Am I supposed to drop free money because of stupid variance?

foran

foran

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 17, 2012
Total posts
393
Awards
1
Chips
1
I prefer to check raise in that situation, because there are many 5's and pairs in my range.
 
57noona

57noona

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Jan 16, 2017
Total posts
1,832
Awards
2
US
Chips
13
I like the way your played the hand against AQ, I thought you had a great read on your opponent. In poker sometimes your not rewarded for making the right call at the right time like when you are over a 60% Favorite over that hand. Keep making solid reads on your opponents and you should see better results in the future. I would advise that you don't always play for a bluff catcher type hands. Sometimes you have to pick your spots on these types of hands. Oh and don't be sorry for playing garbage. "One man's trash, can be another man's treasure." Thanks for the posts I enjoyed reading them myself.
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
13,265
Awards
1
Chips
262
When effective stack becomes that small all you can do is hope for cards to come by it's own. Any simple action like raise is already all-in territory, you're simply have no room for an intelligent play. Game starting play itself and players just observe. This is what I hate about MTT.

Then why not try cash games instead?
 
Banjois

Banjois

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Jun 15, 2016
Total posts
509
Awards
2
Chips
17
Like I said, it takes a certain amount of je ne sais quoi. Effective stacks and conversations about such are far too specific.
 
Pokerpoet2

Pokerpoet2

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
May 7, 2020
Total posts
2,483
Awards
2
GB
Chips
253
I cannot understand why you were playing 5/2, even making 2 pair by the turn, he is not throwing away pocket rockets, it just does not happen, and playing bottom 2 pair is always dangerous, when the table can and did pair on the river, it counterfeits lowest pair and cost's you the hand.
How do you know he wasn't playing a Queen with any other card which would have given him top pair with a decent kicker? He could have had anything and still beaten you, Q/5, K/Q, A/Q, there are endless possibilities, he could have been playing 2/2 and still have you beat.
True it was a suck out, but he still had the best hand on the river and that is what matters.
I constantly fold many hands that have a deuce in them unless it is a pocket pair, even Ace Deuce suited could be smashed by someone playing 6/7 when the flop gives you a 3,4,5, and you make the dummy straight, you have to ask yourself what you expect to gain betting a straight when you are holding the bottom end of it.
You have to accept you made a mistake, get over it and try again, these things happen.

When the fun Stops, STOP!
 
D

dgroes

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 6, 2019
Total posts
692
Chips
0
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424SeDWJ9

Villain is a passive rock. I know, when coming from the middle of a table, he won't has anything from this kind of flop. I have the read, bluffcatcher and short stack on top of that.

And please don't tell me about "distance will return everything". If someone believe at this bullshit then he/she could get on a final table only by accident.

Here's the hand just from yesterday, bassicly the same situation: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424ScY3bz

Not variance. You said it urself he is a rock so statistics won with his AA QQ KK 25 is just so poor potential...
 
Banjois

Banjois

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Jun 15, 2016
Total posts
509
Awards
2
Chips
17
Let's discuss how you had a sizeable pot, from playing by the numbers, and then frittered it away, quickly. You should have been on the final table, but weren't. You need to take a look at why that happened.
 
dallam

dallam

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Aug 2, 2018
Total posts
3,093
Awards
28
Chips
139
I don't understand what did you expect, how far would 10-2 grow to win the pot especially when that party was a 3-way.
I honestly think that blinds are important to catch to be able to grow, but this doesn't mean that you have to defend your position with one of the worst hands in poker by period.

And to be really honest, he could have here many combinations to beat your second pair. Especially if you think he is tight when it comes to opening - you get yourself in a flip and you lost.
 
Joe

Joe

99.98% Kiln dried
Bronze Level
Joined
May 28, 2016
Total posts
8,333
Awards
10
GB
Chips
116
Rereading this thread today seems to have imparted a better understanding of your overall question.

If I understand correctly, I'd suggest you make bluff-catching type plays on the river instead, rather than on the flop or turn where there are still cards to come which can upset your reads.. :)

Here's an example I can offer from yesterday's CC $300 supporting my argument that hero/bluff-catching plays are ideally better executed on the river than on the flop or turn:



pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - 300/600 (50 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

Juan_BigNuts (UTG): 23,105 (39 bb)
feedjo (UTG+1): 5,306 (9 bb)
Branimir84 (MP): 3,798 (6 bb)
Cinhos_2000 (MP+1): 17,192 (29 bb)
Rijckenborg (CO): 18,709 (31 bb)
Tr4cid (BU): 11,806 (20 bb)
Anders1616 (SB): 15,624 (26 bb)
BlackChipp (BB): 21,862 (36 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,300) Hero (Tr4cid) is BTN with 3 3
5 players fold, Tr4cid (BU) raises to 1,800, Anders1616 (SB) calls 1,500, 1 fold

