#### Sammyv1

##### Legend

**Silver Level**

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First, estimate percentage of pot you need to pay to call. Example: $9 in pot, $1 to call, your $1 call is 10% of the total pot.

Then, count your outs and double it. This is your percentage chance of making your hand on the next card.

Compare the two. If your chances of winning are bigger than the money you are putting in the pot to call, then you call. Otherwise you fold.

Here's an example hand from limit hold'em:

A64 all diamonds on board, you have the King of diamonds and 9 of clubs. (I guess you must have been in the blind!) You have 9 outs, because any of the 9 diamonds left will give you the nut flush, about an 18% chance.

18% is better than 10% so you have an easy call on the turn.

Suppose the turn is a blank. Now there's $13 in the pot and it will cost you $2 for you to see the river. Without a calculator, that's still less than 15%.

I've still got my 9 outs, so my chances of winning are still about 18%. So I call again. I'm not going to get rich quick with this small edge, but casinos are built on smaller margins.

The best thing of all is, people will mutter about "chasing" and "lucky" when the D hits on the river

That's pot odds.

P.s. if you reckon you are going to win extra bets if you make your hand but fold if you don't, you can have fun estimating "implied odds", but that's one for another day!

THANKS FOR YOUR HELP GUYS!!!!!!

CALLING A BET AFTER THE FLOP OUTS CHANCE OF FILLING

Gut Shot or inside straight draw 4 16.5% or 1:5 +/-

Open Ended Straight 8 31.5% or 2:1 +/-

Flush 9 35% or 2:1 +/-

Straight Flush Draw 15 54.1% or 1:1 +/-

THE RULE OF 4, Another Trick.

For quick approximate determination of all other scenerios take the number of outs you have with 2 cards to come and multiply that number by 4 to get your percentage chance of filling your draw. The results are surprisingly accurate. They do start to drift a bit after 10 outs.

example 3 outs x 4 = 12% or 7:1 the actual percentage is 12.5%

7 outs x 4 = 28% or 2 1/2:1 the actual percentage is 27.8%

This also works well with 1 card to come, but then you must multiply your outs by 2 instead of 4.

One final trick.

When your fixing the odds for an opponent.

A bet of 1/2 the pot gives your opponent 1 1/2:1 odds

A bet of the entire pot gives your opponent 2:1 odds

A bet of 1/3 the pot gives your opponent 4:1 pot odds

A bet of 2/3 the pot gives your opponent 2-1/2:1 odds

A bet of 3/4 the pot gives your opponent 2-1/3:1 odds

A bet of 3/4 the pot gives your opponent 2-1/3:1 odds

A bet of 1/4 the pot gives your opponent 5:1 odds

Don't bother trying to cut it too close when fixing the odds. Just remember, gamblers are opptimistic and are more inclined to call with marginally unfavorable odds than to fold. And Please, no bad beat stories when then the draw out on you.

Sorry to say Dog but in some way you´re wrong. The rule of 4 should just be called "the rule of 2". I agree that if you multiply your outs by 4 with 2 cards to come, you will get the "real odds" of making your hand. Maybe that can be consider as truth, but it´s useless at the moment of calculating pot odds.Four Dogs said:THE RULE OF 4, Another Trick.

For quick approximate determination of all other scenerios take the number of outs you have with 2 cards to come and multiply that number by 4 to get your percentage chance of filling your draw. The results are surprisingly accurate. They do start to drift a bit after 10 outs.

example 3 outs x 4 = 12% or 7:1 the actual percentage is 12.5%

7 outs x 4 = 28% or 2 1/2:1 the actual percentage is 27.8%

This also works well with 1 card to come, but then you must multiply your outs by 2 instead of 4.

After the flop, if you´re using the rule of four, you´re adding up the turn and river odds of making your hand. But that is not how it works. You

It´s the same in poker. The first toss is the turn and the second is the river.

Now let´s take this into a poker situation:

You have K J and the flop comes 2 Q 9.

You think that there are two cards that make your hand winner: the 10 (giving you the straight) and the K.

You have 7 outs (four 10s and three Ks)

The pot size is $4 and there is a bet of $1.

