Knowing you're beat, but calling anyway?

[finaltable1]

It's happened to me 4 times in one tourney over course of 100 hands..I lose with 75% favs or better at shove almost every tournament. You can spout digits all day I took statistics. Fact of the matter is you take a hundred, thousand, or ten thousand hands online and compare with same number live and tell me what you get.


If you want i can post link where published mathematician along with computer engineer and programmer compared hundreds of thousands of hands online vs live and came up with same results i do. Math professor said one in a million chances the online cards would ever fall in the same manner or equal too in real live game. He found reoccurring patterns paying under cards at extremely high rate and much more unscrupulous behavior.


But i have a feeling if your trolling this thread looking for people to attempt to discredit you have already seen maybe one of the times I have previously posted.Do you think true random is even possible do you know how a software algorythm works. Only looks random in small portions if you wrote it or even know the time coalition that rng was started you could figure it out with correct software.

These are facts if you need I can post link's where it's explained by people you might trust. Depending on how much blind faith you have in these corporations to not play with numbers to increase profit. I took bushiness classes in Columbus (OSU) And it's pretty much considered unethical as far as business ethics goes to not do this if possible for the share holders are who your obligations lay with not the customer.

It's laughable to me that people think this is not obviously happening even with no proof. Every major corporation you use daily has done this and much worse for monetary gain. If you doubt these statements google and gain knowledge then we can talk. If not then you are already stuck in a belief and refuse to accept information if this is the case you can never truly know anything.

DROP MIKE!

I am a programmer, designer and engineer. Currently I create and use CNC machines in my daily activity. I perfectly know how algorithms work and how to learn and use new programming and real life languages if necessary.

There is no such thing as true random in this world, it may exist on the paper or in the imagination of those why try to study it. RNG algorithm of any poker site is well kept secret, ofc it must be based on something, it's just a equation and it needs one, few or many starting points to provide the end result. Since all participants of the game have no idea what these starting points are then the end result might be considered as equally random for all participants.

The other side of the coin is that FIFA game on XBOX or PlayStation is not real Football, Need For Speed at PC is not the real race. What makes you think that online poker is exactly the same like live poker? Isn't it clear that in all cases it's just a simulation?

Isn't it clear that online poker as a service, provided to you in "take it or leave it" mode?

Isn't it clear that in those 100 hands that you've played, you've participated in maybe 10 or 20 pots, so you've been splitting your bet.

Isn't it clear that if you've played 100 hands in 1 tournament still you've made just 1 single bet = your initial buy-in.

Isn't it clear from that article about gamblers fallacy, that dispersion is big in the short run, and it's getting smaller and smaller in the long run... You may loose 100 bets in a row, but if your strategy is mathematically correct then you'll be in profit after 10K or 100K bets, depending on what you're betting for.

Math professor... omg, are you kidding or something? There are tens or maybe hundreds of poker calculators, some of them are free, you can calculate odds and chances for anything to happen in poker. Do you know the probability to hit a Royal Flush? I saw it hundreds of times at my table, had it tens of times.

What will your maths professor say about such hand:

You're failing to see the objective truth and this is the main reason why people begin to blame others or software or whatever, cause you know, you've took business classes in OSU, you may feel yourself like you've been blessed with knowledge and from now on people will start throwing bags of money in your car while you're driving slowly. But forget about these subjective bright ideas and welcome to the real world. Winning poker player is a hard worker, playing 4-5K hands per day is normal and usual. Winners don't complain about losing 100 times in a row, currently buy-in for the Sunday Million at the pokerstars is just $109, while the first prize is 119K, you can keep trying and spend 10 years, 520 weeks = 520 buy-ins, and if you'll hit only the first place one time - you will double your investments, not considering that most probably you'll be hitting piece of the prize pool several hundred times during these 520 attempts.

SO do I have to say anything else, since you feel like I'm trolling you? I'm trying to show you the truth as it is and use examples, if you're not feeling comfortable about such examples, then it's better to stop this conversation. I'm not American, and not tolerant to stupidity, gays, and rest of the so called freedoms, cause these freedoms provoke chaos, next step for these tolerasts will be something like legalized cannibalism. My goal was to explain truth as I see it, trying to be as objective and as close to the fact as possible, i don't need to tell you all of my titles, universities that I've finished and invite some subjective 3rd party opinions to do that.

 

[acemenow]

A rough example would be when someone bets most of their stick when a King comes down on the River - I also have a K, but a lower kicker, and just know they also have a K, at least (maybe even 2 pair), and a higher kicker - yet I'll sometimes call it anyway - get beat, and knocked out of the single table tournament in 4th place (top 3 finish).
Are any in the same boat? They pretty much KNOW they are beat, but think, "Hmm... just on the off chance I'm wrong, I'll go with it" - and lose.

Don't get me wrong, it's not that frequent, but I go out and then think to myself, "You know you shouldn't have called them, so only yourself to blame".

I think I know where you are coming from, at least for me its like this...

understanding pot odds helps, and you have to consider your read on the player the line they are taking and how much you believe it. But for me, knowing with absolute certainty if its a +ev or -ev call eludes me, sometimes. I can be right, but hit bad variance but wont be sure till after the game when I can look at it more closely. Sometimes I am wrong and get lucky (but think I made the right move). But when you get burned and not until that moment does it become crystal clear that my action was clearly a -ev move.

