Folding AA preflop

What do you do and why


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Ronaldadio

Ronaldadio

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Hi all.

I know some of you will be saying "not again" but as I have not seen one of these polls for a while I want to start it again to see if things have changed.

So regular members, please don`t be nasty - its a bit of fun ;)

I personaly think this kind of post helps new players to think about more than just the cards they are delt.

Here goes.

wsop, Holdem 4 players left. (Live on TV)
Prize money
1st $12m
2nd $4m
3rd $2m
4th $1m.

U r delt AA in the big blind. U r short stack, 2nd (Phil Ivey) and 3rd place (Dan Harrington) are about the same, both with twice as many chips as you, chip leader (Doyle Brunson) has a massive chip lead.

UTG, Phil, all in, Dan all in, Doyle thinks for a while, then calls.

What do you do and why???
 
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tenbob

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Oh no's not again :)

Considering I'm a relatively rich fcuker already, I call.

Edited: ****er to fcuker to get around the filter.
 
edge-t

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Awwww-in!!! Think of the 12 million!! What better time to quadruple than now?! You're going in with the best hand Preflop!

It's true you can probably fold and watch either Dan harrington or Phil Ivey get eliminated, but I'd choose to go all-in.

P.S. Did I mention you're on TV? People around the world's gonna see you fold AA preflop.
 
Ronaldadio

Ronaldadio

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Awwww-in!!! Think of the 12 million!! What better time to quadruple than now?! You're going in with the best hand Preflop!

It's true you can probably fold and watch either Dan harrington or Phil Ivey get eliminated, but I'd choose to go all-in.

Thanks for bringing this post back into line in the way it was intended.

I knew the `old stagers` would have a go!!!

Possibly time for some ppl to find another site if this one is getting so boring with the same questions?
 
robwhufc

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What do you do and why???
I'd fold, there's probably more chance of getting $4m (or even $2 Million) by getting out of the hand and hoping 1 or 2 are knocked out, than by tripling up.
 
Ronaldadio

Ronaldadio

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This coming from a guy who honestly thinks he should fold XxXx Preflop cause he took a bad beat froma a worst hand.
As identified by stormswa, I was taking the piss - having fun - if you are familiar with this emotion.

Maybe one of the rules in the forum should be "Before posting anything you must make sure they have been authorised by mishman. He might get annoyed"

I take it your 2,838 posts have been completely different???

Remember, you have an option. IF YOU DON`T LIKE THE TITLE OF A POST DON`T READ IT - Simple really?
 
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mischman

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Seriously, search the damn topic. There are atleast 3 threads i know of that are on a subject along these lines with great informative posts.
 
titans4ever

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Even AA against 3 other players has less than a 50% chance to hold up. You have 2 choices and I will do the math and show you what would happen either way. i voted fold before I started writing this post.

So this is how you finish if you call:
50% time 4th and win 1 mill
10% time 3rd for $2 mill (bad beats puts you here)
25% time 2nd for $ 6 mill (where you should finish after winning with AA)
15% time 1st for $12 mill (keep that good card run going)

1,000,000x .5 + 2,000,000 x .1 + 4,000,000 x .25 + 12,000,000 x .15 = 3.5 mill ave winnings

folding here I would expect something like this
0% finish 4th (someone will bust out)
60% finish 3rd for 2 mill (shortstacked against 2 larger stacks)
35% finish 2nd for 4 mil (you double up or triple up once and are back in and keep it going)
5% finish 1st for 12 mil (card gods loved you from then on)

2,000,000 x .6 + 4,000,000 x .35 + 12,000,000 x .5 = 3.6 mill ave earnings


Averages on guess finishing makes this look like a real coin flip and won't matter either way. I voted fold and would average an extra 100,000 over the long run by folding.

Anyone else want to try and make a longer and more meaningless post over some wierd question.

That is how you would do the math to see where you would finish. I could get alot more specific if you had only given chip counts instead of estimates.:D :D :D :D :D
 
Ronaldadio

Ronaldadio

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Anyone else want to try and make a longer and more meaningless post over some wierd question.

That is how you would do the math to see where you would finish. I could get alot more specific if you had only given chip counts instead of estimates.:D :D :D :D :D

I think you would have to take into account that the maths might work but how often are you going to get to the final table in the WSOP?
 
Ronaldadio

Ronaldadio

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Seriously, search the damn topic. There are atleast 3 threads i know of that are on a subject along these lines with great informative posts.
I`ve had a chance to cool down.

I don`t want to fall out mishc. The difference between me and you could be what we are aiming to get out of this site.

I have zero friends that are interested in poker, so for me it is more of a delayed chat/ conversation with `friends online` who play poker. I`m not looking to get specific answers to specific questions, although the feedback is good.

