Am I supposed to drop free money because of stupid variance?

[jaymfc]

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424SeDWJ9

Villain is a passive rock. I know, when coming from the middle of a table, he won't has anything from this kind of flop. I have the read, bluffcatcher and short stack on top of that.

And please don't tell me about "distance will return everything". If someone believe at this bullshit then he/she could get on a final table only by accident.

Here's the hand just from yesterday, bassicly the same situation: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424ScY3bz

hi hi!!!! :ciao:
no sure - what is your question?
maybe no be so aggressive & vulgar - chill out?

Maybe try folding crappy hands like 5-2 and 10-2? :deal:

A low pair, on a low board, is USUALLY going to lose. Why on Earth would you call even a min raise, with 210? Complaining about it only makes it worse....

100% agree
When you play crappy hands crappy things happen.

No reason to defend your BB with that hand regardless of a tell you might have. Flop play is even worse as most time were getting called by better hands there. Pick a better spot if you ever wanna get out of the freerolls.

That was unnecessary, since CCreplayer also shows the odds.
View attachment 290931
Upload your screenshot in .jpg format, then site will not convert it into "trash".

I'm having here similar EV, when calling preflop open push with AK from a GTO player with a short stack. Not that bad of a call.
Actually, that's basically the answer to my topic. Thx for pushing me in that direction.

In conclusion, you guys should be less focused on a hand appearance itself and more on equity it is created in particular situation.

GL​

it's fairly obvious you don't want advice
it's the best 5 out of 7 period good luck

 

[Joe]

That was unnecessary, since CCreplayer also shows the odds.
View attachment 290931
Upload your screenshot in .jpg format, then site will not convert it into "trash".

I'm having here similar EV, when calling preflop open push with AK from a GTO player with a short stack. Not that bad of a call.
Actually, that's basically the answer to my topic. Thx for pushing me in that direction.

In conclusion, you guys should be less focused on a hand appearance itself and more on equity it is created in particular situation.

GL​

Thanks for the tip about using .jpg for screenshots, I'll give that a try!

To be perfectly honest it's not easy to interpret what you are trying to say or ask.

I have no idea what is the subject of your thread. :dontknow:

What are you trying to show or ask? What's the point here?

To try and explain to us all how we're focusing on the wrong things in poker?

 

[fundiver199]

I thought you'd just believe me that's I have a read, since it was correct and we move on to the topic.

Just because someone gets to showdown with a specific hand does not mean, that hand or that kind of hand is his entire range. It only means, he had it this one time. But as others have said, you are clearly not here to learn and improve, so good luck with your game

 

[DaaBee]

Freeroll is a lottery

Play the cards you have nothing else........
Have fun and expect to loose a lot of AA/KK hands, GL at the tables.

 

[Banjois]

Stop thinking about the math, and just fold 25 or 210, if you're raised. You did a bit good, but quickly lost, just now. They are bad hands.

 

[ph_il]

Hand 1: fold pree, move on. No reason to go further than that, especially with sb coming along. 102o vs 2 players is never going to hold up well enough to be profitable long term. Even if sb folded, it's an easy fold. You are getting preflop odds to call with atc here, but you still want to play hands that have good post flop potential. 102s could be a call with the flush potental, but I'd probably still fold. If you had a hand like 610s with some added straight potential, then that would be more playable. You also only had ~17.5 bbs behind going against a stack that could bust you. You really don't want to play bad hands preflop with a short stack. There is no reason to so.

Post flop, check. No reason to lead out against 2 players here. You can check and control the pot, plus your hand is still very venerable at this point. You have 2 pair, but you lose to better to pairs and trips on this board. It's a decent hand to get to showdown with, but you shouldn't be pushing the action here.

Hand 2: unfortunate outcome.

Also, getting long term results only applies if you're making more +ev decision. If you're making more -ev decisions, then you'll lose in the long term.

 

[killing_random]

Thanks for the tip about using .jpg for screenshots, I'll give that a try!

To be perfectly honest it's not easy to interpret what you are trying to say or ask.

I have no idea what is the subject of your thread. :dontknow:

What are you trying to show or ask? What's the point here?

To try and explain to us all how we're focusing on the wrong things in poker?

Ok, more correct way to name this thread would be "Is bluffcatching even worth itself?". "Am I supposed to drop free money because of stupid variance?" is the thought that appears in my mind when I fail with successful bluffcatch.
These hands are just examples, I'm not particullary intrested in them.
What bothers me - what's the point of a bluffcatching if even with 99% correct reads ratio your win to lose ratio would be 50/50 with variance like that. Apperently 6 outs with two streets ahead is too much to play aggainst. 3 is also too much and I can't reduce it beyond that https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/824SknoKI
For now I'm not sure where to put my hands reading skill and just putting pressure.
The true value of hand reading lies in bluffcatching with... bluffcatchers (worst hands on board). So, I not interested in advices like "bluffcatche them with the nuts","bluffcatche them with premium range". Maybe "play by reads on later streets and why", "bluffcatching is zero EV, because..." Some of that kind.

