1 to 9 odds to limp

[Alon Ipser]

pokerstars Game #15797825219: Tournament #79860538, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (500/1000) - 2008/03/07 - 01:54:19 (ET)
Table '79860538 19' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Alon Ipser (26759 in chips)
Seat 2: christracy (38420 in chips)
Seat 3: viper31573 (58047 in chips)
Seat 4: GA alan (11570 in chips)
Seat 6: csccjcs (17858 in chips)
Seat 7: player8b (17180 in chips)
Seat 8: BLTiger (38248 in chips)
Seat 9: MONOBLOK (10303 in chips)
Alon Ipser: posts the ante 100
christracy: posts the ante 100
viper31573: posts the ante 100
GA alan: posts the ante 100
csccjcs: posts the ante 100
player8b: posts the ante 100
BLTiger: posts the ante 100
MONOBLOK: posts the ante 100
Alon Ipser: posts small blind 500
christracy: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Alon Ipser [5s 4c]
viper31573: folds
GA alan: calls 1000
csccjcs: calls 1000
player8b: folds
BLTiger: folds
MONOBLOK: folds
Alon Ipser: ?????

This is probably a no brainer but I limp in with just about any 2 cards in this situation don't I?

 

[jaketrevvor]

Is this regular at the table? If so what's been the general trend if someone raises? And are you getting implied odds on a limp? I'd much rather raise to 13k here in a lot of situations but that also depends on how the 2 big stacks behind you are playing... are they calling big raises light pf?

 

[Bentheman87]

Yea you should call as well but play tight postflop unless you really hit. You're getting 9:1 pot odds so you have to win 10% of the time or more postflop, and against 3 other hands (we'll say the two limpers have something like ace 9 and 77 and the BB has an average strength hand) you're probably a bit over 10% to win.

 

[viking999]

One more thing to consider is this:

You're going to hit one pair more than anything else. That one pair may be the best hand, but can you really act on that? You're first to act out of 4 players. Pretty much the only time your one pair will win unimproved is if everyone checks it down. So you're going to get bluffed off the best hand a lot in this situation. I'd demand a bit more than 10% chance to win in order to call with 9:1 odds, because I expect to get bluffed off a large number of those wins.

I'd still call, though, because I think 54o has enough of a chance. Just food for thought.

 

[donkeykiller]

54os would be an easy fold to me only way I would call that would be for early in the tournment and for a limp in bet no way I would call there

 

[KyleJRM]

Fold.

Unless the flop is an absolute monster for you, you will have no idea if you are ahead or behind when you hit. Do you bet when the flop comes 8-7-4? Do you go all-in when it comes A-5-4? Just too much to find out.

 

[Chiefer]

9 to 1 odds. call it, see a flop, if you don't hit big, check fold.

 

[KyleJRM]

9 to 1 odds. call it, see a flop, if you don't hit big, check fold.

You aren't going to "hit big" one times out of nine.

Even at 1:9, the odds of you hitting big enough to *know* that you ahead isn't worth it.

If you hit big, the high cards probably whiffed and you won't get paid. If you hit small, you will pay a lot of money to find out that your two pair got counterfeited or your OESD never hit.

It isn't the cost of seeing the flop that gets you with these types of situations. It's the cost of seeing the turn and river when you think you might have something.

 

[jaketrevvor]

You aren't going to "hit big" one times out of nine.

Even at 1:9, the odds of you hitting big enough to *know* that you ahead isn't worth it.

If you hit big, the high cards probably whiffed and you won't get paid. If you hit small, you will pay a lot of money to find out that your two pair got counterfeited or your OESD never hit.

It isn't the cost of seeing the flop that gets you with these types of situations. It's the cost of seeing the turn and river when you think you might have something.

I completely and utterly disagree. The whole point of limping with these kinds of hands is that you get great implied odds when you do flop that small straight or 2p, especially at these low stakes where people pay off uberlight. It shouldn't be "costing" you anything to see the turn and river, you whould be the one making people pay.

 

[Chiefer]

^^^^ this.

 

[blankoblanco]

don't fold. either call or, as JT suggested, raise big if you think you can pick up the dead money (v. dependent on table conditions, players, etc). since the open limper put in 10% of his stack and you have a hand that is crushed by 44-77, which people limpcall with a lot, i'd tend to lean toward just calling

the risk vs. reward here is very in your favor and that's a big element of tournament success. you will never ever see a well respected MTT pro fold this here because they understand that getting an insanely good price to perhaps win a huge pot is crucial to going deep. the 500 you have to spend here is negligible and likely won't make a difference one way or the other, but the 15k+ you can potentially win could propel you to a huge cash

 

[dj11]

I don't see 9-1 odds, unless I've gone brain dead (real possibility!) I see something a bit better than 4-1. Pot is 4300 and its your turn to limp ($1000).

You are mid stacked (at this table only, unknown in the big picture), and it is late in this tourney (level 11). You are in the CO seat.

There are those who love connectors, and with no raises, playing 54o is not so far off base. Gus Hansen would play these, so might Daniel.

Tho I normally would fold these, if I had a read on the table it is not so bad a limp. Part of that read of course would have to include the probability that none to act after me would be raising.

In case I have gone brain dead, please try to explain to me where you got this as 9-1......

 

[jaketrevvor]

I think you're viewing the table the wrong way wrong dj...

