3/30 in flips sounds unlucky and hardly believable.
This is the exact reason for this post existing. Hardly believable is correct - it was truly unbelievable.
I knew I was on a bad run when busting out of the events, but after I looked back at my stats, I was astonished by the fact every bust out hand was a result of a losing hand winning by the river. So this is why I decided to create the thread. It's simply statistically odd?!
Unlucky is - seemingly what it is. I'll be having some extra-ordinary good luck sometime in the future events at key decisions. Looking forward to when that happens.
Also, if you played 16 MTTs and shoved/called a shove and ended up flipping 30 times that sounds a bit too much IMO. Risking MTT life two times per tournament is too much, considering that you are not getting to late stages in every one of those.
This is a very interesting statement. What stakes do you play Bozovicdj? I ask because - it is possible - at higher
stakes - not - flipping for stacks more than twice in one event is normal?
In the games I play, at the micro level on ACR - flipping for stacks ONLY 2 times per event, MTTs that ranges from 3-8 hours in length, is abnormal. I try REAL hard not to preflop shove without a premium hand. Sometimes the 'situation' dictates you have to make a call of a preflop shove - even if you are not calling with the best hand.
If a short stack (8bb) shoves and it folds to you on the button with 28bb, do you call with K/Q off, A/9, pocket 88s? Serious question. Yes - this isn't flipping for stacks, but this is a common position - that most +EV poker players will make the call. And then - you loose the flip. And now you are left with 20bb, essentially a shove/fold - if you are now considered a short stack on the table, with 3 or 4 other players at your table that have 50-80+ bb and they are opening 4x every hand - between them.
The next hand you will play with this stack is an all-in. That is just one example.
At the micros on ACR, 0.11-3.30 buyin, it is not uncommon to play for stacks 3+ times per event. This common occurrence is less in larger buyins I have played, but not much.
Also adding in freerolls into the equation, for the first 30 minutes of any freeroll - there is no less than 3 people shoving every 2 hands. To play nearly ANY hand in freerolls in the first 30 minutes - you will be playing for your entire stack either by a player shoving on your - or by the river. This is just normal.
Another thing is: there is no such thing as RIGHT NOW in poker. Literally the math doesn't work that way. I mean we always talk about how our decisions work long term, never short term. That is just simple interpretation of statistics.
I understand you here, and it relates to overall statistics 'balancing' out statistically in the long run,, and also making calls with
pot odds. I was expressing 'right now' how statistically being the favorite in 17 hands - which just happen to be the hands that ended up busting me out of those events - how is this statistically possible to loose every hand - when I was the favorite when all the money went into the pot.
Over time - in the long run - when I play my last hand of poker the overall statistics will have balanced out to be that those hands that day - that ended up losing - will be statistically accurate. Like I said - it looks like I'm in for some real nice results in the future - when the 60/40, 70/30, 59/41 hands hold up more and more - because at this point - they are at odds with the general statistics. See what I'm saying here?
Thirdly, splitting players into only two categories - LAGs and TAGs is bad.
I'd say that LAGs and TAGs are two groups of players within which, players generally know what they are doing.
Someone who just bets big, or bets all the time, disregarding what his hand is, who the opponent is etc. is just a FISH - bad player.
So when you say its 1 TAG and 49 LAGs, it's probably more like 1TAG, 5LAGs and the rest of them. I srsly doubt that more then 10% of the field is good, and have good knowledge of the game, especially in the micro stakes.
You misinterpreted what I was saying Bozovicdj. I was talking about my play style. I was relating how I play to the two general styles LAG/TAG.
The fish you describe above - are easy to play against, and a HUGE resource of chips. I just hope I'm able to get to them before any other player wakes up with a playable hand and takes that resource before I can.
