Is it REALLY Variance???

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JimTheBadger

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I will say this to you friend - you will eventually make it - but don't think the software or poker sites are rigged. That is a hurdle that will hinder your progress.
Seriously bud - you will get there. Just keep plugging away. 33s dont beat KKs every time!! :D:D






Not sure what you are saying Jim. Are you saying I'm a hypocrite? Or are you saying I changed my mind?

I'll tell you the truth if you wanna hear it. I was skeptical at first - a little bit - when your set of AAA on the flop loses to runner runner straight - you have to think WTF is this going on here.
But after being in the same position COUNTLESS TIMES calling an overbet on the flop with my oesd - because - hell - I can rebuy if I lose here - and hitting my flush/straight - I know for certain poker sites are not rigged - we all play to win - and sometimes we make loose calls - because we have equity to do so.

Also - I'm not a math guy - I see a line to take - and I'm going to take it - regardless of if the MATHES say I should or should not.

Check out all of my other posts if you are into criticizing other people to see I have sucked out on players - and they have sucked out on me - often.

Its called POKER and its the game we all SHOULD love to play.



Yes you are hypocrite and nah I'm good on reading your posts. Don't think you will offer much in the way of insight .
 
theANMATOR

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Yes you are hypocrite and nah I'm good on reading your posts. Don't think you will offer much in the way of insight .

Thanks for adding absolutely ZERO constructive input to the conversation.

And name calling isn't very polite. Looks like your a real smart guy, hiding all your stats and info so nobody can see how much of a losing player you are. Smart.
Isn't it policy around here to provide your info, poker site screen names?

Next time your on ACR look me up. I'm very interested in taking all the money you have in your bankroll. Unless you just like to call names - and hide behind opt out options.
 
Pokerpoet2

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I apologize now because I am one of the Donks! talked about here. I will shove all-in when I am down to 10 to 20 BB in a tournament with practically any 2 cards, Why?
One of two reasons,
1st I might feel like I want out of the game and will shove just to lose and be finished with the game.
2nd I just ask myself "Do I feel lucky?" "Well do ya punk!" (Dirty Harry metaphor)
I have done this in live games as well as on-line, once in a Casino I called an all-in from my opponent, heads up with K/3 suited and he turned A/K, I paired my 3 and doubled up, on another heads up situation my opponent raised all-in with A/K and I called blind (without looking at my hand) with 6/2 and beat him pairing my 2.
Any 2 cards can win, and any 2 cards can lose when it comes to heads up Poker and if I am on the button and limp, the SB folds to the BB who then shoves all-in when the rest of the table has folded, then we are heads up and sometimes I will call regardless of what I am holding, if it was good enough to limp, it is sure to be good enough to call, It all boils down to "Do you feel lucky?
Variance is real, in that sometimes you win, and sometimes you lose, and that is why sometimes I trust to luck. The site is not rigged, I do not use a BOT, sometimes I am just lucky.

When the fun Stops, STOP!
 
theANMATOR

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I apologize now because I am one of the Donks! talked about here. I will shove all-in when I am down to 10 to 20 BB in a tournament with practically any 2 cards, Why?
One of two reasons,
1st I might feel like I want out of the game and will shove just to lose and be finished with the game.
2nd I just ask myself "Do I feel lucky?" "Well do ya punk!" (Dirty Harry metaphor)
I have done this in live games as well as on-line, once in a Casino I called an all-in from my opponent, heads up with K/3 suited and he turned A/K, I paired my 3 and doubled up, on another heads up situation my opponent raised all-in with A/K and I called blind (without looking at my hand) with 6/2 and beat him pairing my 2.
Any 2 cards can win, and any 2 cards can lose when it comes to heads up Poker and if I am on the button and limp, the SB folds to the BB who then shoves all-in when the rest of the table has folded, then we are heads up and sometimes I will call regardless of what I am holding, if it was good enough to limp, it is sure to be good enough to call, It all boils down to "Do you feel lucky?
Variance is real, in that sometimes you win, and sometimes you lose, and that is why sometimes I trust to luck. The site is not rigged, I do not use a BOT, sometimes I am just lucky.

When the fun Stops, STOP!

Actually suited Kings are a +EV shove when short. Not at 20bb deep, but it is still profitable at a certain stack depth - when facing only one opponent.
 
carlosnuno

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sorry but I do not understand this forum the question does not make sense greetings
 
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JimTheBadger

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Thanks for adding absolutely ZERO constructive input to the conversation.

And name calling isn't very polite. Looks like your a real smart guy, hiding all your stats and info so nobody can see how much of a losing player you are. Smart.
Isn't it policy around here to provide your info, poker site screen names?

