I
Ivan Zaruba
Rock Star
Silver Level
Maybe it was a hasty decision to register for a new tournament.Around 2 months and then I got lucky winning one of the ACR freerolls for $22. I then went on to reg a tournament and lost.
I see some new forum members coming in and becoming winners. Daily, monthly, or social media tournaments don't matter. So I was interested. How long did it take you to win your first Cardschat tournament?:icon_joke
Okay. Note that many successful players have never won. They admitted it in this thread. This calls into question your formula doesn't it?You can apply rough, but more advanced calculations...
We will assume that all participants have approximately equal probability of getting to the 3 pre-final tables: P1 = 27/250.
At these pre-final tables, the level of play of opponents will always be much higher. So, depending on what kind of player you think you are (mediocre, average or good), the probability of taking the first place will be different. Let's say for a mediocre P2 = 1/90, for an average P2 = 1/27, for a good P2 = 1/15.
P3 = (1-P1) + P1*(1-P2) = from 0.9928 to 0.9988
Then the probabilities to take first place at least once a year or at least once a month will be as follows:
P (year) = 1- (P3)^260 = from 27% (for a mediocre player) to 85% (for a good player).
P (month) = 1- (P3)^20 = from 2.4% (for a mediocre player) to 13.5% (for a good player).
I haven't won yet, but last Friday playing silver cardchart for the first time, I finished 15th. It was a 100 pokerstars freeroll, there were about 400 players
If a player constantly enters the prize area but does not reach the final table, they may also be more successful. Let's say a player who often gets into the top 30 or top 20 participants can earn the same amount of money or more than a player who once got to the final table, but because of the desire for risk, often gets eliminated at the beginning and middle of other tournaments. For example, today you got the first place, but during the week you took 200-100 places. Your middle seat will be in the middle. And there are players who are constantly in the top 30 players. Their average position will be higher than yours. Also, the game of bingo lottery starts when there are 20-30 players left. The level of all becomes equal. You should be lucky for two hours when everyone is just putting all in and your chances are about the same.I also decided to make a rough calculation of the probability of getting into the TOP4 at least once a month. The first 4 winners receive about 55% of the prize pool. If will be deal (equal), then each of them will receive almost as if he took the 2nd place.
The formulas will be the same as from the last post, but the probability of P2 will be 4 times higher.
Then, the probability of getting into TOP4 at least once a month with participation in 20 CC freerolls on PS with 250 participants will be:
9% for a mediocre player.
28% for the average player.
44% for a good player.