I was referring to a suggestion by fundiver that I should play looser than I currently am. I was asking a genuine question - but relating it to how I see LAGs play. 49/50 LAGs are loose and aggressive - and they are often rebuying. Because they are loose. 1 out of 50 might make final table more often than the rest of the LAGs - but generally - those players at the micro level are taking advantage of the rebuy ability - they shove with worse - hoping to suckout and build up a big stack. 30% of the time - they get lucky - 70% of the time - they bust and rebuy. I don't see those players making final tables as often as strong TAG/LAG players. Just my observation.
There are several other player types - but - in my opinion they are easy to play against.
flabergastedness………. Good new word!!!!
If you need more just holler - I have loads!
It's pretty normal.
I can't recall being profitable on Sunday tourneys in a longggg time. Yesterday I thought I was motoring along pretty well, sitting with a decent sized stack 3 & 4hrs. into a few, sitting with over 100bb's in two of them... & then WHAM.. WHAM... WHAM!! Ended up with only a couple min-cashes on the day (two biggest hits were with AA because we were willing to get the most in with them I guess... they just didn't hold up.. sniff sniff).
And the saying actually is "If we're not getting it in bad, we're not getting it in enough!" (< this is fact!). The first time I heard this comment was from Shaun Deeb. And I'm still working on it.
Tournament poker is by far the hardest on the head imo. I mean it's great when you go deep in an MTT but it is more often extremely painful. (or dismal). I've just recently been playing a few... thinking I'd make a go of them for a bit but already I'm not so sure if I'm up to the task ('maybe')
Your experience pretty much detailed my exact same Sunday. I think I went into the day with higher expectations than I should of had. And - just like you - I had several good runs that were cut short - all by suckouts - which is really weird. All of them!
I understand Shaun Deebs statement - related to pot odds - and situations dictating those actions. I'm just not the type of player to shove A/7 off suit preflop with 100+ bb - because I HAVE AN ACE. I see this recklessness play often - and it truly baffles me when that player cracks pocket KKs and TTs, and A/Q suited by hitting hitting two pair. Just bad play in my opinion.
I might be sadistic - because I love/enjoy/desire the MTT competitiveness structure. I think it's so cool we can pay 2 bucks and have a chance to win $200 or more. I also come from a individual sporting background - so the individualistic nature of MTTs - concur the entire field - is very appealing to me.
I mean sometimes i do start to wonder lol but if this happened to me 20 tourneys in a day i think i would be done
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/124uzVHkG
Thank you shane - you get it - this happened to me 17 times - nearing final table, soon after ITM or just prior to ITM. It is a statistical anomaly. I've bounced back though - no FT yet - but have been in the money - and was actually beat by several better hands - to bust out.
not worse hands!
The simple fact is, swings are a normal part of poker, and 16 tournaments is an incredibly small sample. You can not expect results "right now" over such a small sample, because this is simply not the way, poker work.
As an example you can take my graph on Sharkscope for my PokerStars account and see the swing, I just went through. Down 250$ and then up 300$ over a fairly small sample, and this is with an average buyin for 2020 of just 3,25$, so its nearly a 100 BI swing.
For the record I also play some large tournaments in the weekends. But on weekdays I work, and this only leave time for either cash games, single table SnGs or something like the turbo multi table SnGs on Stars, since these are generally over in less than 2 hours.
https://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-Statistics//networks/PokerStars/players/Fundiver199
Thanks for showing your graph fundiver - that seriously makes a lot of sense.
Though my initial post was reflecting on 17 bust out hands that lost against hands that were weaker, I can see how this - in a larger sample size is just a micro window into a larger field of hands that will eventually normalize.
The thing is, these hands are supposed to win, and probably at a higher frequency, that you emotionally feel is right. AX rag has 30% equity against KK, and KJo has 45% against TT. Also you probably notice it more, when the bad hand win, than when it loses, so your brain is not "collecting data" in an objective way.
Finally it is also important to remember, that we actually want bad players to win. If they always lost, they would probably stop playing pretty quickly. But because they can also experience that winning feeling some percentage of the time, they keep coming back and keep the whole gravy train rolling.