Next time your on ACR look me up. I'm very interested in taking all the money you have in your bankroll. Unless you just like to call names - and hide behind opt out options.


I keep track of my stats using PT4 and don't seek stakes so never thought to show stats. I thought I had included my names but I play mostly GG and Stars under JimTheBadger but have been on ACR under same name. I prolly won't be on ACR until its easier to move funds back and forth as I paid to much in fees last time as I don't use crypto (I should prolly learn)

You're right I should be constructive. I think this thread and more so the cycle of thinking that led to it's creation is destructive to your game. I did read your threads and you seem like a smart dude so you know that small leaks can become bigger leaks.

Now I'm not saying this is a big deal but I think you should consider working on your mental game to help you through spots like this in the future where bad variance seems to happen all at once. I used Jared Tendlers book The Mental Game of poker. Its a great tool to help with all aspects of the game that I think is way more important than people realize.
 
Zapahlohotrona

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Everyone has their own vision, I know successful players whose streak has been going on for over 12 months. Is the "bad play" option not considered? in vain.
For your own benefit, this option should be the first to come to mind. Without a schedule, it is not clear.
 
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No I believe it is hand selection but there is a major component of l uck and chance
 
theANMATOR

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I keep track of my stats using PT4 and don't seek stakes so never thought to show stats. I thought I had included my names but I play mostly GG and Stars under JimTheBadger but have been on ACR under same name. I prolly won't be on ACR until its easier to move funds back and forth as I paid to much in fees last time as I don't use crypto (I should prolly learn)

You're right I should be constructive. I think this thread and more so the cycle of thinking that led to it's creation is destructive to your game. I did read your threads and you seem like a smart dude so you know that small leaks can become bigger leaks.

Now I'm not saying this is a big deal but I think you should consider working on your mental game to help you through spots like this in the future where bad variance seems to happen all at once. I used Jared Tendlers book The Mental Game of poker. Its a great tool to help with all aspects of the game that I think is way more important than people realize.

Yes moving funds via any method other than crypto is a pain in the butt.
Suggest you really consider crypto Jim, it's quite simple. I figured it out in just a couple hours and I had to purchase some obscure prepaid credit card just to get money on initially.
But it would be even easier for you. Just set up a wallet (I use coinbase) and transfer funds from where you already have them (poker stars) to any other site. And the fees are minuscule. There are several helpful youtubes that can help you out.

Thanks for the suggestion about Jareds book. I have it on my wishlist.

You ever watch the movie se7en? Morgan Freeman is scolding Brad Pitt for acting rash during a scene, he says - you need to learn to control your emotions. And Brad Pitt replies I feed off my emotions, and then later in another scene, Brad Pitt solves a problem, by spontaneously acting, which is him feeding off his emotions.

I have come a good distance from when I first created this post. Now - I giggle - or just mumble under my breath how a lot of times throughout our sessions variance hits us - at the most inopportune times. The mental game is one of the most important parts of the game and one we all have to continually work on, well us players that are using our own earnings to play the game.

I mention the movie because I love that line - I feed off my emotions. And it relates to poker. I enjoy seeing people have emotion at the poker table. Not spazz out when they loose or over celebrate when they win. But seeing the totally blank expressions from a lot of the high rollers - to me is - boring and makes the game quite dead. Even Ivey shows emotions - in his eyes. Hard to detect - but it is there.

I never want to become a player that is emotionally dead. If that is what it takes to play/win at high stakes - I'll just stick to mid stakes. I think a lot of those dudes take it too far.

But you are certainly on point regarding the rookie that created this thread. Now I'm a rookie that is in a lot better control over my emotions regarding most everything on the felt, however I'm never going to be the emotionless fellow at the table.
 
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JimTheBadger

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Yes moving funds via any method other than crypto is a pain in the butt.
Suggest you really consider crypto Jim, it's quite simple. I figured it out in just a couple hours and I had to purchase some obscure prepaid credit card just to get money on initially.
But it would be even easier for you. Just set up a wallet (I use coinbase) and transfer funds from where you already have them (poker stars) to any other site. And the fees are minuscule. There are several helpful youtubes that can help you out.

Thanks for the suggestion about Jareds book. I have it on my wishlist.

You ever watch the movie se7en? Morgan Freeman is scolding Brad Pitt for acting rash during a scene, he says - you need to learn to control your emotions. And Brad Pitt replies I feed off my emotions, and then later in another scene, Brad Pitt solves a problem, by spontaneously acting, which is him feeding off his emotions.