Flop: (4,600) 4 7 4 (2 players)
Anders1616 (SB) bets 4,600, Tr4cid (BU) raises to 9,956 (all-in), Anders1616 (SB) calls 5,356

Turn: (24,512) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (24,512) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 24,512

Showdown:
Tr4cid (BU) shows 3 3 (two pair, Fives and Fours)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 59%, Turn: 57%, River: 0%)

Anders1616 (SB) shows T A (two pair, Fives and Fours - higher kicker)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 41%, Turn: 43%, River: 100%)

Anders1616 (SB) wins 24,512
 
killing_random

killing_random

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 3, 2021
Total posts
351
Chips
0
You can play everything mathematically, with a HUD, and whatnot. It took you well into the money on the $300 game yesterday. I'm not trying to be funny, but take note of how quickly you slipped, at the end. There's a certain amount of savoir faire needed when you're up against proper players

Like I said, it takes a certain amount of je ne sais quoi. Effective stacks and conversations about such are far too specific.

Let's discuss how you had a sizeable pot, from playing by the numbers, and then frittered it away, quickly. You should have been on the final table, but weren't. You need to take a look at why that happened.

Dude, you're hilarious :rolleyes:
- Lets talk about how you lost in ITM
- *attempts to talk about ITM*
- Nah, that's far too specific
- ...
- BUT LETS DISCUSS HOW YOU LOST IN ITM


What I'm seeing here is an attempt to look smart enough to teach someone without actually teaching anything. You should not start a conversation about other's mistakes if you have nothing to say about it yourself.

I don't understand what did you expect, how far would 10-2 grow to win the pot especially when that party was a 3-way.
I honestly think that blinds are important to catch to be able to grow, but this doesn't mean that you have to defend your position with one of the worst hands in poker by period.

And to be really honest, he could have here many combinations to beat your second pair. Especially if you think he is tight when it comes to opening - you get yourself in a flip and you lost.

You'll have the idea if you read the conversation on previous page. I won't repeat myself.

Rereading this thread today seems to have imparted a better understanding of your overall question.

If I understand correctly, I'd suggest you make bluff-catching type plays on the river instead, rather than on the flop or turn where there are still cards to come which can upset your reads.. :)

Here's an example I can offer from yesterday's CC $300 supporting my argument that hero/bluff-catching plays are ideally better executed on the river than on the flop or turn:



PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - 300/600 (50 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

Juan_BigNuts (UTG): 23,105 (39 bb)
feedjo (UTG+1): 5,306 (9 bb)
Branimir84 (MP): 3,798 (6 bb)
Cinhos_2000 (MP+1): 17,192 (29 bb)
Rijckenborg (CO): 18,709 (31 bb)
Tr4cid (BU): 11,806 (20 bb)
Anders1616 (SB): 15,624 (26 bb)
BlackChipp (BB): 21,862 (36 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,300) Hero (Tr4cid) is BTN with 3 3
5 players fold, Tr4cid (BU) raises to 1,800, Anders1616 (SB) calls 1,500, 1 fold

Flop: (4,600) 4 7 4 (2 players)
Anders1616 (SB) bets 4,600, Tr4cid (BU) raises to 9,956 (all-in), Anders1616 (SB) calls 5,356

Turn: (24,512) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (24,512) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 24,512

Showdown:
Tr4cid (BU) shows 3 3 (two pair, Fives and Fours)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 59%, Turn: 57%, River: 0%)

Anders1616 (SB) shows T A (two pair, Fives and Fours - higher kicker)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 41%, Turn: 43%, River: 100%)

Anders1616 (SB) wins 24,512

I thought you're gonna show a bluff catch on the river... Showing that bluff catch on the flop can ends bad doesn't prove that bluff catch on the river is better.
What I can say for sure that bluff-catching someone on the river is far more hard because it has five cards instead of three, typically for all kind of preflop ranges.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
AjR3ckless

AjR3ckless

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 23, 2020
Total posts
267
Chips
0
I thought you're gonna show a bluff catch on the river... Showing that bluff catch on the flop can ends bad doesn't prove that bluff catch on the river is better.
What I can say for sure that bluff-catching someone on the river is far more hard because it has five cards instead of three, typically for all kind of preflop ranges.


to me that's just careless and unfortunate at the same time for the losing hand I would prefer to bet in that situation to basically see if the other player is gonna call and see where it goes for there but going all in on is basically hoping for some luck.... what if Ander had a 4 or 7 its game over from the start!!!
 
