Is it REALLY Variance???

theANMATOR

theANMATOR

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Pretty simple question.

Is it REALLY variance when every bust out hand of the day (16 tournaments) was a result of getting it in good - either preflop - or on the flop - and getting beat by the river EVERY SINGLE TIME!!! :confused::mad::mad::mad:

If so I'm in for some REALLY GREAT RESULTS in the future - hopefully it is ALL at once - like the crap "variance" has been all piled up for over one entire month now. Just wow!

It seems quite impossible to have EVERY bustout hand end up as a suckout. I know right!

3 of 30 flips for stacks today went in the other players favor when I was ahead either pre or on the flop.
I don't really see how this can balance out over time - I don't suck out on opponents unless I'm short stacked and getting it in at the most +EV time for me. I'm not the big stack shoving K/7 off getting called by 3 players and the runout giving K/7 o trips or better. I see this over and over and over and over just what the crap is all this terrible play - that gets rewarded time and time again. Why play premium hands - when A/3 o is going to crush your KKs every single time - when it matters most.
Yes - if I'm a big stack and someone shoves for 3bb and I have 30+bb I'm going to call with any 2. That isn't a suckout. I'm talking about 2 big stacks battling - and donk hits his trips or better on the river besting the best hand that was betting for value on the flop/turn and on the river or cracks AA with 33. Variance can kiss my @@@ZZZ. :eek::eek:

So damn!@!!!!!! aggravating to grind a big stack up all day - making optimal plays and
chipping, up making it into the money and 1-3 hands totally wrecks all the hard work you have done - by some spewy player getting it in bad - as always - and making the winning hand by the river - as always.
If I won the hands that didn't get suckout by the river - I'd be playing mid stakes by now and my graph would look like a friggin malformed RIGHT ANGLE hockey stick!
People who shove preflop crap 22-44, A rag, or Kx off, or any 2 suited should have to sit out for 2 orbits as a penalty. :eek:

Tilty complainy angry rant over -

Thanks CC - you are my only outlet! :)

disclaimer: none of these happened in CC events. Interestingly after the first 30-45 minutes into CC freerolls, after 'those' types of players are gone, there are more competent players, who are competitive and play the game well. Really have to be on my A game when playing in CC events - and that is a great feeling - that competitiveness - better players than 85% of ALL MICRO EVENTS, where (shaking head as I write this) just terrible players are donking all over the game - and getting rewarded. Frustrating! :eek:


This is WHY people say they can win - when they play higher stakes. And to those who say if you can't beat micros - you will never be able to compete higher - are full of bunk. Watch ANY pros play at the micro level - they get DESTROYED. Thats why they get in and start playing high buyin micros - or mid stakes. They can't hang at the micros LOL.

This is also why something like 30%+ think these online sites are rigged. I don't - but I can see why other people believe this.

OK really - done now.

As I type this I watch some donk take all my chips when he shoves on the flop I call with A/K with top pair top kicker, and guy turns and rivers JJ to beat me with J/T. Yes - shoves a gutshot and makes trips on turn/river. Every time.

I don't get it.
 
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popstani

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Well my friend , I understand you totally. I m going through same sh** lately, specially last week. I finally make some small bankroll(50$) from zero. Grinding for a months of freerolls and micro tournaments and being bust on the river 9 of 10 times. Just yesterday I lost when I was 98% favourite on the turn, and on river booom, I’m out. Played 15 or more tournaments didn’t cash in any of them. So what now to do? Grind again? Hope to be lucky once in a hundred times? I don’t know. Maybe it’s just a waste of time
 
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fundiver199

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You are suffering from tilt. Not cashing 15 tournaments in a row is normal. It happen to everyone. For instance this year I had to play 23 of the 3,5$ 45 man SnGs on pokerstars, before I finally cashed in one, and to make matters worse, that was only a min-cash.

As for always busting with the best hand, there are two things to say. The first is, that per definition hands, where you bust from a tournament, are hands, where you were all in and lost. So you are systematically ignoring hands, that you won. And for sure in 15 tournaments, there were some of those as well. You almost certainly did not lose 15 all-in situations in a row.

The second point is, that if you always have the best hand, when you are all-in, then you are playing to tight. Especially when you are the one jamming and getting called, you should often have the worst hand, if your opponents play well. You are talking irritated about "people who shove preflop crap 22-44, rag A or KX off". But depending on stack sizes, position and previous action this is sometimes just good poker.
 
theANMATOR

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LAG vs TAG ?

You are suffering from tilt. Not cashing 15 tournaments in a row is normal. It happen to everyone. For instance this year I had to play 23 of the 3,5$ 45 man SnGs on PokerStars, before I finally cashed in one, and to make matters worse, that was only a min-cash.

