Folding AA preflop

[Ronaldadio]

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/icm-87122/ - I searched to find it.

Thanks for that.

I still say I fold to guarentee the extra $1m big ones though

IMO, the gambler in me has a split personality and becomes an accountant

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

So this is how you finish if you call:
50% time 4th and win 1 mill
10% time 3rd for $2 mill (bad beats puts you here)
25% time 2nd for $ 6 mill (where you should finish after winning with AA)
15% time 1st for $12 mill (keep that good card run going) plus the millions upon millions of dollars on top of that from sponsorship deals etc

fyp. also AA has ~63% equity against three other random hands, and ~68% vs three ranges of AA-QQ/AK - I don't know where you're getting your less than 50% from.

bbb you're probably right in saying it's a moot point because in this artificial situation it's always going to be a call. some blind/stack combinations make it a more obvious call than others, though.

 

[t1riel]

You're already in the money and you have the best hand preflop. It's a call every day of the week and twice on Sunday. If you're not calling with this hand, what hand would you call with?

 

[dj11]

Many hour later I come to see that Titans did some math and shows whatever he portends to show, and all it does is leave me wondering what hand would one want to be playing in the above situation? T2 maybe? no no no, that hand is already taken.......

 

[mrsnake3695]

Anyone that says they would fold this wouldn't be at the final table of the wsop ME anyway.

 

[mrsnake3695]

There was a smoewhat similar situation in last years final table if you remember. It was down to 3 and the young guy in second place (forgot his name) had a straight flush draw after the flop. The short stack went all in with his top pair and Jamie gold went all-in with a straight draw. Now the young guy folded, Gold won and he got second. However, if he called he would have won (the Qs would have given him the flush) and he would have been alot closer to golds chip count heads up and might have won. In his case folding got hm second but without enough chips to do anything with. There is a huge difference between 1st and second when you factor in everything else that goes with winning.

You should be playing to win not just move up a spot or 2. Calling with AA gives you a better chance to win so you should take it without hesitation.

 

[vanquish]

It's likely that the three players might be holding each other's outs, so the equity for AA would probably be even higher than first thought.

 

[blankoblanco]

Of course it's a call, yatta yatta yatta, what other people have said. But here's my expert readz in addition: Phil's all-in was a bluff with 93, Dan Harrington's calling him with AK which we crush, and Doyle just wants to gamble with T2. Doyle will make tens full on the river

 

[titans4ever]

fyp. also AA has ~63% equity against three other random hands, and ~68% vs three ranges of AA-QQ/AK - I don't know where you're getting your less than 50% from.

Yeah, looking at it now 50% does seem low, i ran it through a calculator quick and must have done something wrong.

 

[Ronaldadio]

Anyone that says they would fold this wouldn't be at the final table of the WSOP ME anyway.

I`m bound to say I disagree.

Every hand in poker represents a different challenge. That different challenge normally depends on a variety of variances.

In the main, however, it comes down to cash. This post is similar but different to the post someone put out about being dealt AA in the very hand of the WSOP and u r on the bb and all of the others at the table go all in before you.

In that situation I call - I have nothing to lose.

This hand however is different. IMO it would be somwhat reckless to call. U might win the hand but if u fold u win $1m.

However, the reason for the edit. If u r happy with $1m and the extra mil won`t make a difference I suppose u would call.

 

[Four Dogs]

Can't believe I'm saying this, but I think I fold. Sorry snake. I'm short stacked, so even if I win the hand, I'm not busting anyone. I'd still have to finish a table with Brunson, Harrington and Ivey. I fold and there's a very strong chance that I move up 2 places. If you think a piece of bling is worth millions of dollars than call. Anyone playing these tournaments for a living though should fold.

Oh, this too. You're high if you don't think you're up against the other 2 aces. Best case scenario....a chop.

 

[edge-t]

Can't believe I'm saying this, but I think I fold. Sorry snake. I'm short stacked, so even if I win the hand, I'm not busting anyone. I'd still have to finish a table with Brunson, Harrington and Ivey. I fold and there's a very strong chance that I move up 2 places. If you think a piece of bling is worth millions of dollars than call. Anyone playing these tournaments for a living though should fold.

Oh, this too. You're high if you don't think you're up against the other 2 aces. Best case scenario....a chop.

You're a turn-coat FD. It's more likely Phil Ivey's going in with some Ace-rags(stealing the blinds), Dan Harrington's got something like AK/KK/AA(more likely KK, since you have the AA). Dolly(he doesn't have the stamina anymore) is just bored and tired. He wants to end it fast and go home.

Call.

 

[TheChaosPath]

You play the game to come in 1st, not 2nd or 3rd. If you don't call with Aces then somethings not right.

 

[kmarie2007]

pocket AA

I call because I want to see a great flop.

 

[Kenzie 96]

I'm calling allin preflop with poc A's at the final table of the WSOP main event cause I'm a donk.

 

[titans4ever]

We have no stack sizes, no blind levels and a huge variance between 1st and 2nd. You have 3 opponents who have you outclassed 10 fold (that alone says you should be all-in preflop everytime so you can't be outplayed post flop). Everything about this thread is has bad example written all over it. You can't do any math, and yes there is a formula for this whole situation that will show you the proper play for the long term, to see what is the right move is. The problem with even the math is that you would have to be in this same situation more than once to have the right move work in your favor.