I have come a good distance from when I first created this post. Now - I giggle - or just mumble under my breath how a lot of times throughout our sessions variance hits us - at the most inopportune times. The mental game is one of the most important parts of the game and one we all have to continually work on, well us players that are using our own earnings to play the game.

I mention the movie because I love that line - I feed off my emotions. And it relates to poker. I enjoy seeing people have emotion at the poker table. Not spazz out when they loose or over celebrate when they win. But seeing the totally blank expressions from a lot of the high rollers - to me is - boring and makes the game quite dead. Even Ivey shows emotions - in his eyes. Hard to detect - but it is there.

I never want to become a player that is emotionally dead. If that is what it takes to play/win at high stakes - I'll just stick to mid stakes. I think a lot of those dudes take it too far.

But you are certainly on point regarding the rookie that created this thread. Now I'm a rookie that is in a lot better control over my emotions regarding most everything on the felt, however I'm never going to be the emotionless fellow at the table.

I'm the opposite. I feel like emotions take away from my game so I strive to be as logical as I can be aka one of those mindless robots. I prefer watching the players you mentioned that wear it on the sleeve but I know for me I can't reach the farthest levels of my own game if I'm that way.

I use to be a guy who cheered and got emotional but it was pointed out to me that its just waisted energy and takes away from the rational balanced mind that I want when playing cards.

Everyone plays for different reasons and while I am not kidding myself about where I'm at (Micro/low stakes MTT grinder) I want to go as far as my game will take me. For me that means cutting out emotions before my wife's head ends up in a box.
 
theANMATOR

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I'm the opposite. I feel like emotions take away from my game so I strive to be as logical as I can be aka one of those mindless robots. I prefer watching the players you mentioned that wear it on the sleeve but I know for me I can't reach the farthest levels of my own game if I'm that way.

I use to be a guy who cheered and got emotional but it was pointed out to me that its just waisted energy and takes away from the rational balanced mind that I want when playing cards.

Everyone plays for different reasons and while I am not kidding myself about where I'm at (Micro/low stakes MTT grinder) I want to go as far as my game will take me. For me that means cutting out emotions before my wife's head ends up in a box.

Of course you and I are both in agreement with keeping our emotions out of the decision making process, for sure.
However I'm talking about winning pots, winning events, losing hands and receiving the common bad beat/cooler - and also delivering them.
I concur we do need to keep our emotions in check, when making decisions, and I don't think it is such a difficult hurdle to reset our emotions after a high or low - when leading into the next decision point.

I know people spend lots of time/effort/and capital on being able to reset their emotions to make logical decisions for the next hand. This isn't something I've ever had a problems with.
 
AKQ

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ITS CUZ YOU SUCK!!!!!
HEHEHEH hiya ANMATOR
learning to avoid the variance spots is an art
not aiming for value...helps alot

even when i get sucked out on.
I blame myself not the variance
 
AKQ

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Variance is a mathematical phenomenon.

Why would it be different live vs. online?

What am I not understanding?
Computers don't make errors
they do them on purpose
fc614eebc8d768eeecb431c80cbb4649.png
 
theANMATOR

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ITS CUZ YOU SUCK!!!!!
HEHEHEH hiya ANMATOR
learning to avoid the variance spots is an art
not aiming for value...helps alot

even when i get sucked out on.
I blame myself not the variance
I was WONDERIN when you'd be around to straighten our asses out!! LOL

Yeah man - ol boy that initially made this thread hit a bad day. And everyone and their mother joined in on the conversation and I didn't even see it until like a year later.
It's amazing how one solid year of playing - brings the REAL GAME into perspective.
 
Igor Popadyk

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maybe just poker is not your game? can't everyone win at poker, but good luck, maybe this is exactly what you need to hear
 
micalupagoo

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Pretty simple question.

Is it REALLY variance when every bust out hand of the day (16 tournaments) was a result of getting it in good - either preflop - or on the flop - and getting beat by the river EVERY SINGLE TIME!!! :confused::mad::mad::mad:

If so I'm in for some REALLY GREAT RESULTS in the future - hopefully it is ALL at once - like the crap "variance" has been all piled up for over one entire month now. Just wow!

It seems quite impossible to have EVERY bustout hand end up as a suckout. I know right!

