1. bb defend range is all pp and Kx and Jx combos.
Flop can be a check depending on villains defend range stats... and if you think you are good on river, then a call is not most +EV... you can actually click it back to make all chops fold. No pp calls, and k or jack will jam so you fold.
2. You neglect to factor in ranges are fare wider since there is an ante... flatting is not best option in that situation imo. That's not tight, that's weak tight.
You allow blinds to complete lots of times also because of the pot
odds.
How does a flop call make any sense if you are going to check the turn and fold the river?
You are floating with over cards and you q may not even be good.
If you are going to call the flop why are you checking back the turn when villan checks????
That's auto bet 1/3 pot on turn when they check. What would you do if you had a J there.. you check turn as a trap?
A little inconstant in the logic there if you going to flat pre... way to passive I think
3. Why is flop standard cbet.... what worse hands call?
you have jd... you block lots of diamonds combos that contain Jd.
And for those reasons, river is snap fold.
You opened utg so all Ax is in you range... only a 7x, AT or 55 donks river like that. Your river call efficiency is going to get smashed with these spots if you don't think it through properly and pay off by thinking Ace high can call there.
4. Brah.... this is bad.... "Checking back with show down value"
In #1 you said standard flop c bet and now you say check in this one.... I'm sorry but this makes no sense.
"So many worse hands that are going to call there"....
Are you sure about that??
RIVER JAM IS SUICIDE MISSION!!!!
please tell me what worse hands call you on that board...
you are only getting snapped off better hands and all worse hands snap fold.
Sorry guys, that hand analysis seems a little off....