As for always busting with the best hand, there are two things to say. The first is, that per definition hands, where you bust from a tournament, are hands, where you were all in and lost. So you are systematically ignoring hands, that you won. And for sure in 15 tournaments, there were some of those as well. You almost certainly did not lose 15 all-in situations in a row.

The second point is, that if you always have the best hand, when you are all-in, then you are playing to tight. Especially when you are the one jamming and getting called, you should often have the worst hand, if your opponents play well. You are talking irritated about "people who shove preflop crap 22-44, rag A or KX off". But depending on stack sizes, position and previous action this is sometimes just good poker.

Thank you for your observation fundiver - I greatly respect your opinion and knowledge you share. However I do not think I'm suffering from tilt. I'm venting - out of flabergastedness. That isn't a real word - until just now. :)


I'm completely at a loss for the amount of bad beats and suckout losses I receive late in events - when it matters.


I have not gone 15 tournaments in a row without cashing. I played a total of 17 tourneys yesterday and cashed in six of them. I don't count min-cashing as winning. FT is winning, anything else is a loss - so that's my sliding scale.


I have experienced a drought of not cashing in events, and yes that is expected at times when the cards don't come early in events. I have experienced that and - it's just poker. I don't tilt over busting out of events when I loose outright. But This is different.

Yes - yesterday there were 30 times I was all-in for my entire stack in those 17 tournaments - where I was called by another player - or more - and of those 30 times - I only won 3 of them. Out of those 30 times - only 3 times I was called by a hand that had me dominated. KK vs AA, QQ vs KK, TT vs AA.

You said - if I am not getting it in bad - I'm playing too tight. Well - I can attest I play good poker - and I'm cashing regularly - but I'm not making FT as often as I would like - and if I were to loosen up - I would not be cashing as often, but maybe making FT more often? Is that what the outcome would be? Genuine question.

No disrespect - you have much more knowledge than I regarding most poker related subjects, but do you think your opinion regarding the amount of LAG vs TAG (at the micro level) might be skewed because you play fast structure SnGs?
I do not play those - often - I play MTTs - and in those events - especially when deep stacked (100+bb) I play A LOT of hands (approx 20% +/- 5%) - but I do not get it in for complete stacks unless I am 75% sure I am the favorite or have the outs to make the call. In addition - I do not use additional software to play poker, no HUD, no odds calculator, no percentage indicator, none of that. I'm getting it in good for stacks - I play TAG/LAG - and I play well - mostly - I believe, but I do not LAG all-in for stacks when the outcome is a speculative coin flip, except when the situation dictates, right - short stacked.
Yes I will shove Tens into 2 all-ins when the play is +EV and I'm not at risk - or I'm playing to win --- you know the situation.

Just one example I 3x open JJ from MP. BB 3x raises my open. I call - because I'm either already beat by a bigger pair, or the opponent is donking with a suited Ace. That is my initial read. I'm not shoving in this spot because JJs aren't the most premium, and opponent could have me dominated. Flop AJT rainbow.
That is middle set - so when BB shoves - that is an easy call. He turns K/T, and of course the river is a Queen. This happens so frequently - it is really baffling.

"per definition hands, where you bust from a tournament, are hands, where you were all in and lost. So you are systematically ignoring hands, that you won."
I am not talking about busting out other players who had the effective stack and choose to go allin with an inferior hand, I'm talking about getting it in good with a superior hand and loosing. Maybe I do not like to go allin with inferior hands preflop - because statistics say - in the long run - that is a loosing outcome. A/J is a consistent looser for me, I try to get it in pre with better, and on the flop - I'm getting it in good +EV for my situation. Sometimes my flush comes in when the opponent has a pair, but I'm not blindly shoving that paired hand pre - because that is not a winning play, it's just luck if the cards fall.
And I see A/5, A/7, and K/J o regularly winning when others put it in preflop for 100+bb. Just odd why those gamblers are rewarded for such reckless play - and they are winning when dominated pre/post flop. Just wrong.

The common knowledge is Tight is Right - especially at the micro level - and this has been working for me - I play TAG/LAG depending on my reads, position and overall entire situation, I regularly cash, but I do not regularly FT. I was regularly making FT during the summer - maybe 2-3 every other day. And now - it's not WORKING!!

LAG - sure - get to final tables more often? I really don't think this is true at the micro level. LAGs bust out more and rebuy more at the micros. I'm not opposed to rebuying - I do it often when I get sucked out on and think I have a good chance to make the money invested back plus, but I don't use that as a crutch to play crappy loose poker. Others do regularly, but I do not. I'd like it if all tourneys were freezeout events - that would eleminate 75% of this overly loose suckout play, but that is a different topic.
One LAG in 50 might make FT more often, but the other 49 LAGs at the micros - are busting more often and rebuying or giving up.

