Hacking my way as a live pro in 2014

[hackmeplz]

where does this leave you with hands like overpairs, TPTK etc?

I'm overbetting those too, had a really similar spot where I also overbet AA.

this is sexy, but i feel like ~$65 instead of $100 gets you such a similar amount of FE, with a ton less $ spewed the raaaaaare occasion you get owned by a flopped flush. i assume youve thought of this though... so ye why x2 pot? lol

Honestly it's just a vacuum play in that I think people fold way too much to huge overbets. I find that when I rep nothing at all I get called down semi-wide when I make it 1.3-1.5 pot but when I make it 2x pot they literally don't call without a nutted hand. In general I think people over-estimate how often those bets have to work like a 2x pot bet has to work 66.7% of the time yet I feel people fold something like 95% whereas a 1.3x pot bet has to work 56.5% of the time. I think we get far more than an extra 10% of his range to fold by making it bigger. Also if people realized it they'd start snapping every 2x pot bet because I don't think I've ever vbet that size yet. When I make it a small overbet I mix in nutted hands (but am still bluff-heavy) but that sizing my thought process is litearlly: "you're a 200nl 6m zoom reg incapable of calling here without a huge hand".

 

[JCgrind]

Honestly it's just a vacuum play in that I think people fold way too much to huge overbets. I find that when I rep nothing at all I get called down semi-wide when I make it 1.3-1.5 pot but when I make it 2x pot they literally don't call without a nutted hand. In general I think people over-estimate how often those bets have to work like a 2x pot bet has to work 66.7% of the time yet I feel people fold something like 95% whereas a 1.3x pot bet has to work 56.5% of the time. I think we get far more than an extra 10% of his range to fold by making it bigger. Also if people realized it they'd start snapping every 2x pot bet because I don't think I've ever vbet that size yet. When I make it a small overbet I mix in nutted hands (but am still bluff-heavy) but that sizing my thought process is litearlly: "you're a 200nl 6m zoom reg incapable of calling here without a huge hand".

i dig it man. unfortunately, im not playing people smart enough to fold to that kind of shit. the only time i get to utilise overbets as airball bluffs is when checked to on the river and yeah like you said, i can ship for 1.5x pot and get called >5%, whereas if i bet pot or less they snap me off 40% of the time.

^really good move when you have TP but you arent sure whether youre ahead slash villain has you outkicked.

i do however feel like youre going to have to be really careful weighting your range so that youre OBing value hands more frequently than semi bluffs, cos as soon as anyone sees that the first time theyre going to note every detail of that shit. then youd have to worry people are gunna start shipping over your OBs slash let you do them to pot commit you to the turn shove they were always planning, etc.

 

[Jagsti]

Pretty sure jagsti attempted it a few years back.

Yes I did and failed miserably. Managed about 2-3 months before admitting defeat. Big props to Zach if he can do it... it takes an insane amount of dedication.

 

[DunningKruger]

Hand 1 is fine. 2 and 3 probably less so, but yea it's true these players are folding a whole ton in spots like this, especially initially.

The SNE playing 200 thing is going to be really tough. That's one hell of a mental grind and although I wish you all the luck in the world I wouldn't bet even money on it. It doesn't leave you a lot of time for in depth study on your opponents and their history stats etc (something I always felt was underrated but particularly with the kind of volume you're shooting for). I know you can rock 200 without any real emphasis on that kind of thing. Hopefully you can get some 500 zoom in there too (although the regs are a lot tougher to exploit) which will help a lot with your goal.

I'll keep my eye on this thread from time to time. Too busy with my own autumn/winter grind to post a whole lot though.

 

[hackmeplz]

Yeah I just meant initially I'll be starting at 200 I'm hoping to be able to be playing more 400-600nl (including 500 zoom) just right now concentrate on a game with a lot lower swings and that I'm a lot more confident I have a decent edge in.

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Wasn't planning on it, but if you want to offer something I'll consider

Doubt I could offer anything that would be worth shit to you!

 

[stately7]

Really interesting man, thank you - esp re the big 2xpot overbets with semi-bluffs, great insights here.

As per JCgrind's comments, are you balancing these plays with value / nut hands? At one point I thought you said you will do it with sets too, but later that with nutted hands you will only small over bet. Seems like some risk if they catch on to this (a matter of time?), but does make sense that your 200NL regs can't call there without a big hand. Wild!

 

[JCgrind]

honestly, id still never be doing it with a value hand on the flop or turn. like, 1/5 times its a value hand tops.

 

[hackmeplz]

Yeah I've literally never 2x+ potted (went up to 3x pot once) with a value hand, and literally never gotten called, probably done it ~50 times now. 200nl zoom is just full of people who pot control way too much and then are never going to put a lot of money in with a marginal hand, it's just a flaw in how they think about poker and I'm exploiting it. I think balancing it by throwing in value hands (other than against particular opponents) would just cost me a bunch of money.

