This is a discussion on Am I supposed to drop free money because of stupid variance? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424SeDWJ9 Villain is a passive rock. I know, when coming from the middle of a table, he won't has anything from this kind of flop. I |
|
Page 1 of 2 | Register or Use the arrow to the right to read the next 1 page(s). |
Am I supposed to drop free money because of stupid variance? |
#1
|
||||
|
||||
Am I supposed to drop free money because of stupid variance?
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424SeDWJ9
Villain is a passive rock. I know, when coming from the middle of a table, he won't has anything from this kind of flop. I have the read, bluffcatcher and short stack on top of that. And please don't tell me about "distance will return everything". If someone believe at this bullshit then he/she could get on a final table only by accident. Here's the hand just from yesterday, bassicly the same situation: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424ScY3bz
__________________
|
Similar Threads for: Am I supposed to drop free money because of stupid variance? | ||||
Thread | Replies | Last Post | Forum | |
$10 NLHE 6-max: Wtf im supposed to do here.:) | 7 | May 27th, 2021 11:01 AM | Cash Game Hand Analysis |
#2
|
||||
|
||||
hi hi!!!!
no sure - what is your question? maybe no be so aggressive & vulgar - chill out?
__________________
. Came for Freerolls - Remained for Community
|
#3
|
||||
|
||||
He could have a set or a made hand at the start of the hand with which he raised.
__________________
|
#4
|
||||
|
||||
You supposed to click on that link (https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424SeDWJ9) and watch replay to know the context to my question
__________________
|
#5
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe try folding crappy hands like 5-2 and 10-2?
__________________
Have a great day!
|
#6
|
||||
|
||||
A low pair, on a low board, is USUALLY going to lose. Why on Earth would you call even a min raise, with 210? Complaining about it only makes it worse....
__________________
|
#7
|
||||
|
||||
__________________
|
#8
|
||||
|
||||
100% agree
When you play crappy hands crappy things happen.
__________________
THE DONKEY STRIKES BACK
|
#9
|
||||
|
||||
__________________
|
#10
|
|||
|
|||
I don't understand a word of this post
__________________
|
#11
|
|||
|
|||
No reason to defend your BB with that hand regardless of a tell you might have. Flop play is even worse as most time were getting called by better hands there. Pick a better spot if you ever wanna get out of the freerolls.
__________________
|
#12
|
|||
|
|||
Hand 1 - T2o
Preflop We are only facing a min-raise, but there is no ante, and SB have already called. In that situation I am not defending as wide as T2o. Its not a huge mistake though. You are after all getting 5:1, and you have position on one opponent, so you should defend kind of wide here. Maybe just not quite as wide as T2o. Flop I dont totally hate leading out here and kind of turning your hand into a bluff, since the preflop raiser will have missed this board a lot, and its kind of difficult to get the lowest possible pair to showdown and be good against two opponents. So yeah why not fire the gun and try to take it down right here and now. You do however sound like, you think, you are always ahead here, and thats certainly not the case. Maybe its sort of unlikely, they have a 2 or 5, but they can have a pocket pair, and you lose to all of those. Especially the preflop raiser can have any pocket pair including AA, KK, QQ and all the way down, and you are crushed by all those hands. And for that reason when you get jammed on, I would abandon ship and let it go. Results So he was actually bluffing, but then he got there. Thats poker my friend, and it will also happen in normal tournaments. Hand 2 - 52o Preflop SB limp to us, and sure we take a free flop with a hand this bad. Flop Standard call since we flopped a pair. His range can be very wide, and we are certainly not always behind. Turn Now we make two pair, and he jam in the rest of his chips for a massive 4 x the pot overbet. Yeah sure I am calling here. Lets see, what he have, and roll the dice. Results So he had aces none the less, so you were ahead on the turn, but once again you got counterfeited. Cry me a river and post in "bad beats and wents" next time. Conclusion: The 52o hand was played flawlessly by you. The opponent made a mistake with his betsize on the turn and got lucky. Such is poker. The T2o hand on the other hand was not played so well, even though you managed to get your chips in good. However that is kind of an outlier in my opinion. A lot of the time you will have 2 outs against a hand like KK, when you call that jam on the flop, and you will be the player looking for some miracle runout to save you. I also think, the hand should have been folded preflop even to a min-raise.