Please add more information here about this topic fundiver. I'm very interested in your point of view.

"people who shove preflop crap 22-44, rag A or KX off". But depending on stack sizes, position and previous action this is sometimes just good poker.
Yes - I'm not talking about those good plays from players who decide to shove 44 from the button with 12bb and end up winning the hand. That is a good situational play - when the read on the blinds is right and the situation presents itself.
I'm talking about a player who shoves 33 from HJ with 100+bb - I call in the SB with KK and get sucked out on. WTF is HJ shoving 100 bb with 33 for? THIS happens regularly - and I continue to think - yes - these are the players I want to play against - because in the long run - he will make that move - and I will call with my dominating hand - and I will win - in the long run - right? But what about right now! I'm playing to win - right now! and that 33 shove is beating me - 27 out of 30 hands! This is why I posted - its not normal.


Well my friend , I understand you totally. I m going through same sh** lately, specially last week. I finally make some small bankroll(50$) from zero. Grinding for a months of freerolls and micro tournaments and being bust on the river 9 of 10 times. Just yesterday I lost when I was 98% favourite on the turn, and on river booom, I’m out. Played 15 or more tournaments didn’t cash in any of them. So what now to do? Grind again? Hope to be lucky once in a hundred times? I don’t know. Maybe it’s just a waste of time
Hey popstani - are you playing low buyin events? At $50 dollars I would play 11 cent, 50 cent, and 1 dollar buyins. I would only play 1 one dollar buyins a day, and as many events as I could at 50 cents and below.
I think that is good bankroll management, however I think I might be quite NITTY with bankroll, compared to others. GL bud - hope you increase your roll and make some cashes in the near future.
 
Bozovicdj

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3/30 in flips sounds unlucky and hardly believable. Also, if you played 16 MTTs and shoved/called a shove and ended up flipping 30 times that sounds a bit too much IMO. Risking MTT life two times per tournament is too much, considering that you are not getting to late stages in every one of those.

Another thing is: there is no such thing as RIGHT NOW in poker. Literally the math doesn't work that way. I mean we always talk about how our decisions work long term, never short term. That is just simple interpretation of statistics.

Thirdly, splitting players into only two categories - LAGs and TAGs is bad.
I'd say that LAGs and TAGs are two groups of players within which, players generally know what they are doing.
Someone who just bets big, or bets all the time, disregarding what his hand is, who the opponent is etc. is just a FISH - bad player.

So when you say its 1 TAG and 49 LAGs, it's probably more like 1TAG, 5LAGs and the rest of them. I srsly doubt that more then 10% of the field is good, and have good knowledge of the game, especially in the micro stakes.


I will give you an example - I am regularly playing 5$ 6man hyper turbo KO SnG. There are like 10 regular players playing there and whenever I play, I can see at least one or two of them playing. Regardless of their type of play, all 10 of them have to be profitable, considering they are playing those SnGs all day every day! Luckily, there are 100 more players playing it, that are just gambling and are fishes which makes it enough for the rest of us LAGs/TAGs
 
perrywh

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Pretty simple question.

Is it REALLY variance when every bust out hand of the day (16 tournaments) was a result of getting it in good - either preflop - or on the flop - and getting beat by the river EVERY SINGLE TIME!!! :confused::mad::mad::mad:

If so I'm in for some REALLY GREAT RESULTS in the future - hopefully it is ALL at once - like the crap "variance" has been all piled up for over one entire month now. Just wow!

It seems quite impossible to have EVERY bustout hand end up as a suckout. I know right!

3 of 30 flips for stacks today went in the other players favor when I was ahead either pre or on the flop.
I don't really see how this can balance out over time - I don't suck out on opponents unless I'm short stacked and getting it in at the most +EV time for me. I'm not the big stack shoving K/7 off getting called by 3 players and the runout giving K/7 o trips or better. I see this over and over and over and over just what the crap is all this terrible play - that gets rewarded time and time again. Why play premium hands - when A/3 o is going to crush your KKs every single time - when it matters most.
Yes - if I'm a big stack and someone shoves for 3bb and I have 30+bb I'm going to call with any 2. That isn't a suckout. I'm talking about 2 big stacks battling - and donk hits his trips or better on the river besting the best hand that was betting for value on the flop/turn and on the river or cracks AA with 33. Variance can kiss my @@@ZZZ. :eek::eek:

So damn!@!!!!!! aggravating to grind a big stack up all day - making optimal plays and
chipping, up making it into the money and 1-3 hands totally wrecks all the hard work you have done - by some spewy player getting it in bad - as always - and making the winning hand by the river - as always.
If I won the hands that didn't get suckout by the river - I'd be playing mid stakes by now and my graph would look like a friggin malformed RIGHT ANGLE hockey stick!
People who shove preflop crap 22-44, A rag, or Kx off, or any 2 suited should have to sit out for 2 orbits as a penalty. :eek:

Tilty complainy angry rant over -

Thanks CC - you are my only outlet! :)

disclaimer: none of these happened in CC events. Interestingly after the first 30-45 minutes into CC freerolls, after 'those' types of players are gone, there are more competent players, who are competitive and play the game well. Really have to be on my A game when playing in CC events - and that is a great feeling - that competitiveness - better players than 85% of ALL MICRO EVENTS, where (shaking head as I write this) just terrible players are donking all over the game - and getting rewarded. Frustrating! :eek:


This is WHY people say they can win - when they play higher stakes. And to those who say if you can't beat micros - you will never be able to compete higher - are full of bunk. Watch ANY pros play at the micro level - they get DESTROYED. Thats why they get in and start playing high buyin micros - or mid stakes. They can't hang at the micros LOL.

This is also why something like 30%+ think these online sites are rigged. I don't - but I can see why other people believe this.

OK really - done now.

As I type this I watch some donk take all my chips when he shoves on the flop I call with A/K with top pair top kicker, and guy turns and rivers JJ to beat me with J/T. Yes - shoves a gutshot and makes trips on turn/river. Every time.


I don't get it.

I call it online poker!!!!
 
Poker Orifice

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Pretty simple question.

Is it REALLY variance when every bust out hand of the day (16 tournaments) was a result of getting it in good - either preflop - or on the flop - and getting beat by the river EVERY SINGLE TIME!!! :confused::mad::mad::mad:


It's pretty normal.
I can't recall being profitable on Sunday tourneys in a longggg time. Yesterday I thought I was motoring along pretty well, sitting with a decent sized stack 3 & 4hrs. into a few, sitting with over 100bb's in two of them... & then WHAM.. WHAM... WHAM!! Ended up with only a couple min-cashes on the day :( (two biggest hits were with AA because we were willing to get the most in with them I guess... they just didn't hold up.. sniff sniff).

And the saying actually is "If we're not getting it in bad, we're not getting it in enough!" (< this is fact!). The first time I heard this comment was from Shaun Deeb. And I'm still working on it.

Tournament poker is by far the hardest on the head imo. I mean it's great when you go deep in an MTT but it is more often extremely painful. (or dismal). I've just recently been playing a few... thinking I'd make a go of them for a bit but already I'm not so sure if I'm up to the task :( ('maybe')
 
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fundiver199

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The simple fact is, swings are a normal part of poker, and 16 tournaments is an incredibly small sample. You can not expect results "right now" over such a small sample, because this is simply not the way, poker work.

As an example you can take my graph on sharkscope for my PokerStars account and see the swing, I just went through. Down 250$ and then up 300$ over a fairly small sample, and this is with an average buyin for 2020 of just 3,25$, so its nearly a 100 BI swing.

For the record I also play some large tournaments in the weekends. But on weekdays I work, and this only leave time for either cash games, single table SnGs or something like the turbo multi table SnGs on Stars, since these are generally over in less than 2 hours.

https://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-Statistics//networks/PokerStars/players/Fundiver199
 
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fundiver199

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And I see A/5, A/7, and K/J o regularly winning when others put it in preflop for 100+bb. Just odd why those gamblers are rewarded for such reckless play - and they are winning when dominated pre/post flop. Just wrong.

The thing is, these hands are supposed to win, and probably at a higher frequenzy, that you emotionally feel is right. AX rag has 30% equity against KK, and KJo has 45% against TT. Also you probably notice it more, when the bad hand win, than when it loses, so your brain is not "collecting data" in an objective way.

Finally it is also important to remember, that we actually want bad players to win. If they always lost, they would probably stop playing pretty quickly. But because they can also experience that winning feeling some percentage of the time, they keep coming back and keep the whole gravy train rolling.

What you are expressing is classic tilt. You expect results "right now", and you feel entitled to win all the time, if you are better than the opponents. But this is not, how poker work, so these are mental issues, you need to adress and work on.
 
tw082

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All I know is that the numbers don't make sense when compared to live statistics. It makes it really hard to keep playing good poker when constantly getting beat by runners after getting it in good pre or post flop.
 
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Pretty simple question.


