Is it REALLY Variance???

[Recreationalplayer]

Sample size matters. If you flip a coin 10 times, it might be 70%H:30%T
100 times, it might be 60%H:40%T
1000 times, it might be 55%H:45%T
Law of large numbers, frequency will tend towards 50%H:50%T

Difficult to determine if its variance unless the sample size is big enough..

 

[TheWize1]

Mathematically correct; the larger the number the closest it gets to 50/50

 

[Viper ChipIt]

The correct answer is yes it's just variance. If it's online and a popular site it's just random number generator. If it's live then unless someone is cheating or Riggs the deck then it's just luck. Just keep at it and try not let immediate results tilt you.

 

[JimTheBadger]

Jim - not going to lie - I come back to read this line at least once a week. I TOTALLY relate.

Great line.

Usually I'm being quoted to be argued with so this is nice change of pace. BTW I'm not even married

 

[CDNMAN 42]

Variance???

Pretty simple question.

Is it REALLY variance when every bust out hand of the day (16 tournaments) was a result of getting it in good - either preflop - or on the flop - and getting beat by the river EVERY SINGLE TIME!!!

If so I'm in for some REALLY GREAT RESULTS in the future - hopefully it is ALL at once - like the crap "variance" has been all piled up for over one entire month now. Just wow!

It seems quite impossible to have EVERY bustout hand end up as a suckout. I know right!

3 of 30 flips for stacks today went in the other players favor when I was ahead either pre or on the flop.
I don't really see how this can balance out over time - I don't suck out on opponents unless I'm short stacked and getting it in at the most +EV time for me. I'm not the big stack shoving K/7 off getting called by 3 players and the runout giving K/7 o trips or better. I see this over and over and over and over just what the crap is all this terrible play - that gets rewarded time and time again. Why play premium hands - when A/3 o is going to crush your KKs every single time - when it matters most.
Yes - if I'm a big stack and someone shoves for 3bb and I have 30+bb I'm going to call with any 2. That isn't a suckout. I'm talking about 2 big stacks battling - and donk hits his trips or better on the river besting the best hand that was betting for value on the flop/turn and on the river or cracks AA with 33. Variance can kiss my @@@ZZZ.

So damn!@!!!!!! aggravating to grind a big stack up all day - making optimal plays and
chipping, up making it into the money and 1-3 hands totally wrecks all the hard work you have done - by some spewy player getting it in bad - as always - and making the winning hand by the river - as always.
If I won the hands that didn't get suckout by the river - I'd be playing mid stakes by now and my graph would look like a friggin malformed RIGHT ANGLE hockey stick!
People who shove preflop crap 22-44, A rag, or Kx off, or any 2 suited should have to sit out for 2 orbits as a penalty.

Tilty complainy angry rant over -

Thanks CC - you are my only outlet!

disclaimer: none of these happened in CC events. Interestingly after the first 30-45 minutes into CC freerolls, after 'those' types of players are gone, there are more competent players, who are competitive and play the game well. Really have to be on my A game when playing in CC events - and that is a great feeling - that competitiveness - better players than 85% of ALL MICRO EVENTS, where (shaking head as I write this) just terrible players are donking all over the game - and getting rewarded. Frustrating!


This is WHY people say they can win - when they play higher stakes. And to those who say if you can't beat micros - you will never be able to compete higher - are full of bunk. Watch ANY pros play at the micro level - they get DESTROYED. Thats why they get in and start playing high buyin micros - or mid stakes. They can't hang at the micros LOL.

This is also why something like 30%+ think these online sites are rigged. I don't - but I can see why other people believe this.

OK really - done now.

As I type this I watch some donk take all my chips when he shoves on the flop I call with A/K with top pair top kicker, and guy turns and rivers JJ to beat me with J/T. Yes - shoves a gutshot and makes trips on turn/river. Every time.

I don't get it.