 

[rj_montana]

If you already know all the answers then why bother asking

 

[fundiver199]

Ok, more correct way to name this thread would be "Is bluffcatching even worth itself?".

The guy with AA was almost certainly not bluffing. He thought, he had the best hand, and because the board got very wet with two flushdraws and a bunch of straightdraws as well, he panicked and did not want to see a river. This was an overplay, but he was not expecting any hand better than AA to fold.

As for why the guy with AQ jammed, I honestly dont know. Maybe he thought, you were leading with air, and that he was actually ahead with his AQ high, or maybe he was on some sort of tilt. People sometimes do weird things on paired boards, because they go into this "LOL I think, my opponents missed" kind of mode.

What bothers me - what's the point of a bluffcatching if even with 99% correct reads ratio your win to lose ratio would be 50/50 with variance like that.

You dont have "99% correct reads". Arrogant ideas like that are the direct way to massive losses in poker, so you need to get that out of your head. Second you have only just begun playing poker at least under this username. According to sharkscope you have played 64 tournaments so far on pokerstars, which is absolutely nothing. You need to get to 500 or 1.000, before variance even begin to level itself out somewhat.

So you have a massive amount of work ahead of you, if you want to become a winning poker player and built up a track record. In the past weekend you played 5 1,5$ SnGs and a freeroll. That should probably have been more like 50 1,5$ SnGs and a freeroll, if you are serious about this. Or at least 20-30. With the lack of volume, you are putting in, it will take forever to build up a bankroll or even prove, you can beat the game.

As a final remark you have picked the format, which has the worst rake on PokerStars for microstakes games, the 6-18 man SnGs. Of the 1,5$ buyin PokerStars keep a whopping 21c, which is absolutely brutul. Even with soft competition this is going to be difficult to overcome, so if you want to stick to this format, you need to get to at least the 3,5$ versions as soon as possible. Or you can do, what I did, which was to play the 1$ 45 mans instead. These have a much more reasonable rake, and therefore they are easier to beat.

 

[infonazar]

Given what I've seen, I highly recommend you take our free course. I am sure that our course will save your nerves, money, and time.
https://www.cardschat.com/become-a-winning-poker-player/

 

[fundiver199]

Apperently 6 outs with two streets ahead is too much to play aggainst. 3 is also too much and I can't reduce it beyond that https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/824SknoKI

Preflop
Opening A7o from CO is fine, but when facing the 3-bet you should fold. Against this just over 3X sizing and 150BB deep you can defend with any pocket pair, any suited ace, any decent broadway and any suited connectors. But ragged offsuit aces like A7o should still go in the muck, because they play absolutely terrible against his range.

Flop
You flopped second pair, and this is a standard and easy call. Instead you move all-in for a massive overbet, and this is a terrible play. If he is any sort of reasonable player, he is going to snap fold any hand worse than yours and call with most hands better than yours. Granted you might get some slightly better hands like 88-TT or even JX to fold, but you are risking your entire stack to pick up a very small pot. Also your hand has showdown value, so there is no need to turn it into a bluff. You can just call here and then look to make some decisions on later streets.

Results
I have no idea, why he called with AK high, and probably you see this as justification, you made a good play. But just because someone might occationally make a really bad call in a freeroll, does not mean, you can pile in 150BB with second pair in a 3-bet pot and expect this to be a long term profitable move. Try doing this in even the 2,2$ "big" or "deep", and you will watch your bankroll pour down the drain at an alarming pace.

So stop focusing on the distribution of good and bad runouts and start focusing on your decision making instead. In two of the three hands, you shared, you made some pretty big mistakes. If you are not up after those 64 tournaments on PokerStars, its not only, because you have been unlucky. That might or might not be the case over such a small sample. But regardless of the short term dispersion you have a long way to go in improving your own game, if you want to become a winner.

 

[WickedFRoST]

You are defending your BB too wide, hence escalating variance. So I do not really understand the complaint.

There is nothing wrong in defending the BB wide, especially if you are confident in your post flop game, but that comes with a price - the more hands you play, more variance you encounter.

But if you are mentally not ready to withstand such situations on a constant basis, just fold these crappy hands preflop.

 

[mina271]

i have looked at it several times and i'm sorry but i still don't understand how you want to defend 25 on the flop the sb has already raised why call there? Just because you hit the 2? I think you should have folded your hand there too. If you're excited to have lost yourself with hands like that, then you really shouldn't play poker. I had AA on the flop came 9A8 so I was clear in front turn came 6 and yes the river came then 7 was clear my opponent had 5x and took his street. I call it bad luck but I understand when you see this more often that you ask yourself whether this is really just bad luck or something else. But when it comes to freerols then completely different conditions count and you have to expect, especially at the beginning of the tournament, that you will meet people who, for example, see 25 as valuable cards and then defend them and also win against AA on the river, even if It was different in this case than it happened often enough.