Pretty simple answer: YES


I didnt read through your whole post, but busting 16 times when you are ahead is still called Variance.
let's say you get it in 60:40 you are still losing 40 Hands out of 100
sure, busting when you are ahead 16x a day is kinda tilting but on another day you might be able to double up 16 times ;)


on the Long run your ev bb/100 should be really close to the actual bb/100.
there are Always some days where you have a huge cap between those values, but it can go either way
 
perrywh

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Variance! True! But online variance and playing live variance are two different things.
 
Tracid

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Sadly, yes.

It's probably not good to even talk about (what you focus on grows[ :D ]), but in honour of your topic and post;

I've had a horrific downswing before that lasted months, heard of it happening to people for years.

Talking about EVERYTHING you touch turns to dust. To add insult to injury everything you fold flops nuts, and rivers stones.

You'd be forgiven for thinking 'heck, I'll just invert my starting range and we're gravy..'.. Nope.

Sometimes.

It. Doesnt. Matter. What. You. Do.

It's wrong. You lose.

The guy calls all in on the flop with J9o AIR. No pair. No flush draw. No straight draw. He has air. He's jack high. You have AA. Of course you do, because you're a solid TAG player who knows how to mix it up and get people to call it off in spots like this because they are either utterly clueless to how strong you are (because you're more deceptively-misleading than a chameleon at a fancy dress party) or they're there to gamble and ATC will do. Either way, you've been patient, accumulated every itty-bitty chip you can along a gruelling gauntlet of decision making, done everything right and have valiantly, justly claimed a huge equity stake! Turn 9. River 9. You're in the lobby.

Sometimes, this happens. I can personally testify. Sometimes, *shudder* this happens for extended periods of time.

Don't give in to negative feedback loops. Identify it for what it really is (a s****y, seemingly undeserved occurrence [or otherwise]) and move on.

This will require analysis, decompression, often a break and everyone's-favourite-thing some more studying.

Also, if you don't already have, get some kind of tracking software even if you aren't going to use HUD's or anything, just so you can see the full data* in the cold light of day.


I do not play those - often - I play MTTs - and in those events - especially when deep stacked (100+bb) I play A LOT of hands (approx 20% +/- 5%) - but I do not get it in for complete stacks unless I am 75% sure I am the favorite or have the outs to make the call. In addition - I do not use additional software to play poker, no HUD, no odds calculator, no percentage indicator, none of that. I'm getting it in good for stacks - I play TAG/LAG - and I play well - mostly - I believe, but I do not LAG all-in for stacks when the outcome is a speculative coin flip, except when the situation dictates, right - short stacked.

May I ask, as it seems you don't in fact utilise any software, how have you been tracking your hands and sourcing your quoted data?


If nothing else... I hope this post makes you feel at least, less alone.

:cheers:


* When I say data here, I mean your own hand/tournament data for retrospective analysis, not any of the live HUD, just all the decisions you made in all the spots you played. This data is wherein lies the truth.
 
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Eric Salvador

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In small sample sizes it won’t but over long periods of time it will. Also I’m sure mistakes have been made that increase the likelihood of what appears to be variance. It could’ve been a mistake in a previous hand that caused you to bleed chips. It could be that you didn’t properly assess the hand and/or opponents. It could be game selection. It’s very complex to understand if it’s variance or your actual play.
 
theANMATOR

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3/30 in flips sounds unlucky and hardly believable.
This is the exact reason for this post existing. Hardly believable is correct - it was truly unbelievable.
I knew I was on a bad run when busting out of the events, but after I looked back at my stats, I was astonished by the fact every bust out hand was a result of a losing hand winning by the river. So this is why I decided to create the thread. It's simply statistically odd?!

Unlucky is - seemingly what it is. I'll be having some extra-ordinary good luck sometime in the future events at key decisions. Looking forward to when that happens.

Also, if you played 16 MTTs and shoved/called a shove and ended up flipping 30 times that sounds a bit too much IMO. Risking MTT life two times per tournament is too much, considering that you are not getting to late stages in every one of those.
This is a very interesting statement. What stakes do you play Bozovicdj? I ask because - it is possible - at higher
stakes - not - flipping for stacks more than twice in one event is normal?

In the games I play, at the micro level on ACR - flipping for stacks ONLY 2 times per event, MTTs that ranges from 3-8 hours in length, is abnormal. I try REAL hard not to preflop shove without a premium hand. Sometimes the 'situation' dictates you have to make a call of a preflop shove - even if you are not calling with the best hand.

If a short stack (8bb) shoves and it folds to you on the button with 28bb, do you call with K/Q off, A/9, pocket 88s? Serious question. Yes - this isn't flipping for stacks, but this is a common position - that most +EV poker players will make the call. And then - you loose the flip. And now you are left with 20bb, essentially a shove/fold - if you are now considered a short stack on the table, with 3 or 4 other players at your table that have 50-80+ bb and they are opening 4x every hand - between them.

