OTOH, purposely registering late with the idea of getting more than a min cash is not sane.:elefant::elefant::elefant::elefant::elefant:
This is exactly what you have to do. It's just silly to think that late registering and then folding everything to try and min cash is going to get you anywhere. Sure, your ITM% will probably be much higher but you're not going to be profiting in the long term unless you're willing to go after the 1st place.
If you're late registering with say 10 BBs or less, and you're not willing to jam it wide, take any decent preflop
equity spots, hope it holds, and keep attacking pots to build up your stack, then you're going to have a terrible time. It makes no sense to put yourself through late registering and having to run down the timer just so you can min-cash. That's stupid. The idea of MTTs is to win them, not min-cash. You are not doing anything for yourself if you play to min-cash tournaments. (Unless under very specific circumstances).
But, with that said, I'm only speaking for myself. If you or anyone else is fine min-cashing in MTTs, good for you. Coming from experience with late registering as I've did this for 2 years on a different site, before cashing out, and I just started again since I'm playing again during lock down, going for the wins is where your profit comes from. This is true for any time you start an MTT, but more so when you late register as you're putting yourself at a huge disadvantage the lower your starting stack.
Looking at my current graph, I've played 84 x $1.10 MTTs. It's not a large sample size but I think it's good as an example. My current ITM is 20% or ~17 games cashed. My ITM is pretty high and I can expect it to drop to ~15% as I put in more volume. But, my current ROI is 82.5%. Again, pretty high due to a low sample size but it's also because I'm playing to not just min-cash. Out of 17 cashes, I've made 5 final tables and took 2nd place twice.
But lets say I only focus on min-cashing. I can expect my ITM to increase because I'm not putting myself into a lot of spots where my stack is at risk. So, lets say it increases to 45% ITM. That's pretty solid. Lets also say that, on average, my min-cash is $2.75.What does my ROI look like now?
- Profit: (38 x $2.75) - (84 x $1.10) = $104 - 92.4 = $11.60
- ROI = ($11.60/$92.40) * 100 = 12.5% ROI.
So, yes, I'm profiting. Woohoo! But is it worth it to late register just to try and out fold the field to make $11.60 in 84 MTTs? I'm also giving myself a pretty generous 45% ITM finish. At 40% ITM, I'm at 1.20% ROI. I don't know but, to me, it doesn't seem worth it stressing over min-cashing 2/5 games just to virtually break even.
I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with this, anyone that sees a 45% ROI as a waste of time doesn't understand finance.
LoL. So, you buy into a game that's way over your BR, you manage to out fold 13 players, you made 45% ROI for a small cash, and that's your reasoning for why late registering just to min cash isn't a waste of time?
There is no denying that 45% ROI, starting with 4 BBs is a decent result. Hey, anything over -ROI% is great starting with 4 BBs is good, IMO. But that's one game. Play 100 MTTs at that buy-ins and only go for the min-cash. See how well your overall ROI does buying in late and trying to out fold everyone. If it's a 1 time thing, cool. I get it. Obviously, that 45% ROI is decent.