Folding AA preflop

[FA Berning]

Being new, thanks for having this discussion again!

 

[Ldpokercj5]

You call. Because you are ahead... You might not be a 70% favor or anything but you are still ahead of everyone else. You are getting 3/1 odds on your aces and you definitely have about 33% chance to win and you are also the short stack and if you fold here you might as well drop from the tourny if your waiting for a better situation/ hand. This is definitely a Positive EV move.

This may be reckless but if you have the proper odds to win the hand and make a profit than you definitely take it. So call here definitely.

 

[tas02]

This is a really old discussion, but it's interesting.

I don't usually like playing aces against 3 opponents, because you are generally only about 50% to win. However, most of the hands that are likely to beat you probably aren't in play here.

Remember, you are up against 3 world-class players in the most important hand any of you has ever played.

The first all-in world-class player probably had at least AK or a big pair, both of which you crush. The first person that called him wasn't getting odds to call with anything short of a pair or maybe AK, especially with two players yet to act.

The third player is problematic, because he's now getting odds for a lot of hands that could be trouble to your aces, mostly middle suited connectors. But would a world-class player really risk it all in this situation with 10-9s? I'm thinking not. It's much more likely he too has a pair (frankly, though, it's unlikely a world-class player would call in this situation with anything less than aces).

Anyway, IMHO, in this particular (unlikely) situation, I think your aces are still a big favorite to win. Call.

 

[nyy4life42]

I don't care the situation, I would never fold AA preflop.

 

[exrivera]

Imagine if you fold and then later on, while watching on tv, you see that everyone else folded horrible hands! That would hurt. I would see it as a great opportunity to gain some momentum and build my shortstack to first place! If you fold that hand you're playing like all you want is third place... I'd would be playing for the bracelet!

 

[jdeliverer]

This thread was a year old...

 

[aliengenius]

This thread was a year old...

but pcs whore revived it:

well, i posted to day to the same question for a 22$ SNG and said call, but in this case folding definitely gives you 1 or even 2 million dollar more in prize money (as long as one of the middle stacks is out. now i want to see who gives up on a sure million bucks for a 50-50 shot? i folded.

!

 

[Strong Dollar1]

You call with the best hand Pre flop, and just hope that they hold up. You can get any better situation to go your way, so push, and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Styrofoam]

since the discussion was revived....

I think with the action the way it goes, you're up against 2 pairs and a BIG connector AK or something... either way, you're not up against 3 random hands, you can pretty much discern what you're up against... its an easy call. You're in a position to win 3x more than you already had... and one of the medium stacks is likely going to be out or crippled anyways. If you're really going to play to win this tournament, you call. Its not even a hard choice.

 

[pickemgenius]

You call. Get your money in with the best hand everytime....

 

[markpro]

You have to think about this!! What do yøu think they havEE! If someone goes allin being that class of player first of all, he has to have a pocket monster!! (and i dont mean pokemon)... Then if someone that great calls he has to also have a pocket monster!!! (i still dont mean pokemon)... and if doyle brundson alssoo callsss, after someone went allin and a call after that, he sure as hell as a pocket monster!! My read would definitly be that someone out there has to have kings, someone has a good chance of sharing your aces!!! and the first raiser probably has either ace king, or somehtinkg like Queens!! You are already in the money, so your objective is to win as much as you can. I know your thinking that if you fold, someone will surely be out, but think of it this way.... the odds of you wining are like over 50 percent cause everyone probably has each others cards!! You will probably win! or maybe even tie with somene hahaha. If you lose, it happens, but if you win, you are in great shape, and instead of getting something like 4th or 3rd, you have a shot for first! and let me tell you, the money difference between these places in exponental!!! Call for sure! plus your friend will make fun of you when they see you on tv if you fold lolll. Good Luck at the tables!

 

[RickH2005]

FOLD!

Because dj just had a heart attack and I had to accompany him to the hospital!

 

[asianpride54]

If you had AA who in their right mind would fold no doubt the best hand starting hand / preflop hand in poker. I would definately call and if i was playing in a real cash tournament i would throw all my chips in, in a insta-call i would ruin my perfectly stacked chips in that call.

 

[Woodyspoker]

All-in what else can you do!

 

[FiestaDeluxe]

Call of course.."What would JEESUS DO?!?" xD

 

[godoy]

well, I think I should call, if I fold I can get like third place or maybe second if the biggest stack beat the two other but I wouldn't have a chance against the first place, so I would call and pray to the best hand pre flop win

 

[antizzle23]

i agree exactly with edge-t

 

[Cowboy8112]

You call with AA, all the time every time. If you are not goin gto play the best starting hand in poker, why play at all?

 

[azbo]

This post made me consider several things.

First, the math is wrong. You're about 52-65% likely to win this pot and quadruple up which automatically takes you to second place chip count wise. One of the others is still out of the game so you moved to 3rd for sure and if doyle has the second best hand the other two are out, and you're guaranteed 2nd.