 

[fundiver199]

i have looked at it several times and i'm sorry but i still don't understand how you want to defend 25 on the flop the sb has already raised why call there?

In that particular hand there was no preflop raise. SB completed, and then Hero knocked his option and took a free flop.

 

[mina271]

In that particular hand there was no preflop raise. SB completed, and then Hero knocked his option and took a free flop.

maybe i am not looking right but i did not said preflop but on the flop he made a small raise and with Q on the flop and he has only 25 and hitting the 2 on flop it makes for me no sence to call there. preflop it was everything right he got to see the flop for free but after the flop i think it went wrong

 

[fundiver199]

maybe i am not looking right but i did not said preflop but on the flop he made a small raise and with Q on the flop and he has only 25 and hitting the 2 on flop it makes for me no sence to call there. preflop it was everything right he got to see the flop for free but after the flop i think it went wrong

Thats a standard call. Its blind vs. blind, and any hand, that made a pair, is ahead of the other players range. This time SB had aces, but he will also have a ton of absolutely nothing in his range. Often those hands will give up on the turn, and then we can get to showdown and win a small pot with our bottom pair.

 

[killing_random]

If you already know all the answers then why bother asking

Where the answers!? I was just guessing, did I say something actually relevant about bluffcatching?

 

[killing_random]

Preflop
Opening A7o from CO is fine, but when facing the 3-bet you should fold. Against this just over 3X sizing and 150BB deep you can defend with any pocket pair, any suited ace, any decent broadway and any suited connectors. But ragged offsuit aces like A7o should still go in the muck, because they play absolutely terrible against his range.

Flop
You flopped second pair, and this is a standard and easy call. Instead you move all-in for a massive overbet, and this is a terrible play. If he is any sort of reasonable player, he is going to snap fold any hand worse than yours and call with most hands better than yours. Granted you might get some slightly better hands like 88-TT or even JX to fold, but you are risking your entire stack to pick up a very small pot. Also your hand has showdown value, so there is no need to turn it into a bluff. You can just call here and then look to make some decisions on later streets.

Results
I have no idea, why he called with AK high, and probably you see this as justification, you made a good play. But just because someone might occationally make a really bad call in a freeroll, does not mean, you can pile in 150BB with second pair in a 3-bet pot and expect this to be a long term profitable move. Try doing this in even the 2,2$ "big" or "deep", and you will watch your bankroll pour down the drain at an alarming pace.

So stop focusing on the distribution of good and bad runouts and start focusing on your decision making instead. In two of the three hands, you shared, you made some pretty big mistakes. If you are not up after those 64 tournaments on PokerStars, its not only, because you have been unlucky. That might or might not be the case over such a small sample. But regardless of the short term dispersion you have a long way to go in improving your own game, if you want to become a winner.

In freerolls I'm free to test sort of things I wouldn't want to experience in real game.
I jammed on the flop, because I didn't want to see Q&K streets (exactly whats happened) which would spoil my 85% win odds against few hands I expect from him. Being forced to fold when you had such potential on the flop would be a huge waste of EV.

And what your vision of successful tournament play?
Make no mistakes is sure good way to safe your stack but you won't make it to the final table, consistently, like that. I said "consistently" because always playing by your hand makes you highly dependent from variance aka deck of cards, which is the opposite of consistency.
To force my way into a final table I want to create an opportunity myself in addition to what variance can give. And when someone playing premium but highly predictible hand, I see that as the opportunity. Come with him on low to medium flop and I'm good to make pressure & profit, because a missed prem hand isn't something that easy to fold. On broadway flop - fold. About overpairs - usually I can tell when opp (if he is not a maniac) want me to fold and when wants my chips. So on that I rely on my guts.
Yes, that is still a lots of drawbacks in that strategy, like the turn-river vulnerability. And I can see that now more clearly thx to all that had been said above here.
That's why I create this thread. It is still the solid flop strategy to abandon, and I'm looking for some mends. And guys said I'm here just to complain, like what the hell you're talking about...

 

[fundiver199]

In freerolls I'm free to test sort of things I wouldn't want to experience in real game.

Sure but when you share a freeroll hand and either ask questions or complain about bad luck, I am going to analyse it the same way, I would any other hand. Maybe I will assume, your opponents are somewhat more loose on average, but my main focus will be on playing the hand in a way, which also work against somewhat reasonable opponents.

