Jon Poker
Legend
Silver Level
It's totally real - I lost a spot in a live MTT this past monday where I was 92% to win going into the river. Then busted out on the good side of a 75/25 spot preflop...it happens and it's just part of the game.
Personally, I think this is where 99% of players who want to take this game seriously struggle - understanding how long the actual "long term" is for this game is tough and the swings can crush you mentally. Definitely a game not for the faint of heart. If it were easier there would be way more pros than there already is.
M
Maddened
Rising Star
Bronze Level
No. It is not standard variance. I run p&l everywhere. I'm not saying it's rigged but it is not random. I am approaching 12000 hands and the standard pocket aces is running at 18.26%. when all in preflop, they are winning 0% and before anybody decides to harp in, the sample size is 57 times. I have won money off of it however on that site it seems to be more profitable to set mine. Treat every hand like pocket twos. I hope that helps however there is something funny going on with the RNG. I have checked and seen that it was tested once but I do not believe that they keep up the certification or sample test.
KristaK
Visionary
Silver Level
hi hi :ciao:
i just river a 2 outer, defeated the villain's AA
i sure that guy is on some forum complain that the poker site is rigged?
i just river a 2 outer, defeated the villain's AA
i sure that guy is on some forum complain that the poker site is rigged?
F
fundiver199
Legend
Loyaler
Jon Poker
Legend
Silver Level
Not sure what you are experiencing with your numbers...I have about 70k hands logged on my new laptop and aces are holding about 82% of the time, KKs are 73%, JJs are right at 67%...all of my hands are pretty damn close to their actual numbers. Maybe your pocket AA sample size is too small...even so, under 20% seems unreal. I am not the only one who has numbers consistent with what the odds dictate.
It is cut and dry, I am going to summarize this simply in an attempt to help anyone reading the thread.
For those who choose to believe that variance is real - that there is no difference between live and online variance - you can be successful so long as you are making the correct plays over the long term.
For the rest who choose to keep their heads stuck somewhere - those who choose to believe it is not normal and it's not the same as live. For those who believe it is rigged/different from any other standard of the game -- you are putting up your own road blocks and you are the one holding yourself back from progressing in this game - you are narrow minded and will never progress beyond your current ability level. Dig your own hole - stay suck in it.
It is really that simple...there is no arguement, there is no study proving otherwise - it does not exist. So for thos putting up your own road blocks - as long as you are happy where you are at, you're not hurting my feelings. For those who choose to accept reality, learn how to handle it and grow- good things await you!
M
Maddened
Rising Star
Bronze Level
Your numbers are about accurate to mine in my P&L if you include casino, ignition, poker stars, and global. I preemptively gave my sample size in the statement because that is the same reply everyone has. As stated, I did NOT say it was rigged, and I do account for the weakest players using that site which throws up much higher variance. I was only stating that the RNG was tested once however it is not maintained and that the numbers when that site is taken by itself are very far off. Again, not rigged, not normal.
Jon Poker
Legend
Silver Level
Global doesnt have a way to log hand histories so not sure how those are factored in but I guess that's pretty irrelevant.
I wasnt picking you out specifically - I just compounded my reply after I touched base about your stats and grievances. That being said I think the RNG on most major sites is just fine and those convinced that it's not or that something is wrong are only creating a crutch to lean on which is holding them back and giving them justification for losing rather than them actually taking the time to study and review spots to find out if mistakes were made or it was just variance alone. Ive sewn up lots of old mistakes I used to make - I play much better today than I did yesterday but I also still make mistakes and I dedicate time every week looking for and trying to fix them as well.
That is the difference maker - at least in my mind - and where probably 95% (maybe even more) of the player pool is too lazy or just not willing to put the time and work in to become better. Poker tracker and holdem manager are great tools...if you use them properly. Having them log hands you dont review is just pointless...you can download much cheaper HUDs if that's all you use them for.
I'm just saying - if you have your head in the sand because your mind is already made up, you are missing the bigger picture.
J
Jrobbz10
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I've heard of great poker players going on a 6 month cooler. I don't think variance discriminates or even cares how long it sticks around. In the club I play in people like to chat (just friendly banter) and someone always make a comment like 10's are no good tonight, or AA no good tonight, or KK is good tonight. It's almost as if that seems to be the case and if someone gets that particular hand they are willing to shove just because it seems to be profitable for the night. I believe in variance and I think anyone who feels that they are just plain unlucky is doomed and will not be able to bring their A game to the felt until they have a lucky night or two. I myself have been a victim of this mentality as I'm sure we all have. You take a game like poker where the one variable you cant control is what card comes out next on the board and there is bound to be lot's of joy as well as disappointment. I play with pros who make 100k+ a year playing full time and I watch them lose 1k in a night sometimes because nothing seems to work out in their favor. These players are obviously profitable but for the person who just joined the club and sees this they are assuming that this guy sucks and is on tilt. I think embracing variance and knowing when it's just not your day or week or month is probably the best way to counteract it.
