People, it's a sattelite. If you don't know what it is/don't know the strategy involved in one, how's your advice gonna help anyone? The thing about sattelites is once you reach a number of players it's over, and the guy with the most chips doesn't take any more than the shortest one. The pressure is on the players who are on the outside looking in. If 22 people are paid and we're on 17th, we don't have to do anything. It's the shortest stacks who have to make a move to change their situations, why should we do it for them?
If I understand correctly, you are 17th/25 with top 22 being paid. You also have the cut off with slightly less than 2 BBs, which is important because it means you still have like 4 hands before the BB. Oh, and it's a micro tournament so noone has any idea what they're doing (you'd probably see top 10 stacks going against each other with big hands).
Okay, so let's say you call the all in. Against a normal raising range, you probably have around 70%-75%
equity with your kings. If a 3rd player comes in you'll be worse, but let's ignore that. So, assuming you'll always win a seat when you win the all in, 70% of the time the seat is yours. This is very important, because now you have to face that equity against the percentage of times you cash when you fold! Since there are still around 8 players with worse stacks, plus probably a lot of larger bad ones and only 3 have to lose before you do. I might be wrong, but I'd say you cash over 80% of the time, probably closer to 90%... this stuff is best done with an ICM calculator, but I'm not familiar with that.
90% is better than 70%
And that's why you fold. Oh, fold aces too I think.
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