Assuming that winning with K/K now will guarantee you the prize, the question comes down to, "How percentage of the time can I fold my way to a prize here, and is that greater or less than my chances of winning with K/K?"
It's a probability thing. Here's the important stuff:
3 need to knocked out for you to win.
You have 2,145 in the cutoff.
With 600/1,200 blinds and 75 antes
You'll pay that 75 ante 4 times before the BB hits ($300).
You'll have about 500 after posting the BB.
You'll be all-in with any two cards in the SB.
That's six hands. 3 people need to go out in six hands.
MP3 will be force all-in the hand before you are forced in. He *should* be challenged by several people at the table.
Both you and the button will be force all-in on the 6th hand, but you will have more chips, so assuming you both lose you will beat him.
Now what you fail to specify is the state of the people at the other tables. But with your numbers we can determine that.
You are in 17th with 22 getting pair and 3 to-the-money. That means there are 25 players, or 8 in worse shape than you.
Since you have relatively good seating just about all of them are going to be all-in ahead of you. And those that are all-in on the same hand as you will lose if you both lose, because you'll have a bigger chip stack. And some of those 8 will probably have to survive all-in's twice.
Also, people are stupid and I often see medium stacks make some terrible all-in plays when they get something like A/Q and then they get stacked by the big stack who calls with K/J and pairs the board. So you're not just trying to outlast 8 players, you're probably against a ten to twelve people who are liable to shove.
In my opinion the
odds of 3/8 people going out before you in that situation is greater than K/K's chances against the opener.
K/K will win there maybe 75% of the time. But I really I see this game ending *before* those sixth hand forces you all-in about 90% of the time.
Plus you still have a chance of winning hand #6 and staying in until the BB hits you, which is a virtual guarantee.
Of course, that being said, I'd have a hard time folding a pretty hand like K/K or A/A. I guarantee I fold Q/Q here every time.
With K/K, if the opener was betting every pot I don't know if I could resist shoving. If he seeded pretty solid (IE, likely to have an ace) I'd grumble a little bit and fold.
If hand-for-hand hadn't started yet I'd be taking my sweet time to make decisions as well. I might also start taking time depending on when the blinds go up again.
Just curious, what would you guys do in this spot?
K