__________________
|
#13
|
||||
|
||||
__________________
|
#14
|
||||
|
||||
You yourself are to blame. The 2To hand does not need to be defended at all. Moreover, this is a freeroll. It’s just folding. In freerolls, you don’t need anyone to lay any ranges. We just play for value. Freerolls are a lottery, this is not poker.
__________________
|
#15
|
||||
|
||||
At first, you look unfortunate in those 2 hands, but if you consider closely how they've been played, you'd lose the right to talk about variance. Variance is what "happens" to people who play poker correctly. It's not to be blamed when we play garbage hands.
In the 52 hand, there's nothing much to say, such a beat happens a lot. But the T2 hand was clearly a bad play from you. Learn from it and move on...
__________________
|
#16
|
||||
|
||||
If it's a bad play then spit it out, what bad about it and what's the alternative. Should be easy if that's so clear. What I'm seeing, that my plan worked just as I expected and if math do her part I can take free from villain's range pots, now and on distance.
__________________
|
#17
|
||||
|
||||
re: Poker & Am I supposed to drop free money because of stupid variance?
I said it already, the T2 hand was played very badly from the start.
__________________
|
#18
|
||||
|
||||
You're just out of luck, it happens sometimes)
__________________
There is no other fate than that which we choose ourselves! |
#19
|
||||
|
||||
__________________
|
#20
|
||||
|
||||
All you had is a pair of 2s, the smallest pair in the poker world and you bluff shoved against a player who had raised preflop. He probably had noticed how aggressive you were playing and figured you wouldn't have shoved if you had a 5, so he called and took your chips. Let alone defending with T2 and don't tell me it was because of the pot odds, some suited connectors hand would've been more acceptable than the garbage T2. And like I said before, learn from your mistake, shake it off and move on.
__________________
|
#21
|
||||
|
||||
Just gonna let this stew and steep here a little...
Screenshot_20210604-001149.jpg ~EDiT:- Screenshot quality = TRASH ~10,2o - 69.27% ~AQo - 30.35% What did you expect? Not to get beat in the most improbable way, ever? If it went runner-runner fives would you be more, or less annoyed? It's just far more polite to hit the ace or queen, am I right? Getting counterfeited is always a bum hand to get dealt but for me this general possibility is a factor in my thinking when deciding whether or not to play 22-66, let alone 10,2o... I'm no Texas Dolly! The nature of the first hand didn't lend inclination towards the second, but I'll watch it now as you went to the effort of posting it... ~EDiiT:- I don't know what to say... Are you trying to beat the system because you suspect the RNG and this is why you're playing hands like 10,2o & 5,2o and are upset when it doesn't work?
|
#22
|
|||
|
|||
There will always be similar situations in poker regardless of whether it is a high roller tournament or a freeroll, just always be careful and be prepared for such turns of variance.
__________________
|
#23
|
|||
|
|||
If he is on the tight side, I would give him 66+, AJ+, KQ, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs. Something in that ballpark. Against this range you had 49% equity on the flop, so you are not doing anywhere near as well, as apparently you thought. Moreover when you donk bet, and he jam, he is probably not doing that with the bottom of his range. If AQ is the worst hand, he is getting it in with, you had 35% equity against his range, so you made a bad call.
__________________
|
#24
|
||||
|
||||
My stats on him: Desktop Screenshot 2021.06.04 - 16.52.52.92.png and he shoves 22 preflop: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424SeC4yE Player who scared to raise more then 2bb, play postflop other then with premium ace hands, go to postflop with pockets. You're think he want to raise with KK, go to postflop, see an ace and make a tough decision? I don't think so. I can accept that move from him only with AA.