I am hoping as I understand equity and nash better this happens less frequently.

 

[finaltable1]

I have read all your posts in this this thread and in my opinion you show a deep understanding of the game, and your advice is of excellent quality, especially for the advanced players. For players like myself and the thread's author, unfortunately, very few of the things you have covered in your posts pertain to our problem. This instinct or gut feeling is not about playing garbage hands and having kicker problems, it happens with any type of hand, all the way to aces. Basically, at some point after the flop sometimes I get the feeling I am beat, and I can't point to the exact reason, but it is true in the vast majority of times when I ignore it and go to showdown. And I am talking about online play, where you don't get to see your opponents' face or get to study their mannerisms, but you still have a lot of information from the way the hand played. Daniel Negreanu when he faces a big bet on the river goes back and analyses everything that happened in that hand from the beginning, and sometimes guesses the opponent's exact hand based on how the hand was played, not on the opponent's face. I am not Daniel to be able to remember and especially analyze what happened in a hand especially online where there is less time, but instinct aka gut feeling aka subconscient still gives me valuable advice that if I follow every single time I would be better off. It's like not having gps on my car and making the wrong turn, if I listen to my instinct most of the time I drive back to my route in no time, and if I don't I get lost even more. The subconscient uses roughly 80% of one's brain power, and ignoring it is never a good idea. Don't take my word, listen to what Johnny Chan said at the end of this amazing 1 minute video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_77oNSzySwM
Now, you might not experience this situation as often as us, and a possible explanation is your habit of playing multiple tables at a time. If your attention is scattered between so many tables, your subcoscient will not be able to keep up with all the details of a particular hand, and you have to rely only on math and volume to maintain profitability, which is really a waste of your skill, because it reduces your play to a bot like activity. Also, you are more profitable by playing 9 tables at a time because you are a skilled, disciplined and math savvy poker player not because playing multiple tables is profitable per se. In other words, you need to beat the game before playing multiple tables achieves positive expectation. A player who is not profitable playing one table is going to lose more by playing multiple tables. Advising a novice player who plays more starting hands than he should, to go ahead and start playing multiple tables, hoping that the move in itself will patch his leak and he will become a winning player, in my opinion, will have the exact opposite effect.

BOOM!
Have you seen that Gouvernator of California guy at the screen of your TV set as a robot sent by the SkyNEt from the future who came to kill Sarah and John Connor? Do you believe that it's real? Do you also believe In Superman if you've seen him on the screen?

What makes you think that what you see in these poker TV shows differ from that Terminator movie? This industry is designed to extract profit using rake. To have stable profit this industry must teach new players and advertise the game. This is the main purpose of such "high stakes TV trash" It's the same garbage like Game of Throne and some other soap operas, designed to eat your time, teach you nothing and create some consumer instincts in your head, so you will buy cup or souvenier, pay for subscription and your child will be nervous about new spiderman figure.


Can you believe that if professional player knows that his cards are filmed, and poker is his main source of income - can you believe that he'll be playing the same way for being paid with good salary at TV compared to the way he's playing multi-million cash games behind the scene? What if that Negreanu dude offfically has earned 30millions in MTT games, but unofficially he has earned another 150 millions playing cash? What if he's fooling around in his TV games, cause a) he's paid for playing poker b) he can do whatever he wants c) if a+b then he will be playing like a dumb fish to attract some smart thinking millionaires to private games, cause he looks soo easy, and often loses in unimportant moments so that his fans might think that what he says about poker is true...

Today he might say anything he wants, cause today he's a walking brand, he has fans and followers and this army is following him mostly because they like his charisma, and his explanations will sound like if it's 100% truth for his fans. People like to associate themselves with characters they like to see at their screens.

Since you don't know the back end of anything that you see at your screens, it's better to stay objective. It's better to roll back to how it all has started in your life, instead of rolling back and thinking about how that current hand was played.

Humans are getting used and can lose addiction to anything in about 20 days. You can get rid of cigarettes or alcohol during 3 weeks, you can also be used to such things during 3 weeks. Poker, like many other games provokes increase of serotonin and dophamine. When people win, level of these hormones will increase, when people lose it decreases. If you can't control hormonal level and you don't know strict and clear goals for your poker future, then it's better to quit it, spend 3 weeks playing tennis or tetris and never get back to playing poker.

YOu know, one of my friends says: Poker table is 9 crooks playing pick pocketing championship during their ride on a single 2 wheel bicycle with just 1 seat. So if some con artist is telling you something from the screen, you better think twice if you have to trust him, and this includes me.

Now, where's that bicycle? :bike:

 

[poliaris747]

That's right , I have absolutely the same situation, sometimes I also open the cards of the enemy, that would prove to myself that my intuition is not wrong and works perfectly. I try to force myself to make decisions more often based on intuition.

 

[tw082]

I am a programmer, designer and engineer. Currently I create and use CNC machines in my daily activity. I perfectly know how algorithms work and how to learn and use new programming and real life languages if necessary.

There is no such thing as true random in this world, it may exist on the paper or in the imagination of those why try to study it. RNG algorithm of any poker site is well kept secret, ofc it must be based on something, it's just a equation and it needs one, few or many starting points to provide the end result. Since all participants of the game have no idea what these starting points are then the end result might be considered as equally random for all participants.

