Folding AA preflop

[robwhufc]

you're being as bad as bloody zinzan used to be at the moment

That's out of order, my post was no worse than your first one. The thread is on it's 2nd page, so not everyone has your total lack of imagination. Get a thicker skin.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

don't worry meesh, you'll always be arsehole commander-in-chief until we decide to ban you.

edit: zzzzzzzzz

 

[mischman]

Chris, Not going to say anything back to Rob?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

no, misch, it's pretty boring. stop stirring stuff up, ty.

here's some maths btw (also pretty boring).

doyle - 45m
me - 5m
harrington - 10m
ivey - 10m

let's ignore the fact that this whole question is silly because people wouldn't be open shoving deep stacks and try and give ranges

ivey - AA-QQ/AK
harrington - AA-QQ
doyle - AA-QQ (heck i doubt he calls with QQ but w/e)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.681% 51.60% 10.08% 450514980 88054536.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 10.766% 07.11% 03.65% 62122824 31878600.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 13.777% 10.25% 03.53% 89482830 30806916.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 3: 13.777% 10.25% 03.53% 89482830 30806916.00 { QQ+ }

61% of the time we will win and our stack will be 20m
39% of the time we will lose and our stack will be 0

cEV(call) = (0.61*20m)+(0*0.39) = 18.3m
cEV(fold) = 0 (obviously)
cEV(call) = +13.3m

okay, so we're passing up 13million chips in EV if we fold, but we probably knew that. still, i had to say it.

now let's take a look at the specifics as regards actual $EV.

there is $19m to be won, $1m of which is guaranteed, so $18m to play for. there are 70m chips in play, of which, before cards are dealt, we have 5m, or ~7%.

we're guaranteed $1m and we have 7% (5/70) equity (assuming equal skill levels which is obviously flawed, but seeing as if we assume we're at a skill disadvantage

we should be more inclined to call and I'm going to prove we should call anyway, this is moot) in the remaining $18m. At hand start we have $1.26m in equity.

if we fold, three things can happen. let's boot up pstove again.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.920% 23.29% 02.63% 1111012080 125426752.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 37.040% 33.85% 03.19% 1614529260 152363284.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 37.040% 33.85% 03.19% 1614529260 152363284.00 { QQ+ }

doyle can win and we will get second guaranteed. this will happen 37% of the time, and we will have 5m of 70m in play but be guaranteed $4m. our equity will be the

$4m we're guaranteed plus 7% of the remaining $12m = $4.84m

harrington can win and we will get third guaranteed. this will happen 37% of the time too, we will have the same 5m of 70m chips. this time we're guaranteed $2m

and our equity is $2m plus 7% of the remaining $16m = $3.12m

ivey can win, we're third guaranteed, 26% of the time. our equity is as above, $3.12m

so if we fold, our equity is (0.37*4.84)+(0.37*3.12)+(0.26*3.12) = 1.79m + 1.15m + 0.81m = $3.75m = +$2.49m

so we gain $2.49m by folding

now let's look at what happens if we call.

39% of the time we lose and our equity is simply the $1m we take for 4th.

61% of the time we win. three things can happen if we win.

doyle can win the side pot, we're second guaranteed. again this will happen 37% of the time, but this time we will have 20m of the 70m in play. guaranteed $4m,

equity is $4m plus 28.5% (20/70) of the remaining $12m = $7.42m

harrington can win the side pot, we're third guaranteed. this happens 37% of the time, and we will have 20m of the 70m left. guaranteed $2m, equity is $2m plus

28.5% of the remaining $16m = $4.56m

ivey can win, yadda yadda yadda, happens 26% of the time, equity is $4.56m too.

so if we win our equity is (0.37*7.42)+(0.37*4.56)+(0.26*4.56) = 2.75m + 1.69m + 1.19m = $5.63m = +$4.37m

we win 61% of the time, so our actual equity if we call is (0.61*5.63m)+(0.39*1m) = $3.82m.

so on the face of it it looks close ($EV(call) is less than $100k more then $EV(fold)), but taking into account the fact that first place is worth a lot more than $12m, the top-heavy prize structuring, the fact that we're at a skill disadvantage and the fact that I rounded our win % down to 61% rather than up to the 62% it's closer to (I got 10 minutes into this before noticing, so I'm not gonna correct it) makes it a pretty basic call.

folding would be reasonable with only a couple of million chips or so though, obviously.