According to Crumble´s tip to calculate the percentage of the pot, it would be 20% (1 is 20% of the total pot of 5)

Now according to the rule of 4, you multiply 7 by 4 and you get 28% of making your hand.

28% is higher than 20%, so it´s a right call?

The answer is no. Why? Because that 28% doesn´t have to be there. That 28% represent the add up of the turn odds and the river odds, and for calculating pot odds you don´t have to do that.

Let´s do it right:

It´s just so simple like changing the 4 by 2. You multiply 7 outs by 2, and that´s 14%.

Now you compare your hand odds and the percentage of the pot.

14% is less than 20%. So you should´t call.

If you see, my example it´s the same as Crumble´s. Maybe FourDogs you didn´t realize that he also multiplied the outs by 2 after the flop instead of multiplying them by 4.

Do you understand now why the total odds (adding up the turn and river) are totally useless? If you didn´t understand the coin flip analogy, i can tell you in few words why in you musn´t calculate the total odds and you must calculate each card for separated:

The reason is simple: you don´t know how much is going to be the bet after the turn.

In the same exaple as before, let´s say you called the $1 bet and the turn is a 4. This card doesn´t help you. Now the player bets $1.50 making a pot of $6.50. You have to call $1.50 to win a total pot of $7.50.

You calculate the percentage: $1.50 is the 20% of $7.50

The same situation as before, but now the price is too high for you, because the 20% is higher than your 14% (7 outs x 2).

So remember,

And as far as "never" use the rule of 4 - that goes against any pros info I've ever read. You use the rule of 4 on the turn and the rule of 2 on the river - or so I've read.

And yes, there are charts online... just search "pot odds chart" on google or ?? and you'll find some to print out or look at.

Who´s the pro here? Phil Gordon, Clonie Gowen or me?... lolMicheleW said:

And as far as "never" use the rule of 4 - that goes against any pros info I've ever read. You use the rule of 4 on the turn and the rule of 2 on the river - or so I've read.

And yes, there are charts online... just search "pot odds chart" on google or ?? and you'll find some to print out or look at.

I didn´t say "never use the rule of 4". There is a tricky thing there, i said: "never use the rule of 4 to calculate your pot odds".

That changes pretty much not?

You have to use the rule of 4 when you want to know your hand odds as a total, but if you want to calculate the pot odds, the thing changes. I hope the reason of why it changes i gave you on my last post were clear, if not, please tell me.

Sorry Jesus, I didn't invent the rule of 4. It is a formula that works quite well with 2 cards to come. It WILL give you a very good idea of your chances of picking up your out card after the flop. Not on the next card. The Rule of 4 is for Poker, not coins. Here's the math. Lets say your on an open ended straight draw. There are 8 cards left in the deck that can help you. Outs. On the next card, the Turn, you have an 8/47 chance of a pickup = 17% or .1702. You have an 83% chance of missing or .8298. This is the important number. Assuming You do miss, your chance of the pick-up on the river is now slightly greater. .1739. But once again, we work with the chance of missing, not hitting which is .8261.Jesus Lederer said:So remember,neveruse the rule of 4 after the flop to calculate your pot odds.

So .8298x.8261=.6855 is the chance of not filling your outs with 2 cards to come. 1-.6855=.3145 is your chance of catching your dream card. Thats about 31%. Remember the rule of 4? Number of outs 8, multiplied by the magic number 4 = 32%. Pretty darn close.

But that's not the end of the story. There's another step which for the sake of brevity, and because it seemed to obvious to bother with. Lets look at our straight draw again, assuming you don't question my math. You have a 31% chance of filling the out after the flop, by the numbers. A 32% chance using the rule of 4. For the sake of ease, lets just call it 33%. That means there's a 66% of missing right? 2:1. Pot Odds. Done! Unless your trapping with a flush, you don't want to give your opponent better odds than that to call. A bet of slightly larger than the pot will play on his optimism while, in the long run, turning you a profit.

Here's where you made your mistake with your funny coin. In your analogy you added your 2 chances thus arriving at a 100% chance of getting heads. It's bad math. Pot or coin odds are calculated by multiplying one chance against the next not adding them. Your coin has a 75% chance of turning heads with 2 tries.

