I'm wondering out loud to all of you....how much of an edge do you have to have vs. the satellite field to compensate for the risk of not winning and the extra rake and tip?
Let's assume you KNOW you are going to play a $1,500 bracelet event. You flew down for it, you're gonna play. But you'd LIKE to try to satellite in.
you could enter the $165 STT to win your seat, but only 1 player is paid out of 10. If you are average with the field, you should win 1 out of 10 times. so you would pay $1,650 plus a tip ($50?) to "win" that seat.
obviously, that would be a bad idea unless you just REALLY want to play the satellites for some fun, or to kill time, or loosen your nerves before the big event or whatever....then you essentially pay a $150+$50 fee to have the thrill of winning your seat...while taking at least some small risk that you might go on a terrible run and not win your seat.
But let's say you are twice as good as the average satellite player, meaning you should win 2 out of 10 or reduce down to 1 out of 5. Now you've paid $825 plus tip ($50?) to win your seat...but still taken some risk. That would probably be a reasonable deal.
But, how many among us can honestly say we're twice as good as the field? most of us will fall somewhere in between average and twice as good....then you account for variance and I'd venture a guess that if you can't afford the event, you probably can't afford the satellites either (because of rake and tip) unless you are a STT expert, or significantly better than the field.