Günther joins the table at seat #5
Gabrihl: raises $0.20 to $0.30
fiveatc joins the table at seat #6
Yoshimiii: raises $0.60 to $0.90
espalato007: folds
Gabrihl: calls $0.60
*** FLOP *** [5c Tc 3c]
Yoshimiii: bets $1.20
Gabrihl: calls $1.20
*** TURN *** [5c Tc 3c] [Td]
Yoshimiii: checks
Gabrihl: bets $4.36 and is all-in
Yoshimiii: calls $4.36
*** RIVER *** [5c Tc 3c Td] [8s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Yoshimiii: shows [6d 6h] (two pair, Tens and Sixes)
Gabrihl: shows [2h Qh] (a pair of Tens)
Yoshimiii collected $12.43 from pot
pasha-pit joins the table at seat #1
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $13.02 | Rake $0.59
Board [5c Tc 3c Td 8s]
Seat 2: Gabrihl (button) showed [2h Qh] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 3: Yoshimiii (small blind) showed [6d 6h] and won ($12.43) with two pair, Tens and Sixes
Seat 4: espalato007 (big blind) folded before Flop

 

[Logan2]

Please use this.
http://www.handconverter.com/

PhPbb forum format, position alias, convert

Harder to read the hands other way.

LOL on the 45 Str8flush hand, grats Micro.
​

 

[micromachine]

Let's give 16nl another try. Yeah, welcome back and f**k you

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.16 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Button ($45.10)
SB ($5.74)
Hero (BB) ($16)
UTG ($16)
MP ($8.24)
CO ($24.13)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5

, 5

2 folds, CO bets $0.48, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.32

Flop: ($1.04) 5

, 8

, 10

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.64) A

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.92, Hero raises to $6.40, CO raises to $21.76, Hero calls $8.32 (All-In)

River: ($32.08) 6

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $32.08 | Rake: $1.44

Results:
Hero had 5

, 5

(three of a kind, fives).
CO had 10

, 10

(three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: CO won $30.64

 

[Yoshimiii]

Let's give 16nl another try. Yeah, welcome back and f**k you

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.16 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Button ($45.10)
SB ($5.74)
Hero (BB) ($16)
UTG ($16)
MP ($8.24)
CO ($24.13)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5

, 5

2 folds, CO bets $0.48, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.32

Flop: ($1.04) 5

, 8

, 10

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.64) A

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.92, Hero raises to $6.40, CO raises to $21.76, Hero calls $8.32 (All-In)

River: ($32.08) 6

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $32.08 | Rake: $1.44

Results:
Hero had 5

, 5

(three of a kind, fives).
CO had 10

, 10

(three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: CO won $30.64

ouch ha that sucks.

 

[micromachine]

Phew, I've won it back and more already. Nice to see there are still fish at 16

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.16 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Hero (MP) ($16.38)
CO ($14.47)
Button ($9.84)
SB ($6.28)
BB ($16.95)
UTG ($22.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K

, K

UTG bets $0.48, Hero raises to $1.44, CO calls $1.44, 4 folds

Flop: ($3.60) 8

, 6

, 3

(2 players)
Hero bets $2.72, CO calls $2.72

Turn: ($9.04) 8

(2 players)
Hero bets $6.88, CO raises to $10.31 (All-In), Hero calls $3.43

River: ($29.66) 4

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $29.66 | Rake: $1.33

Results:
Hero had K

, K

(two pair, Kings and eights).
CO had A

, K

(one pair, eights).
Outcome: Hero won $28.33

 

[micromachine]

Another good call here imo, villain was an Agg fish didn't think he would be doing this with an over-pair or a set, so put him on a flush/straight draw. I had to be right the majority of the time to make this call profitable ^^. Took about 30secs thinking.

PokerStars Hand #90059615818: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2012/11/30 20:12:41 WET [2012/11/30 15:12:41 ET]
Table 'Pan IV' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Sedlex13 ($9.85 in chips)
Seat 2: Yoshimiii ($9.85 in chips)
Seat 3: azizyakshy ($4.05 in chips)
Seat 4: Kreanga1 ($15.97 in chips)
Seat 5: easyearning ($10.98 in chips)
Seat 6: woozypoozy ($11.66 in chips)
azizyakshy: posts small blind $0.05
Kreanga1: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Yoshimiii [Tc Ts]
easyearning: raises $0.20 to $0.30
woozypoozy: folds
Sedlex13: folds
Yoshimiii: calls $0.30
azizyakshy: calls $0.25
Kreanga1: calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [7d 3s 9s]
azizyakshy: checks
Kreanga1: checks
easyearning: checks
Yoshimiii: bets $0.70
azizyakshy: raises $3.05 to $3.75 and is all-in
Kreanga1: folds
easyearning: folds
Yoshimiii: calls $3.05
*** TURN *** [7d 3s 9s] [Th]
*** RIVER *** [7d 3s 9s Th] 8♦
*** SHOW DOWN ***
azizyakshy: shows [9c As] (a pair of Nines)
Yoshimiii: shows [Tc Ts] (three of a kind, Tens)
Yoshimiii collected $8.31 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $8.70 | Rake $0.39
Board [7d 3s 9s Th 8d]
Seat 1: Sedlex13 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Yoshimiii (button) showed [Tc Ts] and won ($8.31) with three of a kind, Tens
Seat 3: azizyakshy (small blind) showed [9c As] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 4: Kreanga1 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: easyearning folded on the Flop
Seat 6: woozypoozy folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seems fine to call the flop shove with overpair vs an aggro-fish shortstacker

 

[AlfieAA]

is that you moved up to 16nl mm, or just mixing with 5?....

 

[AlfieAA]

Let's give 16nl another try. Yeah, welcome back and f**k you

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.16 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Button ($45.10)
SB ($5.74)
Hero (BB) ($16)
UTG ($16)
MP ($8.24)
CO ($24.13)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5

, 5

2 folds, CO bets $0.48, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.32

Flop: ($1.04) 5

, 8

, 10

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.64) A

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.92, Hero raises to $6.40, CO raises to $21.76, Hero calls $8.32 (All-In)

River: ($32.08) 6

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $32.08 | Rake: $1.44

Results:
Hero had 5

, 5

(three of a kind, fives).
CO had 10

, 10

(three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: CO won $30.64

sick hand not alot you can do, this was your welcome back to 16 lol

 

[Logan2]

Let's give 16nl another try. Yeah, welcome back and f**k you

Why the jump from 5nl to 16nl?.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

In I guess.

Some guys were bemoaning runbad a little earlier in the thread, so I was gonna dig up a graph or two from my 30-BI downswing earlier this year, but PT3 isn't cooperating, so I'll try later

Currently "grinding" 10nl and mixing in 25nl, but not so much time while in school. Winter break should see me getting in a lot more volume.

 

[micromachine]

Why the jump from 5nl to 16nl?.

is that you moved up to 16nl mm, or just mixing with 5?....

I have over 30 buy-ins for 16nl so seems fine. I'm going to play a mixture...bit of 5, bit of 10, bit of 16 depending on how the games are at the time of day. Don't really like mixing tables though..too confusing lol. This was yesterday, 16nl shot-take starts at hand ~1900 with that dirty 55 cooler I posted above. :icon_chee