Am I supposed to drop free money because of stupid variance?

killing_random

killing_random

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https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424SeDWJ9

Villain is a passive rock. I know, when coming from the middle of a table, he won't has anything from this kind of flop. I have the read, bluffcatcher and short stack on top of that.

And please don't tell me about "distance will return everything". If someone believe at this bullshit then he/she could get on a final table only by accident.

Here's the hand just from yesterday, bassicly the same situation: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424ScY3bz
 
Alekxandrovi3

Alekxandrovi3

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He could have a set or a made hand at the start of the hand with which he raised.
 
Banjois

Banjois

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A low pair, on a low board, is USUALLY going to lose. Why on Earth would you call even a min raise, with 210? Complaining about it only makes it worse....
 
killing_random

killing_random

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Maybe try folding crappy hands like 5-2 and 10-2? :deal:
Anyone could brainessly push or auto-call with premium hands. I'm here trying to find ways to exploit such leaks (are you guys at least agree that it's leak?) If you can tell me anything less obvious about the topic, then go ahead.
A low pair, on a low board, is USUALLY going to lose. Why on Earth would you call even a min raise, with 210? Complaining about it only makes it worse....
Why? I already described it at the beginning (message #1), right under the link to the first replay, first & second sentence. You can read it.
:deal:​
 
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recerveau

recerveau

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https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424SeDWJ9

Villain is a passive rock. I know, when coming from the middle of a table, he won't has anything from this kind of flop. I have the read, bluffcatcher and short stack on top of that.

And please don't tell me about "distance will return everything". If someone believe at this bullshit then he/she could get on a final table only by accident.

Here's the hand just from yesterday, bassicly the same situation: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424ScY3bz
Friend, these situations are very boring. They are quite possible to happen. Although I don't really trust poker software.
 
S

Scroooob

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https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424SeDWJ9

Villain is a passive rock. I know, when coming from the middle of a table, he won't has anything from this kind of flop. I have the read, bluffcatcher and short stack on top of that.

And please don't tell me about "distance will return everything". If someone believe at this bullshit then he/she could get on a final table only by accident.

Here's the hand just from yesterday, bassicly the same situation: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424ScY3bz


I don't understand a word of this post
 
J

JimTheBadger

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No reason to defend your BB with that hand regardless of a tell you might have. Flop play is even worse as most time were getting called by better hands there. Pick a better spot if you ever wanna get out of the freerolls.
 
F

fundiver199

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Hand 1 - T2o

Preflop
We are only facing a min-raise, but there is no ante, and SB have already called. In that situation I am not defending as wide as T2o. Its not a huge mistake though. You are after all getting 5:1, and you have position on one opponent, so you should defend kind of wide here. Maybe just not quite as wide as T2o.

Flop
I dont totally hate leading out here and kind of turning your hand into a bluff, since the preflop raiser will have missed this board a lot, and its kind of difficult to get the lowest possible pair to showdown and be good against two opponents. So yeah why not fire the gun and try to take it down right here and now. You do however sound like, you think, you are always ahead here, and thats certainly not the case. Maybe its sort of unlikely, they have a 2 or 5, but they can have a pocket pair, and you lose to all of those. Especially the preflop raiser can have any pocket pair including AA, KK, QQ and all the way down, and you are crushed by all those hands. And for that reason when you get jammed on, I would abandon ship and let it go.

Results
So he was actually bluffing, but then he got there. Thats poker my friend, and it will also happen in normal tournaments.

Hand 2 - 52o

Preflop
SB limp to us, and sure we take a free flop with a hand this bad.

Flop
Standard call since we flopped a pair. His range can be very wide, and we are certainly not always behind.

Turn
Now we make two pair, and he jam in the rest of his chips for a massive 4 x the pot overbet. Yeah sure I am calling here. Lets see, what he have, and roll the dice.

Results
So he had aces none the less, so you were ahead on the turn, but once again you got counterfeited. Cry me a river and post in "bad beats and wents" next time.