So possibly it`s me on the wrong site, I don`t know,

Having said that, at the time of writing, 7 people have voted on the poll with 6 seeming to be happy to discuss the topic.
 
robwhufc

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So this is how you finish if you call:
50% time 4th and win 1 mill
10% time 3rd for $2 mill (bad beats puts you here)
25% time 2nd for $ 6 mill (where you should finish after winning with AA)
15% time 1st for $12 mill (keep that good card run going)

1,000,000x .5 + 2,000,000 x .1 + 4,000,000 x .25 + 12,000,000 x .15 = 3.5 mill ave winnings

folding here I would expect something like this
0% finish 4th (someone will bust out)
60% finish 3rd for 2 mill (shortstacked against 2 larger stacks)
35% finish 2nd for 4 mil (you double up or triple up once and are back in and keep it going)
5% finish 1st for 12 mil (card gods loved you from then on)

2,000,000 x .6 + 4,000,000 x .35 + 12,000,000 x .5 = 3.6 mill ave earnings


Averages on guess finishing makes this look like a real coin flip and won't matter either way. I voted fold and would average an extra 100,000 over the long run by folding.
Excellent work!

The results here are skewed by the 1st place prize money being so much higher than 2nd - if you got $8 Million instead of $12 million for first, the average earnings on your figures would be $2,050,000 for calling and $3,000,000 for folding. Taking into account the remote chance of you winning (15% and 5% seem fairish), it's a clear fold.
 
titans4ever

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Even AA against 3 other players has less than a 50% chance to hold up. You have 2 choices and I will do the math and show you what would happen either way. i voted fold before I started writing this post.

So this is how you finish if you call:
50% time 4th and win 1 mill
10% time 3rd for $2 mill (bad beats puts you here)
25% time 2nd for $ 6 mill (where you should finish after winning with AA)
15% time 1st for $12 mill (keep that good card run going)

1,000,000x .5 + 2,000,000 x .1 + 4,000,000 x .25 + 12,000,000 x .15 = 3.5 mill ave winnings

folding here I would expect something like this
0% finish 4th (someone will bust out)
60% finish 3rd for 2 mill (shortstacked against 2 larger stacks)
35% finish 2nd for 4 mil (you double up or triple up once and are back in and keep it going)
You will probably finish 2nd even more. I forgot that the big stack could knock out both during the hand. This would actually push the ave winnings here higher.
5% finish 1st for 12 mil (card gods loved you from then on)

2,000,000 x .6 + 4,000,000 x .35 + 12,000,000 x .5 = 3.6 mill ave earnings now it would be closer to 3.7 to 3.9 mil


Averages on guess finishing makes this look like a real coin flip and won't matter either way. I voted fold and would average an extra 100,000 over the long run by folding. I now think fold is the right option. My bad doing this the first time.

Anyone else want to try and make a longer and more meaningless post over some wierd question.

That is how you would do the math to see where you would finish. I could get alot more specific if you had only given chip counts instead of estimates.:D :D :D :D :D

made a correction after thinking about it. Editing time was already past.

P.S. I would just be happy to be in that situation no matter what with those players.
 
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bocasas

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I understand the maths but I would probably go all in, I would be ashamed of folding a pair of aces on TV, plus If you are short stacked there are very few chances of getting another top pair that allowz you to keep in the race for the first prize......
 
dj11

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I have only ever read one good valid reason to fold AA preflop, and that would be that you are on or very near the bubble, with enough chips to get ITM.

You are way past this here, what possible reason could anyone provide to think they would fold here. Something brilliant no doubt, like waiting for a checked bb and flopping the nuts?

4 folks left, the blinds are gonna eat you alive in 2 rounds or so.


XXXXXXXXX

As an aside, I'm gonna guess we have all stepped away for some period and come back to a game and checked our recent hands, which were auto-folded, and found we missed the opportunity to play an AA. I have done it probably a dozen times. Eventually I realized that at least those Aces didn't get cracked, and I was still there.
 
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Dorkus Malorkus

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why are people actually trying to answer this question when we don't even have the chip stacks and blinds?
 
bubbasbestbabe

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why are people actually trying to answer this question when we don't even have the chip stacks and blinds?


For the same reason that one of us is going to be sitting at that final table with pocket As.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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i don't get it :(
 
arkadiy

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I'm shortstacked either way, I need a double / triple up. What better chance do I have than with pocket aces? Ya 2 people in the pot but for all I know they have pocket Qs and pocket Ks.

I'm sorry but I don't think any pro in the world has ever folded AA pre-flop. If they suck out, then hey you know you couldn't of done anything else.

But there is something to think about, by folding you at least get an extra $1m but if you win, you get an extra $3m and a chance at $12m

Edit: Just read the part where they have twice as many chips as me, it really makes no difference then and I might fold. If I call and win, I get 3rd place and am shortstacked / close to 2nd chip stack. If I fold I am 100% positive I am getting 3rd place but then I have no chance at 2nd or 1st.....
 
Ronaldadio

Ronaldadio

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why are people actually trying to answer this question when we don't even have the chip stacks and blinds?
The general poin Chris is this.

If u fold u r guarenteed to jump at least one spot, so from $1-$2m, possibly to second + $4m if the large stack busts the other two.
 
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