NWPatriot
Rock Star
Silver Level
I have had a similar thought for awhile - why does it seem like I do better at higher stakes than at lower stakes? We "know" that when terrible play gets rewarded at our expense, we should be able to recover, but it doesn't seem to balance out, does it? Does it mean we should play terrible and get rewarded?
I hate this game. When does the next tourney start?
thedarkman
Legend
Platinum Level
There is a lot of truth in that, but there is also a lot of terrible play at higher stakes. Take a gander at some of the higher rate tables on Poker Stars, especially cash games, and you'll see what I mean.
NWPatriot
Rock Star
Silver Level
I absolutely agree. They say because we see so many hands online compared to live play, that these things become more visible or more obvious, This maybe true, but we can't prove it.
I typically don't get on the conspiracy theory bandwagon, but i do take notes on some of the folks that I will call "chosen ones". These are the folks that play horrible poker and always hit their outs. It becomes strange when I have the opportunity to label the same people as "chosen one" time after time. It just appears that these were the folks that were "chosen" to win the SNG before it even started. Are they winning money for the house?
It is the amount of runner runner hands I see that drive me crazy. Runner runner is about a 4% chance of success from the flop, which is equivalent to a 1 outer, yet they happen ALL THE TIME.
Good luck all and God Bless
recerveau
Visionary
Platinum Level
I don't really believe in variance in online poker. I don't trust software very much.Pretty simple question.
Is it REALLY variance when every bust out hand of the day (16 tournaments) was a result of getting it in good - either preflop - or on the flop - and getting beat by the river EVERY SINGLE TIME!!!
If so I'm in for some REALLY GREAT RESULTS in the future - hopefully it is ALL at once - like the crap "variance" has been all piled up for over one entire month now. Just wow!
It seems quite impossible to have EVERY bustout hand end up as a suckout. I know right!
3 of 30 flips for stacks today went in the other players favor when I was ahead either pre or on the flop.
I don't really see how this can balance out over time - I don't suck out on opponents unless I'm short stacked and getting it in at the most +EV time for me. I'm not the big stack shoving K/7 off getting called by 3 players and the runout giving K/7 o trips or better. I see this over and over and over and over just what the crap is all this terrible play - that gets rewarded time and time again. Why play premium hands - when A/3 o is going to crush your KKs every single time - when it matters most.
Yes - if I'm a big stack and someone shoves for 3bb and I have 30+bb I'm going to call with any 2. That isn't a suckout. I'm talking about 2 big stacks battling - and donk hits his trips or better on the river besting the best hand that was betting for value on the flop/turn and on the river or cracks AA with 33. Variance can kiss my @@@ZZZ.
So damn!@!!!!!! aggravating to grind a big stack up all day - making optimal plays and
chipping, up making it into the money and 1-3 hands totally wrecks all the hard work you have done - by some spewy player getting it in bad - as always - and making the winning hand by the river - as always.
If I won the hands that didn't get suckout by the river - I'd be playing mid stakes by now and my graph would look like a friggin malformed RIGHT ANGLE hockey stick!
People who shove preflop crap 22-44, A rag, or Kx off, or any 2 suited should have to sit out for 2 orbits as a penalty.
Tilty complainy angry rant over -
Thanks CC - you are my only outlet!
disclaimer: none of these happened in CC events. Interestingly after the first 30-45 minutes into CC freerolls, after 'those' types of players are gone, there are more competent players, who are competitive and play the game well. Really have to be on my A game when playing in CC events - and that is a great feeling - that competitiveness - better players than 85% of ALL MICRO EVENTS, where (shaking head as I write this) just terrible players are donking all over the game - and getting rewarded. Frustrating!
This is WHY people say they can win - when they play higher stakes. And to those who say if you can't beat micros - you will never be able to compete higher - are full of bunk. Watch ANY pros play at the micro level - they get DESTROYED. Thats why they get in and start playing high buyin micros - or mid stakes. They can't hang at the micros LOL.
This is also why something like 30%+ think these online sites are rigged. I don't - but I can see why other people believe this.
OK really - done now.
As I type this I watch some donk take all my chips when he shoves on the flop I call with A/K with top pair top kicker, and guy turns and rivers JJ to beat me with J/T. Yes - shoves a gutshot and makes trips on turn/river. Every time.
I don't get it.