What you are expressing is classic tilt. You expect results "right now", and you feel entitled to win all the time, if you are better than the opponents. But this is not, how poker work, so these are mental issues, you need to address and work on.
You make a good point fundiver. I guess I'm just astonished that 30% and 40% came in every time on Sunday.
The last event I played in - the example I provided - my set was 85% to win. That 15% came in and I was out, and that was the last hand of the day.
I understand those hands win 1/3 and 1/4 of the time - but they ended up winning 100% out of 17 times. That's odd right? (no conspiracies - just weird)
Regarding tilt - this might be a case of post-tilt - but this is not something that affects me when I'm playing. Bust out - ok - I have 4 other tourneys going on - Lets focus on the next decision. I knew I was getting beat by several hands that I would have won against - as the day progressed, but I wasn't sure exactly about all of them - until I checked my results.
Pretty simple answer: YES
I didnt read through your whole post, but busting 16 times when you are ahead is still called Variance.
let's say you get it in 60:40 you are still losing 40 Hands out of 100
sure, busting when you are ahead 16x a day is kinda tilting but on another day you might be able to double up 16 times
on the Long run your ev bb/100 should be really close to the actual bb/100.
there are Always some days where you have a huge cap between those values, but it can go either way
Thanks Veritas - I'm looking forward to that 16x win day!! HA!
Sadly, yes.
It's probably not good to even talk about (what you focus on grows[ ]), but in honor of your topic and post;
I've had a horrific downswing before that lasted months, heard of it happening to people for years.
Talking about EVERYTHING you touch turns to dust. To add insult to injury everything you fold flops nuts, and rivers stones.
You'd be forgiven for thinking 'heck, I'll just invert my starting range and we're gravy..'.. Nope.
Sometimes.
It. Doesnt. Matter. What. You. Do.
It's wrong. You lose.
The guy calls all in on the flop with J9o AIR. No pair. No flush draw. No straight draw. He has air. He's jack high. You have AA. Of course you do, because you're a solid TAG player who knows how to mix it up and get people to call it off in spots like this because they are either utterly clueless to how strong you are (because you're more deceptively-misleading than a chameleon at a fancy dress party) or they're there to gamble and ATC will do. Either way, you've been patient, accumulated every itty-bitty chip you can along a grueling gauntlet of decision making, done everything right and have valiantly, justly claimed a huge equity stake! Turn 9. River 9. You're in the lobby.
Sometimes, this happens. I can personally testify. Sometimes, *shudder* this happens for extended periods of time.
Don't give in to negative feedback loops. Identify it for what it really is (a s****y, seemingly undeserved occurrence [or otherwise]) and move on.
This will require analysis, decompression, often a break and everyone's-favourite-thing some more studying.
Also, if you don't already have, get some kind of tracking software even if you aren't going to use HUD's or anything, just so you can see the full data* in the cold light of day.
May I ask, as it seems you don't in fact utilise any software, how have you been tracking your hands and sourcing your quoted data?
If nothing else... I hope this post makes you feel at least, less alone.
* When I say data here, I mean your own hand/tournament data for retrospective analysis, not any of the live HUD, just all the decisions you made in all the spots you played. This data is wherein lies the truth.
Thanks for your supportive input Tracid.
That chameleon you talk about - that is an awesome description. That is not me early in events. I like to play straight up early on - then switch it up after a certain point. I try to be more like the cheshire cat. One minute I'm playing all face up, betting out strong - and goading my opponents to calling me down with bunk - because I got da nuts, and 10 minutes later - I'm limping with - idk - and check calling - with idk - gotta go to showdown to find out.
Re: software I'm looking into getting some data tracking software in the future for the exact reasons you stated.
At this point I'm copying all relevant hand history data into my own database - and reviewing the following day or two. Yes - I know manually archaic - but it's just a quick simple 2 second process - that works fine. Not as good as the automated software - which is far superior and provides truck loads of other 'mostly' relevant data - but that data - in my opinion - isn't really important at the levels I play currently.