The other side of the coin is that FIFA game on XBOX or PlayStation is not real Football, Need For Speed at PC is not the real race. What makes you think that Online poker is exactly the same like live poker? Isn't it clear that in all cases it's just a simulation?

Isn't it clear that online poker as a service, provided to you in "take it or leave it" mode?

Isn't it clear that in those 100 hands that you've played, you've participated in maybe 10 or 20 pots, so you've been splitting your bet.

Isn't it clear that if you've played 100 hands in 1 tournament still you've made just 1 single bet = your initial buy-in.

Isn't it clear from that article about gamblers fallacy, that dispersion is big in the short run, and it's getting smaller and smaller in the long run... You may loose 100 bets in a row, but if your strategy is mathematically correct then you'll be in profit after 10K or 100K bets, depending on what you're betting for.

Math professor... omg, are you kidding or something? There are tens or maybe hundreds of poker calculators, some of them are free, you can calculate odds and chances for anything to happen in poker. Do you know the probability to hit a Royal Flush? I saw it hundreds of times at my table, had it tens of times.

What will your maths professor say about such hand:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN37m4khdzw

You're failing to see the objective truth and this is the main reason why people begin to blame others or software or whatever, cause you know, you've took business classes in OSU, you may feel yourself like you've been blessed with knowledge and from now on people will start throwing bags of money in your car while you're driving slowly. But forget about these subjective bright ideas and welcome to the real world. Winning poker player is a hard worker, playing 4-5K hands per day is normal and usual. Winners don't complain about losing 100 times in a row, currently buy-in for the Sunday Million at the PokerStars is just $109, while the first prize is 119K, you can keep trying and spend 10 years, 520 weeks = 520 buy-ins, and if you'll hit only the first place one time - you will double your investments, not considering that most probably you'll be hitting piece of the prize pool several hundred times during these 520 attempts.

SO do I have to say anything else, since you feel like I'm trolling you? I'm trying to show you the truth as it is and use examples, if you're not feeling comfortable about such examples, then it's better to stop this conversation. I'm not American, and not tolerant to stupidity, gays, and rest of the so called freedoms, cause these freedoms provoke chaos, next step for these tolerasts will be something like legalized cannibalism. My goal was to explain truth as I see it, trying to be as objective and as close to the fact as possible, i don't need to tell you all of my titles, universities that I've finished and invite some subjective 3rd party opinions to do that.

WOW ...your pointless rambling shows your ignorance. Why are you getting mad? I'm not upset was only stating facts that can be researched very easy, while you state no facts with reference. Just more mumbo jumbo you sound like religious fanatic to me..gotta have faith i guess witch i lack i only have ideas that can change with new information. I don't get stuck on 1 thing and refuse to see the forest through the trees.

First of all look up quantum random number generator there is true random for first time. But they've been using static noise and decay of radioactive material for long time to get random yet not quite true. Second I graduated in 2006 not yesterday whatever you were saying about me really didn't make alot of since started spouting offensive slurs. That is always an intelligent way to win a debate.

But actually we agree not poker a poker video game that throws way more action at board than ever would in live play and obviously you can take it or leave it and yes i think you can maybe win on these sites if your really good but not sure if by pure percentages.

Finally your not in u.s so you can play regulated sites. Why are we having this conversation that's all i want to be able to do. Don't know anyone who can play at stars but chooses to play they're big games at u.s facing sites. I'm not sure if they're better or not but defiantly more reputable and been around a lot longer.

You tip toe around and hint like it's as straight forward as real game even though you know better ..why? this was my only issue, you chime in on others thread being slightly aggressive and condescending not sure what your point is ever. All i ever get out of it is you think whomever your talking to is wrong.:musicus:

 

[tw082]

BOOM!
Have you seen that Gouvernator of California guy at the screen of your TV set as a robot sent by the SkyNEt from the future who came to kill Sarah and John Connor? Do you believe that it's real? Do you also believe In Superman if you've seen him on the screen?

What makes you think that what you see in these poker TV shows differ from that Terminator movie? This industry is designed to extract profit using rake. To have stable profit this industry must teach new players and advertise the game. This is the main purpose of such "high stakes TV trash" It's the same garbage like Game of Throne and some other soap operas, designed to eat your time, teach you nothing and create some consumer instincts in your head, so you will buy cup or souvenier, pay for subscription and your child will be nervous about new spiderman figure.


Can you believe that if professional player knows that his cards are filmed, and poker is his main source of income - can you believe that he'll be playing the same way for being paid with good salary at TV compared to the way he's playing multi-million cash games behind the scene? What if that Negreanu dude offfically has earned 30millions in MTT games, but unofficially he has earned another 150 millions playing cash? What if he's fooling around in his TV games, cause a) he's paid for playing poker b) he can do whatever he wants c) if a+b then he will be playing like a dumb fish to attract some smart thinking millionaires to private games, cause he looks soo easy, and often loses in unimportant moments so that his fans might think that what he says about poker is true...

Today he might say anything he wants, cause today he's a walking brand, he has fans and followers and this army is following him mostly because they like his charisma, and his explanations will sound like if it's 100% truth for his fans. People like to associate themselves with characters they like to see at their screens.

Since you don't know the back end of anything that you see at your screens, it's better to stay objective. It's better to roll back to how it all has started in your life, instead of rolling back and thinking about how that current hand was played.