3 of 30 flips for stacks today went in the other players favor when I was ahead either pre or on the flop.
I don't really see how this can balance out over time - I don't suck out on opponents unless I'm short stacked and getting it in at the most +EV time for me. I'm not the big stack shoving K/7 off getting called by 3 players and the runout giving K/7 o trips or better. I see this over and over and over and over just what the crap is all this terrible play - that gets rewarded time and time again. Why play premium hands - when A/3 o is going to crush your KKs every single time - when it matters most.
Yes - if I'm a big stack and someone shoves for 3bb and I have 30+bb I'm going to call with any 2. That isn't a suckout. I'm talking about 2 big stacks battling - and donk hits his trips or better on the river besting the best hand that was betting for value on the flop/turn and on the river or cracks AA with 33. Variance can kiss my @@@ZZZ. :eek::eek:

So damn!@!!!!!! aggravating to grind a big stack up all day - making optimal plays and
chipping, up making it into the money and 1-3 hands totally wrecks all the hard work you have done - by some spewy player getting it in bad - as always - and making the winning hand by the river - as always.
If I won the hands that didn't get suckout by the river - I'd be playing mid stakes by now and my graph would look like a friggin malformed RIGHT ANGLE hockey stick!
People who shove preflop crap 22-44, A rag, or Kx off, or any 2 suited should have to sit out for 2 orbits as a penalty. :eek:

Tilty complainy angry rant over -

Thanks CC - you are my only outlet! :)

disclaimer: none of these happened in CC events. Interestingly after the first 30-45 minutes into CC freerolls, after 'those' types of players are gone, there are more competent players, who are competitive and play the game well. Really have to be on my A game when playing in CC events - and that is a great feeling - that competitiveness - better players than 85% of ALL MICRO EVENTS, where (shaking head as I write this) just terrible players are donking all over the game - and getting rewarded. Frustrating! :eek:


This is WHY people say they can win - when they play higher stakes. And to those who say if you can't beat micros - you will never be able to compete higher - are full of bunk. Watch ANY pros play at the micro level - they get DESTROYED. Thats why they get in and start playing high buyin micros - or mid stakes. They can't hang at the micros LOL.

This is also why something like 30%+ think these online sites are rigged. I don't - but I can see why other people believe this.

OK really - done now.

As I type this I watch some donk take all my chips when he shoves on the flop I call with A/K with top pair top kicker, and guy turns and rivers JJ to beat me with J/T. Yes - shoves a gutshot and makes trips on turn/river. Every time.

I don't get it.
Yes, it’s just variance, and I’m also betting you forget hands where your AQ>AK or 88>JJ
I’m so bummed when it seems every sure win loses to the long shot, but it also works in reverse when you shove weak and runner runner the win.
Consistent good play will always pay in the long run👍
 
theANMATOR

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maybe just poker is not your game? can't everyone win at poker, but good luck, maybe this is exactly what you need to hear
Not sorry to say - I am a winning player Igor - check my stats if you want. This is not a good message to deliver to anyone - anyway - we want as many losing players in the game as we can get.

I see your up an WHOLE twenty one dollars on wpn. Keep it up buddy - you'll hit that magical 3 figure mark eventually. Keep pluggin away. Thanks for the input.

Just git gud, like this guy
View attachment 291277
Me tryin but every time I opens K/7 sooted from early position the flop never magically happens like that guud player. :)
Sick catch - at least he only collected 10 bigs though. :)
 
B

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Not sorry to say - I am a winning player Igor - check my stats if you want. This is not a good message to deliver to anyone - anyway - we want as many losing players in the game as we can get.

I see your up an WHOLE twenty one dollars on wpn. Keep it up buddy - you'll hit that magical 3 figure mark eventually. Keep pluggin away. Thanks for the input.


Me tryin but every time I opens K/7 sooted from early position the flop never magically happens like that guud player. :)
Sick catch - at least he only collected 10 bigs though. :)


This is exactly the guy who would never win unless he's sponsored by a site or some other scam we don't know about. Bet on Lies puts ever paired WTSD at 50 percent, imo. It's just good business, imo

"If more players worked on there postflop play and played hands out, QQs would not get sucked out on so often - because it'd be obvious the straight came in, the flush hit on the turn, the double paired board is beating my starting pocket pair. That would reduce variance for almost everybody. Fat chance of that happening though - preflop shove - guess what I have - is part of the game - that makes luck such a strong contributing factor."


this is exactly what the scam sites depend on. No duh, when u flop a set with JJ, some don't is going to end up with a four card flush. That's what the scam is, force entry. It's why the USA won't legalize the whole thing, because they know poker sites use an #algoriggem imo

"I know people spend lots of time/effort/and capital on being able to reset their emotions to make logical decisions for the next hand. This isn't something I've ever had a problems with."


most likely due to being a donk. Or involved on the business side of the equation. If sites would list there monthly WTSD stats (bet) online, we would not need this conversation ie.
22 vs KK 100 times 22 had 51 wins. KK hand 49 wins.
Then we would know the truth

Variance is a mathematical phenomenon.

