$7.50 NLHE MTT: AJs call mp 9bb shove?

[thatgreekdude]

This is most likely a turbo aswell which gives all the more reason to fold, hero is probably sitting pretty in terms of stacksize. I'd much rather be shoving AJ then calling off with it anyway, a fold is the only liable option here.

OP GIVE US SOME MORE INFO ABOUT TOURNEY PLEASE.

 

[duggs]

This is most likely a turbo aswell which gives all the more reason to fold, hero is probably sitting pretty in terms of stacksize. I'd much rather be shoving AJ then calling off with it anyway, a fold is the only liable option here.

OP GIVE US SOME MORE INFO ABOUT TOURNEY PLEASE.

it being a turbo makes it more of a clear call.

are you calling AQ? the equities are virtually identical

 

[thatgreekdude]

it being a turbo makes it more of a clear call.

are you calling AQ? the equities are virtually identical

How though in turbos 12.5bbs is huge why risk your tourney when average is probably like 7 or 8 bigs, to me 5bbs in turbo =10bbs in regular. probably, depends though id pass up AQ sometimes if we were near the bubble or I had a little above average stack.

I just think you guys are giving to little credit saying people are shoving 22+ A2s+ and broadway suited, that is wrong in my opinion, I'd assign that range to a CO/BTN/SB.

 

[WiZZiM]

mr razz and duggs have it nailed here. ranges might be tighter than ax 22plus and lots of btoadways. but if you always assign very tight ranges to villians by default you are passin up on a lot of spots.

we simply have to flip in these spots since were likely down to around 5 or 6 tables left.

two rationales I think are risky.

1. folding because we have skill edge. this is certainly true in a lot of spots but you can easily overestimate how good you actually are especially when you only have a 10bb stack....

2. saying things like. id rather be the shover than the caller. this is another which is correct in context. sure we like to be the aggressor and have two ways to win the pot. but if you dont call apporpriately wide you are giving the field a ton of equity by calling too tight. making their shoves more profitable than they should be. esp these days where players are shoving wider and wider you simply have to make these calls. even if you dont wnat too. saying things like its optional is true. everything is optional, but if you pass up these spots you want to be making damn sure you are making a ton of equity elsewhere.

these two both tie into the human reaction to being risk averse. its totally normal thing to do. but just know its not the way to play poker as you are likely letting the past influence the present and letting emotion get in the way of this spot instead of working out if the call is plus ev vs differing ranges. fwiw this is a simple icmizer spot which ill model to in the next few days(only get one free search per day)

 

[A2345Razz]

How though in turbos 12.5bbs is huge why risk your tourney when average is probably like 7 or 8 bigs, to me 5bbs in turbo =10bbs in regular. probably, depends though id pass up AQ sometimes if we were near the bubble or I had a little above average stack.

I just think you guys are giving to little credit saying people are shoving 22+ A2s+ and broadway suited, that is wrong in my opinion, I'd assign that range to a CO/BTN/SB.

Ya, but when I constructed my range to figure out equities, I used your range, so that doesn't matter.

If you seriously pass up AQss here that's simply lighting money on fire....I mean that's clearly horrible shove fold poker mathematically speaking.


It isn't even worth debating.

 

[thatgreekdude]

Ya, but when I constructed my range to figure out equities, I used your range, so that doesn't matter.

If you seriously pass up AQss here that's simply lighting money on fire....I mean that's clearly horrible shove fold poker mathematically speaking.


It isn't even worth debating.

So if you're on the bubble facing a 9bb shove from mp risking being crippled you're going to call because mathematics tells you to.. ok. Everything is so circumstantial in poker anyway villain could of been 40/30 just as easily as they could of been a 6/3 like everything in poker it just depends. I did say I would probably call AQ there is just certain situations id muck. We're all entitled to our own individual opinions on how hands should be played I think maybe you guys think to mathematically and fail to inject logic but I'm not saying it's bad im just asking you to see it from my point of view and im not the best player by any means I know that but im succesful with the way I play and you are most likely all succesful the way you play I just ask one thing and that's that we don't disregard other people's opinions just cos they don't coincide with our own. I'm sorry for this ridiculous post

 

[duggs]

we disregard opinions that can't support themselves with reason.

 

[thatgreekdude]

we disregard opinions that can't support themselves with reason.