Humans are getting used and can lose addiction to anything in about 20 days. You can get rid of cigarettes or alcohol during 3 weeks, you can also be used to such things during 3 weeks. Poker, like many other games provokes increase of serotonin and dophamine. When people win, level of these hormones will increase, when people lose it decreases. If you can't control hormonal level and you don't know strict and clear goals for your poker future, then it's better to quit it, spend 3 weeks playing tennis or tetris and never get back to playing poker.

YOu know, one of my friends says: Poker table is 9 crooks playing pick pocketing championship during their ride on a single 2 wheel bicycle with just 1 seat. So if some con artist is telling you something from the screen, you better think twice if you have to trust him, and this includes me.

Now, where's that bicycle? :bike:

This is all true but once again what is the point? Has nothing to do with original conversation or even the comment your replying to. You start off very aggressive like your going to prove him wrong but then ramble on somewhere else. Maybe try talking to someone and not at them.Very superior and condescending with your speech mannerisms. You are just stating facts with no detectable resolution. Yet doing it in a manner as if your winning an argument..very confusing.:icon_scra

 

[finaltable1]

WOW ...your pointless rambling shows your ignorance. Why are you getting mad? I'm not upset was only stating facts that can be researched very easy, while you state no facts with reference. Just more mumbo jumbo you sound like religious fanatic to me..gotta have faith i guess witch i lack i only have ideas that can change with new information. I don't get stuck on 1 thing and refuse to see the forest through the trees.

First of all look up quantum random number generator there is true random for first time. But they've been using static noise and decay of radioactive material for long time to get random yet not quite true. Second I graduated in 2006 not yesterday whatever you were saying about me really didn't make alot of since started spouting offensive slurs. That is always an intelligent way to win a debate.

But actually we agree not poker a poker video game that throws way more action at board than ever would in live play and obviously you can take it or leave it and yes i think you can maybe win on these sites if your really good but not sure if by pure percentages.

Finally your not in u.s so you can play regulated sites. Why are we having this conversation that's all i want to be able to do. Don't know anyone who can play at stars but chooses to play they're big games at u.s facing sites. I'm not sure if they're better or not but defiantly more reputable and been around a lot longer.

You tip toe around and hint like it's as straight forward as real game even though you know better ..why? this was my only issue, you chime in on others thread being slightly aggressive and condescending not sure what your point is ever. All i ever get out of it is you think whomever your talking to is wrong.:musicus:

I'm trying to help you, just like a doctor, I'm not getting mad, I want you to start using your brain better, that's all. Maybe you also can help me to use my brain better. SO far I know, that sometimes you need to repeat twice, sometimes you need to say louder, sometimes you need to give rude and strict examples, humans are different, one can see how homeless people live other has to live like homeless to understand what it is and why it's better to live a good life and pay close attention to whatever they're doing.

You know, I've started playing poker with a free $50 bankroll given to me for passing the quiz after reading the articles, made $800 in my first month and spend approx 7 years playing for living. For past 3 years I play mostly for fun cause I've spent my bankroll to start a business in CNC machinery and woodworking. From my perspective and past experience I can only say that you're trying to prove something by saying complete B.S. about "THIS OR THAT FEELING" or "KNOWING THAT YOU'RE BEAT" Cause once again, such things are not based on facts, it's your fantasies. If you want to know why - I've said it in one of the previous posts. Objective vs Subjective. That's the difference.


Now what the logic says about your points about "random"? You may correct me if my logic is failing or you see some sort of mistake in what's written below.

There is no such thing as "true random" in any deck of cards, In real or virtual. Because it's a closed system, 52 cards.... Unlike the numerical system, which has no end, you can always add +1 to the last know number and get a new number. 52 cards, 4 suits, 169 starting hands, 1326 combinations and so on... In a closed system you can't have truly random result, just because that system by itself is not open, it's not endless. You can't eat some random fruit from your fridge, if you have only butter, milk and eggs inside the fridge. I hope it's clear. But you can choose random product out of 3 products located in your fridge. I hope it's clear too. Will your choice be truly random if you will shut your eyes, open the fridge and grab one of the products? Nope, all 3 products have different shape, you need to use different method for random seeding, like maybe assigning numbers 1-2-3 for each product, writing these numbers on pieces of paper, and then you may try to fool yourself and make it look like you're choosing random piece of paper. Will it be 100% random? Nope it won't, cause it's a closed system, you need endless number of humans who will do endless number of choices to have equal numbers like 33.33% for each one of three choices. But for limited amount of attempts for one single person, results will be different, Milk can be randomly chosen 50% of times, eggs 12%, butter 38%, or whatever numbers you like, just make sure that sum is 100%. You might be thinking that since you wanted Milk, and it was chosen 50% of times by your partially random choice, then your "feeling of prediction" works well. Objectively it's case when expected future has met the fact. You have to be objective about such things, there is no room for subjective bright ideas that some God is involved, or it's fate or luck or some sort of prediction feelings.

Objectively your mind has worked on several scenarios, and one of them included the loss from some hand like KQ for example, When you've called with a weaker hand and saw that opponent had KQ, then your mind will ignore all other scenarios from previous 5 minutes and will accept the fact shown at the showdown as a single true scenario. Humans don't like to lose, it's our nature. When you've lost that hand, your conscience is looking for some profit in your loss, and this profit comes from "I thought so" or "I had that feeling"

IF you really "Have that feeling" or you feel like you can predict things, then why you're not winning millions in lottery? Isn't it obvious?

