Dubstep
Visionary
Silver Level
A clear cla? How about a clear response lol :reddy:
T
trent32la
Legend
Bronze Level
Snap call, a normal 9bb HJ shoving range is going to be
22+ A2s+ A5o+ K6s+ K9o+ Q9s+ QTo+ J9s+ JTo+ T9s 89s, probably tighter.
Also note we are getting 1.44 to 1 to make this call, meaning we need 38% equity roughly for this to be profitable. Doesn't take advanced math knowledge to know AJs is ahead of 38% of the hands listed above in a normal shoving range.
22+ A2s+ A5o+ K6s+ K9o+ Q9s+ QTo+ J9s+ JTo+ T9s 89s, probably tighter.
Also note we are getting 1.44 to 1 to make this call, meaning we need 38% equity roughly for this to be profitable. Doesn't take advanced math knowledge to know AJs is ahead of 38% of the hands listed above in a normal shoving range.
horizon12
Legend
Silver Level
Without hud very hard sayd what doing here , I think vs villain with 8bb, here many in range Ax and pairs so call will be good , but very marginal,, Also need know it already ITM or how how far for bubble , it is also a factor for call or fold...
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
noted will ignore your hands in future
R
RamdeeBen
Legend
Silver Level
duggs is correct, clear call.
I mean, given the amount of hands he's shoving which include probarbly 65s+ worse Ax, KJs+, KQo, 22+ etc.
Also have to ask, is this turbo? If so, even an easier call.
When you face spots like this, ask yourself what you would do with 2 hands close. For example; AQs you would probarbly snap call and not even think about posting the thread. ATs is closer, but I think it's still a call but really would need more information on villain. If the guy is a reg it's a very easy call.
I mean, given the amount of hands he's shoving which include probarbly 65s+ worse Ax, KJs+, KQo, 22+ etc.
Also have to ask, is this turbo? If so, even an easier call.
When you face spots like this, ask yourself what you would do with 2 hands close. For example; AQs you would probarbly snap call and not even think about posting the thread. ATs is closer, but I think it's still a call but really would need more information on villain. If the guy is a reg it's a very easy call.
A2345Razz
Legend
Silver Level
Not to be overly repetitious but why no ICM info?
In a vacuum it is a call because he is shoving A9 and probably all suited Aces, so....ya, we are ahead of his range.
I mean, its a call.....it's pretty clearly a call. A10ss is a call too probably.
In a vacuum it is a call because he is shoving A9 and probably all suited Aces, so....ya, we are ahead of his range.
I mean, its a call.....it's pretty clearly a call. A10ss is a call too probably.
Jacki Burkhart
long winded rambler...
Silver Level
I'm surprised by some of the responses here justifying a fold, this is a snap call and I think we are pretty happy against his shoving range here
Why are you surprised? What is a snap call to some is close or a crying call or a tank fold for others. Lots of different styles play this game so of course you should expect to hear different opinions.
My rationale is something like this:
If we put his shoving range at A8+ A2s+ 22+ KQo and any 2 suited broadway cards we have 49% win equity + 7% chop equity; so roughly 52.5% equity. We have no fold equity and we are essentially flipping for most of our stack.
I think in tournaments we can sometimes pass on high variance but marginally +EV line for most our chips. Especially if we think we are among the better players at our table. If everything else about this hand were the same except hero had a much bigger stack (like 400k); then I'd say it's a clear call.
In cash game pot odds are king.
In tournaments stack size management is the name of the game.
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thatgreekdude
Legend
Silver Level
I'm folding this every single time unless he's a fish. My personal take is he's shoving 88+ A10+ i'd probably discount AA/KK sometimes QQ but yeah i'm still never calling this.
And just before i'm told i'm completely wrong i've been there trying to make all these EV+ calls, it's all aload of bull if you ask me you'll run into worse like 5% of the time and the other times you're completely crushed. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
And just before i'm told i'm completely wrong i've been there trying to make all these EV+ calls, it's all aload of bull if you ask me
you'll run into worse like 5% of the time and the other times you're completely crushed. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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A2345Razz
Legend
Silver Level
I'm folding this every single time unless he's a fish. My personal take is he's shoving 88+ A10+ i'd probably discount AA/KK sometimes QQ but yeah i'm still never calling this.
And just before i'm told i'm completely wrong i've been there trying to make all these EV+ calls, it's all aload of bull if you ask me
If you think a lot of good players aren't super happy to shove 77 88 A9ss here, you're nuts.
I am sorry, you simply are wrong with constructing a rational real world range.
Mucking 77 here is literally like setting cash on fire.
J
jj20002
Visionary
Silver Level
A2345Razz
Legend
Silver Level
Except it isn't marginal at all bc you aren't getting 1 to 1, and that range doesn't include any spazzouts or targetted shoves based on our stats which I am sure on avg are going to look nitty if you really think a muck here looks correct.
Lets say you're right and we have 53% pot equity on avg.....that doesn't mean in any sense this is marginal at all since given the overlay the pot is laying you you only need ~40-41% equity to make it a EV neutral call. Sure, I think turning down a neutral call is fine here if we assume a skill edge over the field, etc....but to turn down 12-13% in equity is ridiculous.