I've said multiple times why risk your tournament life on a flip or dominated (my opinion) that is my reasoning, I'm done with this thread now anyway because I'm not about to stress my point any longer. This is a snap in some spots and in this particular one it's a fold for me.

And by no means am I saying we have to always avoid flips at the risk of being domimated, no. just in a turbo format a 12bb stack is so so healthy and you don't have to risk it to a marginal spot like this.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

This thread has too little info to make a really good decision, honestly.

We don't know anything about villain; we don't know how many players are left or what average stack is.

I agree with thatgreekdude that sometimes in a turbo a 12bb stack is average and not short in relative terms.

I also found it interesting how many people have stated "it's near the bottom of my calling range". But then the same people later state it's a snap call or easy call. How can calling off most of your stack with the bottom of your range ever be a snap call? I mean even if you eventually do it and are ahead it's still never easy to CALL an all in with the bottom of your range...

I think what makes his spot interesting and why we have 2+ pages of posts and lots of heated opinions is that we've actually discovered a tough spot where hero's exact holding is right on the edges of calling and folding. Some of you will snap here, that's fine. One guy actually said he'd only call because it's suited and normally that's silly but in this spot it's close enough that being suited might tip the scales towards a call for some players, and that's fine too.

I don't think it's fine to belittle and disregard people who think this spot is closer than you do and say their opinions have no logical basis just because you disagree. If we all simply agreed on hands threads would be short and unhelpful.

There is no correct way to play poker and there are lots of different approaches to being a successful player. My approach at these stack sizes is to push light and call tight. I've had a lot of success in turbos where average stack at the bubble hovers around 15bb. One thing I can tell you for sure is there is more to playing a 10-15bb stack than just pot odds.

 

[duggs]

How though in turbos 12.5bbs is huge why risk your tourney when average is probably like 7 or 8 bigs, to me 5bbs in turbo =10bbs in regular. probably, depends though id pass up AQ sometimes if we were near the bubble or I had a little above average stack.

I just think you guys are giving to little credit saying people are shoving 22+ A2s+ and broadway suited, that is wrong in my opinion, I'd assign that range to a CO/BTN/SB.

risking your tourney is irrelevant. its more of a call in a turbo as our stack is implicitly worth less so any argument based on us having an edge diminishes.

 

[duggs]

I don't think it's fine to belittle and disregard people who think this spot is closer than you do and say their opinions have no logical basis just because you disagree. If we all simply agreed on hands threads would be short and unhelpful.

There is no correct way to play poker and there are lots of different approaches to being a successful player. My approach at these stack sizes is to push light and call tight. I've had a lot of success in turbos where average stack at the bubble hovers around 15bb. One thing I can tell you for sure is there is more to playing a 10-15bb stack than just pot odds.

well when they are dividing players into mathy v true players and implying that the mathematical solution is wrong, not because of arguments you have made. but because then don't like risk, that too me is illogical. we are going to bust tourneys approx 85-90% of the time, embrace it or unreg pre.

regarding the last paragraph. if we restrict the game space to shove/fold options then poker actually has been solved for.

there is no implication of an ICM decision here so +cEV, (especially when it takes us from a low edge stack into a higher edge stack with success) is the best measure of profitability.

 

[duggs]

So if you're on the bubble facing a 9bb shove from mp risking being crippled you're going to call because mathematics tells you to.. ok. Everything is so circumstantial in poker anyway villain could of been 40/30 just as easily as they could of been a 6/3 like everything in poker it just depends. I did say I would probably call AQ there is just certain situations id muck. We're all entitled to our own individual opinions on how hands should be played I think maybe you guys think to mathematically and fail to inject logic but I'm not saying it's bad im just asking you to see it from my point of view and im not the best player by any means I know that but im succesful with the way I play and you are most likely all succesful the way you play I just ask one thing and that's that we don't disregard other people's opinions just cos they don't coincide with our own. I'm sorry for this ridiculous post

if the villain is 40/30 the math will tell you to call.
if the villain is 6/3 the math will tell you to fold.
the maths isn't invariant to the range we assign.

mathematics and logic go hand in hand.

 

[jj20002]

Except it isn't marginal at all bc you aren't getting 1 to 1, and that range doesn't include any spazzouts or targetted shoves based on our stats which I am sure on avg are going to look nitty if you really think a muck here looks correct.