I hear ya friend, I regularly am experiencing. similar situs, here is todays latest example of Variance that kicked me from the tourney with only 20 to go to ITM
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424V3rzH2

 

[Recreationalplayer]

Believe in variance and sleep peacefully. Its unfortunate, but bad beats are normal and they are more daunting when you are on a bad beat streak. Focus on your game and keep making +EV decisions, hopefully we will be winning in long term.

 

[fundiver199]

Believe in variance and sleep peacefully. Its unfortunate, but bad beats are normal and they are more daunting when you are on a bad beat streak. Focus on your game and keep making +EV decisions, hopefully we will be winning in long term.

Exactly. Over the last two days I am stuck more than 20 BIs playing SnGs on pokerstars, and my ROI is a negative 50%. Not exactly what any of us want or like, but runs like that are part of poker, and the real difference lies in, how we deal with them. If we start making terrible tilted plays, because "we cant always be this unlucky", then we dig the hole deeper, and it will only get more difficult to climb out of.

And variance is not only bad beats. In my last session I ran into AA three times within a few minutes, which is also not exactly anything, I could control or avoid. So part of running hot is also, that our opponents are not always at the top of their range, when we jam into them or call them off. Or that we complete our draw and hit our set or top pair, while they dont. There are many different elements of variance, and bad beats is just the perhaps most visible one.

 

[Baldy86]

it is not variance no

it is online poker

 

[theANMATOR]

Exactly. Over the last two days I am stuck more than 20 BIs playing SnGs on PokerStars, and my ROI is a negative 50%. Not exactly what any of us want or like, but runs like that are part of poker, and the real difference lies in, how we deal with them. If we start making terrible tilted plays, because "we cant always be this unlucky", then we dig the hole deeper, and it will only get more difficult to climb out of.

And variance is not only bad beats. In my last session I ran into AA three times within a few minutes, which is also not exactly anything, I could control or avoid. So part of running hot is also, that our opponents are not always at the top of their range, when we jam into them or call them off. Or that we complete our draw and hit our set or top pair, while they dont. There are many different elements of variance, and bad beats is just the perhaps most visible one.

Sammie Sammie but with KKs. 0/5 yesterday - nobody could fold their rag Aces pre, and a physic fish who 4bet jammed 45bb into my 3bet with 8/7 and caught the board rrr flush.
Oh - boy - welp - tap tap - ill get ya tomorrow.

 

[Luvepoker]

it is not variance no

it is online poker

But then why does it happen at the Casino? Some of my worst beats have been live.

 

[RENEY444]

luck happens ...

good + bad . the downward streaks make you think something fishy is going on

 

[TeUnit]

The better you are the less the variance. The best fix is often to just work on your game, review the hands, run them through an icm calc, etc.

 

[Pimp 007 x]

Is it really tilt though? I have seen chip leaders get richer and richer by holding crap hands and they'll get there. Opponent has Aces? No problem, they'll win with runner runner cards.

I'm not talking out of spite, since I have also enjoyed the benefits of being chip leader, and getting ridiculous runouts and hands... Im not lying when I say I got quads 3 times in the same table in a range of 20 hands.... That is insane, and I had my opppnents pay me off because the system gave them good cards... And this was a knockout tournament... It got to the point where everyone was folding to me and I just kept showing the goods... But then as all things in life, your streak has to end and the system decides you won enough and it doesn't like you anymore, and it gives you good cards and incredible flop cards... And you never get there. You can feel the change.

I have played hundreds of thousands of games. So thats my experience.

 

[Alizona]

If OP had gone to a textbook first off, instead of to the message forums, they would have realized their complaint is the very definition of the phrase "Statistical Variance From The Normal" which we shorten to the less-descriptive word "variance".

We don't even have to do any math to realize that losing 16 hands in a row on the river after getting our chips in the middle with higher equity than our opponent's hand is NOT normal... and thus, when it happens, we know precisely that it is "statistical variance from the norm"... and we don't have to post about it, saving us much time and further grief.