Why would it be different live vs. online?

What am I not understanding?

When the site knows you're tendencies, they can't get a loan unless they prove they can exploit that information for profit. imo, where I play, let's call it Beat On Lines, they give me two pairs and straights and trips in order to reward fish who go all in with 65 on a KJ3 board.
 
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theANMATOR

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"If more players worked on there postflop play and played hands out, QQs would not get sucked out on so often - because it'd be obvious the straight came in, the flush hit on the turn, the double paired board is beating my starting pocket pair. That would reduce variance for almost everybody. Fat chance of that happening though - preflop shove - guess what I have - is part of the game - that makes luck such a strong contributing factor."

I totally agree with you on playing hands out. It seems - people think I got TT+ I can never win unless I jam and luck out on the river. Preflop shoving any amount more than 30 bb - should be KK+ - maybe A/K. But how often do you and I see players shoving pre 150bb with pockets below 88s. I see it at least 10 times a day when I play an entire day of poker.


This is exactly the guy who would never win unless he's sponsored by a site or some other scam we don't know about. Bet on Lies puts ever paired WTSD at 50 percent, imo. It's just good business, imo
I don't have any idea if you are talking about me - or the members I was responding to.
I am certainly not sponsored by anyone - other than my day job. LOL but if any 'site' wants to give me a sponsor - heck yeah - where do I sign and how much am I getting! :)

What is WTSD bakang? Serious question.

most likely due to being a donk. Or involved on the business side of the equation. If sites would list there monthly WTSD stats (bet) online, we would not need this conversation ie.
22 vs KK 100 times 22 had 51 wins. KK hand 49 wins.
Then we would know the truth
You must be drunk - or just trying to make yourself feel better about getting your ass kicked recently.


No worries - my donkey friend - I have no connection with bet on line or any other site.
I actually only play on BoL once a week. I kind of dislike that site. I'm always dealt Q/3 off, J/2 off and T/4 off for continuous hours at a time. It's really a poor rng if you ask me. I get no cards to play - and when I finally pick up QQ+ someone ALWAYS has AA or gets a flopped flush. Not really very fun, clicking the fold button for an hour only to get a bad beat.
On the other hand - the alt site for the Chico network - SportsBet I do a little better, but it really is the same site. Compared to any other site - this network has always dealt me a cold deck. I don't run bad on their - I don't run at all, I fold for an hour and then catch a hand and either get a cooler or sucked out.
So I prefer ACR - much better tourneys, much better guarantees - and the fishes are all around. Same as BoL - huge fish pool - but when you can never catch a hand to take advantage of them - it gets very boring.

See ya round - my donk!
 
theANMATOR

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Variance is a mathematical phenomenon.

Why would it be different live vs. online?

What am I not understanding?

When the site knows you're tendencies, they can't get a loan unless they prove they can exploit that information for profit. imo, where I play, let's call it Beat On Lines, they give me two pairs and straights and trips in order to reward fish who go all in with 65 on a KJ3 board.

Because you are seeing no less than 10x the number of hands per hour. 10x the number of hands equals - I'm not a math guy - but I'm gonna say - hmmm - about 10x the number of bad beats/coolers/suckouts. It's just math.
As for me - I'm playing 6+ tables at the same time - so I'm seeing - approximately 50x more hands per hour - than I would playing live.


Dude - isn't there a conspiracy theory thread you'd be better suited in?

Were talking about real poker and the REAL variance of poker, both short and long term.

Were not talking about make believe pink unicorn bunnies, fairy dusk, and UFO lizard men junk.

Why are you even commenting here - if you don't have anything knowledgeable to add to the conversation?
 
YenRodriguez

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There was a time when I fell into a negative streak!
and it's really overwhelming, but nothing. Go ahead, the river will come in your favor.
Just today I played a knockout and took off. an elimination on the river. being the best hand.
 
E

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I can totally understand your mindset my friend. Don't keep a count of bad beats and suck outs. Asking if it's variance won't help. Rather it makes sense to focus on our play and hope all +EV decisions make money in long run.

I lost my 100BB stack with AQs to Q8o, Allin preflop. The player was gambling every other hand and I assumed AQs is good to get it in. Unfortunately it wasn't as there was a 8 on the flop.

I think good players suck out less on others as they seldom get it in when behind.

Also we all have trust issues with RNG at some point while playing poker.
 
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