Lets say you're right and we have 53% pot equity on avg.....that doesn't mean in any sense this is marginal at all since given the overlay the pot is laying you you only need ~40-41% equity to make it a EV neutral call. Sure, I think turning down a neutral call is fine here if we assume a skill edge over the field, etc....but to turn down 12-13% in equity is ridiculous.

I also think including some spazzouts (they happen) means it might be closer to 15% more equity than we need.

CLEAR CALL.

for me this is not the right spot to risk the tourney, the opponent is MP not LP and he is not a shortie, actually after him are two shorties who could eventually pay with very marginal hands so unless this opponent is particular loose i dont see what´s the reason he is going allin with still a decent stack with AJ-, he is obviously taking advantage of fold equity with AJ+ or a pocket pair 77+ and in both cases he is over AJ

now i need to be playing in this table for a while to take the right decision and maybe with some more info from the table i could think to call

did you fold TT? well i remember one november niner (2014) folding pocket tens when three tables left, and he was ahead and when they were only 2 tables he folded pocket 77 against the shortest stack and one caller (55 vs 44) and in both cases he was ahead and was the last to speak but at the end he made the final table and the players who took the risk were busted before him and only one made the final table and was the first to leave as well!

 

[WiZZiM]

so lets actually settle this. you can twist logic all you like but lets work out the math behind it (someone who is better qt math than I). I will plug it into icmizer with ranges we can expect from a tight player. obviously if hes a nit and not shoving worse it cant be a call. but without that info surely you all have a default range you can put a player on.. well lets hear it. what do you think the average player jams here.....


of course all opinions will differ but for me. something like

a5 22 kjs andabove would be it. I think some may go wider and playing mtt more often id have more of an idea. but that range covers both possibilities of villain being loose or tight. I think its in the middle. anyone else care to offer up what they think is a good default range here. once we have a default range then we can see how profitable it is vs a looser than average range and how profitable vs a tighter than average range.

 

[A2345Razz]

So if you're on the bubble facing a 9bb shove from mp risking being crippled you're going to call because mathematics tells you to.. ok. Everything is so circumstantial in poker anyway villain could of been 40/30 just as easily as they could of been a 6/3 like everything in poker it just depends. I did say I would probably call AQ there is just certain situations id muck. We're all entitled to our own individual opinions on how hands should be played I think maybe you guys think to mathematically and fail to inject logic but I'm not saying it's bad im just asking you to see it from my point of view and im not the best player by any means I know that but im succesful with the way I play and you are most likely all succesful the way you play I just ask one thing and that's that we don't disregard other people's opinions just cos they don't coincide with our own. I'm sorry for this ridiculous post

I am not disregarding anyone's opinions based on whether they agree with my own; I am telling you that you yourself provided a range and given that range it is mathematically wrong under normal circumstances to even consider a fold.


We can pretend we are on a bubble here, but the OP didn't mention that, so you are just adding that in arbitrarily.

We can pretend the villain is tighter than 95%+ of players, but again, I think it is implicit in the OP that that isn't the case or isn't know to be the case.

I also am confused by you seeming to believe math is somehow separate from logic....math is logic or a wing of logic. If anyone is being illogical in this "debate" (lol) it isn't the people using ranges and equities to back their conclusions. Rather, it is the people who nebulously speak about it not being the "right time' to put their tournament life on the line, etc.

Just nonsense....you cannot pass up big equities like this and expect to win at any reasonable stakes in 2014 over the long run. It isn't 2005, you cannot always wait for an 80-20 to get money in and expect to skate to FTs that way.

In no way, shape or form am I insulting anyone posting in this thread. Having an idiotic or illogical or simply incorrect view of SS donkament play doesn't mean someone is an idiot, illogical or a moron; it means they need to play/study more about how to construct accurate ranges and make equity calculations.

I used to make arguments about how folding AK was correct on 2p2; that didn't make me a nimrod, it made me uninformed/unseasoned from a tournament poker POV.

Have a great day, and try not to take anything on an internet message board too seriously guys....it's just people chatting about a card game.

p.s.

No one is saying there isn't more to playing donkament poker (even turblow donkament poker) than pot odds. What we are saying is there are times when the pot odds are compelling to the point at which different styles of play simply stop mattering (assuming they are in fact profitable styles) and all above average players must agree that one action is correct.