__________________
|
#25
|
||||
|
||||
Desktop.jpg Upload your screenshot in .jpg format, then site will not convert it into "trash". I'm having here similar EV, when calling preflop open push with AK from a GTO player with a short stack. Not that bad of a call. Actually, that's basically the answer to my topic. Thx for pushing me in that direction. In conclusion, you guys should be less focused on a hand appearance itself and more on equity it is created in particular situation. GL
__________________
|
#26
|
||||
|
||||
it's the best 5 out of 7 period
__________________
DJ and Buckster playing poker together now |
#27
|
||||
|
||||
To be perfectly honest it's not easy to interpret what you are trying to say or ask. I have no idea what is the subject of your thread. What are you trying to show or ask? What's the point here? To try and explain to us all how we're focusing on the wrong things in poker? |
#28
|
|||
|
|||
__________________
|
#29
|
||||
|
||||
Freeroll is a lottery
Play the cards you have nothing else........ Have fun and expect to loose a lot of AA/KK hands, GL at the tables.
__________________
passwords are private and intended for use by CardsChat members only! https://www.cardschat.com/become-a-w...-poker-player/ |
#30
|
||||
|
||||
Stop thinking about the math, and just fold 25 or 210, if you're raised. You did a bit good, but quickly lost, just now. They are bad hands.
__________________
|
#31
|
|||
|
|||
Hand 1: fold pree, move on. No reason to go further than that, especially with sb coming along. 102o vs 2 players is never going to hold up well enough to be profitable long term. Even if sb folded, it's an easy fold. You are getting preflop odds to call with atc here, but you still want to play hands that have good post flop potential. 102s could be a call with the flush potental, but I'd probably still fold. If you had a hand like 610s with some added straight potential, then that would be more playable. You also only had ~17.5 bbs behind going against a stack that could bust you. You really don't want to play bad hands preflop with a short stack. There is no reason to so.
Post flop, check. No reason to lead out against 2 players here. You can check and control the pot, plus your hand is still very venerable at this point. You have 2 pair, but you lose to better to pairs and trips on this board. It's a decent hand to get to showdown with, but you shouldn't be pushing the action here. Hand 2: unfortunate outcome. Also, getting long term results only applies if you're making more +ev decision. If you're making more -ev decisions, then you'll lose in the long term.
__________________
|
#32
|
||||
|
||||
These hands are just examples, I'm not particullary intrested in them. What bothers me - what's the point of a bluffcatching if even with 99% correct reads ratio your win to lose ratio would be 50/50 with variance like that. Apperently 6 outs with two streets ahead is too much to play aggainst. 3 is also too much and I can't reduce it beyond that https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/824SknoKI For now I'm not sure where to put my hands reading skill and just putting pressure. The true value of hand reading lies in bluffcatching with... bluffcatchers (worst hands on board). So, I not interested in advices like "bluffcatche them with the nuts","bluffcatche them with premium range". Maybe "play by reads on later streets and why", "bluffcatching is zero EV, because..." Some of that kind.
__________________
|
#33
|
||||
|
||||
If you already know all the answers then why bother asking
__________________
|
#34
|
|||||
|
|||||
re: Poker & Am I supposed to drop free money because of stupid variance?
The guy with AA was almost certainly not bluffing. He thought, he had the best hand, and because the board got very wet with two flushdraws and a bunch of straightdraws as well, he panicked and did not want to see a river. This was an overplay, but he was not expecting any hand better than AA to fold. As for why the guy with AQ jammed, I honestly dont know. Maybe he thought, you were leading with air, and that he was actually ahead with his AQ high, or maybe he was on some sort of tilt. People sometimes do weird things on paired boards, because they go into this "LOL I think, my opponents missed" kind of mode.
So you have a massive amount of work ahead of you, if you want to become a winning poker player and built up a track record. In the past weekend you played 5 1,5$ SnGs and a freeroll. That should probably have been more like 50 1,5$ SnGs and a freeroll, if you are serious about this. Or at least 20-30. With the lack of volume, you are putting in, it will take forever to build up a bankroll or even prove, you can beat the game. As a final remark you have picked the format, which has the worst rake on PokerStars for microstakes games, the 6-18 man SnGs. Of the 1,5$ buyin PokerStars keep a whopping 21c, which is absolutely brutul. Even with soft competition this is going to be difficult to overcome, so if you want to stick to this format, you need to get to at least the 3,5$ versions as soon as possible. Or you can do, what I did, which was to play the 1$ 45 mans instead. These have a much more reasonable rake, and therefore they are easier to beat.