Alon Ipser: posts small blind 500

also glad to see that you and mr negreanu are on first name terms

 

[dj11]

Thanks for kick starting my brain cell JT.

Then, just to make the point I did this;

PokerStars Game #15856114128: Tournament #77206788, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/03/09 - 13:33:31 (ET)
Table '77206788 3' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: 1bourbon1 (1770 in chips)
Seat 2: txiago (1480 in chips)
Seat 3: Amador Ed (1520 in chips)
Seat 4: mac is b@ck (1470 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 5: dj13 (1470 in chips)
Seat 8: JJ Cricket (1290 in chips)
Seat 9: dakota-xx (1500 in chips)
JJ Cricket: posts small blind 10
dakota-xx: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dj13 [4c 5c]
1bourbon1: folds
txiago: folds
Amador Ed: folds
mac is b@ck: folds
dj13: raises 40 to 60
JJ Cricket: calls 50
txiago said, "first cardschat buy in tourney I play, so be gentle"
dakota-xx: folds
*** FLOP *** [3s 3c 5h]
JJ Cricket: checks
dj13: bets 80
JJ Cricket: folds
dj13 collected 140 from pot
dj13: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 140 | Rake 0
Board [3s 3c 5h]
Seat 1: 1bourbon1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: txiago folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Amador Ed folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: mac is b@ck folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: dj13 (button) collected (140)
Seat 8: JJ Cricket (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: dakota-xx (big blind) folded before Flop

My point would be it would be a one shot look with these cards. In this case I hit, and was willing. I miss badly here?, I'm gone!

 

[jaketrevvor]

^^^ this is analysis in action

 

[vanquish]

Thanks for kick starting my brain cell JT.

Then, just to make the point I did this;

PokerStars Game #15856114128: Tournament #77206788, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/03/09 - 13:33:31 (ET)
Table '77206788 3' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: 1bourbon1 (1770 in chips)
Seat 2: txiago (1480 in chips)
Seat 3: Amador Ed (1520 in chips)
Seat 4: mac is b@ck (1470 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 5: dj13 (1470 in chips)
Seat 8: JJ Cricket (1290 in chips)
Seat 9: dakota-xx (1500 in chips)
JJ Cricket: posts small blind 10
dakota-xx: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dj13 [4c 5c]
1bourbon1: folds
txiago: folds
Amador Ed: folds
mac is b@ck: folds
dj13: raises 40 to 60
JJ Cricket: calls 50
txiago said, "first cardschat buy in tourney I play, so be gentle"
dakota-xx: folds
*** FLOP *** [3s 3c 5h]
JJ Cricket: checks
dj13: bets 80
JJ Cricket: folds
dj13 collected 140 from pot
dj13: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 140 | Rake 0
Board [3s 3c 5h]
Seat 1: 1bourbon1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: txiago folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Amador Ed folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: mac is b@ck folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: dj13 (button) collected (140)
Seat 8: JJ Cricket (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: dakota-xx (big blind) folded before Flop

My point would be it would be a one shot look with these cards. In this case I hit, and was willing. I miss badly here?, I'm gone!

maybe you should post the HH where you shoved 54s with 0 fold equity against my overpair and pulled cards out of your ass to win that one time

 

[dj11]

Try to put me on a range, just try! :laugh::bootyshak

 

[vanquish]

Try to put me on a range, just try! :laugh::bootyshak

theres no point in trying to put you on a range because you have no fold equity and youre pushing into a hand thats calling regardless of what you have

 

[blankoblanco]

fwiw, you can't put a blind man playing poker without assistance on a range either

 

[KyleJRM]

Check your tracker stats on hands like these, guys. They are money-losers. They will bleed you over time, and you'll lose big as often as you win big.

 

[CfPoker]

My take on it...

Throw it away. Look at the flops you want:
A23
236
367
678 (dangerous)
445
554
444
555

Anything else won't really cut it. 2P can get counterfeited (as happened to me last night with this exact hand, had to throw my hand away on the river having lost quite a few chips to get there), and a pair won't cut it either. The fact that you're out of position just makes matters even worse. Yeah, you have 1 in 9 odds, but you aren't going to hit one of those flops 1 in 9 times, and the times you hit something you're probably going to have to fold/lose money.

 

[ineff420]

Do what you do... Go all-in heck idc

 

[blankoblanco]

guys, you don't have to hit the flop 1 in 9 times. not even anywhere remotely close to that. the fact that we're getting such awesome direct odds is just a huge bonus. has nobody here every heard of implied odds?

yes 2p can get counterfeited, just like AA can get cracked. yes if we flop 678, someone else COULD have T9, just like if we flop a set with a pp someone else could have a higher set. it's an MTT. you take calculated risks to accumulate chips, you don't wait for the nuts. if we hit two pair and get counterfeited, um so what, we got chips in as a 75% favorite or whatever. that's the idea

 

[KyleJRM]

The implied odds are even worse, because again, you are going to be caught in a lot of situations where if two players hit, you are going to be behind, and if you are the only one that hits, you wont be getting paid.

Again, check your tracker stats. This hand is a loser long-term. A slow bleed for uncertain potential gains.

 

[jaketrevvor]

KyleJRM et al there's a lot of "ifs" in the point you are trying to make - statistical long run dont need no ifs!

combu knows what's up.