 

[mischman]

no, misch, it's pretty boring. stop stirring stuff up, ty.

.

Well Rob made a serious post, you replied with a troll post, Rob replied with a somehwhat serious post, you replied with a troll post. I cut in with a funny post, you changed the subject to trying to make a joke about me.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

now you're being boring. </ignore>

 

[mischman]

ALL I HEAR IS WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

 

[jimbo51]

i would call because if u win the pot than u can easy win the whole thing

risk 1million for 12 milllion evertime.

 

[Four Dogs]

You assumption is that if you win everyone else is still in but if you fold at least one of the other stacks is out. This is flawed, even though you are the short stack, if you win there is still a side pot with 2 other players all-in. Suppose Doyle wins the side pot? If you win the hand (which you should most of the time) then likely one or both of the other all-in players that was ahead of you will be out. The idfference is, you now have 4 times as many chips as you did before.

Look at it this way:

You win-Harrington wins side pot-You now have 4 times as many chips and Ivey is out and Doyles stack is reduced.

You win-Ivey wins side pot-You now have 4 times as many chips and Harrignton is out and Doyles stack is reduced.

You win-Doyle wins the side pot-You now have 4 times as many chips and both Ivey and Harrington are out. You pick up more total chips in the hand than Doyle does.

If you fold you may move up in money but with Doyle having such a huge chip lead you really have no chance. You going to outplay Brunson with a hugh chip disadvantage? I kinda doubt it.

Nice catch Snake. I realized my mistake while I was cruising around on my rider lawnmower. It's been bothering me for hours. I guess I just hoped noone would notice.

 

[MrEMan88]

if it were a bubble situation i'd fold, but not if i'm guaranteed a mil. I would figure at least on of them (probably 2) have an ace.

 

[GiveUpFishy]

this situation is completely unrealistic

 

[Broke31]

CALL your an idiot to fold

 

[Ronaldadio]

this situation is completely unrealistic

I`ll fogive you as you are a new member.

We had another `unrealistic` post about the first hand of wsop, u r delt AA, rest of table goes all-in. However, posts like this are thought provocing and, IMO, makes you think about more than "I have AA"

 

[Ronaldadio]

CALL your an idiot to fold

Until u go out in 4th and think "I knew I should have folded. I could have done so much with that extra $1m"

 

[edge-t]

Until u go out in 4th and think "I knew I should have folded. I could have done so much with that extra $1m"

You'll stand to get even more, if you win the hand, quadruple your chip stack, and maybe 1 or 2 players bust out.

 

[Wolfpack43ACC]

This is really a dumb question, and is not one that should include the crunching of #'s. Percentages or not you have to make the call. If you are beat who cares? You put your chips into the middle with the best possible starting hand, period! No 65% this, 32% that because you are holding AA. You push all your chips in proudly, then let them fall where they may. End of story no if's and's or but's about it.

 

[Ronaldadio]

This is really a dumb question, and is not one that should include the crunching of #'s. Percentages or not you have to make the call. If you are beat who cares? You put your chips into the middle with the best possible starting hand, period! No 65% this, 32% that because you are holding AA. You push all your chips in proudly, then let them fall where they may. End of story no if's and's or but's about it.

I would care. The point here, IMO, is not a pure poker question. It`s like being on the bubble in the same situation.