You have 4 possible outcomes:
-You call and win, good now you have better chance to take first and hopefully one of the other middle stacks got busted along the way. People say you got so lucky to have AA when everyone else pushed all-in.
-You call and lose. Opps, oh well, you are now a millionaire.
-You fold and would have won, and one or both middle stacks gets busted and you move up the pay scale. You just made another 1-3 million.
-You fold and would have lost. Now you look like a genius on TV and will be asked over and over for years to come how could you layed it down. You answer will always be "I learned everything I know about poker on Cardschat.com. Thanks, Nick and the gang."

 

[mrsnake3695]

Can't believe I'm saying this, but I think I fold. Sorry snake. I'm short stacked, so even if I win the hand, I'm not busting anyone. I'd still have to finish a table with Brunson, Harrington and Ivey. I fold and there's a very strong chance that I move up 2 places. If you think a piece of bling is worth millions of dollars than call. Anyone playing these tournaments for a living though should fold.

Oh, this too. You're high if you don't think you're up against the other 2 aces. Best case scenario....a chop.

You assumption is that if you win everyone else is still in but if you fold at least one of the other stacks is out. This is flawed, even though you are the short stack, if you win there is still a side pot with 2 other players all-in. Suppose Doyle wins the side pot? If you win the hand (which you should most of the time) then likely one or both of the other all-in players that was ahead of you will be out. The idfference is, you now have 4 times as many chips as you did before.

Look at it this way:

You win-Harrington wins side pot-You now have 4 times as many chips and Ivey is out and Doyles stack is reduced.

You win-Ivey wins side pot-You now have 4 times as many chips and Harrignton is out and Doyles stack is reduced.

You win-Doyle wins the side pot-You now have 4 times as many chips and both Ivey and Harrington are out. You pick up more total chips in the hand than Doyle does.

If you fold you may move up in money but with Doyle having such a huge chip lead you really have no chance. You going to outplay Brunson with a hugh chip disadvantage? I kinda doubt it.

 

[robwhufc]

why are people actually trying to answer this question when we don't even have the chip stacks and blinds?

Cant you use your initiative, it's a hypothetical question after all? 70 million chips (assuming this is main event). Brunson has "massive" lead so 45 million? 5 million for you and 10 million for the other 2? Blinds are never that high on the final table, so aren't really relevant.

I'd be happy with 3rd here, and folding gives me the best chance.

 

[robwhufc]

You play the game to come in 1st, not 2nd or 3rd. If you don't call with Aces then somethings not right.

You've just lost an all-in against an almost identical stack with 4 left, blinds are 400,000/800,000, your opponents have got $10 Million, $15 million and $25 million, and you've got $100,000. You've got 2 hands before you're back in the blinds, and you're 3 opponents are all in. You call with AA?

The ONLY chance you've got of avoiding 4th place is 2 fold the 2 hands before the blinds and hope others knock each other out. The OP is less extreme thhan this, but surely there's a cut off point where folding ANY hand is better than playing? Or judging from the majority of responses on the thread, maybe not?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

did you even read the next post i made, or did you just see my first post, think "OMG HERE'S MY CHANCE TO BE ANNOYING", and instapost?

yeah, thought so.

 

[premierplayer]

I would not fold AA in this spot. You spent days working towards the final table and you get AA, you play that hand. If it gets cracked at least you went down fighting, for me it would be an insta call, stand up and pace!

 

[mrsnake3695]

You've just lost an all-in against an almost identical stack with 4 left, blinds are 400,000/800,000, your opponents have got $10 Million, $15 million and $25 million, and you've got $100,000. You've got 2 hands before you're back in the blinds, and you're 3 opponents are all in. You call with AA?

The ONLY chance you've got of avoiding 4th place is 2 fold the 2 hands before the blinds and hope others knock each other out. The OP is less extreme thhan this, but surely there's a cut off point where folding ANY hand is better than playing? Or judging from the majority of responses on the thread, maybe not?

Everybody seems to forget that just because you call that doesn't mean that one or more of your outher opponents aren't still going to get eliminated in the hand. There will still be a side pot with 2 opponents all-in that one or both will lose.


Let's say you have 1 mill
Ivey and Harrington have 2 mill
Doyle has 10 mil (I know there will be more but for simplicity's sake I used these numbers.

You win and Doyle wins-You have 4 mill, Doyle has 11 mil, Ivey and harrington out

You win and Ivey wins-You have 4 mill, Harrington out, Ivey has 3 mill, Doyle has 8 mill.

See what I mean. By playing the hand you now have a real shot at winning and another player is going to be eliminated if you fold or not.

If you fold you have almost no shot at winning. It's about winning not finishing second or third instead of fourth.

 

[robwhufc]

did you even read the next post i made.

Eh? Your next post - I quote "I dont get it?".

What are you on about?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

you know what i mean, you're being as bad as bloody zinzan used to be at the moment

 

[mischman]

I'm jealous!