Conclusion:

The 52o hand was played flawlessly by you. The opponent made a mistake with his betsize on the turn and got lucky. Such is poker. The T2o hand on the other hand was not played so well, even though you managed to get your chips in good. However that is kind of an outlier in my opinion. A lot of the time you will have 2 outs against a hand like KK, when you call that jam on the flop, and you will be the player looking for some miracle runout to save you. I also think, the hand should have been folded preflop even to a min-raise.
 
killing_random

killing_random

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Hand 1 - T2o -//- Especially the preflop raiser can have any pocket pair including AA, KK, QQ and all the way down, and you are crushed by all those hands. And for that reason when you get jammed on, I would abandon ship and let it go. -//- The T2o hand on the other hand was not played so well, even though you managed to get your chips in good. However that is kind of an outlier in my opinion. A lot of the time you will have 2 outs against a hand like KK, when you call that jam on the flop, and you will be the player looking for some miracle runout to save you. I also think, the hand should have been folded preflop even to a min-raise.
His range was very predictable AJ+. The fact that he min-raises even such strong range tells to me that he want to fit his top pair first to be sure. Basically he's always looking for simplest decisions. Which could means that he would just push preflop his pockets if he had one. With such predictability I want to see with him as much flops as possible. And I would rather prefer to play with T2 then with dominated A2,K2,Q2.
 
Zapahlohotrona

Zapahlohotrona

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You yourself are to blame. The 2To hand does not need to be defended at all. Moreover, this is a freeroll. It’s just folding. In freerolls, you don’t need anyone to lay any ranges. We just play for value. Freerolls are a lottery, this is not poker.
 
najisami

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At first, you look unfortunate in those 2 hands, but if you consider closely how they've been played, you'd lose the right to talk about variance. Variance is what "happens" to people who play poker correctly. It's not to be blamed when we play garbage hands.
In the 52 hand, there's nothing much to say, such a beat happens a lot. But the T2 hand was clearly a bad play from you. Learn from it and move on...
 
killing_random

killing_random

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At first, you look unfortunate in those 2 hands, but if you consider closely how they've been played, you'd lose the right to talk about variance. Variance is what "happens" to people who play poker correctly. It's not to be blamed when we play garbage hands.
In the 52 hand, there's nothing much to say, such a beat happens a lot. But the T2 hand was clearly a bad play from you. Learn from it and move on...

I can't learn anything from it when everything I hear "garbage hand, garbage hand..."
If it's a bad play then spit it out, what bad about it and what's the alternative. Should be easy if that's so clear.
What I'm seeing, that my plan worked just as I expected and if math do her part I can take free from villain's range pots, now and on distance.
 
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najisami

najisami

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I can't learn anything from it when everything I hear "garbage hand, garbage hand..."
If it's a bad play then spit it out, what bad about it and what's the alternative. Should be easy if that's so clear.
What I'm seeing, that my plan worked just as I expected and if math do her part I can take free from villain's range pots, now and on distance.


I said it already, the T2 hand was played very badly from the start.
 
MAGICUZ

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You're just out of luck, it happens sometimes)
 
najisami

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Yeah, whats very bad about it exactly. I need an explanation, not the statement.


All you had is a pair of 2s, the smallest pair in the poker world and you bluff shoved against a player who had raised preflop. He probably had noticed how aggressive you were playing and figured you wouldn't have shoved if you had a 5, so he called and took your chips. Let alone defending with T2 and don't tell me it was because of the pot odds, some suited connectors hand would've been more acceptable than the garbage T2. And like I said before, learn from your mistake, shake it off and move on.
 
Tracid

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Just gonna let this stew and steep here a little...

Screenshot 20210604 001149
~EDiT:- Screenshot quality = TRASH
~10,2o - 69.27%
~AQo - 30.35%


What did you expect? :)

Not to get beat in the most improbable way, ever?

If it went runner-runner fives would you be more, or less annoyed?

It's just far more polite to hit the ace or queen, am I right? :laugh:

Getting counterfeited is always a bum hand to get dealt but for me this general possibility is a factor in my thinking when deciding whether or not to play 22-66, let alone 10,2o... I'm no Texas Dolly! :biggrin:

The nature of the first hand didn't lend inclination towards the second, but I'll watch it now as you went to the effort of posting it...