Robsant

Robsant

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 28, 2021
Total posts
105
Chips
0
How many times have you made this move with this opponent, he must have seen something of you before
 
killing_random

killing_random

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 3, 2021
Total posts
351
Chips
0
Then why not try cash games instead?

I actually wanted to but then I change my mind. Cash is the whole new mindset which also has a bad correlation with my playstyle and desires. The thing is, that in tournaments risk can pay off, in cash however its just minus EV on a distance. In cash you can make money only out of a bad players, versus other regulars best you can expect is 50/50 +0.1— 1% win ratio. In tournaments you can make value from both.
Let me show something https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/324SGDaNq
The whole reason I made that call is that I looked at sharkscope that he is super-duper high limits reg. I saw him playing optimal and I know that he knows that I'm very uncomfortable to call there. With a fish I'd never make a call like that.

Lets think about the hand he might have here:
Desktop Screenshot 20210616   03095737
His tight stats can tell us that he has polarized range, otherwise it won't be optimal play. If he would has "real" AT+ hand, he would play it "for real", no point to flip a coin with them. A2-A9 can be dominated, he won't going for a fishy push like this. Pockets - probably. What a coincidence that he has one at such convenient moment and he definitely understand that. In case that's true, my hand blocking 3 out of 6 AA hands, against KK-22 I'll still have an ace.
And "Herewee Go!" just as expected.
In cash he'd might adapt to my exploit or even do nothing and with right bluff/value frequency & distance brings it back. In tourney he can't do anything about it. We might never bump to each other again. Regs like him not going to give up upon their optimal play against majority of players because of a few exploiters like me out there. So, good for me. Optimal play and Skillful play are not the same thing.
 
davidjavi31

davidjavi31

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 14, 2021
Total posts
74
Chips
0
I think that calling all in is very risky, especially they are the second best pair, but it is simply my opinion.
 
killing_random

killing_random

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 3, 2021
Total posts
351
Chips
0
to me that's just careless and unfortunate at the same time for the losing hand I would prefer to bet in that situation to basically see if the other player is gonna call and see where it goes for there but going all in on is basically hoping for some luck.... what if Ander had a 4 or 7 its game over from the start!!!

That's actually a good representation of what MTT's ITM with a small effective stack force you to overcome.
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
13,265
Awards
1
Chips
262
In cash you can make money only out of a bad players, versus other regulars best you can expect is 50/50 +0.1— 1% win ratio. In tournaments you can make value from both.


I dont agree with that. The definition of a regular is someone, who play well, so weather its cash or tournaments, you are not going to find big edges against those players. Maybe you can find some, if for instance they are to tight or predictable, which is sometimes referred to as a "bad reg". But if anything this is more important with deep stacks and therefore in cash games.

Personally I do beleive, that its easier to make money in MTTs than cash games. But this has more to do with the fact, that MTTs attract more really bad players, and also the fact, that you tend to pay much more rake per hour in cash games.

Its actually not to difficult to beat cash games, but at the end of the month you will often find, that the majority of the profit, you made at the tables, was taken by the poker site. Using a tracker like PT4 is a bit of an eye opener here, since it also track the amount of rake, you paid. And with todays paultry rakeback programs (actually in sweden we get zero due to government regulations), high rake is kind of a deal breaker for me and part of the reason, I moved to MTTs.
 
Joe

Joe

99.98% Kiln dried
Bronze Level
Joined
May 28, 2016
Total posts
8,333
Awards
10
GB
Chips
116
I thought you're gonna show a bluff catch on the river... Showing that bluff catch on the flop can ends bad doesn't prove that bluff catch on the river is better.
What I can say for sure that bluff-catching someone on the river is far more hard because it has five cards instead of three, typically for all kind of preflop ranges.
The point...

... is when you bluff catch correctly on the river, you can't then be out-drawn and lose! :wink: :p

If you bluff catch on the flop/turn with marginal hands, you have to expect to lose a fair percentage of those spots by the time the last card falls (as demonstrated in the various hands in this thread)...

The holdings are always going to be extremely vulnerable in the cases where not actually behind already, which is why it's prudent to avoid staking everything we have in situations like these when we don't need to and why many players just muck preflop.
 
killing_random

killing_random

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 3, 2021
Total posts
351
Chips
0
I dont agree with that. The definition of a regular is someone, who play well, so weather its cash or tournaments, you are not going to find big edges against those players. Maybe you can find some, if for instance they are to tight or predictable, which is sometimes referred to as a "bad reg". But if anything this is more important with deep stacks and therefore in cash games.