The next hand you will play with this stack is an all-in. That is just one example.

At the micros on ACR, 0.11-3.30 buyin, it is not uncommon to play for stacks 3+ times per event. This common occurrence is less in larger buyins I have played, but not much.

Also adding in freerolls into the equation, for the first 30 minutes of any freeroll - there is no less than 3 people shoving every 2 hands. To play nearly ANY hand in freerolls in the first 30 minutes - you will be playing for your entire stack either by a player shoving on your - or by the river. This is just normal.

Another thing is: there is no such thing as RIGHT NOW in poker. Literally the math doesn't work that way. I mean we always talk about how our decisions work long term, never short term. That is just simple interpretation of statistics.
I understand you here, and it relates to overall statistics 'balancing' out statistically in the long run,, and also making calls with pot odds. I was expressing 'right now' how statistically being the favorite in 17 hands - which just happen to be the hands that ended up busting me out of those events - how is this statistically possible to loose every hand - when I was the favorite when all the money went into the pot.
Over time - in the long run - when I play my last hand of poker the overall statistics will have balanced out to be that those hands that day - that ended up losing - will be statistically accurate. Like I said - it looks like I'm in for some real nice results in the future - when the 60/40, 70/30, 59/41 hands hold up more and more - because at this point - they are at odds with the general statistics. See what I'm saying here?


Thirdly, splitting players into only two categories - LAGs and TAGs is bad.
I'd say that LAGs and TAGs are two groups of players within which, players generally know what they are doing.
Someone who just bets big, or bets all the time, disregarding what his hand is, who the opponent is etc. is just a FISH - bad player.
So when you say its 1 TAG and 49 LAGs, it's probably more like 1TAG, 5LAGs and the rest of them. I srsly doubt that more then 10% of the field is good, and have good knowledge of the game, especially in the micro stakes.
You misinterpreted what I was saying Bozovicdj. I was talking about my play style. I was relating how I play to the two general styles LAG/TAG.
The fish you describe above - are easy to play against, and a HUGE resource of chips. I just hope I'm able to get to them before any other player wakes up with a playable hand and takes that resource before I can. :)

I was referring to a suggestion by fundiver that I should play looser than I currently am. I was asking a genuine question - but relating it to how I see LAGs play. 49/50 LAGs are loose and aggressive - and they are often rebuying. Because they are loose. 1 out of 50 might make final table more often than the rest of the LAGs - but generally - those players at the micro level are taking advantage of the rebuy ability - they shove with worse - hoping to suckout and build up a big stack. 30% of the time - they get lucky - 70% of the time - they bust and rebuy. I don't see those players making final tables as often as strong TAG/LAG players. Just my observation.
There are several other player types - but - in my opinion they are easy to play against.


flabergastedness………. Good new word!!!!
If you need more just holler - I have loads! :)


It's pretty normal.
I can't recall being profitable on Sunday tourneys in a longggg time. Yesterday I thought I was motoring along pretty well, sitting with a decent sized stack 3 & 4hrs. into a few, sitting with over 100bb's in two of them... & then WHAM.. WHAM... WHAM!! Ended up with only a couple min-cashes on the day (two biggest hits were with AA because we were willing to get the most in with them I guess... they just didn't hold up.. sniff sniff).
And the saying actually is "If we're not getting it in bad, we're not getting it in enough!" (< this is fact!). The first time I heard this comment was from Shaun Deeb. And I'm still working on it.
Tournament poker is by far the hardest on the head imo. I mean it's great when you go deep in an MTT but it is more often extremely painful. (or dismal). I've just recently been playing a few... thinking I'd make a go of them for a bit but already I'm not so sure if I'm up to the task ('maybe')
Your experience pretty much detailed my exact same Sunday. I think I went into the day with higher expectations than I should of had. And - just like you - I had several good runs that were cut short - all by suckouts - which is really weird. All of them!
I understand Shaun Deebs statement - related to pot odds - and situations dictating those actions. I'm just not the type of player to shove A/7 off suit preflop with 100+ bb - because I HAVE AN ACE. I see this recklessness play often - and it truly baffles me when that player cracks pocket KKs and TTs, and A/Q suited by hitting hitting two pair. Just bad play in my opinion.

I might be sadistic - because I love/enjoy/desire the MTT competitiveness structure. I think it's so cool we can pay 2 bucks and have a chance to win $200 or more. I also come from a individual sporting background - so the individualistic nature of MTTs - concur the entire field - is very appealing to me.