P.S. And what is the problem for U.S. citizens to play at the PokerStars and rest of the poker sites? Scan and send to PS support documents that prove that you're American living in some other country outside U.S. and purchase a VPN connection with iP address of that country and there you go. Majority of regs and pros from US are playing under Canadian flag, some others like Bryn Kenny are playing under Mexican flag, some from Costa Rika and so on... You can sit in the park in the middle of Washington DC and play PokerStars through VPN on your laptop. Prices for the VPN start from $3 per month, not sure how much it will cost to make necessary documents, you will have to travel for that.

 

[finaltable1]

This is all true but once again what is the point? Has nothing to do with original conversation or even the comment your replying to. You start off very aggressive like your going to prove him wrong but then ramble on somewhere else. Maybe try talking to someone and not at them.Very superior and condescending with your speech mannerisms. You are just stating facts with no detectable resolution. Yet doing it in a manner as if your winning an argument..very confusing.:icon_scra

The best cure for a disease is not a doctor and his pills. The best cure is when patient understands why the disease might happen and prevents it before it has happened to him. He needs to know more facts before the problem has happened so he can prevent it, or else he will be searching for a solution when it's too late. More facts and examples will help readers of this thread to understand the problem better using their own brain. That's the goal.

I don't like to discuss things using direct thinking = "it must be yes or no, cause something else is unclear". System thinking and what I call 3d thinking is better(yours-his-observers points of view). And I also practice my English here Cause while machines do the job, it's too loud to listen or talk, and I have to read and type. English is my 3rd language, and I want to polish the way I think in English using long conversations, I find it great if someone uses new words or different structure of the sentence, so I have to use a translator to learn something new. So,, if I'll find someone to talk to, I will do my best to keep talking :icon_comp

My profit in your case was this word: "condescending". I had no idea about this English word, until you've typed it in the above post.

 

[tw082]

The best cure for a disease is not a doctor and his pills. The best cure is when patient understands why the disease might happen and prevents it before it has happened to him. He needs to know more facts before the problem has happened so he can prevent it, or else he will be searching for a solution when it's too late. More facts and examples will help readers of this thread to understand the problem better using their own brain. That's the goal.

I don't like to discuss things using direct thinking = "it must be yes or no, cause something else is unclear". System thinking and what I call 3d thinking is better(yours-his-observers points of view). And I also practice my English here Cause while machines do the job, it's too loud to listen or talk, and I have to read and type. English is my 3rd language, and I want to polish the way I think in English using long conversations, I find it great if someone uses new words or different structure of the sentence, so I have to use a translator to learn something new. So,, if I'll find someone to talk to, I will do my best to keep talking :icon_comp

My profit in your case was this word: "condescending". I had no idea about this English word, until you've typed it in the above post.

Respect! keep doing what your doing! Nothing but love and respect to you!:beer:

 

[tw082]

I'm trying to help you, just like a doctor, I'm not getting mad, I want you to start using your brain better, that's all. Maybe you also can help me to use my brain better. SO far I know, that sometimes you need to repeat twice, sometimes you need to say louder, sometimes you need to give rude and strict examples, humans are different, one can see how homeless people live other has to live like homeless to understand what it is and why it's better to live a good life and pay close attention to whatever they're doing.

You know, I've started playing poker with a free $50 bankroll given to me for passing the quiz after reading the articles, made $800 in my first month and spend approx 7 years playing for living. For past 3 years I play mostly for fun cause I've spent my bankroll to start a business in CNC machinery and woodworking. From my perspective and past experience I can only say that you're trying to prove something by saying complete B.S. about "THIS OR THAT FEELING" or "KNOWING THAT YOU'RE BEAT" Cause once again, such things are not based on facts, it's your fantasies. If you want to know why - I've said it in one of the previous posts. Objective vs Subjective. That's the difference.


Now what the logic says about your points about "random"? You may correct me if my logic is failing or you see some sort of mistake in what's written below.

There is no such thing as "true random" in any deck of cards, In real or virtual. Because it's a closed system, 52 cards.... Unlike the numerical system, which has no end, you can always add +1 to the last know number and get a new number. 52 cards, 4 suits, 169 starting hands, 1326 combinations and so on... In a closed system you can't have truly random result, just because that system by itself is not open, it's not endless. You can't eat some random fruit from your fridge, if you have only butter, milk and eggs inside the fridge. I hope it's clear. But you can choose random product out of 3 products located in your fridge. I hope it's clear too. Will your choice be truly random if you will shut your eyes, open the fridge and grab one of the products? Nope, all 3 products have different shape, you need to use different method for random seeding, like maybe assigning numbers 1-2-3 for each product, writing these numbers on pieces of paper, and then you may try to fool yourself and make it look like you're choosing random piece of paper. Will it be 100% random? Nope it won't, cause it's a closed system, you need endless number of humans who will do endless number of choices to have equal numbers like 33.33% for each one of three choices. But for limited amount of attempts for one single person, results will be different, Milk can be randomly chosen 50% of times, eggs 12%, butter 38%, or whatever numbers you like, just make sure that sum is 100%. You might be thinking that since you wanted Milk, and it was chosen 50% of times by your partially random choice, then your "feeling of prediction" works well. Objectively it's case when expected future has met the fact. You have to be objective about such things, there is no room for subjective bright ideas that some God is involved, or it's fate or luck or some sort of prediction feelings.