Sorry for your losses, OP, I hope the next day you received the blessing of a similar, but exactly opposite variance from the norm and won 16 tournaments in a row on the river after getting your chips in bad. Probably not, because it just doesn't work that way... but over the long run, it WILL all even out. If it doesn't, then come back and complain about how one person cannot possibly run under expectation for their entire career. Gosh, that just cannot happen, it would be... well, just way too variant. Best wishes!

 

[VikyGia]

HI

We always ask ourselves that, and more if we are improving as players, it is difficult to know

 

[GDubs13]

Wow this is probably my most favorite thread I have gotten into so far. I have a lot more to read here but I also believe it is definitely time for me to start using a HUD. I will experience long periods of time where I can do nothing but lose.. And then there are times it seems I can't lose! I know that sometimes when I can't help but lose no matter what, sometimes it is me making poor calls. I am going to invest in a HUD right away because I know I need to study my own play. I have really enjoyed reading so much of this. I will be back in this thread to add more to the conversation, (or add anything at all really) after I can bring some real stats of my own to the table! (Or thread ha!).

 

[garibe]

Cool turn, this topic took all way back from 2020 lol.

Variance exists, and I learned something today that might ease the pain.

Remember, this is personal opinion and it has worked out well for me.*

"Where is the EV+?"

that question, very broadly asking you where/When is it when you profit/win?

Variance, swings at us in many ways. I have not dealt with it properly (lack of play) but anytime I face this situation (tilt/cooler/bad beat/etc) I remember about the EV+.

EV+ can be found with a simple math equation:

(player ROI)*(Nr. of games)*(Av. Buy IN -ABI)

If you know this, you know that variance will be part of your journey and no matter what, it is your ROI and nr. of games that define if you stand a winning or losing player.

Having this in mind, has helped me dealing with situations like this. When you think the world is against you, or when it was just a Saturday where you lost all 12 mtts you entered getting out of them between initial and mid phases to bad beats/coolers... (yeah happened to me and I got pretty upset with it at that time lol).

These things tend to be very upsetting and even taking a huge toll on your stress levels. Thats why it is important not to focus on variance or tilting situations. The best way to deal with it is to understand it.

Hands I lost, I should be reviewing more often using ICMizer or similar tools. I have been lacking this kind of study lately as I still need to buy it (my free version expired). But then, reviewing is another way of understanding the hand instead of thinking immediately that you deserved that win.

Take a minute to check this website (which thanks to this topic made me google variance calculator and wow! it exists lol.) here it is:

https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Have fun!

btw- EV+ example

player ROI = 20%
ABI= $500
Nr. Games year = 3500

(0.2)*(500)*(3500) = 350K year. Not bad uh??? this is the life of an amazing High Roller.

That means that no matter the game variance, if you put in the work and stick to your winning strategy you will end up profitable depending on your ROI. Imagine if this guy quit after his "downswing" month thinking that variance targets him? hehehe

 

[mariale_1990]

It is quite complicated to deal with this type of situation, where basically nothing works, for example today was a very difficult day with certain plays winning from the beginning and the river turns my plays, I usually play a lot omaha Hi-lo, in this case The draw was A4XX (A4 diamonds) and the flop was 25Q (diamonds) I bet everything and 3 people called they had AAJJ, KT89, 6578, the turn brought a J and the river Q.
Another move was, KK23, 66JT and 6K4 comes out, I bet everything and he calls me, QA comes out, I lose against a straight, and so on, infinities of moves.
I repeat it is difficult sometimes to deal with or accept that this kind of thing or deal with the variance, this happens one after another as if nothing else, but we must learn to move forward and prevent this from affecting our future game

 

[antonis32123]

variance is a b**** , but the worst of all b is RNG , lol

 

[jsnake716]

Pretty simple question.

Is it REALLY variance when every bust out hand of the day (16 tournaments) was a result of getting it in good - either preflop - or on the flop - and getting beat by the river EVERY SINGLE TIME!!!