I mean sometimes i do start to wonder lol but if this happened to me 20 tourneys in a day i think i would be done https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/124uzVHkG
Thank you shane - you get it - this happened to me 17 times - nearing final table, soon after ITM or just prior to ITM. It is a statistical anomaly. I've bounced back though - no FT yet - but have been in the money - and was actually beat by several better hands - to bust out. :) not worse hands!


The simple fact is, swings are a normal part of poker, and 16 tournaments is an incredibly small sample. You can not expect results "right now" over such a small sample, because this is simply not the way, poker work.
As an example you can take my graph on Sharkscope for my PokerStars account and see the swing, I just went through. Down 250$ and then up 300$ over a fairly small sample, and this is with an average buyin for 2020 of just 3,25$, so its nearly a 100 BI swing.
For the record I also play some large tournaments in the weekends. But on weekdays I work, and this only leave time for either cash games, single table SnGs or something like the turbo multi table SnGs on Stars, since these are generally over in less than 2 hours.

https://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-Statistics//networks/PokerStars/players/Fundiver199

Thanks for showing your graph fundiver - that seriously makes a lot of sense.
Though my initial post was reflecting on 17 bust out hands that lost against hands that were weaker, I can see how this - in a larger sample size is just a micro window into a larger field of hands that will eventually normalize.


The thing is, these hands are supposed to win, and probably at a higher frequency, that you emotionally feel is right. AX rag has 30% equity against KK, and KJo has 45% against TT. Also you probably notice it more, when the bad hand win, than when it loses, so your brain is not "collecting data" in an objective way.
Finally it is also important to remember, that we actually want bad players to win. If they always lost, they would probably stop playing pretty quickly. But because they can also experience that winning feeling some percentage of the time, they keep coming back and keep the whole gravy train rolling.
What you are expressing is classic tilt. You expect results "right now", and you feel entitled to win all the time, if you are better than the opponents. But this is not, how poker work, so these are mental issues, you need to address and work on.
You make a good point fundiver. I guess I'm just astonished that 30% and 40% came in every time on Sunday.
The last event I played in - the example I provided - my set was 85% to win. That 15% came in and I was out, and that was the last hand of the day.
I understand those hands win 1/3 and 1/4 of the time - but they ended up winning 100% out of 17 times. That's odd right? (no conspiracies - just weird)

Regarding tilt - this might be a case of post-tilt - but this is not something that affects me when I'm playing. Bust out - ok - I have 4 other tourneys going on - Lets focus on the next decision. I knew I was getting beat by several hands that I would have won against - as the day progressed, but I wasn't sure exactly about all of them - until I checked my results.



Pretty simple answer: YES
I didnt read through your whole post, but busting 16 times when you are ahead is still called Variance.
let's say you get it in 60:40 you are still losing 40 Hands out of 100
sure, busting when you are ahead 16x a day is kinda tilting but on another day you might be able to double up 16 times
on the Long run your ev bb/100 should be really close to the actual bb/100.
there are Always some days where you have a huge cap between those values, but it can go either way
Thanks Veritas - I'm looking forward to that 16x win day!! HA!




Sadly, yes.
It's probably not good to even talk about (what you focus on grows[ ]), but in honor of your topic and post;
I've had a horrific downswing before that lasted months, heard of it happening to people for years.
Talking about EVERYTHING you touch turns to dust. To add insult to injury everything you fold flops nuts, and rivers stones.
You'd be forgiven for thinking 'heck, I'll just invert my starting range and we're gravy..'.. Nope.
Sometimes.
It. Doesnt. Matter. What. You. Do.
It's wrong. You lose.
The guy calls all in on the flop with J9o AIR. No pair. No flush draw. No straight draw. He has air. He's jack high. You have AA. Of course you do, because you're a solid TAG player who knows how to mix it up and get people to call it off in spots like this because they are either utterly clueless to how strong you are (because you're more deceptively-misleading than a chameleon at a fancy dress party) or they're there to gamble and ATC will do. Either way, you've been patient, accumulated every itty-bitty chip you can along a grueling gauntlet of decision making, done everything right and have valiantly, justly claimed a huge equity stake! Turn 9. River 9. You're in the lobby.

Sometimes, this happens. I can personally testify. Sometimes, *shudder* this happens for extended periods of time.

Don't give in to negative feedback loops. Identify it for what it really is (a s****y, seemingly undeserved occurrence [or otherwise]) and move on.

This will require analysis, decompression, often a break and everyone's-favourite-thing some more studying.

Also, if you don't already have, get some kind of tracking software even if you aren't going to use HUD's or anything, just so you can see the full data* in the cold light of day.

May I ask, as it seems you don't in fact utilise any software, how have you been tracking your hands and sourcing your quoted data?

If nothing else... I hope this post makes you feel at least, less alone.