Objectively your mind has worked on several scenarios, and one of them included the loss from some hand like KQ for example, When you've called with a weaker hand and saw that opponent had KQ, then your mind will ignore all other scenarios from previous 5 minutes and will accept the fact shown at the showdown as a single true scenario. Humans don't like to lose, it's our nature. When you've lost that hand, your conscience is looking for some profit in your loss, and this profit comes from "I thought so" or "I had that feeling"

IF you really "Have that feeling" or you feel like you can predict things, then why you're not winning millions in lottery? Isn't it obvious?

P.S. And what is the problem for U.S. citizens to play at the PokerStars and rest of the poker sites? Scan and send to PS support documents that prove that you're American living in some other country outside U.S. and purchase a VPN connection with iP address of that country and there you go. Majority of regs and pros from US are playing under Canadian flag, some others like Bryn Kenny are playing under Mexican flag, some from Costa Rika and so on... You can sit in the park in the middle of Washington DC and play PokerStars through VPN on your laptop. Prices for the VPN start from $3 per month, not sure how much it will cost to make necessary documents, you will have to travel for that.

Never said i could read future our brain is amazing and takes in way more information than our conscious mind can process so if we just stop and breath through diaphragm stop trying to know the answer and trust in yourself. Athletes call it the zone Buddhists call it zen. I believe at one point in our history we were much more in tuned with this witch made us more intuitive meaning letting our brain figure it out and just trust that we know. So much doubt and ego in today's world we are cut off from trusting in ourselves so we've lost this.

 

[ToNy70929]

Overall, I'm a decent player, know the pot odds, implied odds, my own starting hand guide (changes slightly, depending on the opposition), etc, but this seems to be a slight weakness that I have, when I'm becoming irritated against poor players.

9 times out of 10, if I have a gut instinct, that my hand is beat, I am. Yet I'll still sometimes call, and go against it, due to being impatient of not getting any decent hands/flops.

A rough example would be when someone bets most of their stick when a King comes down on the River - I also have a K, but a lower kicker, and just know they also have a K, at least (maybe even 2 pair), and a higher kicker - yet I'll sometimes call it anyway - get beat, and knocked out of the single table tournament in 4th place (top 3 finish).
Are any in the same boat? They pretty much KNOW they are beat, but think, "Hmm... just on the off chance I'm wrong, I'll go with it" - and lose.

Don't get me wrong, it's not that frequent, but I go out and then think to myself, "You know you shouldn't have called them, so only yourself to blame".

This problem exists not only for you😆. I personally constantly suspect opponents of bluffing. These suspicions make me not call my strongest hands on the board.

 

[zinzir]

BOOM!
Have you seen that Gouvernator of California guy at the screen of your TV set as a robot sent by the SkyNEt from the future who came to kill Sarah and John Connor? Do you believe that it's real? Do you also believe In Superman if you've seen him on the screen?

What makes you think that what you see in these poker TV shows differ from that Terminator movie? This industry is designed to extract profit using rake. To have stable profit this industry must teach new players and advertise the game. This is the main purpose of such "high stakes TV trash" It's the same garbage like Game of Throne and some other soap operas, designed to eat your time, teach you nothing and create some consumer instincts in your head, so you will buy cup or souvenier, pay for subscription and your child will be nervous about new spiderman figure.


Can you believe that if professional player knows that his cards are filmed, and poker is his main source of income - can you believe that he'll be playing the same way for being paid with good salary at TV compared to the way he's playing multi-million cash games behind the scene? What if that Negreanu dude offfically has earned 30millions in MTT games, but unofficially he has earned another 150 millions playing cash? What if he's fooling around in his TV games, cause a) he's paid for playing poker b) he can do whatever he wants c) if a+b then he will be playing like a dumb fish to attract some smart thinking millionaires to private games, cause he looks soo easy, and often loses in unimportant moments so that his fans might think that what he says about poker is true...

Today he might say anything he wants, cause today he's a walking brand, he has fans and followers and this army is following him mostly because they like his charisma, and his explanations will sound like if it's 100% truth for his fans. People like to associate themselves with characters they like to see at their screens.

Since you don't know the back end of anything that you see at your screens, it's better to stay objective. It's better to roll back to how it all has started in your life, instead of rolling back and thinking about how that current hand was played.

Humans are getting used and can lose addiction to anything in about 20 days. You can get rid of cigarettes or alcohol during 3 weeks, you can also be used to such things during 3 weeks. Poker, like many other games provokes increase of serotonin and dophamine. When people win, level of these hormones will increase, when people lose it decreases. If you can't control hormonal level and you don't know strict and clear goals for your poker future, then it's better to quit it, spend 3 weeks playing tennis or tetris and never get back to playing poker.

YOu know, one of my friends says: Poker table is 9 crooks playing pick pocketing championship during their ride on a single 2 wheel bicycle with just 1 seat. So if some con artist is telling you something from the screen, you better think twice if you have to trust him, and this includes me.

Now, where's that bicycle? :bike:

The stupid Americans bow to your superior being... Boy, was I wrong about you, thinking I was engaging someone interested in meaningful conversation only to have the above word salad thrown in my face

 

[tw082]

I'm trying to help you, just like a doctor, I'm not getting mad, I want you to start using your brain better, that's all. Maybe you also can help me to use my brain better. SO far I know, that sometimes you need to repeat twice, sometimes you need to say louder, sometimes you need to give rude and strict examples, humans are different, one can see how homeless people live other has to live like homeless to understand what it is and why it's better to live a good life and pay close attention to whatever they're doing.