__________________
|
#35
|
||||
|
||||
Given what I've seen, I highly recommend you take our free course. I am sure that our course will save your nerves, money, and time.
https://www.cardschat.com/become-a-w...-poker-player/
__________________
Success does not consist in never making mistakes but in never making the same one a second time.
|
#36
|
|||
|
|||
Opening A7o from CO is fine, but when facing the 3-bet you should fold. Against this just over 3X sizing and 150BB deep you can defend with any pocket pair, any suited ace, any decent broadway and any suited connectors. But ragged offsuit aces like A7o should still go in the muck, because they play absolutely terrible against his range. Flop You flopped second pair, and this is a standard and easy call. Instead you move all-in for a massive overbet, and this is a terrible play. If he is any sort of reasonable player, he is going to snap fold any hand worse than yours and call with most hands better than yours. Granted you might get some slightly better hands like 88-TT or even JX to fold, but you are risking your entire stack to pick up a very small pot. Also your hand has showdown value, so there is no need to turn it into a bluff. You can just call here and then look to make some decisions on later streets. Results I have no idea, why he called with AK high, and probably you see this as justification, you made a good play. But just because someone might occationally make a really bad call in a freeroll, does not mean, you can pile in 150BB with second pair in a 3-bet pot and expect this to be a long term profitable move. Try doing this in even the 2,2$ "big" or "deep", and you will watch your bankroll pour down the drain at an alarming pace. So stop focusing on the distribution of good and bad runouts and start focusing on your decision making instead. In two of the three hands, you shared, you made some pretty big mistakes. If you are not up after those 64 tournaments on PokerStars, its not only, because you have been unlucky. That might or might not be the case over such a small sample. But regardless of the short term dispersion you have a long way to go in improving your own game, if you want to become a winner.
__________________
|
#37
|
||||
|
||||
You are defending your BB too wide, hence escalating variance. So I do not really understand the complaint.
There is nothing wrong in defending the BB wide, especially if you are confident in your post flop game, but that comes with a price - the more hands you play, more variance you encounter. But if you are mentally not ready to withstand such situations on a constant basis, just fold these crappy hands preflop.
__________________
If There is a Doubt - There is No Doubt
|
#38
|
|||
|
|||
i have looked at it several times and i'm sorry but i still don't understand how you want to defend 25 on the flop the sb has already raised why call there? Just because you hit the 2? I think you should have folded your hand there too. If you're excited to have lost yourself with hands like that, then you really shouldn't play poker. I had AA on the flop came 9A8 so I was clear in front turn came 6 and yes the river came then 7 was clear my opponent had 5x and took his street. I call it bad luck but I understand when you see this more often that you ask yourself whether this is really just bad luck or something else. But when it comes to freerols then completely different conditions count and you have to expect, especially at the beginning of the tournament, that you will meet people who, for example, see 25 as valuable cards and then defend them and also win against AA on the river, even if It was different in this case than it happened often enough.
__________________
|
#39
|
|||
|
|||
__________________
|
#40
|
|||
|
|||
maybe i am not looking right but i did not said preflop but on the flop he made a small raise and with Q on the flop and he has only 25 and hitting the 2 on flop it makes for me no sence to call there. preflop it was everything right he got to see the flop for free but after the flop i think it went wrong
__________________
|
#41
|
|||
|
|||
__________________
|
#42
|
||||
|
||||
__________________
|
#43
|
||||
|
||||
I jammed on the flop, because I didn't want to see Q&K streets (exactly whats happened) which would spoil my 85% win odds against few hands I expect from him. Being forced to fold when you had such potential on the flop would be a huge waste of EV. And what your vision of successful tournament play? Make no mistakes is sure good way to safe your stack but you won't make it to the final table, consistently, like that. I said "consistently" because always playing by your hand makes you highly dependent from variance aka deck of cards, which is the opposite of consistency. To force my way into a final table I want to create an opportunity myself in addition to what variance can give. And when someone playing premium but highly predictible hand, I see that as the opportunity. Come with him on low to medium flop and I'm good to make pressure & profit, because a missed prem hand isn't something that easy to fold. On broadway flop - fold. About overpairs - usually I can tell when opp (if he is not a maniac) want me to fold and when wants my chips. So on that I rely on my guts. Yes, that is still a lots of drawbacks in that strategy, like the turn-river vulnerability. And I can see that now more clearly thx to all that had been said above here. That's why I create this thread. It is still the solid flop strategy to abandon, and I'm looking for some mends. And guys said I'm here just to complain, like what the hell you're talking about...