Last year, in a MTT online, I was on the bubble with AA. I was very comfortable, 3rd place, 11 left. $50 entry, 10th paid about $700, 1st about $4k or so. I raised, sb (2nd place) reraised, chip leader goes all in. Another guy with about the same as me then goes all in.

I had sat and thought that if I go out now I bubble, with 2nd place to act. I did call. I turn AA, the guy in roughly the same place as me turns AA, chip leader KQ, other guy QQ. Guy with same chips as me hits flush, chip leader gets straight. Something like that.

Anyway, I go out in 11th (bubble), 2nd place guy goes out in 10th, chip leader remains chip leader and the guy with same stack as me goes 2nd. So it cost me $700 for not thinking and guarenteeing I would be in the $$$.

I am possibly scared by this.

I`m not saying in every situation I would fold AA, but in the scenario we are talking about I would prefer to be a live coward than a dead hero!!!

 

[robwhufc]

This is really a dumb question, and is not one that should include the crunching of #'s. Percentages or not you have to make the call. If you are beat who cares? You put your chips into the middle with the best possible starting hand, period! No 65% this, 32% that because you are holding AA. You push all your chips in proudly, then let them fall where they may. End of story no if's and's or but's about it.

If you were in final 4 of SNG paying top 3, you had 15 chips following big all in loss, your opponents had 5,000, 3,000 and 2,000 and blinds were 200/400, would you go all-in if UTG?

 

[Mojomax747]

Sixty-Nine posts later and im yet to read.........what happens if Ivey and Harrington split the pot.
Folding your aces to move up in the prizes would be making you seriously ill right now wouldnt it.
Still in 4th place with your nearest rivals now having THREE times the amount of chips that you have instead of two.
Folding aces here does not guarantee you move up a spot in the prize money.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

The pot gets split between two ranges of AK/AA-QQ and AA-QQ a little over 2% of the time - it doesn't really happen often enough for us to be worrying too much over it.

 

[Just1morefish]

I for one would like to thank the op for this post, it has given me a number of things to think about. With that said, I would fold, i believe the chance to move up 1 or 2 postions would out weigh any other consideration. Yes you could triple up or more, but the 98% chance to move up one or more postions makes the call. Yes being short stacked could make it impossible to make a come back, but just 2 or 3 all-ins could also put you back in the game. One other point, at the end of the day if you didn't win you have a lot more money.. That means a lot more games i can get in.
Just a thought from "Just1morefish"

 

[Mojomax747]

The pot gets split between two ranges of AK/AA-QQ and AA-QQ a little over 2% of the time - it doesn't really happen often enough for us to be worrying too much over it.

With the action described, who is to say they both dont have A-K and a favourable board to beat Brunson.
Like i said, folding aces does NOT guarantee a move up in the prize money whatever the percentages.
KK v KK, QQ v QQ, while the percentages are low ands the odds of such players actually playing the way OP describes ( with these hands ) are low, they are not beyond the realms of possibility.
What if the board comes JT987 for example with Brunso holding KK versus Ivey and Harrington holding QQ each.
I think with 4 players remaining and 2 going all in and the 3rd calling their pushes and you holding AA in the BB yet to act, is somewhat of a very low percentage scenario to begin with so in the hypothetical sense its right to include the chop in this example.

 

[Ronaldadio]

I for one would like to thank the op for this post, it has given me a number of things to think about.

Thanks for that - that was the idea of the post (against what one or two others said!!!)

 

[Ronaldadio]

so in the hypothetical sense its right to include the chop in this example.

I agree, however, when taking % into account, I`ll let you bet all your money on a split pot and I`ll bet mine on an outright winner of this specific pot.

 

[Mojomax747]

I agree, however, when taking % into account, I`ll let you bet all your money on a split pot and I`ll bet mine on an outright winner of this specific pot.

Yes i agree, i just wanted to highlight that it was not a nailed on move up in the prize money by folding AA.

As nobody had mentioned it up till my post, i felt it a duty to do so.