If so I'm in for some REALLY GREAT RESULTS in the future - hopefully it is ALL at once - like the crap "variance" has been all piled up for over one entire month now. Just wow!

It seems quite impossible to have EVERY bustout hand end up as a suckout. I know right!

3 of 30 flips for stacks today went in the other players favor when I was ahead either pre or on the flop.
I don't really see how this can balance out over time - I don't suck out on opponents unless I'm short stacked and getting it in at the most +EV time for me. I'm not the big stack shoving K/7 off getting called by 3 players and the runout giving K/7 o trips or better. I see this over and over and over and over just what the crap is all this terrible play - that gets rewarded time and time again. Why play premium hands - when A/3 o is going to crush your KKs every single time - when it matters most.
Yes - if I'm a big stack and someone shoves for 3bb and I have 30+bb I'm going to call with any 2. That isn't a suckout. I'm talking about 2 big stacks battling - and donk hits his trips or better on the river besting the best hand that was betting for value on the flop/turn and on the river or cracks AA with 33. Variance can kiss my @@@ZZZ.

So damn!@!!!!!! aggravating to grind a big stack up all day - making optimal plays and
chipping, up making it into the money and 1-3 hands totally wrecks all the hard work you have done - by some spewy player getting it in bad - as always - and making the winning hand by the river - as always.
If I won the hands that didn't get suckout by the river - I'd be playing mid stakes by now and my graph would look like a friggin malformed RIGHT ANGLE hockey stick!
People who shove preflop crap 22-44, A rag, or Kx off, or any 2 suited should have to sit out for 2 orbits as a penalty.

Tilty complainy angry rant over -

Thanks CC - you are my only outlet!

disclaimer: none of these happened in CC events. Interestingly after the first 30-45 minutes into CC freerolls, after 'those' types of players are gone, there are more competent players, who are competitive and play the game well. Really have to be on my A game when playing in CC events - and that is a great feeling - that competitiveness - better players than 85% of ALL MICRO EVENTS, where (shaking head as I write this) just terrible players are donking all over the game - and getting rewarded. Frustrating!


This is WHY people say they can win - when they play higher stakes. And to those who say if you can't beat micros - you will never be able to compete higher - are full of bunk. Watch ANY pros play at the micro level - they get DESTROYED. Thats why they get in and start playing high buyin micros - or mid stakes. They can't hang at the micros LOL.

This is also why something like 30%+ think these online sites are rigged. I don't - but I can see why other people believe this.

OK really - done now.

As I type this I watch some donk take all my chips when he shoves on the flop I call with A/K with top pair top kicker, and guy turns and rivers JJ to beat me with J/T. Yes - shoves a gutshot and makes trips on turn/river. Every time.

I don't get it.

Hey, I know how you are feeling, I am not going to go through all the things in your post. I get it you want to vent. I have shared my thoughts plenty on playing low stakes poker. Just one example I would point out. During my sessions I watch Ben Rolle (benCB) and he has played plenty of 500 zoom cash, even though he is a high stakes tournament reg. Now zoom 500 on pokerstars is very difficult those guys are cash game beasts. Bens chat joked with him to play micro stakes and ben has grinded 5c/10c cash right along side his 10,000 buy in wcoop games , and while he never kept up a running total he actually talked his way through hands and believe me, he can beat the micros so the idea that a pro can't beat small stakes is just not true, he definitely plays a different game and I think you might have to think differently about how often you are going to risk your tournament life, if you know there is a chance to get called by 2 or 3 villains maybe you do not want to get it in, even if you might be ahead. Many times position and stack size is more important than the 2 cards you are holding, in all the time I have playing low stakes I definitely play a different game than if I play my highest buy-ins. A poker player has to learn to be flexible depending on the stakes and on the players at the particular table. I hope venting made you feel more relaxed, and I can feel a heater coming your way, unless we end up at the same table , of course.

 

[theANMATOR]

I can feel a heater coming your way, unless we end up at the same table , of course.

Its funny to me people are still commenting on this topic as if I posted it last week.
This thread was created one and a half years ago.