__________________
|
#44
|
||||||
|
||||||
__________________
|
#45
|
||||
|
||||
That won't really tells anything. I mean what you're looking for at the tables as "success"? Avoid mistakes (got it) and... is that all or else?
__________________
|
#46
|
||||
|
||||
You should always count on your opponent going to the last card and for the entire stack. In this case, I choose the amount of the stake that I am not afraid to lose. Don't risk the entire amount with two small pairs.
__________________
|
#47
|
|||
|
|||
It's how your decision affects your results long term. If you constantly find yourself in situations where you make +ev decisions and/or force your opponent to make -ev decisions more often than not, you'll do well in the long term. That's not to say you will never run into bad variance, but that's going to happen to every one but bad and good players. So, there is nothing special about you or anyone else getting hit with some bad luck. The only difference is the good players know that, even with bad variance hitting, putting yourself in +ev situations will always pay off in the end. Avoiding bad spots as best as possible is just as important, as is not putting yourself in bad situations in the first place. Of course, it's impossible to be on point every single hand of every single mtt. Even pro players make mistakes sometimes, but they're still the players that are making more +ev decisions and less -ev decisions overall. Also, 'winning more than losing' doesn't mean winning more hands than you lose or winning/cashing more mtts you buy into than you bust. It's also about your total profit compared to total buy-ins. MTTs have a ton of variance and no one, not even top pros are every cashing more mtts than they bust out of. But it doesn't matter if you bust out of 49 * $1 buy-in mtts if you win the 50th $1 mtt for $200. At the same it doesn't matter if you cash in 30/50 mtts and break even or barely have a profit to show for it. In the latter, you're absolutely 'winning more than losing' but are your really?
__________________
|
#48
|
|||
|
|||
If you are not using a HUD, then just pay attention to, who on the table is very active, and who is not. Also pay attention to, if someone take non standard lines like limping, weird bet sizes, donk betting in bad situations and so on and so forth. These are all signs of a bad poker player, so you want to play as many hands as possible against that person. It sounds to me like, you have a desire "to make things happen", and for me that is generally not the best way to think about the game. Sure its good to find some spots to bluff and take away pots, that dont belong to you. But they need to be profitable spots. If you just blindly bet the river, because you want to win the hand, that is most likely not going to be profitable. And if "making things happen" involve stacking off on the flop with botton or middle pair, as you did in 2 of the 3 hands, then this is not going to bring you to the final table more often, because in general these plays have a negative expected value or EV. This is just not good poker, especially not the hand, where you piled in 150BB with A7. The stack-off with T2 is not quite as bad, because stacks were relatively short, but its still a negative EV play.
__________________
|
#49
|
||||
|
||||
You can play everything mathematically, with a HUD, and whatnot. It took you well into the money on the $300 game yesterday. I'm not trying to be funny, but take note of how quickly you slipped, at the end. There's a certain amount of savoir faire needed when you're up against proper players
__________________
|
#50
|
||||
|
||||
__________________
|
|
Similar Threads for: Am I supposed to drop free money because of stupid variance? > Texas Hold'em Poker | ||||
Thread | Replies | Last Post | Forum | |
$10 NLHE 6-max: Wtf im supposed to do here.:) | 7 | May 27th, 2021 11:01 AM | Cash Game Hand Analysis |