 

[A2345Razz]

for me this is not the right spot to risk the tourney, the opponent is MP not LP and he is not a shortie, actually after him are two shorties who could eventually pay with very marginal hands so unless this opponent is particular loose i dont see what´s the reason he is going allin with still a decent stack with AJ-, he is obviously taking advantage of fold equity with AJ+ or a pocket pair 77+ and in both cases he is over AJ

now i need to be playing in this table for a while to take the right decision and maybe with some more info from the table i could think to call

did you fold TT? well i remember one november niner (2014) folding pocket tens when three tables left, and he was ahead and when they were only 2 tables he folded pocket 77 against the shortest stack and one caller (55 vs 44) and in both cases he was ahead and was the last to speak but at the end he made the final table and the players who took the risk were busted before him and only one made the final table and was the first to leave as well!

Alright,

1) The shover is a shortie by any reasonable meaning of the term. Being at an M of 3.4 or something is short (remember antes change everything)and with no extreme bubble considerations being given to us means the fact that there happens to be some people shorter than him on a table at a given time is irrelevant as far as discussing how short he is.

2) Your range is ridiculously too tight. If you think most competent players here are mucking hands like A10ss A9ss, 66 and 55; you are simply out of touch with how the game plays online in 2014 at pretty much all stakes.

3) You guys keep acting like the OP is getting 1:1 on his money and needs 50.0001% Chip EV to make the call profitably in a "cash game" environment....but there is an overlay which means he needs significantly less than 50% equity to call her profitably from a chip EV perspective.

4)The whole thinking in the last paragraph is not only wrongheaded but dangerous to a poker player. This is what is called results oriented thinking. I once won a huge pot HU 4B small with 23ss. It was a horrible play, and the fact that the deck bailed me out by flopping me 3 deuces doesn't make it any less bad of a play. Also, people TEND to have a strong bias of confirmation. What that means is we search out and identify evidence that backs up our preconceived notions of how the world operates and tend to discount and ignore evidence that contradicts those notions.

Stop thinking like this if you want to get better at poker.

 

[UnreaLaydown]

Really what it comes down to is what you perceive to be the villains shoving range. since you are the one who has been playing with him during the tournament you can put him into range better than anyone on this forum. I know it sounds corny, but honestly you just need to go with your gut on this one and decide if you think he has a real hand or a low pocket pair and is trying to steal.

 

[Farseer]

Easy call with no reads. Would have to be very tight opponent / near bubble or in FT to fold this one.

 

[HooDooKoo]

I see the merit of both sides of this argument. I fully understand the mathematics supporting calling here, but I also understand the desire to find a better spot if possible. I lean toward a call here if this is a turbo because we could easily blind away without finding a better (much less equal) spot, but I might choose to fold if the villain is the Harrington/Greenstein type.

The one factor in this decision that's been discussed in this thread that I take issue with, though, follows:

I agree with thatgreekdude that sometimes in a turbo a 12bb stack is average and not short in relative terms.

The definition of short, which is generally considered <10bbs, is not smaller for a turbo. In fact, you are short when you have >10bbs in a turbo because the blinds increase faster, so your current 10bb stack erodes faster than they would in a standard tournament.

This is important because it can create a situation where the average stack size no longer matters in a turbo. If the average stack size is 12bbs in this turbo, the fact that you have an average stack doesn't give you any additional playability with those 12bbs. Instead, it means that the MAJORITY of the players in the tournament are short. Your play should reflect that fact that both you (and the villain) are shot, making this a call absent a strong read on the villain.

-HooDooKoo

P.S. I don't want this post to come off as an indictment of missjacki. I only chose to use her quote because it was the most recent and clearest mention of the situation I wanted to address.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

so lets actually settle this. you can twist logic all you like but lets work out the math behind it (someone who is better qt math than I). I will plug it into icmizer with ranges we can expect from a tight player. obviously if hes a nit and not shoving worse it cant be a call. but without that info surely you all have a default range you can put a player on.. well lets hear it. what do you think the average player jams here.....


of course all opinions will differ but for me. something like

a5 22 kjs andabove would be it. I think some may go wider and playing mtt more often id have more of an idea. but that range covers both possibilities of villain being loose or tight. I think its in the middle. anyone else care to offer up what they think is a good default range here. once we have a default range then we can see how profitable it is vs a looser than average range and how profitable vs a tighter than average range.