I also think including some spazzouts (they happen) means it might be closer to 15% more equity than we need.
CLEAR CALL.
T
thatgreekdude
Legend
Silver Level
Ok well I must be nuts then and I musn't be a good player, thanks
I'd rather wait for better spots in later positions as a shover, and I'm only comfortable calling with AJs if he's shipped from the CO/SB/BTN and sometimes hijack, one thing to consider is how close you are to the money bubble average stack size etc.. and btw I think if hero has more chips this is a snap bc pot odds are obviously there, but why the hell risk crippling yourself completely, I'd much rather try to win the tournament than make a +ev play (in before you tell me +ev wins you tournaments in the long run)
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Jacki Burkhart
long winded rambler...
Silver Level
Ok well I must be nuts then and I musn't be a good player, thanks
agree.
Here is a concept I've been trying to get across in these tourney hand analysis threads that nobody seems to really understand. I'm gonna try again:
If you are in a tourney situation where you have OK chips and you are having a pretty easy time slowly chipping up...stealing blinds more than your fair share and winning several small to medium pots per level, there is simply no reason to flip for most of your chips EVEN IF THE POT ODDS ARE THERE!!!!
I know that can sound crazy to players who come from a cash mindset but wait....calm down....let me explain...
In a cashgame if you determine you have a 12-13% edge in a certain spot and you take it, and you lose....you can simply just reach into your wallet, buy some more chips and continue taking spots with a 12-13% edge all night.
In a tourney if you have a 12-13% edge and you take it and you lose all or most of your chips...then you have negated your ability to take all future better spots in the tourney. This is not so in a cash game. If I know I'm likely to have several opportunities in the future to get my stack in as a 60/40 favorite or a 70/30 favorite then why would I risk all that future equity NOW on a 52/48 spot? because of pot odds? pot odds won't change the fact that roughly half the time my tourney will be over and I will lose the ability to find better spots.
It is very different when you're short and the likelihood of finding a better spot in the next 15-20 hands is very low. But in this spot, hero is not particularly short, the pot odds are not particularly amazing (1.4:1 is just ok) and we are not significantly ahead of his range, and losing this hand will cripple us to the point the we'll be all in with crappy cards in the next orbit.
So....I don't think calling is BAD I just think it is optional and I will usually find a fold because I feel confident I am going to find a better spot later.
The better of a player I think this is, the more likely I am to call because his range will be wider and the opportunity to knock out a good player increases my equity in the tournament. If I think he is a fish, then I'm more likely to fold. the original poster didn't give us any stats or reads, so I tend to assume players are average or straightforward until proven otherwise.
Marcwantstowin
Member of the T.S.T
Moderator
Defo - Call, but at the low end of my range, sounds stupid but given they are suited I would say that makes it about a 1% more chance of winning with AJ suited against any hand so probably worth the chance. Gl to you all...........
Poker Orifice
FoolsTilt
Platinum Level
super easy call
in game I would probably also know that villain has played over 52,000 games on Stars alone
For those of you who are suggesting finding a fold here in this spot, what range are you putting villain on?
Something else to consider in some spots similiar to this (but not this one (imo) because it is clearly a call so not necessary) is how winning will effect our chances for winning the tourney & it's effect on stack size utitlity (ie. winning this hand here will give HERO a decent reshove stack with ~23bb's).
in game I would probably also know that villain has played over 52,000 games on Stars alone
For those of you who are suggesting finding a fold here in this spot, what range are you putting villain on?
Something else to consider in some spots similiar to this (but not this one (imo) because it is clearly a call so not necessary) is how winning will effect our chances for winning the tourney & it's effect on stack size utitlity (ie. winning this hand here will give HERO a decent reshove stack with ~23bb's).
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
I dont agree with this tbh, i think you are grossly underestimating how profitable a 12% edge is, especially as we only have 12.5bb.
v 22+ JTs+ QTs+ KTs+ A2s+ A8o we have 53% equity.
AQo has 54.4 v that range
AKo has 58%
this isn't a small edge at all, in all honesty this is a very very big edge. 1bb is a huge expectation. in a cash game my expectation when playing a hand is .03bb per hand. and thats with a deeper effective stack. if we fold here I honestly don't see what edges we are willing to take that actually leads to a positive ROI.
assuming we have multiple opportunities to gii with 60% equity is a bit absurd, and ignores how much our stack diminishes as we folding looking for the nuts.
hero is extremely short, hero has 12bb. the utility of stacks below 17bb diminishes as their ability to 3bet shove and expect folds diminishes, they lose fold equity at around 6bb and they lose 3bet shove fold equity over an open at about 15. hero is super short.
our positive ROI comes from our ability to take edges the rest of the field doesn't. very little of our edge comes from sub 10bb plays as the cap on the gain with our range is so low. if you had a stack which would be more meaningfully affected by it like say 19-23bb i would be more in favour of folding weaker hands. but this is way to profitable to ever justify folding.
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thatgreekdude
Legend
Silver Level