H
Hemified
Visionary
Bronze Level
I don't think so, but I think it's jus the bad luck of the draw everynow and then. Alot of people get crazy once they make the money and play crazy. I understand that view but 1 could see cheating on smaller sites to favor players but if you play on the bigger legit sites its not like there cheating because you lose everytime. Some1 always has to win no matter what, so its like a game of chance because skill matters and luck comes and screws everything up. Good luck.
theANMATOR
Legend
Bronze Level
Its so funny this thread has been going on - along with out me.
To all - this was a rant about one specific day.
Variance is real - coolers and heaters happen - it all balances out.
There is no online poker rigging by any poker site.
But this thread was really me just blowing off steam from a TERRIBLE day of poker, when all the suckouts were hitting me right when it mattered.
I never came back to say - I think it was 3 days later - I hit quads FIVE times - and EVERY time I got paid - double and even tripling up. Was a GOOD DAY!
I also have another thread condemning pocket KKs - MY favorite hand.
For no less than a year - I was something like 90% with them - all in pre and/or getting the double with them at the river.
Then - I think it was early this year - they just started failing miserably. For no less than a month I think I was something like 25/130 with them. And I'm not the type that just open shoves premiums.
But then know what - I went on a week long streak where KKs were something like 50/60 - It was rare I lost with them.
See it all balances out.
To all - this was a rant about one specific day.
Variance is real - coolers and heaters happen - it all balances out.
There is no online poker rigging by any poker site.
But this thread was really me just blowing off steam from a TERRIBLE day of poker, when all the suckouts were hitting me right when it mattered.
I never came back to say - I think it was 3 days later - I hit quads FIVE times - and EVERY time I got paid - double and even tripling up. Was a GOOD DAY!
I also have another thread condemning pocket KKs - MY favorite hand.
For no less than a year - I was something like 90% with them - all in pre and/or getting the double with them at the river.
Then - I think it was early this year - they just started failing miserably. For no less than a month I think I was something like 25/130 with them. And I'm not the type that just open shoves premiums.
But then know what - I went on a week long streak where KKs were something like 50/60 - It was rare I lost with them.
See it all balances out.
A
analudias
Enthusiast
Silver Level
You´re not alone, my friend. Today (and other days also) I faced the same thing...even with very good cards, I lost a lot of games today. I´m talking about AA / KK (4 times today) / QQ / AK suited. Same situation...winning at pre flop and flop also, but turn and river jeopardized my game. The best thing to me was to stop the games, relax and try another day.
Porras2424
Rock Star
Silver Level
None of you are alone ,,, it happens to all the players, for example I comment to them, I have a month and a half of being in a terrible situation of variance against ,, 40 boxes of losses of $ 2 micro-limits ,, 20 boxes of $ 5 the same ... I have been involved in all the freroll of pokerstar, those of CC, and played around a hundred tournaments and to this day I have won 10 cents, but I continue to seek patience and not one step back perseveres and you will win ,,, everything happens in life ,,, this is the game ... we will be winners friends, luck we lack a little ... but it will come to us ,,,
I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
Pretty simple question.
Is it REALLY variance when every bust out hand of the day (16 tournaments) was a result of getting it in good - either preflop - or on the flop - and getting beat by the river EVERY SINGLE TIME!!!
It's horrible right man?
And the most incredible thing is that I am studying and collecting data on equity that does not take place and so far I have not noticed anything , but I think the problem is in another point is the equity that is against and turns in favor , yes I think it should be non-standard... I used to think that the sites could be defrauded but today I think it might be a system failure.
It's amazing how the RNGs favor the fish is unbelievable, and it seems that the situation is shaped for you to always get bad, even if you dodge the bad beats at the right time a cooler will come.
Ah also there's another question I keep trying to play right and it doesn't work when I'm fed up at the end of the month I tilt and start playing wrong and win. And you have a similar game where mine is very aggressive, maybe even more aggressive than me. Improvements there man! and more luck next session.
GLAVI65
Enthusiast
Silver Level
Pretty simple question.
Is it REALLY variance when every bust out hand of the day (16 tournaments) was a result of getting it in good - either preflop - or on the flop - and getting beat by the river EVERY SINGLE TIME!!!
If so I'm in for some REALLY GREAT RESULTS in the future - hopefully it is ALL at once - like the crap "variance" has been all piled up for over one entire month now. Just wow!
It seems quite impossible to have EVERY bustout hand end up as a suckout. I know right!
3 of 30 flips for stacks today went in the other players favor when I was ahead either pre or on the flop.