Ok. I'll play. When I have no reads I tend to assign my own range to a player.

My range to open jam in a spot like this is would be something like 44+ A2s A8o KTs+ QJs+ KQo JTs T9s

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

regarding the last paragraph. if we restrict the game space to shove/fold options then poker actually has been solved for.

there is no implication of an ICM decision here so +cEV, (especially when it takes us from a low edge stack into a higher edge stack with success) is the best measure of profitability.

Duggs, I will agree with you that poker is "solved" for in a push/call situation but that is only when you are assuming a certain range; which we as a group cannot agree on and the OP did not give us any clues or range reads of his own to work with.

I will respectfully disagree that there is no ICM implication...ICM matters in every tourney situation except heads up and winner take all. It may be less of a factor the farther from the bubble you are but it is always a factor in every MTT and the math supports this. ICM just happens to be very hard to calculate except for in single table situations and so many people (erroneously) disregard ICM in MTTs until the final table.

And they're only making a tiny error because Usually +cEV is going to give you all the info you need to make a good decision but +$EV is actually the best measure of profitability in all tourneys. But when a spot is close...then it may be worth delving into the minutiae of the hand to contrast +cEV vs +$EV and see If we can learn anything in a general sense. I'm glad WiZZiM has offered to attempt this. I look forward to seeing the results and I will be happy to learn if I am really really wrong on this because maybe then I can plug a leak.

Really what it comes down to is what you perceive to be the villains shoving range. since you are the one who has been playing with him during the tournament you can put him into range better than anyone on this forum. I know it sounds corny, but honestly you just need to go with your gut on this one and decide if you think he has a real hand or a low pocket pair and is trying to steal.

You've hit the nail on the head I think. We're all arguing about broad concepts and really this spot boils down to a range read. And since none of us were there and weren't given any clues, we're all just assigning our own arbitrary default ranges to the villain.

So, we're not comparing apples to apples here without a range read.

 

[WiZZiM]

I dont have a computer atm but have access to a comp tommorow. while dollar ev doesnt match chip ev its so darn close it shoudnt have any effect on this situation.

also not sure if an icm calc can help us much here I may need more tourney info..

 

[AtiFCOD]

View attachment 70536

Since you dont have info about the player, I think both call and fold can be a good choice. Under 10BB, most of the players have wide range (22+,10J+) and AJ beats most of them. But AJ is pretty vulnerable....so 50-50. This time you have to rely your intuition.

 

[duggs]

Duggs, I will agree with you that poker is "solved" for in a push/call situation but that is only when you are assuming a certain range; which we as a group cannot agree on and the OP did not give us any clues or range reads of his own to work with.

I will respectfully disagree that there is no ICM implication...ICM matters in every tourney situation except heads up and winner take all. It may be less of a factor the farther from the bubble you are but it is always a factor in every MTT and the math supports this. ICM just happens to be very hard to calculate except for in single table situations and so many people (erroneously) disregard ICM in MTTs until the final table.

And they're only making a tiny error because Usually +cEV is going to give you all the info you need to make a good decision but +$EV is actually the best measure of profitability in all tourneys. But when a spot is close...then it may be worth delving into the minutiae of the hand to contrast +cEV vs +$EV and see If we can learn anything in a general sense. I'm glad WiZZiM has offered to attempt this. I look forward to seeing the results and I will be happy to learn if I am really really wrong on this because maybe then I can plug a leak.



You've hit the nail on the head I think. We're all arguing about broad concepts and really this spot boils down to a range read. And since none of us were there and weren't given any clues, we're all just assigning our own arbitrary default ranges to the villain.

So, we're not comparing apples to apples here without a range read.

haha yea caught me on the ICM thing, thats me being sloppy, yea it technically applies but it runs so close its effectively irrelevant.

i ran the range you posted earlier and we have 54% equity against it. thats waaaay to huge of an edge to pass up. i don't think this spot is remotely close.

 

[duggs]

assuming your range of 44+ A2s+ A8o+ KTs+ QJs JTs T9s KQo

we need 40.8% to make a break even call. A9o has 42.8% A8s has 42.9, 66 has 48.4%, 55 has 46%.

22 has 41.2%
KQs has 44.1%
KJs has 41.7


A7s is an exactly break even call.
KTs is a break even call

AJs is so far from a close decision imo