And in the off chance we end up on the same table in the same tourney - it will be an unfortunate day for you my friend. GL on the tables - better hope you dont get put on my table.

 

[tw082]

There is obviously variance. However there seems to be some odds defying consistencies as well.

I have cut back on play quite a bit (mainly due to all u.s. facing sites having F'd up their structures terribly) and have noticed my win percentage is much better. Even in freeroll and league play.

Probably playing too much before. I was usually entering every game fresh off a bad beat and slightly tilted from maybe 2 or 3 in a row and didn't realize how much it was affecting my play.

I wasn't upset nor felt tilted. Yet no one is happy after playing several hours to lose with a cooler. Weather you realize it or not it's going to have a negative affect on your game.

I have way better results now that I usually have a long time in between big games. Even if I am being forced to do so by the lack of decent tournaments these days.

 

[tw082]

Its funny to me people are still commenting on this topic as if I posted it last week.
This thread was created one and a half years ago.

And in the off chance we end up on the same table in the same tourney - it will be an unfortunate day for you my friend. GL on the tables - better hope you dont get put on my table.

Ya but it was one of the first 10 under new posts. Why it got me. I didn't realize how old it was before I posted.

 

[theANMATOR]

I have cut back on play quite a bit (mainly due to all u.s. facing sites having F'd up their structures terribly)

Glad your results are better.

Can you expand on the quoted comment above? Generally interested in your opinion re; US facing sites messed up structures.

Not to be a shill - but it seems ACR is doing a solid job - even compared to poker stars.

I can participate in low buyin events for practically pennies - and have a chance a some real decent returns.

Not even on poker stars can you enter a 3000gtd for the 3 bucks, or have a chance at 5k prize pool for as little as 6 dollars.

I cashed for nearly 10x yesterday in a 25k - for the meager amount of 6.60 buy-in.

I'm guessing you might be talking about all the late reg events now prolific throughout most US sites.

Unfortunately BoL and SB have increased nearly all their late registration in all events. Kinda sucks - but on ACR - their is a nice mixture of hypers, regular turbos, regular MTT events, and late reg events. Seems to me it's the best option for US players not living in NV, PA, NJ.

 

[tw082]

Glad your results are better.

Can you expand on the quoted comment above? Generally interested in your opinion re; US facing sites messed up structures.

Not to be a shill - but it seems ACR is doing a solid job - even compared to poker stars.

I can participate in low buyin events for practically pennies - and have a chance a some real decent returns.

Not even on poker stars can you enter a 3000gtd for the 3 bucks, or have a chance at 5k prize pool for as little as 6 dollars.

I cashed for nearly 10x yesterday in a 25k - for the meager amount of 6.60 buy-in.

I'm guessing you might be talking about all the late reg events now prolific throughout most US sites.

Unfortunately BoL and SB have increased nearly all their late registration in all events. Kinda sucks - but on ACR - their is a nice mixture of hypers, regular turbos, regular MTT events, and late reg events. Seems to me it's the best option for US players not living in NV, PA, NJ.

Overall and in general most mtt tournaments have all either lengthened their late registration greatly. Usually by adding more rounds which means higher blinds or even worse there is a KO & PKO fad going around. PKO's especially don't spread the winnings out properly. Then I see coin flip's and Time Trials.

It's nearly impossible to find a $2-$5 reentry or better yet freezout. With 8+ minute blinds and 10-14 late blind rounds. With preferably 1- 1&1/2 hours of late reg at the most 2. Not that long ago I could find these all day at any site. I would have to decide which one was best structured to choose what site I was going to play at. Then I started to play 2-3 at a time across 2 or 3 sites. All under the structure aforementioned. For several hours a day.

Now when I go look there are almost none. So If I have to choose a structure at one time I never considered playing because there were plenty of other ones I preferred. I am a lot less likely to play and that has had a large impact on me cutting back . I was speaking in general how it's changed across all sites as a whole.