~EDiiT:- I don't know what to say... Are you trying to beat the system because you suspect the RNG and this is why you're playing hands like 10,2o & 5,2o and are upset when it doesn't work?
 
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1

1nsomn1a

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There will always be similar situations in poker regardless of whether it is a high roller tournament or a freeroll, just always be careful and be prepared for such turns of variance.
 
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fundiver199

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His range was very predictable AJ+.

Why do you remove pocket pairs from his range? Do you think, he use a different raise size preflop with those hands? To me a min-raise is very standard in tournaments, and even more so without ante and stacks as short as this. So the only information, I get from his action, is, that he have some kind of reasonable hand, that he wanted to play.

If he is on the tight side, I would give him 66+, AJ+, KQ, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs. Something in that ballpark. Against this range you had 49% equity on the flop, so you are not doing anywhere near as well, as apparently you thought. Moreover when you donk bet, and he jam, he is probably not doing that with the bottom of his range. If AQ is the worst hand, he is getting it in with, you had 35% equity against his range, so you made a bad call.
 
killing_random

killing_random

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All you had is a pair of 2s, the smallest pair in the poker world and you bluff shoved against a player who had raised preflop. He probably had noticed how aggressive you were playing and figured you wouldn't have shoved if you had a 5, so he called and took your chips. Let alone defending with T2 and don't tell me it was because of the pot odds, some suited connectors hand would've been more acceptable than the garbage T2. And like I said before, learn from your mistake, shake it off and move on.
Wrong. He bluff shoved against a player who had raised postflop. Flop 5 5 2 doesn't belong to nit's MP range, but sure does to mine BB range. His shove is out of place.
Why do you remove pocket pairs from his range? Do you think, he use a different raise size preflop with those hands? To me a min-raise is very standard in tournaments, and even more so without ante and stacks as short as this. So the only information, I get from his action, is, that he have some kind of reasonable hand, that he wanted to play. If he is on the tight side, I would give him 66+, AJ+, KQ, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs. Something in that ballpark. Against this range you had 49% equity on the flop, so you are not doing anywhere near as well, as apparently you thought. Moreover when you donk bet, and he jam, he is probably not doing that with the bottom of his range. If AQ is the worst hand, he is getting it in with, you had 35% equity against his range, so you made a bad call.
I thought you'd just believe me that's I have a read, since it was correct and we move on to the topic.
My stats on him: Desktop Screenshot 20210604   16525292
and he shoves 22 preflop: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424SeC4yE

Player who scared to raise more then 2bb, play postflop other then with premium ace hands, go to postflop with pockets. You're think he want to raise with KK, go to postflop, see an ace and make a tough decision? I don't think so. I can accept that move from him only with AA.
 
killing_random

killing_random

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Just gonna let this stew and steep here a little...

View attachment 290906
~EDiT:- Screenshot quality = TRASH
~10,2o - 69.27%
~AQo - 30.35%


What did you expect? :)

Not to get beat in the most improbable way, ever?

If it went runner-runner fives would you be more, or less annoyed?

It's just far more polite to hit the ace or queen, am I right? :laugh:

Getting counterfeited is always a bum hand to get dealt but for me this general possibility is a factor in my thinking when deciding whether or not to play 22-66, let alone 10,2o... I'm no Texas Dolly! :biggrin:

The nature of the first hand didn't lend inclination towards the second, but I'll watch it now as you went to the effort of posting it...

~EDiiT:- I don't know what to say... Are you trying to beat the system because you suspect the RNG and this is why you're playing hands like 10,2o & 5,2o and are upset when it doesn't work?

That was unnecessary, since CCreplayer also shows the odds.
Desktop
Upload your screenshot in .jpg format, then site will not convert it into "trash".

I'm having here similar EV, when calling preflop open push with AK from a GTO player with a short stack. Not that bad of a call.
Actually, that's basically the answer to my topic. Thx for pushing me in that direction.

In conclusion, you guys should be less focused on a hand appearance itself and more on equity it is created in particular situation.
GL:cool:
 
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