Personally I do beleive, that its easier to make money in MTTs than cash games. But this has more to do with the fact, that MTTs attract more really bad players, and also the fact, that you tend to pay much more rake per hour in cash games.

Its actually not to difficult to beat cash games, but at the end of the month you will often find, that the majority of the profit, you made at the tables, was taken by the poker site. Using a tracker like PT4 is a bit of an eye opener here, since it also track the amount of rake, you paid. And with todays paultry rakeback programs (actually in Sweden we get zero due to government regulations), high rake is kind of a deal breaker for me and part of the reason, I moved to MTTs.

I see. But MTTs oftenly end up like this:
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/324SIexOs
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424SLILSZ

People love to ruin a good line with a dumb push when they're being outplayed, they just can't find a fold button. And Variance be like: "Yeah! Keep doing that stupid shit..."

I wonder, how would it feel in a real MTT, especially when you two hours deep, near a bubble. Could you tell me, are people less reckless in real MTTs or maybe there is the limit hold'em MTTs out there?
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
13,265
Awards
1
Chips
262
I see. But MTTs oftenly end up like this:

Once again you pick two hands, where the board runout was unfavourable for you, and then you kind of say, that this is why, you dont have success in tournaments. But this is just simply not the case. You are making many fundamental mistakes in the hands, you shared in this thread, and this is the real reason, why you are not winning.

The A6o hand is another prime example. That hand should have been folded, when the action first got to you, and it should certainly not have been limp-reraised. Thats just a really bizarre line, which you should not take with any hand. Then you got lucky and flopped two pair, and your opponent took it to the streets and stacked off with bottom pair and some backdoors, which meant, that your poor play somehow again resulted in you getting your chips in good. But then he made trips on the river and sucked out on you. This is then the part of the hand, you focus on, but the much more important point is, you should never have been in this hand in the first place.

People love to ruin a good line with a dumb push when they're being outplayed, they just can't find a fold button.

But you also cant find a fold button. Thats apparent from several of the hands, you shared. And this is, what you need to change, if you want to become a long term winning player. The easiest winning strategy to play is TAG, and TAG basically means waiting for good hands and in the meantime let other people goof around. Its not fancy or exciting, but it works.

I wonder, how would it feel in a real MTT, especially when you two hours deep, near a bubble. Could you tell me, are people less reckless in real MTTs or maybe there is the limit hold'em MTTs out there?

As the buyin gets higher, people do naturally start to play better on average, and when the money approaches, even the recreational players want to cash rather than have fun making some wild play. Better play however does not make it easier to win. In fact its just the opposite.
 
uri73796

uri73796

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Jan 19, 2016
Total posts
736
Awards
2
Chips
0
why give up money when it comes to you.
 
P

ph_il

...
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Total posts
10,128
Awards
1
Chips
25
I see. But MTTs oftenly end up like this:

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424SLILSZ
People love to ruin a good line with a dumb push when they're being outplayed, they just can't find a fold button. And Variance be like: "Yeah! Keep doing that stupid shit..."


I wonder, how would it feel in a real MTT, especially when you two hours deep, near a bubble. Could you tell me, are people less reckless in real MTTs or maybe there is the limit hold'em MTTs out there?
5dpiiq
 

Attachments

  • 5dpj8y.jpg
    5dpj8y.jpg
    99.6 KB · Views: 38
abgvedr

abgvedr

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 14, 2021
Total posts
1,270
Chips
60
Let's not talk about it in MTT's ITM. When effective stack becomes that small all you can do is hope for cards to come by it's own. Any simple action like raise is already all-in territory, you're simply have no room for an intelligent play. Game starting play itself and players just observe. This is what I hate about MTT.

Well if you don't like short stack play then register at the beginning of mtt and start building your stack. And don't play hyper. And also push fold play is not as simple and unintelligent as you say.

The thing is, that in tournaments risk can pay off, in cash however its just minus EV on a distance. In cash you can make money only out of a bad players, versus other regulars best you can expect is 50/50 +0.1— 1% win ratio. In tournaments you can make value from both.


There is no just "Good player" and "Bad player". There are limits. The higher they go, the less leaks those players have. And the tougher the game becomes. And franckly you can easily exploit microlimits.

You talk here about 'smart intelligent plays', but by the looks of it you don't have much of discipline, and high level understanding of the game. You make one single read on a guy and call it 'Exploit'. Exploit is a bit more of a long term thing. Exploit is when you see a tendency in opponents play. If hes a nit you steal more, if hes a call station you wait for a hand and bet for value. Thats an exploit. If he shoves one time and you be all 'I dont believe you' thats not exploit. The next thing you might know and hes stacking u with kings or somthing.