You know, I've started playing poker with a free $50 bankroll given to me for passing the quiz after reading the articles, made $800 in my first month and spend approx 7 years playing for living. For past 3 years I play mostly for fun cause I've spent my bankroll to start a business in CNC machinery and woodworking. From my perspective and past experience I can only say that you're trying to prove something by saying complete B.S. about "THIS OR THAT FEELING" or "KNOWING THAT YOU'RE BEAT" Cause once again, such things are not based on facts, it's your fantasies. If you want to know why - I've said it in one of the previous posts. Objective vs Subjective. That's the difference.


Now what the logic says about your points about "random"? You may correct me if my logic is failing or you see some sort of mistake in what's written below.

There is no such thing as "true random" in any deck of cards, In real or virtual. Because it's a closed system, 52 cards.... Unlike the numerical system, which has no end, you can always add +1 to the last know number and get a new number. 52 cards, 4 suits, 169 starting hands, 1326 combinations and so on... In a closed system you can't have truly random result, just because that system by itself is not open, it's not endless. You can't eat some random fruit from your fridge, if you have only butter, milk and eggs inside the fridge. I hope it's clear. But you can choose random product out of 3 products located in your fridge. I hope it's clear too. Will your choice be truly random if you will shut your eyes, open the fridge and grab one of the products? Nope, all 3 products have different shape, you need to use different method for random seeding, like maybe assigning numbers 1-2-3 for each product, writing these numbers on pieces of paper, and then you may try to fool yourself and make it look like you're choosing random piece of paper. Will it be 100% random? Nope it won't, cause it's a closed system, you need endless number of humans who will do endless number of choices to have equal numbers like 33.33% for each one of three choices. But for limited amount of attempts for one single person, results will be different, Milk can be randomly chosen 50% of times, eggs 12%, butter 38%, or whatever numbers you like, just make sure that sum is 100%. You might be thinking that since you wanted Milk, and it was chosen 50% of times by your partially random choice, then your "feeling of prediction" works well. Objectively it's case when expected future has met the fact. You have to be objective about such things, there is no room for subjective bright ideas that some God is involved, or it's fate or luck or some sort of prediction feelings.

Objectively your mind has worked on several scenarios, and one of them included the loss from some hand like KQ for example, When you've called with a weaker hand and saw that opponent had KQ, then your mind will ignore all other scenarios from previous 5 minutes and will accept the fact shown at the showdown as a single true scenario. Humans don't like to lose, it's our nature. When you've lost that hand, your conscience is looking for some profit in your loss, and this profit comes from "I thought so" or "I had that feeling"

IF you really "Have that feeling" or you feel like you can predict things, then why you're not winning millions in lottery? Isn't it obvious?

P.S. And what is the problem for U.S. citizens to play at the PokerStars and rest of the poker sites? Scan and send to PS support documents that prove that you're American living in some other country outside U.S. and purchase a VPN connection with iP address of that country and there you go. Majority of regs and pros from US are playing under Canadian flag, some others like Bryn Kenny are playing under Mexican flag, some from Costa Rika and so on... You can sit in the park in the middle of Washington DC and play PokerStars through VPN on your laptop. Prices for the VPN start from $3 per month, not sure how much it will cost to make necessary documents, you will have to travel for that.

Always seem to fail to address the subjects i think we are discussing like we are having 2 separate conversations pertaining to different subjects

 

[Wiflopper]

It took me a while to just learn to fold when the gut says to. I save chips and go deeper now.

 

[MattRyder]

If I didn't call when I was beat, I'd never play at all.

 

[screamingmidget]

Some excellent replies and it seems I'm not alone!

Someone mentioned coding and algos - I used to be a programmer, but found the smart money is in marketing and let the programmers do all the late nights.

Randomisation in computing is funny. Throw a pack of cards on the floor and ask a 2 year old to pick them up - random - then shuffle and throw them on the floor again and ask a different 2 year old to pick them up... again, random.

What computers do is work out a maths sum which spits out a random number - then does the same thing again. But it'll come back to the same point (cards) eventually, so it's not actually random. If you play online poker, you may notice similar patterns, where you got a 10 of clubs and 2 of diamonds and someone gets AA and then a few hands down the line 2 other different people get the same hands. It does happen, and I think it's due to the way the software is programmed.

A shame it doesn't happen in casinos though!

 

[Tbone461]

To me this is one of the hardest skills to master in the game of poker. Whenever I'm in doubt about a hand and if all you have left to go on is your gut. trust your gut.

 

[screamingmidget]

I've done it again!

I got 44 in the final of a STT and everybody folded until the last player - he called.

I raised and he went all in... why the hell did I call?

He had KK ... I knew he had a better hand, but have drank a few lagers so I gifted him the money.

I deserve everything I get until I learn this basic error.

 

[finaltable1]

The stupid Americans bow to your superior being... Boy, was I wrong about you, thinking I was engaging someone interested in meaningful conversation only to have the above word salad thrown in my face

What can I say? 2 different people read the book last year, today one of them remembers the meaning, the other one remembers that the book was red.