 

[stately7]

Yeah cool, I get it - too much risk they'll fold when you're rocking the goods! Not sure if this could work against the 20nl online regs I'm playing, but I'm sure going to give it a go at some point soon. I'd have to be sure opponent is able to lay down in that spot though.

Keep grinding!

 

[Matt Vaughan]

It's funny because where I play, I'd be stupid to ever overbet bluff. In fact, the overbet value jam is one of my favorite plays, because it gets called at such a higher frequency than I ever would have expected.

 

[vinylspiros]

It's funny because where I play, I'd be stupid to ever overbet bluff. In fact, the overbet value jam is one of my favorite plays, because it gets called at such a higher frequency than I ever would have expected.

I got to agree here. even on stars you get alot of callers when you overbet value jam either on turn or flop even if they have MP or even gutshots sometimes.

Its a good move.( except for the times they fold and you lose all the value) lol

 

[JCgrind]

thought youd appreciate this

poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2355563
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $14.73
BTN: $13.85
Hero (SB): $10.78
BB: $14.94
UTG: $15.76

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with 5

K

3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) 9

9

J

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.41, BB calls $0.41

Turn: ($1.42) 9

(2 players)
Hero bets $1.07, BB calls $1.07

River: ($3.56) Q

(2 players)
Hero bets $6
kostikkog: folds [Jh]
Uncalled bet ($6) returned to jchoop
jchoop collected $3.40 from pot

 

[LD1977]

Lies! No way a 10NL player folds a full house.

 

[vinylspiros]

Lies! No way a 10NL player folds a full house.

+1

 

[Matt Vaughan]

I actually can't fault villain for folding. From his perspective he probably thinks he's calling as a super bluff catch, or more likely, to chop. Choop, sorry to derail, but what Qx and 9x do you get to this river with? I'm guessing something like 9x 98+ (from villain's perspective 22 combos), and QT, QJ, KQ, possibly some AQ (a lot of combos)? So like... I can understand his fold.

 

[duggs]

Lies! No way a 10NL player folds a full house.

he is probably doing it in the home game

 

[Deco]

I went for a zach play today and 2.2x overbet bluffed. Got snapped by an underpair lol. <wrong spot>

 

[Matt Vaughan]

Lol new members trying to accumulate "quality posts."

smh.

 

[vinylspiros]

I went for a zach play today and 2.2x overbet bluffed. Got snapped by an underpair lol. <wrong spot>

LMFAO@ snapped by an underpair. (been there done that)

 

[hackmeplz]

kinda tired of getting ch/jammed on in those turn spots, still never sure wtf to do becasue if I check I get almost no credit on most rivers but if I bet I get ch/jammed on a decent amount and don't get to realize my equity at all. Not sure how good this is but as long as overbets still get respect regardless of what I rep this seems like an ok alternative.

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with Q:heart: 7:heart:
2 folds, CO raises to $5, Hero raises to $14, 2 folds, CO calls $9

Flop: ($31.00) 8:club: J:club: K:heart: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $17, CO calls $17

Turn: ($65.00) 6:heart: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($65.00) 4:club: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $111, CO folds

Final Pot: $65.00
Hero mucks Q:heart: 7:heart:
Hero wins $62.20
(Rake: $2.80)

 

[Matt Vaughan]

HH is uber gross ^

 

[vinylspiros]

kinda tired of getting ch/jammed on in those turn spots, still never sure wtf to do becasue if I check I get almost no credit on most rivers but if I bet I get ch/jammed on a decent amount and don't get to realize my equity at all. Not sure how good this is but as long as overbets still get respect regardless of what I rep this seems like an ok alternative.

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with Q<font color='red'>♥</font> 7<font color='red'>♥</font>
2 folds, CO raises to $5, Hero raises to $14, 2 folds, CO calls $9

Flop: ($31.00) 8<font color='black'>♣</font> J<font color='black'>♣</font> K<font color='red'>♥</font> (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $17, CO calls $17

Turn: ($65.00) 6<font color='red'>♥</font> (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($65.00) 4<font color='black'>♣</font> (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $111, CO folds

Final Pot: $65.00
Hero mucks Q<font color='red'>♥</font> 7<font color='red'>♥</font>
Hero wins $62.20
(Rake: $2.80)

Its brilliant. But how often does it get folds IYO? and how often does it have to get folds to be profitable. like 2 out of 3?

 

[hackmeplz]

has to work 111/(111+65) = 63%. I think it works at least 90%. That said doing that math is comparing it to checking whereas betting something like 40 surely is better than checking behind.

 

[stately7]

It's funny because where I play, I'd be stupid to ever overbet bluff. In fact, the overbet value jam is one of my favorite plays, because it gets called at such a higher frequency than I ever would have expected.

That's what I find so interesting about this discussion. At say 10NL or 20NL, I like the overbet value jam too, it often looks/feels like a bluff and I'm called even by weak draws or weird one pair hands - lol. So it must be a function of these higher stakes being played. But even then, the environment will differ - various sites, live or online. This game is so bloody situational it's ridiculous!