ANYONE ELSE WANT A PIECE OF ME!

Doggy, doggy, doggy...where can i start....ok, let´s go:Four Dogs said:Sorry Jesus, I didn't invent the rule of 4. It is a formula that works quite well with 2 cards to come. It WILL give you a very good idea of your chances of picking up your out card after the flop. Not on the next card. The Rule of 4 is for Poker, not coins. Here's the math. Lets say your on an open ended straight draw. There are 8 cards left in the deck that can help you. Outs. On the next card, the Turn, you have an 8/47 chance of a pickup = 17% or .1702. You have an 83% chance of missing or .8298. This is the important number. Assuming You do miss, your chance of the pick-up on the river is now slightly greater. .1739. But once again, we work with the chance of missing, not hitting which is .8261.

So .8298x.8261=.6855 is the chance of not filling your outs with 2 cards to come. 1-.6855=.3145 is your chance of catching your dream card. Thats about 31%. Remember the rule of 4? Number of outs 8, multiplied by the magic number 4 = 32%. Pretty darn close.

But that's not the end of the story. There's another step which for the sake of brevity, and because it seemed to obvious to bother with. Lets look at our straight draw again, assuming you don't question my math. You have a 31% chance of filling the out after the flop, by the numbers. A 32% chance using the rule of 4. For the sake of ease, lets just call it 33%. That means there's a 66% of missing right? 2:1. Pot Odds. Done! Unless your trapping with a flush, you don't want to give your opponent better odds than that to call. A bet of slightly larger than the pot will play on his optimism while, in the long run, turning you a profit.

Here's where you made your mistake with your funny coin. In your analogy you added your 2 chances thus arriving at a 100% chance of getting heads. It's bad math. Pot or coin odds are calculated by multiplying one chance against the next not adding them. Your coin has a 75% chance of turning heads with 2 tries.

ANYONE ELSE WANT A PIECE OF ME!

I know you didn´t invented the rule of 4. Clonie Gowen told it on a mail and Phil Gordon told it chatting on FTP. I know that the formula works quite well with 2 cards to come. I know that it will give you a very good idea of your chances of picking up your out card after the flop. Not on the next card. I know all that. Actually, i use that rule. But when do i use it? When i want a general idea of where i´m standing on the hand. For example, it helps to know that if i have an inside straight draw i probably don´t have to chase it, because 4 x 4 = 16% and that´s very low, but if i have a flush

draw with two overcards probably i should be raising, because 15 x 4 = 60%, and that´s very high.

That rule works pretty well to calculate the total hand odds. And it´s very useful.

But where it´s useless? When you are calculating the pot odds. Why?...i already said the reason, but i´m going to repeat it until you finally understand it.

To calculate pot odds you need a pot and a bet. And that factors are variable. The only case where you should use the rule of 4 after the flop to calculate pot odds is if you know that on the turn your opponent will check. But if not, you don´t know how much is he gonna be the bet, so that´s why you must calculate the pot odds on each card, not both at the same time. The right odds you can calculate with the rule of 4, but the pot odds no.

You can calculate the turn and river odds of making your hand, but you can´t calculate the pot odds in advance if you don´t know what the bet is going to be.

If you don´t believe, search for information or ask to a pro (you play at FTP) is your pot odds for catching a flush should be 2:1 as you say or 4:1 as i say. I´m 100% sure that they are going to say you that if you have a flush draw after the flop, your pot odds are 4:1. If you call with a flush draw after the flop with 2:1, in the long run you aren´t going to have a profit.

Remember: you should use the rule of 4 after the flop to calculate your pot odds

Look at this example:

You hold: flush draw

Flop: $10 Pot + $10 bet

You call: $10 (getting 2 to 1 odds)

Turn: $30 pot + $10 bet

You call: $10 (getting 4 to 1 odds)

If you are right Dogs that play should make you a profit in the long run (i chose 100 hands to make it more exact).

Let´s see if you are right:

Cost to play = 100 Hands x ($10 flop call + $10 turn call) = $2,000

Total won = 100 hands x 35% chance to win x $50 pot = $1,750

You paid $2000 to win $1750....a profit? I don´t think so.