I jammed on the flop, because I didn't want to see Q&K streets (exactly whats happened)

This is the reason, why we should not defend A7o to a 3-bet. If we hit an A, we have kicker issues, and if we hit a 7, when we get to the river, that is often going to be third or fourth pair. So in both cases we often end up either paying off a better hand or getting bluffed out of the pot. We are only really happy, if we smash the board with A7 or 77, and that is not going to happen often enough to make it a long term profitable call.

And what your vision of successful tournament play

A positive ROI of maybe 20-30% for micro and low stakes MTTs. Which is just about, what I am getting. For SnGs, which I have played a lot on PokerStars, I am happy with a 5-10% ROI, which I am struggling a bit to get.

 

[killing_random]

What your vision of successful tournament play?

A positive ROI of maybe 20-30% for micro and low stakes MTTs. Which is just about, what I am getting. For SnGs, which I have played a lot on PokerStars, I am happy with a 5-10% ROI, which I am struggling a bit to get.

You're basically telling there in a fancy way that for successful tournament play you should winning more then losing :icon_thum

That won't really tells anything.

I mean what you're looking for at the tables as "success"?
Avoid mistakes (got it) and... is that all or else?

 

[akgross]

You should always count on your opponent going to the last card and for the entire stack. In this case, I choose the amount of the stake that I am not afraid to lose. Don't risk the entire amount with two small pairs.

 

[ph_il]

You're basically telling there in a fancy way that for successful tournament play you should winning more then losing :icon_thum

That won't really tells anything.

I mean what you're looking for at the tables as "success"?
Avoid mistakes (got it) and... is that all or else?

Poker isn't about individual games and individual decisions, unless you plan on only playing 1 game of poker.

It's how your decision affects your results long term. If you constantly find yourself in situations where you make +ev decisions and/or force your opponent to make -ev decisions more often than not, you'll do well in the long term. That's not to say you will never run into bad variance, but that's going to happen to every one but bad and good players. So, there is nothing special about you or anyone else getting hit with some bad luck.

The only difference is the good players know that, even with bad variance hitting, putting yourself in +ev situations will always pay off in the end. Avoiding bad spots as best as possible is just as important, as is not putting yourself in bad situations in the first place. Of course, it's impossible to be on point every single hand of every single mtt. Even pro players make mistakes sometimes, but they're still the players that are making more +ev decisions and less -ev decisions overall.

Also, 'winning more than losing' doesn't mean winning more hands than you lose or winning/cashing more mtts you buy into than you bust. It's also about your total profit compared to total buy-ins. MTTs have a ton of variance and no one, not even top pros are every cashing more mtts than they bust out of. But it doesn't matter if you bust out of 49 * $1 buy-in mtts if you win the 50th $1 mtt for $200. At the same it doesn't matter if you cash in 30/50 mtts and break even or barely have a profit to show for it. In the latter, you're absolutely 'winning more than losing' but are your really?

 

[fundiver199]

I mean what you're looking for at the tables as "success"?
Avoid mistakes (got it) and... is that all or else?

Obviously we want to avoid making obvious mistakes or blunders. For me playing well also include making good adjustments to specific opponents, if I have a solid read. I am a HUD-user, and if someone has only been raising preflop with 5% of hands (AKA "nit" or "passive fish") over a large sample, then I am going to react very different, if that player comes in for a raise, than if they have been raising 45% of hands (AKA "maniac").

If you are not using a HUD, then just pay attention to, who on the table is very active, and who is not. Also pay attention to, if someone take non standard lines like limping, weird bet sizes, donk betting in bad situations and so on and so forth. These are all signs of a bad poker player, so you want to play as many hands as possible against that person.

It sounds to me like, you have a desire "to make things happen", and for me that is generally not the best way to think about the game. Sure its good to find some spots to bluff and take away pots, that dont belong to you. But they need to be profitable spots. If you just blindly bet the river, because you want to win the hand, that is most likely not going to be profitable.

And if "making things happen" involve stacking off on the flop with botton or middle pair, as you did in 2 of the 3 hands, then this is not going to bring you to the final table more often, because in general these plays have a negative expected value or EV. This is just not good poker, especially not the hand, where you piled in 150BB with A7. The stack-off with T2 is not quite as bad, because stacks were relatively short, but its still a negative EV play.

 

[Banjois]

You can play everything mathematically, with a HUD, and whatnot. It took you well into the money on the $300 game yesterday. I'm not trying to be funny, but take note of how quickly you slipped, at the end. There's a certain amount of savoir faire needed when you're up against proper players

 

[killing_random]

You can play everything mathematically, with a HUD, and whatnot. It took you well into the money on the $300 game yesterday. I'm not trying to be funny, but take note of how quickly you slipped, at the end. There's a certain amount of savoir faire needed when you're up against proper players

Let's not talk about it in MTT's ITM. When effective stack becomes that small all you can do is hope for cards to come by it's own. Any simple action like raise is already all-in territory, you're simply have no room for an intelligent play. Game starting play itself and players just observe. This is what I hate about MTT.