And also what you said about shoving the flop with second pair "I wana take it down while im good" again, you lack of long term thinking. When you are good here you wil win small pot, and even if you are good you still gona lose a bunch. And when you are not good on this flop you just losing a whole stack.

And of course there is much room to bluff and bluff catch and fancy plays, but call with some trash hand hit the flop and shove thats like the least fancy play there can be.

Also when you say Oh i saw a man shoving with pocket and he just opened for 2 bigs, not considering that people can adapt and change their play is kind of silly.

And the A6 hand, again you try so hard to play fancy and "intelligent". Min 3bet. Like what you really want to accomplish, besides to 'play fancy'? Hes not folding, you not building much of a pot, you acomplishing nothing. Nothing good. You just telling others that you are a rec player thats it.

Man really you gota play cash. The stuff you said about cash is simply false. Don't look at players as Good and Bad. Everybody is both Good and Bad. You just gota be a little bit more Good and a little bit less Bad as people that you playing against.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
AKQ

AKQ

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
May 27, 2007
Total posts
9,139
Awards
9
Chips
225
the answer is yes
its a gamble even with aces against 27

its hard to swallow

but you don't have enough talent to win on talent alone

come to these terms than back to the drawing board

Well if you don't like short stack play then register at the beginning of mtt and start building your stack. And don't play hyper. And also push fold play is not as simple and unintelligent as you say.




There is no just "Good player" and "Bad player". There are limits. The higher they go, the less leaks those players have. And the tougher the game becomes. And franckly you can easily exploit microlimits.
\
why is the game tougher?
because they do different things?
do they make less mistakes?
are more aggressive?
good player bad player PRO player
these are just tendancies
for every pull their is a push
players cannot make an action that cannot be exploited

the issue is this
people spend their whole life learning micro stake exploits
learning advanced exploitative to crush the small mid stakes!!
your'e not going to go play the PROs poker,
who wrote the books you read
and play them with the strategy they wrote are you??????

now thats fkin dumb

lol

just a different player style you haven't associated and taken the time out for.
they are not mythical beasts
i never wanted to play like the pros
I wanted to beat them ALL
so i read all their books with intention to beat their strategy

to be honest idk wtf gto is
and ive studied it!! what a joke
it sure sounds cool doesn't it
GTO ALL THE TIME!!!!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
abgvedr

abgvedr

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 14, 2021
Total posts
1,270
Chips
60
Bro this is simply too much. Too much random text. Its like do you even make any point?
good player bad player PRO player

Like what do you say? Pro players are not good or bad, they are just pro? Well i would strongly disaggree. I say there is a scale, from zero to hundred, and every single player can find his place on this scale. Nomater how big of a pro you are, there almost always be a beter pro who would find spots in your game to exploit.
 
killing_random

killing_random

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 3, 2021
Total posts
351
Chips
0
The A6o hand is another prime example. That hand should have been folded, when the action first got to you, and it should certainly not have been limp-reraised. Thats just a really bizarre line, which you should not take with any hand. Then you got lucky and flopped two pair, and your opponent took it to the streets and stacked off with bottom pair and some backdoors, which meant, that your poor play somehow again resulted in you getting your chips in good. But then he made trips on the river and sucked out on you. This is then the part of the hand, you focus on, but the much more important point is, you should never have been in this hand in the first place.

You sounds like you're play against ranges, more like multitabler that have no time to think about everything that happens on tables. While I'm playing single table and can focus more on player's mindsets. We just have diffrent approaches. All this mistakes (without quotes, from GTO point of view) were made on purpose, because you can't always have right hand for the right moment and you're play just by the moment without hand, simply bluffing.
That guy with 86s too often go for isolating , why not put him to the test, earlier, while blinds small and GTO mistake we're going for shall costs less aka affordable. If we succeed, we'll get the info that can save us a lot of chips in a future, especially since he siting right behind us. If he 4bet, we're fold, I see nothig wrong to have limp-3bet-fold range vs CO, and also take a note about this guy.
You can play by GTO, I see some regs coming from a higher limits and play like that but usually they bust at the botton of ITM at best, with a smallest stack and some AKs in a hand. GTO is sure +EV but not profitable enough if you're looking for quality (single table) above quantity (multitabling).


Just played my first real money MTT. Everybody was so professional and respectful to my TAG play style, especially when I raise from UTG, and totaly not calling it with 52s and then push on a flop to reraise with a flash-draw.

MTT

Very much like it, gonna play againg. Only need to patch up that hole first by playing something NORMAL...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Real Money Poker - Real Money Casinos
Top