Now let´s play as i say:

You hold: flush draw

Flop: $30 pot + $10 bet

You call: $10 (getting 4 to 1 odds)

Turn: $50 pot + $16 bet

You call: $16 (getting about 4 to 1 odds)

Again let´s see in the long run of 100 hands:

Cost to play = 100 hands x ($10 flop call + $16 turn call) = $2,600

Total won = 100 hands x 35% chance to win * $82 pot = $2,870

You paid $2600 to win $2870.....a profit? Of course.

If you realize on the first example i used 2:1 pot odds because i used the rule of 4, but in my second example, where it exist a profit, i just multiplied the outs by 2 (after the flop).

Again, if you calculate the pot odds using the rule of 4 after the flop, you´re assuming that there will not be a bet on the turn.

Now let´s go with the funny coin: I know it´s bad math to add the two 50% to make a 100%. I told it was bad math. Why i told that? Because even if you don´t believe that analogy works to explain the same thing of pot odds that i explained before. If you use the rule of 4 to calculate pot odds after the flop, you´re adding up the turn and river odds. And as i said before, unless it´s going to be a certain check on the turn, adding the turn and river is incorrect. I also know that the coin has really 75% of getting head at least one time. 1 - (1/2 x 1/2) = 1 - (1/4) = 3/4 = 75%.

Here in chile the schools are bad, but at least i know something of probabilities.

Now, ANYONE ELSE WANT A PIECE OF ME! lol

Don't worry Diablo, I still hate you too.

X

X

Now Michele made a critical point these numbers mean absolutely nothing if you do not properly apply them to the game. I personally don't take the numbers to the percentage stage I leave em in raw odds form to compare them. If you are more comfortable with percentages they work as well, simply a different way of expressing the same concept. I'll actively monitor this thread to try and keep it on track. Remember words are extremely important so try and make sure you have the correct terms. Please ask if you want or need a definition I left out!

X

1) The most obvious application is the forced

i understand what jesus is on about

-basically the rule of 4 gives the odds of hitting your hand by the**river** when calculated post-flop

if you're trying to figure out your pot odds and your odds of hitting your hand after the flop,

for your odds of hitting you're hand** in this situation**, you can't use the rule of 4 because it doesn't assume that your opponent will bet next hand, and at such a time you will have to recalculate you're odds of hitting again

but if you're using the rule of 4 after the turn, you're only calculating for 1 more card, and don't have to worry about a bet after that since it's the last

that's my take on it at least

didn't see that post

LOL ignore my last one then!

-basically the rule of 4 gives the odds of hitting your hand by the

if you're trying to figure out your pot odds and your odds of hitting your hand after the flop,

for your odds of hitting you're hand

but if you're using the rule of 4 after the turn, you're only calculating for 1 more card, and don't have to worry about a bet after that since it's the last

that's my take on it at least

oopsFour Dogs said:nextcard. Well, I wouldn't go so far as to call it useless, but technically he's correct. Its variation, the Rule of 2, is equally convenient for that purpose. But lets not dismiss the big brother. There are several common situations where you need to figure your pot odds with 2 cards to come. Here are some examples.

1) The most obvious application is the forcedAll-In. Are the pot odds favorable? Remember, once you call, your opponent can't make you bet again. 2) This is my favorite! When the 1st bet will leave you short stacked, it is often the case that when you miss your draw, your opponent will no longer be able to raise enough to make a final call unproffitable. You may in fact get far better odds than you need to see the river. This should be taken into account on your previous bet. Unless your playing with Chris Ferguson it's unlikely that your opponent considered this. 3) YourImplied Pot Odds, a more abstract concept which XDMANX touched upon, justify the 2 combined bets. Implied odds are tough to figure. There's no cute math trick for this. It's really more of aconfidence levelthat, when you draw out, the future size of the pot will justify your first 2 bets. In short, when you hit, your gonnarake it in!How the heck are you supposed to know that? Good 'ol poker instincts, my greatest failing.

didn't see that post

LOL ignore my last one then!

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