Second, folding the best hand possible to move up one position in the money really shows a lack of the intestinal fortitude required to be in the money at the final table of the ME.

Let's put some numbers to it just to get a rough idea of what you're talking about.

Phil - 4M
Dan - 4M
You - 2M
Doyle - 12M (3 times second and more than half the chips in play seems like a massive lead to me, obviously as his chip stack goes up folding becomes more palatable but for the most part it's not really an option)

here are your possible outcomes:
you win ~60% (it's probably lower than this but not much)
dan 13%
doyle 13%
phil 13%

if you win and either phil or dan has next best hand you have this chip distribution:
you - 8M
doyle - 8M
d/p - 6M
that's a pretty positive outcome I would say and gives you about a 40% chance of taking down 1st, a 40% chance of taking down 2nd and a 20% chance of finishing 3rd. (roughly 2 times in 5 this is the outcome that will happen)
if you win and doyle has second best the chips are like this:
you 8M
doyle 14M
this guarantees you to finish second and has about a 1 in 5 chance of being the result. This also gives you about a 30% chance of taking home the top prize.

your payouts are skewed toward first more heavily than the wsop actually pays out but in any event given my math and chip stacks here is the actual math not titans somewhat random math.

In the event you fold AA, you're guaranteed 3rd, and a 1/3 chance at guaranteed 2nd. In the former case, stack wise you would be 2m against 12m and 8m if dan or phil won and 2m against 20m if doyle won. So lets assume at that point your chances of moving up are about 5% in both cases, it's actually a lot less in the last case but we'll assume that offsets the slim chance you'll win in the case where it's 2M vs 8M vs 12M.
1/3(95%(4m) + 5%(12m)) + 2/3(95%(2m)+5%(4M)) = 2.85M

If you call:
40%(1M) + 33%(.3(12M) + .7(4M)) + 67%(.2(2M) + .4(4M) + .4(12M)) = 6.93M

this means your seat at the table is increased in value about 250% by calling. Clearly you guarantee making more money by folding (and 1M is no joke) but your upside of calling with aces under these circumstances far outweighs the downside. If someone offered to flip a coin with you and offered 250% on your bet would you bet alot or a little?

Statements like "I will never ever ever fold AA ever ever preflop" need to be addressed. As pointed out Sklansky has an example in TPfAP.

In Sklansy's example the stacks are as follows:

leader: $2 million
opponent B: $1 million
opponent C: $1 million
opponent D: $1 million
us: $30,000

Prizes:
1st: $1.5 million
2nd: $1 million
3rd: $700,000
4th: $500,000
5th: $300,000

Blinds: $10,000/$20,000

In this example the three opponents with one million each are all in (chip leader is not).

So you can see that we are way behind our opponents, and have a very low M as well. Sklansy points out that our equity even if we win is still very low (only $120,000 chips), but our actual dollar amount of winnings will increase greatly if we fold.

That's not quite the situation assumed in the thread (we were not given specifics), as the TPAP is about as extreme a hypothetical as you can get.

Anyway, the point is valid that there could be a correct time to fold AA. There can't be any arguing that, despite some non-thinking posters who can't look beyond zomg I have AA, gotta get my $ in goood. It's not a cash game, so ICM calculations like this need to be taken into account.

This isn't even remotely the situation presented. I understand it makes total sense to fold any hand here even trip aces post flop I would laydown here because 2 people are exiting for sure and your stack is so small you're virtually a nonfactor. In the situation presented if you win you're guaranteed to be in 2nd place stack wise and you might possibly be guaranteed second place money as well. There's a giant difference between being 3% of the next place stack and 50% of the next two stacks. These two situations have virtually nothing in common (other than this one makes an extreme example of a situation where it's obvious you should lay it down).

A more difficult proposition here would be if the blinds are 100k and 200k and you're on the button would you call with AA in this situation.

i answered call. then i read all the math and got lost a little. do the pot odds really say fold? i would like to understand what the mathematical answer says is correct, but at the end of the day, I would probably call regardless of the math.

Unless doyle has more than 85% of the chips, the odds probably say call. I didn't take the time to figure it out exactly but it's close to that.

If doyle has 50-60% of the chips you're getting a great deal, 5 to 2 on your money roughly.

 

[willie beaman]

There is no way of folding aces preflop. However, there comes a time when you have to throw them away postflop. It also depends on how you bet and how your opponent plays you.

 

[azbo]

Read your reply this morning Chris but been busy at work. I also read your "linky" and it fine, it makes sense. I'm continuing this discussion not because I don't believe you, actually you sold me now that you'd really call, but just to voice my opinion. I agree, I also like the way this thread is going, particularly if we're going to do so using gray matter rather than sky high spikes of testosterone.