Thanks for the crown btw, i liked that "simpsonic" sarcasm of yours. :icon_king

 

[finaltable1]

Always seem to fail to address the subjects i think we are discussing like we are having 2 separate conversations pertaining to different subjects

Hey, let's make it clear. The subject here is: "the role of intuition in online poker". We're discussing here how the past experience affects our brain and why we falsely believe that we can predict unknown process of card shuffling and unknown hands of our opponents before we see the actual facts at the showdown. You've mentioned your so called "gut instinct" above. How can this be 2 different conversations then? I've been answering the questions, you can't have the apple card or some jupiter card as the next card for turn or river, deck is limited to 52 cards. It means that the random seed is limited, so as the number of choices. Since number of choices is limited and number of actions of your opponent is also limited, and according to the logic of opponent actions in the past you're left with very few choices. Estimations that you're beat or that you're ahead are based on prejudices. Fact can be seen only on the showdown. If you're playing against opponent who doesn't like to change his betting strategy, then more likely your prejudices will be correct. But still prejudice does not become a prediction... People here are trying to see something else behind naked facts. Some 6th sense or something. You know, actually the truth is that we have a 6th and 7th sense and even more, Sense of gravity, if you're upside down - you will feel it. Sense of balance - you'll feel it when you'll learn to ride the bicycle. But that so called sense of prediction is nothing but a BS in such games like poker, where people have option to lie. Obvious example is when ABC player meets GTO player. For example I don't like to limp at all, but I often limp with pocket aces at aggressive tables where opponents like to get 3 streets of value, and after hitting a set or full house or quads I'll check/call till the river, and will even check the river if my opponent has position on me, I'll let him do it with his own hands, just because his "feeling of prediction" is telling him that his 2nd nut hand beats my trashy hand, while in reality I have unbeatable hand. I also bluff like some idiot without having even a draw against some special opponents who have "that feeling" and the next time I'll get aces at the same table I'll play it differently, probably really aggressive against "thinking" opponent, cause more likely he'll think that I'm a robosapiense and will play nuts slowly again, so his decision will be based on the past experience, not on the facts. Naked facts are: you know your 2 cards and some community cards, rest of the facts can be seen on the showdown. And let's not mix our fantasies with reality and facts, ok?

 

[finaltable1]

I've done it again!

I got 44 in the final of a STT and everybody folded until the last player - he called.

I raised and he went all in... why the hell did I call?

He had KK ... I knew he had a better hand, but have drank a few lagers so I gifted him the money.

I deserve everything I get until I learn this basic error.

"I got 44 in the final of a STT and everybody folded until the last player - he called."

I raised and he went all in... why the hell did I call?

So what was the sequence? Did he call or did he went all-in? And what was that "basic error" you're talking about? It was just a bad beat. Depending on remaining stacks at the table and my stack there I would most probably push all-in with 44 if all stacks are close or if my stack is one of the lowest, and would simply fold if my and remaining opponents stacks are one of the top stacks.

Do you see any errors in my hand there?

 

[Poker Orifice]

Yeah, I tend to play tournaments (STT), and I think I do it more when I have fewer chips, kind of like annoyed that I've had no decent hands and no flops, so I think "Sod it, and go all-in / call), knowing they have me beat. I do sometimes do it mid-game, but not as often.

This is a common tendency among newer players.
It is also a form of TILT.
Calling off chips (ESPECIALLY in a STT) when you are pretty sure you're beat instead of re-adjusting to what would now be your stack is extremely poor play (imo).

 

[iPGaming]

I've got the same problem and I'm aware of that. It's like fold button disappears. Still working on resolving that. I just HAVE TO see his hand.

Getting better though. Hopefully in a month or two I'll stop calling lost pots.

 

[screamingmidget]

This is a common tendency among newer players.
It is also a form of TILT.
Calling off chips (ESPECIALLY in a STT) when you are pretty sure you're beat instead of re-adjusting to what would now be your stack is extremely poor play (imo).

You're a great help you are.

One thing I've learned - there's no room for an ego in poker. Trolls are not invited so please - leave this thread alone unless you can offer something educational.

 

[usmc2doc]

May the Force be with you

Overall, I'm a decent player, know the pot odds, implied odds, my own starting hand guide (changes slightly, depending on the opposition), etc, but this seems to be a slight weakness that I have, when I'm becoming irritated against poor players.

9 times out of 10, if I have a gut instinct, that my hand is beat, I am. Yet I'll still sometimes call, and go against it, due to being impatient of not getting any decent hands/flops.

A rough example would be when someone bets most of their stick when a King comes down on the River - I also have a K, but a lower kicker, and just know they also have a K, at least (maybe even 2 pair), and a higher kicker - yet I'll sometimes call it anyway - get beat, and knocked out of the single table tournament in 4th place (top 3 finish).
Are any in the same boat? They pretty much KNOW they are beat, but think, "Hmm... just on the off chance I'm wrong, I'll go with it" - and lose.


Don't get me wrong, it's not that frequent, but I go out and then think to myself, "You know you shouldn't have called them, so only yourself to blame".

This has happened to me enough times that eventually I just decided I was going to trust myself to know that I am beaten. Even when your absolutely SURE he didn't just call a 3bet/4bet with 57o, if I feel I am beat, let it go. Especially online with low stakes games and poor players, you can almost guarantee that someone called with a crap hand.

Fold, say nh, and get it back in the hands to come. :icon_king