* When I say data here, I mean your own hand/tournament data for retrospective analysis, not any of the live HUD, just all the decisions you made in all the spots you played. This data is wherein lies the truth.

Thanks for your supportive input Tracid.
That chameleon you talk about - that is an awesome description. That is not me early in events. I like to play straight up early on - then switch it up after a certain point. I try to be more like the cheshire cat. One minute I'm playing all face up, betting out strong - and goading my opponents to calling me down with bunk - because I got da nuts, and 10 minutes later - I'm limping with - idk - and check calling - with idk - gotta go to showdown to find out. :)

Re: software I'm looking into getting some data tracking software in the future for the exact reasons you stated.
At this point I'm copying all relevant hand history data into my own database - and reviewing the following day or two. Yes - I know manually archaic - but it's just a quick simple 2 second process - that works fine. Not as good as the automated software - which is far superior and provides truck loads of other 'mostly' relevant data - but that data - in my opinion - isn't really important at the levels I play currently.
 
theANMATOR

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Update - yep - musta been variance. Nearly quadrupled my BR yesterday. Same spots as before - except stuff held up this time.

All ya'll were all correct! :D;)
 
perrywh

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Got beat back to back yesterday in tournament by quads to my full house. qqqq to my kkqqq and jjjj to my 888jj What are the odds? I was happy the tournament froze up after that and got my buy in back after playing 5 hrs.
 
TeUnit

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The good news is the better you are the less the variance, so its always good in tough times to review your hands and work on your game.
 
theANMATOR

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Variance blows - but could be reduced - & MOSS reschedules

Got beat back to back yesterday in tournament by quads to my full house. qqqq to my kkqqq and jjjj to my 888jj What are the odds? I was happy the tournament froze up after that and got my buy in back after playing 5 hrs.
Just a heads up perry - if one of the events that froze up on your was MOSS #2, 7 or 8. It looks like Phil is sticking to his word and rescheduling them. I see they are on the micro schedule for this upcoming Sunday.
I was also involved in a tourney that froze up when there were only 40 players left, and I was 3rd in chips at that point. I think they ICM'd everyone left in the event.
Glad to see a couple of the smaller MOSS events that were prematurely concluded because of software issues is being re-ran.

you feel entitled to win all the time, if you are better than the opponents. But this is not, how poker work,

The good news is the better you are the less the variance, so its always good in tough times to review your hands and work on your game.
Can you expand on this TeUnit? and fundiver if you have something to add.
I'd pose the question - how is variance lessened - by how well a person plays?
Using what I would consider a standard TAG player, who does not call shoves preflop except with QQ, KK, AA, A/K, and certain high pp and suited connectors in situations that warrant it. 3betting standard spots with strong holdings, and playing post flop tight and aggressively with strong hands. Exploiting position and value betting effectively.
How is variance mitigated or reduced when getting it in good with KK+ preflop or on the flop, calling a preflop shove - and loosing to 66 or A/J. Or betting strong on flop and turn when the TAG flops middle set - only to get called down to the river where the straight/flush comes in.
Genuine question.
I guess over the long term - playing well and not donking off - will eventually lead to overall hands holding up to the standard percentage they are supposed to hold up.
Though - I don't see how this changes variance in any way.

To be honest - if people stopped shoving preflop - variance would drastically change. So many people think ANY pocket pair, any suited ace from any position, or any 2 broadway cards are the nuts SHOVE PREFLOP- its quite - mystifying.

If more players worked on there postflop play and played hands out, QQs would not get sucked out on so often - because it'd be obvious the straight came in, the flush hit on the turn, the double paired board is beating my starting pocket pair. That would reduce variance for almost everybody. Fat chance of that happening though - preflop shove - guess what I have - is part of the game - that makes luck such a strong contributing factor.
 
F

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Variance can be reduced by choosing the more defensive option, when the EVs are running close. Like folding instead of calling, calling instead of reraising etc. Reducing variance is the rationale behind a lot of the things, you see good players do in tournaments but not in cash games.
 
Jon Poker

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Not that it matters - but yes its variance. You play long term and stay focused among enough and you will see it more and more..

As an example a few weeks ago I ran into like 5 losing set over set situations in one session, I havnt ran into set over set in quite a while fortunately but soooooo many times in one day was frustrating. Anyhow, the other side to this is Sunday evening I had 99s across multiple games multiple times and probably flopped a set with them somewhere around 6/8 times - was unreal! The point is variance is unwavering, she has a good side and a bad side - don't sweat the bad side as all we can do is get our money in good and the rest is up to fate - and the good side is just so fun lol ride the good side wave when it comes around!

Anyhow,.you play long enough you will notice variance and learn to not pay much attention to it but rather stay focused on proper play and brm.
 
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