About the sponsorships that you don't want to drop, of course you stand correct when you say winning this thing brings a lot to the table. Heck, not too long ago I read an interview to Greg Raymer, where he said that the day after he won, he went to L.A. to sign some sort of contract with a P.R. agency and started profiting immediately from the ME win, that's how fast it happens. If you win the ME after sat through Full Tilt Poker, you get $10M in 10 years, although they take over your image rights (Watkinson was actually in that situation this year, so he was the one who had the most at stake in that FT). But all these extra benefits go only to the winner, runner up gets zilch, so winning that hand doesn't really give you all this, just a better chance. Honestly, given who we are up against, how much of a better chance do we really have? There is 1 more note to add to this. In Ron's scenario we are down to the final 4 players. If you qualified through PokerStars, folding will also give you a garanteed extra $150k for coming 3rd or 2nd, which you don't get if you come in 4th. That's what I meant when I posted before that it works both ways, but your point is obviously valid.


Lets get to the real subject at hand here. In my very first post in this thread, I said the call/fold decision heavily relies on what money means to you, that sure extra million (and maybe 3, not probable though cause Doyle made the call with T2 lol) you gain by folding. Essentially, we're talking about the same thing, with the difference that you exposed it in a more elegant fashion and you introduced the quite fancy term "utility theory" (never heard it before but I love it). So of course you're right, how can I argue it if I basically said the same thing? The whole reason I started this is because of the poll results and a couple of comments that were made which were clearly implying that who voted fold was an idiot. Many times, in my experience, life has proven to me how a high percentage of people, regardless of their wealth, when faced with a decision where its money vs something else (be that glory, family, job, friends or whatever), will choose the money. I'm not going to get into the psychological details of why this happens. Now, I understand how it may be an aberration to compare life events to a poker hand. Fair enough, lets stick to poker. Actually lets do even better, lets stick to the ME.


Enough in this thread was said about Paul Wasika's flop fold with an OESFD, which is a hand, to quote Phil Gordon, "that you should go to war with". If he puts his chips in on that monster flop, he's a favored to win the hand. He folded in the hopes to gain an extra 2 million, which indeed happened, although it turned out that had he called he would have won the hand. So, it shows that when someone actually had a chance on the ME FT to choose the utility theory, he threw it out the window, choosing the money. Because he liked the idea of taking home $6M rather than $4M. What I'm trying to get at is that there is no way in hell that 86% of 64 voters would make this call. I'm not going to single out anyone in particular, but I'm pretty dam sure I'm right. Most of all, some comments are out of line.


Last thing is my analogy with deal making. Although its a stretch and I'll admit it, some comments on this hand turn it into a legitimate argument. Statements like "I play to win, not to come in 3rd ", you have to admit are a clear contradiction when you consider the amount of deals that happen every day, in many cases for a few hundred dollars difference. Some of the reasoning for deals that you mention, such as reducing variance, can be also made on Ron's hand. There is of course a difference, but your not exactly emphasizing it if your reason for calling is that "you play to win ", because in that case you should never agree to deals, like indeed a few players do. The truth is you can bring up a whole bunch of reasons for accepting deals, blah blah blah EV, blah blah blah variance, blah blah blah skill level, blah blah blah chip count, but the bottom line is that deals are made to garantee a certain amount of $, just like folding Ron's hand does. Furthermore, some of the utility theory can be applied on deals too, although its not the same since the amounts involved are much smaller. But tell me, how much different is it to leave a tourney with $3900 rather than $3200 you get for 2nd, giving up a chance to instead win $4600 if you come first? The difference is that most prefer the sure $3900 instead of risking to only get $3200, which in principle is absolutely fine. But my question is, what happens to the "playing to win " attitude by expressed by most of those who voted call? That's the contradiction, the rest is blah blah blah.


I know I'm a pain in the ass Chris, but I really have fun here at times especially when I disagree with you. This is one of those times, although in your linky you made it pretty clear in the end that you now think there is no wrong answer to Ron's thread, and as I said in the beginning I'm now sold that you really would call. So we actually are pretty close in this thing.

there's lots of truth here in that a lot of people tense up when they get further down the road and would rather maximize their minimum win than take further risk. You can see this at work on a lot of tv game shows (millionaire, deal or no deal etc) though if you ever watch cash cab I'm surprised at the number of people that risk it all on double or nothing. It seems to me it's a little above 50% that will play for double or nothing. This situation is guaranteed minimum of winning a million dollars. Folding changes the guaranteed minimum to 2m (and most likely ends you there) at the expense of mortgaging your best chance you've got to finishing 1 or 2. Just like deal or no deal where you can always figure how much your case is actually worth (add up all the prizes left and divide by number of cases left and that's exactly what your case is worth) you're seat is worth a lot more in this situation if you play the aces than fold them. If you had this situation come up 100 times and played them all you would win more than twice as much money as you would by folding. Playing any other way but with the odds is really bad play over the long haul though I'll be the first to admit there would be some temptation to fold and take the 2nd million guarantee.

 

[Paulozg]

Call, i would never fold the nuts, and if i end up losing with the nuts, oh well tough luck, but at least i know i have done the right thing