I don't really see how this can balance out over time - I don't suck out on opponents unless I'm short stacked and getting it in at the most +EV time for me. I'm not the big stack shoving K/7 off getting called by 3 players and the runout giving K/7 o trips or better. I see this over and over and over and over just what the crap is all this terrible play - that gets rewarded time and time again. Why play premium hands - when A/3 o is going to crush your KKs every single time - when it matters most.
Yes - if I'm a big stack and someone shoves for 3bb and I have 30+bb I'm going to call with any 2. That isn't a suckout. I'm talking about 2 big stacks battling - and donk hits his trips or better on the river besting the best hand that was betting for value on the flop/turn and on the river or cracks AA with 33. Variance can kiss my @@@ZZZ.
So damn!@!!!!!! aggravating to grind a big stack up all day - making optimal plays and
chipping, up making it into the money and 1-3 hands totally wrecks all the hard work you have done - by some spewy player getting it in bad - as always - and making the winning hand by the river - as always.
If I won the hands that didn't get suckout by the river - I'd be playing mid stakes by now and my graph would look like a friggin malformed RIGHT ANGLE hockey stick!
People who shove preflop crap 22-44, A rag, or Kx off, or any 2 suited should have to sit out for 2 orbits as a penalty.
Tilty complainy angry rant over -
Thanks CC - you are my only outlet!
disclaimer: none of these happened in CC events. Interestingly after the first 30-45 minutes into CC freerolls, after 'those' types of players are gone, there are more competent players, who are competitive and play the game well. Really have to be on my A game when playing in CC events - and that is a great feeling - that competitiveness - better players than 85% of ALL MICRO EVENTS, where (shaking head as I write this) just terrible players are donking all over the game - and getting rewarded. Frustrating!
This is WHY people say they can win - when they play higher stakes. And to those who say if you can't beat micros - you will never be able to compete higher - are full of bunk. Watch ANY pros play at the micro level - they get DESTROYED. Thats why they get in and start playing high buyin micros - or mid stakes. They can't hang at the micros LOL.
This is also why something like 30%+ think these online sites are rigged. I don't - but I can see why other people believe this.
OK really - done now.
As I type this I watch some donk take all my chips when he shoves on the flop I call with A/K with top pair top kicker, and guy turns and rivers JJ to beat me with J/T. Yes - shoves a gutshot and makes trips on turn/river. Every time.
I don't get it.
Excellent post in which you become the voice of many who experience similar things to the ones you narrate and feel the same frustration and doubts countless times, but the other side of the coin is when we dare to go with lower ranges and also beat high-ranking hands because "variance" was our ally there. Thanks for sharing. Greetings
I Live Poker
Legend
Platinum Level
@theANMATOR ,Did you see that they are returning by ICM when there is a technical problem? It happened to me in the final straight when I was ITM, that's great although I would have preferred to fight for first place without technical problems.
theANMATOR
Legend
Bronze Level
Pretty simple question.
Is it REALLY variance when every bust out hand of the day (16 tournaments) was a result of getting it in good - either preflop - or on the flop - and getting beat by the river EVERY SINGLE TIME!!!
It's horrible right man?
And the most incredible thing is that I am studying and collecting data on equity that does not take place and so far I have not noticed anything , but I think the problem is in another point is the equity that is against and turns in favor , yes I think it should be non-standard... I used to think that the sites could be defrauded but today I think it might be a system failure.
It's amazing how the RNGs favor the fish is unbelievable, and it seems that the situation is shaped for you to always get bad, even if you dodge the bad beats at the right time a cooler will come.
Ah also there's another question I keep trying to play right and it doesn't work when I'm fed up at the end of the month I tilt and start playing wrong and win. And you have a similar game where mine is very aggressive, maybe even more aggressive than me. Improvements there man! and more luck next session.
I will say this to you friend - you will eventually make it - but don't think the software or poker sites are rigged. That is a hurdle that will hinder your progress.
Seriously bud - you will get there. Just keep plugging away. 33s dont beat KKs every time!!
Not sure what you are saying Jim. Are you saying I'm a hypocrite? Or are you saying I changed my mind?
I'll tell you the truth if you wanna hear it. I was skeptical at first - a little bit - when your set of AAA on the flop loses to runner runner straight - you have to think WTF is this going on here.
But after being in the same position COUNTLESS TIMES calling an overbet on the flop with my oesd - because - hell - I can rebuy if I lose here - and hitting my flush/straight - I know for certain poker sites are not rigged - we all play to win - and sometimes we make loose calls - because we have equity to do so.
Also - I'm not a math guy - I see a line to take - and I'm going to take it - regardless of if the MATHES say I should or should not.
Check out all of my other posts if you are into criticizing other people to see I have sucked out on players - and they have sucked out on me - often.
Its called POKER and its the game we all SHOULD love to play.
